电力 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 电力 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《电改持续深化，电力设备需求有望 延续高景气—电力行业 2026 春季策 略》-2026.2.22 《加快构建现代化基础设施体系，加 大核聚变技术攻关—可控核聚变行业 周报》-2025.12.29 ——行业投资策略 | 王高展（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070014 行业回顾：红利风格表现不佳，电力需求平稳增长 2025 年，A 股红利风格板块整体表现不佳。2025 年，电力需求维持平稳增长， 我国全社会用电 10.37 万亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.0%。预计十五五期间我国将呈 现"宽电量、紧电力"的电力供需格局，综合电价有望企稳。 电力：电价下探、补贴退坡，电力体制改革步入深水区 《TMTG 并购 ...

储能板块大跌点评：主要受锂矿停止出口情绪影响，实际成本传导和下游电站开工好于预期 储能板块大跌，主要受昨天津巴布韦暂停锂矿出口，影响板块情绪有关。 实际上我们认为成本传导、下游开工、包括项目收益都好于预期。 尤其是容量电价推出后财务模型将从#现金流、久期、融资利率三方面得以改善，带来的正面影响尚未被市场所认 知。 头部集成商、头部电池制造/储能开 储能板块大跌点评：主要受锂矿停止出口情绪影响，实际成本传导和下游电站开工好于预期 储能板块大跌，主要受昨天津巴布韦暂停锂矿出口，影响板块情绪有关。 实际上我们认为成本传导、下游开工、包括项目收益都好于预期。 尤其是容量电价推出后财务模型将从#现金流、久期、融资利率三方面得以改善，带来的正面影响尚未被市场所认 知。 头部集成商、头部电池制造/储能开发商反馈其电站项目开工进度影响小。 储能电池制造商反馈年后所有电池产线已满产。 1-2月份招标94GWh同比+120%，国央企集采大量启动，新疆等省份需求活跃；各省项目优选清单要求2026年底前 并网的容量达到320GWh。 价的方面，近期系统中标价稳定在0.53元/Wh以上，集采电芯价达到0.35元，相比去年0.42元的最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the energy storage sector [6] Core Insights - The investment in energy storage projects is returning to fundamental principles, focusing on capital IRR as a key metric for evaluating project value, with a threshold of 6.5% for good investment value [1][16] - The release of Document No. 114 has accelerated the alignment of profitability models for energy storage plants, shifting from a "strong allocation" to a market-driven economic model [14][15] Summary by Sections 1. Capital IRR Measurement - The capital IRR for energy storage projects is influenced by four core indicators: capacity price level, market arbitrage price difference, EPC costs, and lifespan of the storage station [2][17] - The basic scenario estimates a capital IRR of 5.5% under conservative assumptions, with potential increases based on variations in capacity pricing and market conditions [22][46] 2. Sensitivity Analysis - If the coal power capacity price is set at 330 CNY/kW·year, the capital IRR could reach 15.4% [23] - A 0.01 CNY/kWh increase in market arbitrage price can raise the project IRR by 1.4 percentage points, while a 0.1 increase in daily charge and discharge cycles can increase IRR by 4.4 percentage points [36][27] 3. Provincial Analysis - In 2025, provinces like Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Gansu are projected to have capital IRR above 6.5% due to favorable market conditions [4][49] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor monthly changes in electricity market price differences and the pricing of coal power capacity in various provinces [4][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the installed capacity of large-scale energy storage in 2026/2027 is a critical variable for lithium battery demand, with ongoing observation needed on capacity pricing, project lists, and market price changes [4][5] - The domestic energy storage industry is entering a healthy development phase, benefiting leading companies such as CATL, Sungrow, EVE Energy, and Haibo [4][5]

马年春节之际，河西走廊上的张掖市依旧寒意料峭。记者走出甘州机场，疾驰在通往山丹县的高速公路上，窗外的风景已悄然蜕变，曾经被风沙刻下贫瘠 印记的戈壁滩，如今遍地是光伏板阵列；风机叶片在风中划着重复的弧线，却成为这片土地上最引人注目的风景。 与亲人围炉闲谈时，一条消息引起记者高度关注：若巴丹吉林沙漠（张掖）基地项目成功纳入国家规划，它将成为首个以张掖为主要输出端的特高压外送 通道，使张掖从"能源通道"跃升为"能源起点"，在"一带一路"绿色能源合作中扮演枢纽角色。届时，这里不仅会崛起一条千亿级新能源产业集群，其"多 能互补+柔性输电"的创新模式，更会为全国沙漠、戈壁地区的新能源开发提供可复制的"张掖样板"。 1501号文 VS 114号文 "1月份的114号文还没忙完，2月份关于全国统一电力市场体系建设的利好又公布了，我最近一直忙着向那些春节期间还咨询备案储能电站的企业解释情 况。虽然国家政策利好，但只能抱歉地告诉他们，张掖真不能新增项目备案了。2023年至2024年已经备案了很多项目，2025年储能赛道突然火爆，前期备 案的多个项目要么已建成，要么还在建。现在我们真正忙的是督促在建项目尽快完工，并保证让它们成功并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System," emphasizing the establishment of a capacity market to support the construction of reliable regulating power sources [1] Group 1: Capacity Market Development - The implementation plan proposes to enhance the capacity price mechanism for coal power, pumped storage, and new energy storage resources [1] - It suggests researching compensation for reliable capacity in the power system based on unified standards [1] - The plan supports regions with conditions to explore capacity pricing through competitive bidding, ensuring long-term reliability of system capacity [1] Group 2: Sustainable Development and Supply Security - The initiative aims to ensure the sustainable development of coal power and other supporting regulating power sources [1] - It emphasizes improving the ability to guarantee supply, particularly in critical situations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Stockpiling is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Apparent demand is weakening month - on - month, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels [2][17]. - Thermal coal: Coal prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][21]. - Logs: Port arrivals are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [2][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-1.04%); the position decreased by 10,368 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3; some real - estate companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,077 