Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting a reliable fund manager over focusing on flashy fund names, highlighting the manager's experience and stability as key factors in investment success [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Selection Criteria - The first criterion for selecting a fund manager is their experience, particularly having navigated through a complete market cycle, as those who have not experienced significant market downturns may panic and make poor decisions [3]. - The second criterion is the stability of the manager's investment style, as consistent strategies are crucial; managers who frequently shift between growth and value investing may encounter issues [3]. - The third criterion involves the alignment of the manager's words and actions, where investors should verify if the manager's stated investment logic matches their actual portfolio holdings, avoiding those who focus solely on short-term performance [3]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The article advocates for a long-term investment approach, suggesting that finding a fund manager is akin to choosing a travel companion, where reliability and expertise are more valuable than mere rhetoric [3]. - It notes that many fund managers may experience short-term success but emphasizes that those who are steady and knowledgeable tend to be the true long-term winners in the investment landscape [3].

2022 年 11 月 28 号：我发推说是底部，评论区大部分人不信，3 年后，2025 年 10 月 6 号：我发推说是顶部，评论区大部分人不信。 https://t.co/kprR7w0Xne杀破狼 WolfyXBT (@Wolfy_XBT):分享个 $BTC 牛熊周期图，这个图的思路源自于之前推特上刷到的一张图，当时印象非常深刻也觉得画得很合理，但后来找不回那张图了，也忘了是哪个博主发的，我凭记忆重新画了一个差不多的，我本意是觉得思路很好想分享给大家，不是有意借鉴不标来源，我是真的忘了作者是谁，我找到了会马上 @ 在评论区！ https://t.co/ZT1CTxfc0h ...

Market Trend Analysis - Bitcoin is currently in a period of sideways trading during August-September, which are historically months of price decline [1] - Historically, October and November are months of price increase, with average gains of 13% in October and 41% in November [1] - The current bull market may have approximately 3 months remaining, suggesting a "fish tail" phase [1] Price Prediction - Bitcoin has broken through $120,000 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that different asset classes have their own inherent bull and bear market cycles, with varying durations [2][4][5] - The bull and bear market cycle for stocks typically lasts between 3 to 10 years, with shorter cycles of 3-5 years and longer cycles of 7-10 years [2] - Gold has experienced a significant bear market lasting 5 years from 2011 to 2016, which is longer than the historical longest bear market in A-shares [2] Group 2 - The real estate market has an even longer bull and bear market cycle, averaging 15-20 years [4] - The last real estate bear market bottomed in 2008, while the peak of the previous bull market occurred around 2018, marking the highest valuation for real estate industry stocks [4] - Since 2018, the real estate sector has entered a bear market that is still ongoing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation for families to optimize their wealth management and investment returns [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflation [1] - Diversification across various asset classes is highlighted as a key strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Companies that adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences are more likely to succeed in the long term [1] - The article discusses specific sectors that are expected to perform well, including technology and renewable energy, due to their growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of early investment learning and the necessity of enduring a seemingly "wasted" period of time, which can last for a decade or more, to truly understand the market dynamics and develop a solid investment framework [2][14]. Group 1: Investment Learning Process - Investors often need to experience at least two market bubbles to accumulate sufficient experience and abandon their speculative mindset, transitioning to rational trading based on asset value [6][12]. - The learning process in the stock market is heavily influenced by bull and bear cycles, which can span five to ten years, requiring investors to navigate through at least two complete cycles to "graduate" [6][14]. - The feedback in investment learning is often delayed, making it challenging for investors to see immediate results from their efforts, especially if they enter the market during a bear phase [6][14]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Psychology - Initial market experiences can lead to emotional reactions, with the first cycle often driven by instinct rather than learned behavior, while the second cycle tests whether investors have truly absorbed lessons and can manage their emotions [13][15]. - The article discusses how the timing of entering the market can significantly affect learning experiences, with those starting during favorable conditions potentially having a more straightforward learning curve compared to those entering during challenging periods [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Approaches - The concept of "light positions" during the initial learning phase is advocated to control trial-and-error costs and maintain psychological flexibility, allowing investors to view gains and losses from a broader perspective [15]. - The article suggests that the essence of investing is a game against oneself, and the first ten years should be viewed as a time for learning rather than immediate profit [15].