今年4月，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，核心CPI上涨0.5%。 同时PPI持续下降，且在4月同比降幅扩大。国家统计局数据显示，4月份PPI同比下降2.7%，降幅比上个 月扩大0.2个百分点。 这是PPI连续31个月为负，CPI连续25个月在0%附近波动。 5月19日，启铼研究院首席经济学家潘向东对和讯表示："核心CPI的上涨更具参考价值，这是毫无疑问 的，但是也需要看到4月份核心CPI的上涨的驱动原因，剔除能源和食品价格的影响，可以看到今年4月 主要是服务类价格对核心CPI的提升起到了主要的促进作用，比如五一假期前夕的机票价格等的推动作 用。但是结合五月的情况看，目前价格上涨仍然存在动力不足的情况，包括PPI的持续下降，这说明整 体的经济状况仍然处于相对低迷的态势。" 在《2025年第一季度货币政策执行报告》中央行也明确提出，"提振物价的关键在于扩大有效需求""价 格调控思路上，要从以前的管高价转向管低价"。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒表示："物价持续低迷对企业营收和利润、居民收入、政府税收和财力等 造成不利冲击，导致宏观数据与微观感受的背离，影响微观主体的预期和信心，拖慢经济恢复步伐，有 ...

Group 1: Current Price Trends - The GDP deflator index has been negative for 8 consecutive quarters, marking a historical high duration[16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 31 months, with a monthly average decline of 1.34 percentage points from coal, black metal, and non-metal industries[19] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to a growth center of 0.1%, significantly lower than the average growth of 2.6% from 2010 to 2019[30] Group 2: Contributing Factors to Price Decline - The real estate market has seen a significant change in supply-demand dynamics, with real estate investment growth negative for three consecutive years, impacting related industries[42] - Insufficient consumer demand has led to a decline in CPI, with the average consumption propensity dropping to 63.1% in Q1 2025, down from 65.2% in 2019[47] - "Involution" competition in emerging industries has caused prices to drop beyond reasonable levels, with lithium battery prices falling by 39.5% and solar module prices by 29.7% in 2024[52] Group 3: Impact of External Factors - The "tariff war" initiated by the U.S. has negatively impacted export demand, leading to increased domestic supply-demand imbalances and downward pressure on prices[63] - The average monthly increase in pork prices from April 2024 to April 2025 was only 11.3%, significantly lower than previous cycles, reducing its support for overall CPI[36] Group 4: Recommendations for Policy Action - There is a need for stronger macroeconomic regulation to promote reasonable price recovery, including policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize asset prices[63] - Supply-side reforms should focus on eliminating outdated production capacity and encouraging mergers and acquisitions to restore price levels[10]