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.65%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,251 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.43%) [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of February 5th, rebar production decreased by 8.15 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.05 tons; total inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased. In late January 2026, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, etc. [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 was 5634 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton; the closing price of silicomanganese 2603 was 5816 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The two - department will increase the proportion of coal - fired power generation units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity prices; steel mills' ferrosilicon procurement prices and quantities changed; electricity prices in some regions changed; UMK's March manganese ore quotation increased [13][14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1138.5 yuan/ton, down 33.5 yuan/ton (-2.9%); the closing price of J2605 was 1698.5 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan/ton (-2.3%) [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 6th, the CCI metallurgical coal index remained unchanged; the coking coal online auction had a 2% failure rate, and the demand was weakening [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 was 567 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 695 yuan/ton [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 6th, the port market continued to rise steadily; the Indonesian government's coal production plan was uncertain; the Indonesian coal association worried that production cuts would lead to mine closures [22]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 784, down 2.2%; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 788, down 1.2%. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, and a few increased slightly [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3; some real - estate companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [26].

Core Viewpoint - The large-scale investment in independent energy storage has officially begun, driven by the recognition of storage capacity value in the national pricing mechanism, marking a significant breakthrough in economic viability and asset securitization for independent storage stations [3][5]. Group 1: Policy Developments - On January 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice that includes independent storage in the generation-side capacity pricing mechanism, enhancing the revenue certainty of independent storage assets [3]. - The 136 Document has removed mandatory storage requirements, allowing market-driven decisions regarding storage, and has established independent storage as a market entity capable of generating revenue through multiple channels [4][5]. - The 114 Document further optimizes the capacity pricing mechanism, aligning storage capacity pricing with coal power, thus recognizing independent storage's capacity value for the first time [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In 2025, independent storage installations reached a record high of 62.24 GW/183 GWh, with independent storage accounting for 35.43 GW, or 56.6% of the total new installations, indicating a shift from policy-driven to value-driven growth in the storage industry [4]. - The introduction of capacity pricing and asset securitization is expected to drive large-scale development of independent storage by 2026, as these mechanisms provide a stable revenue foundation and open funding channels [3][6]. Group 3: Asset Securitization - The first asset-backed security (ABS) for independent storage was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking a significant step towards the standardization of independent storage in financial markets [7]. - The successful issuance of this ABS could transform the investment logic and valuation paradigm for storage, shifting from reliance on policy subsidies to a model anchored in long-term operational revenue [7][9]. - The acceleration of asset securitization in the renewable energy sector, including independent storage, is seen as a solution to the industry's challenges related to heavy assets and long investment cycles [8]. Group 4: Global Investment Trends - Global capital is increasingly seeking stable, tangible assets, with independent storage being likened to real estate in the AI era due to its strong demand and revenue certainty [10][12]. - Major investment firms are ramping up their investments in renewable energy projects, with a focus on energy, grid, and infrastructure assets, as these are viewed as low-risk and high-return opportunities [11][13]. - The trend of capital influx into independent storage is expected to accelerate in 2026, driven by both domestic and international investments, further solidifying its status as an income-generating infrastructure asset [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [1][10]. Core Insights - The report suggests that the long-term contract electricity