Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil product inventories increased slightly [5]. - The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude [5]. - The production of the Kurdish oil field was attacked, with about 200,000 barrels per day at risk of interruption. From a fundamental perspective, global oil product inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased [5]. - Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the European diesel crack spread led the profit growth at the product end. After the Independence Day, US gasoline demand dropped significantly, and the global gasoline crack spread has been fluctuating recently [5]. - This week, global refinery profits strengthened month - on - month, and the product end remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened month - on - month, with limited room to further boost operations [5]. - During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil monthly structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently [5]. - In the medium term, absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and near - term diesel inventories [5]. 3. Section Summaries a. Daily News - The US government is considering providing limited authorization to foreign oil partners of PDVSA, including Chevron [3]. - Trade progress and strong demand have boosted oil prices. The tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and the EU have made progress, alleviating market concerns about the global economic outlook. Strong US summer fuel demand and geopolitical tensions also support oil prices [4]. - Iran's deputy foreign minister said that to resume nuclear negotiations with the US, it is necessary to build mutual trust, recognize Tehran's nuclear rights, and ensure non - aggression against Iran [4]. - The Russian Federal Security Service has started issuing licenses to foreign oil tankers to enter Black Sea ports, paving the way for the resumption of Kazakh oil exports [4]. b. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day [4]. - In the week of July 18, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.75% [17]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.576 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.01% [17]. - In the week of July 18, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a decrease of 0.05% [17]. - In the week of July 18, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day from the previous week [17]. c. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. In China, refinery output showed a decrease in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries declined month - on - month [5].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen due to progress in tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and the European Union, alleviating concerns about the global economic outlook [1] Group 1: Trade Developments - Recent trade dynamics have sparked investor optimism, with expectations that the U.S. may reach agreements with more trading partners before the August 1 deadline [1] Group 2: Demand and Geopolitical Factors - Strong signs of summer fuel demand in the U.S. and unresolved geopolitical tensions are providing additional support for oil prices [1]

6月16日盘中，燃料油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3276.00元。截止发稿，燃料油主力 合约报3260.00元，涨幅2.87%。 由于现货市场需求疲软导致船用燃料现金价差收窄，同时新加坡商用燃料油库存攀升至七周高位，亚洲 低硫燃料油市场结构小幅走弱；新加坡380CST高硫燃料油现货溢价为8.16美元/吨，较前一日13.04美元/ 吨下跌，主要因P66和托克在现货交易窗口报出竞争性卖盘。预期：周末中东地缘局势继续恶化，伊以 双方继续攻击，短期地缘情绪高涨，燃油整体偏强运行。FU2509：3250-3350区间偏强运行，LU2508： 3800-3900区间偏强运行。 燃料油期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 以色列伊朗冲突尚未结束；俄乌双方计划在6月22日后再度开启和谈，地缘风险延续；OPEC+增产仍在 推进；美国商业原油库存降幅超预期；美国夏季出行高峰来临，燃油需求持续提振；油价支撑较坚挺。 国内供需方面，滨州炼厂继续检修，低硫渣油周度供应量处中低位；终端航运市场沿海散货商谈氛围偏 弱，运价稳中小幅走跌，船加油需求冷清；亚洲燃料油供需格局变化不大，新加坡和国内保税船供油价 ...