Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the trend of the equity market; the price of alumina is expected to converge in a volatile manner; the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The global AI computing power construction is booming, and transformers have become a core "hot commodity". Chinese factories are operating at full capacity, and overseas orders are scheduled until 2027. AI computing power and UHV high - end products are becoming new engines for industrial growth [3] - Trump has nominated Wash to head the Federal Reserve. Wash advocates balance - sheet reduction, which creates policy tension with Trump's demand to lower borrowing costs. If Wash takes office, the coordination of his and Treasury Secretary Bessent's fiscal and monetary policies will be the key to reshaping the market trend [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,560, down 1,030 from T - 1; the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 3,136, down 94 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract and LME Aluminum 3M also showed corresponding changes [1] - **Market Spread and Arbitrage**: The LME Aluminum cash - 3M spread was - 26.66, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first inter - period arbitrage was - 10.27 [1] - **Enterprise Profit and Loss and Inventory**: The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 8,548.30, with a decrease of 197.59 from T - 1. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 800,000 tons, with no change from T - 1 [1] Alumina - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,768, down 48 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [1] - **Market Spread and Arbitrage**: The near - month to consecutive - first contract spread was - 131, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first inter - period arbitrage was 37.57 [1] - **Enterprise Profit and Loss and Price**: The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 167, and the average domestic alumina price decreased by 105 from T - 1 [1] Aluminum Alloy - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,820, down 1,030 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1] - **Market Spread and Spot Premium**: The near - month to consecutive - first contract spread was - 80, and the spot premium was - 40 [1] - **Enterprise Profit and Inventory**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 376, and the total inventory of three places was 41,438 [1] Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [3]

Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it offers trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Strongly bullish (2):** None - **Bullish (1):** Aluminum, industrial silicon, cotton - **Neutral (0):** Copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, polycrystalline silicon, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, power coal, paraxylene, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, PP, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European Line), staple fiber, bottle chip, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, peanut - **Bearish (-1):** Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rubber, LLDPE, caustic soda, offset printing paper, palm oil, soybean oil, eggs - **Strongly bearish (-2):** Pig Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their market trends, fundamental data, and macro and industry news. It suggests that investors should pay attention to the following factors when making investment decisions: - **Macroeconomic environment:** The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, the passage of the $1.2 trillion government spending bill by the US Senate, and the release of China's January official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data have all had an impact on the commodity market [5][8][13]. - **Industry supply and demand:** The report analyzes the supply and demand situation of each commodity, including production, inventory, and consumption. For example, the supply of copper is expected to be tight due to the suspension of production at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile and the reduction of production guidance by Lundin Mining [9]. - **Geopolitical risks:** The report also mentions the impact of geopolitical risks on the commodity market, such as the negotiation between the US and Iran and the potential shutdown of coal mines in Indonesia [7][23][53]. Summary by Section Metals - **Precious metals:** Gold and silver are releasing risks and falling from high levels, respectively. Platinum and palladium are also facing downward pressure due to the potential for panic selling and weak adjustment [2][5][20]. - **Base metals:** Copper is waiting for guidance and trading in a range, while zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel are all showing signs of consolidation. Stainless steel is expected to be supported by the expected reduction of nickel pig iron production in February [2][9][12][15][17][25][26]. Energy - **Coal:** Coking coal and coke are trading at high levels after a round of price increases, while power coal is in a weak supply-demand balance and is expected to trade in a narrow range before the Spring Festival [2][47][48][52]. - **Petroleum and its products:** Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG are all trading in a high-level range, while fuel oil is trading strongly and low-sulfur fuel oil is adjusting narrowly [2][54][109]. Chemicals - **Synthetic rubber:** Synthetic rubber is falling from high levels due to the weakening of macro sentiment and the approaching of valuation indicators to the boundary [2][66][68]. - **Plastics:** LLDPE is facing limited demand due to the narrowing of import profits, while PP is supported by the rising oil price [2][69][72]. - **Others:** Caustic soda is expected to be supported by cost factors and has strong future expectations, while pulp is trading in a wide range [2][75][79]. Agriculture - **Grains and oilseeds:** Palm oil and soybean oil are adjusting at high levels, while soybean meal and soybeans are trading in a range. Corn is expected to have a limited downward adjustment [2][134][139][142]. - **Sugar and cotton:** Sugar is trading weakly, while cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend [2][145][150]. - **Livestock and poultry:** Eggs are showing signs of weakness in the spot market, while pigs are facing increasing supply pressure before the Spring Festival [2][155][158]. Others - **Container shipping index (European Line):** The container shipping index (European Line) is trading in a range [2][111]. - **Offset printing paper:** Offset printing paper is recommended to hold short positions and conduct a 3-4 reverse spread [2][126].