prices for 2026 may be better than expected, with a projected nationwide decline in electricity prices of around 2 cents. If coal prices decrease compared to 2025, the profitability of power plants may remain stable or even improve, particularly for northern power plants [3][5]. - The report highlights that the performance of northern power plants is expected to be stronger, recommending a focus on these plants and undervalued national H-shares [3][5]. - The China Electricity Council forecasts that national electricity consumption will reach 10.37 trillion kWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, and an average annual growth of 6.6% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5]. - The report notes significant investments in ultra-high voltage projects, with a total fixed asset investment of 30.8 billion yuan in January 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the performance and valuation of hydropower and thermal power sectors, with companies like Qianyuan Power expected to see a net profit increase of 160-190% due to favorable water conditions [5]. Summary by Sections - **Electricity Price Outlook**: The report indicates that the long-term contract electricity prices for 2026 may not be overly pessimistic, with a potential nationwide price drop of about 2 cents. The profitability of power plants could remain stable or improve if coal prices decline [5]. - **Regional Performance**: Northern power plants are expected to perform better, and the report recommends focusing on these plants and undervalued national H-shares [3][5]. - **Electricity Demand Forecast**: The China Electricity Council predicts that national electricity consumption will reach 10.9-11 trillion kWh in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 5%-6% [5]. - **Investment in Infrastructure**: Significant investments in ultra-high voltage projects are noted, with a total investment of 30.8 billion yuan in January 2026, marking a 35.1% increase year-on-year [5]. - **Sector Performance Expectations**: The report anticipates a positive outlook for hydropower and thermal power sectors, with notable profit increases expected for several companies due to favorable conditions [5].

Market Overview - The market rebounded yesterday with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index both rising over 1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by over 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.54 trillion yuan, a decrease of 40.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 4,800 stocks in the market saw gains, indicating a rapid rotation of market hotspots [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a significant surge, with stocks like Jieli Rigging, Tongyu Communication, Shenjian Co., and Zhongchao Holdings hitting the daily limit [1] - The space photovoltaic concept continued to strengthen, with stocks such as Guosheng Technology, Jinjing Technology, Zerun New Energy, and Haiyou New Materials also reaching the daily limit [1] - The chemical sector was active, with Hongbaoli achieving two consecutive limits in three days and Wanfeng Co. hitting four consecutive limits [1] - The precious metals sector rebounded, with Hunan Gold achieving six limits in seven days [1] - The AI application concept remained active, with Zhejiang Wenhu Interconnection achieving five limits in eleven days [1] - The banking sector showed weakness, with China Bank experiencing fluctuations and declines [1] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the resilience of the funding environment remains, despite a decrease in trading sentiment and a drop in the number of active investors [2] - CITIC Securities highlighted that the capacity electricity price offers high revenue certainty, which is expected to significantly boost domestic energy storage installations [3] - CITIC Construction Investment stated that the global commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem construction, driven by companies like SpaceX [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the acceleration of the capacity market establishment, emphasizing investment opportunities in regulating resources [5][9] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which includes coal, natural gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage [5][6] - The report suggests that the capacity price for coal power will increase, while pumped storage will face differentiation pressure in the long term [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index is at 10,412.19, with a 52-week high of 11,060.52 and a low of 6,107.84 [2] Investment Highlights - The establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism is a transitional measure, which will be implemented after the continuous operation of the electricity spot market [7] - The compensation standard will be based on the fixed costs that cannot be recovered in the energy and ancillary services markets [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in energy storage, such as Haibo Shichuang, and gas power companies like Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric [9]