华润电力 20250825 摘要 华润电力上半年营业额同比下降 1.7%至 502.7 亿港币，股东应占利润 同比下降 15.9%至 78.7 亿港币，但剔除一次性损益后，核心利润同比 增长 0.1%至 82.78 亿港币。经营性现金流入同比增长 36.1%至 141.2 亿港币。 上半年风电售电量同比增长 15.5%至 259 亿千瓦时，光伏售电量同比 增长 31.3%至 41 亿千瓦时，可再生能源市场化交易电量占比达到 50.8%，同比上升 11.9 个百分点，而附属燃煤电厂售电量同比下降 1.3%至 704 亿千瓦时。 华润电力预计全年容量电价收入将达 40 亿至 45 亿元，目前大部分地区 执行每千瓦 100 元标准，明年将统一执行 165 元每千瓦，部分省份甚 至可能达到 330 元，这将显著提升明年的容量电费收入。 2025 年上半年，华润电力的弃风弃光率约为 6%，公司通过加强电力营 销、利用储能系统、提升调峰调频能力等措施来降低这一比例，同时政 府和电网也在积极配合。 Q&A 华润电力在 2025 年上半年的业绩表现如何？ 截至 2025 年 6 月底，华润电力的权益并网装机容量达到 78.1 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The profitability of thermal power assets in Guangdong is differentiated under low electricity prices, with significant regional disparities in electricity demand affecting node prices [1][10] - High-efficiency coal power units are expected to perform better in profitability compared to lower capacity units, with 1 million kW units showing net profits above 0.01 yuan/KWh [2][30] - The average electricity price in Guangdong is expected to remain stable, with limited downward potential, while capacity prices are anticipated to increase, enhancing profitability for coal power units [3][51] Summary by Sections Current Situation: Profitability Differentiation of Thermal Power Assets - Regional differences in electricity demand lead to varying node prices across Guangdong, with the Pearl River Delta region experiencing higher prices compared to other areas [1][15] - Different capacity levels of coal power units exhibit significant differences in profitability, with 1 million kW units showing the best performance [2][30] - Gas power units face greater profitability pressure due to higher fuel costs and lower utilization hours compared to coal units [2][32] Outlook: Stable Electricity Price Expectations - The annual long-term electricity price in Guangdong is nearing its bottom, with limited room for decline, as the average transaction price for 2025 is projected at 0.392 yuan/KWh [3][51] - Capacity price adjustments are expected to positively impact the profitability of coal power units starting in 2026 [3][51] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-capacity coal power units in Guangdong, as they are expected to maintain better profitability under the current low electricity price environment [4][30] - Recommended stocks include Baoneng New Energy, China Resources Power (H shares), Guangdong Power A, Guangzhou Development, Shenzhen Energy, and Suihengyun A [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The recent rebound in market coal prices, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal price rising from 609 RMB/ton in early June to 698 RMB/ton by August 15, indicates that coal power profitability is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year. Long-term, there is significant potential for stability in coal power profitability with the expected increase in capacity electricity prices in 2026 and beyond [2][5] - The company reported a revenue of 11.113 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 899 million RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 157.96% [5] - The company plans to raise up to 2 billion RMB through a private placement to fund the construction of the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV project, which will add significant coal power capacity [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.538 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%, and a net profit of 453 million RMB, representing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 374.71% [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 23.40% and 11.82%, respectively, showing increases of 9.58 percentage points and 8.41 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 47.138 billion RMB in 2024 to 56.123 billion RMB by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7] Future Profitability Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.403 billion RMB, 1.545 billion RMB, and 1.672 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.6, 8.7, and 8.1 [5][6]

Group 1 - The company benefits from the decline in coal prices, leading to significant growth in profitability, with a net profit of RMB 95.78 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.19% [1] - The company's operating revenue for H1 2025 was RMB 1,120.32 billion, a decrease of 5.70% year-on-year, while the return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 7.08%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The reduction in coal costs has enhanced the profit elasticity of thermal power generation, with the average coal price for power generation in H1 2025 at RMB 917.05 per ton, down 9.23% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its installed capacity, with a total controllable power generation capacity of 145,125 MW by the end of 2024, and a clean energy proportion of 35.82% [1] - New wind power and photovoltaic installations in 2024 are 2,646 MW and 6,772 MW respectively, contributing to a significant increase in power generation and revenue [1] - Wind power generation increased by 11% year-on-year, while photovoltaic generation surged by 49% in H1 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the renewable energy sector [1] Group 3 - The introduction of a capacity price mechanism in Gansu province is expected to stabilize profitability for thermal power companies, with a fixed capacity price of RMB 330 per kW per year [2] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 505 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, with H1 2025 cash flow at RMB 30.7 billion, a 30% increase [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.27 per share in 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.60% for A shares and 5.32% for H shares, enhancing investor confidence [2] Group 4 - The company is rated "Buy" for the first time, with projected net profits of RMB 130.46 billion, RMB 138.47 billion, and RMB 147.01 billion for 2025-2027 [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.0, 5.7, and 5.3 for 2025-2027, indicating attractive valuation [3] - The company's high dividend yield above 5% and significant asset value from dividends contribute to the positive investment outlook [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the public utility sector [8]. Core Views - The adjustment of capacity electricity prices in Guangdong and Gansu provinces is expected to enhance the profitability stability of thermal power and promote its transition to flexible adjustment power sources, reinforcing its role in the new power system [3][20]. - The energy supply and demand are relatively relaxed in the first half of 2025, with a rapid acceleration in green transformation, as renewable energy continues to dominate new installations [4][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Jiangsu Guoxin in the thermal power sector, cautiously recommends Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy Power, and suggests attention to Funiu Co. and Huadian International. In the nuclear power sector, it cautiously recommends China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power. For the green energy sector, it suggests attention to Three Gorges Energy and Jiangsu New Energy, with cautious recommendations for Longyuan Power, Zhejiang New Energy, and Zhonglv Electric. In the hydropower sector, it recommends Changjiang Power and cautiously recommends Huaneng Hydropower and Qianyuan Power, while suggesting attention to Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings [4]. 2. Industry Dynamics - On July 29, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in capacity electricity prices for coal and gas power units, with coal power capacity price adjusted to 165 yuan per kilowatt per year (including tax) starting January 1, 2026. The gas power price will be adjusted based on unit type starting August 1, 2025 [3][39]. - In Gansu, the initial standard for coal power capacity price is set at 330 yuan per kilowatt per year for two years, with a coverage ratio increase from 30% to 100% [20][21]. 3. Renewable Energy Developments - In the first half of 2025, renewable energy accounted for nearly 60% of the total installed capacity in China, with new installations reaching 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 99.3% [4][25]. - Renewable energy generation reached 1,799.3 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 39.7% of total generation, with wind and solar power generation increasing by 27.4% year-on-year [26][31].

行 业 研 究 2025 年 07 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 相关研究报告 《绿电消纳考核范围拓宽，有望持续 提升绿电环境溢价—行业投资策略》 -2025.7.14 《水电商业模式稳定，低利率时代价 值凸显—行业投资策略》-2025.5.31 《高耗能行业绿电消纳要求有望提振 绿 电 环 境 价 值 — 行 业 投 资 策 略 》 -2025.5.18 火电商业模式迎来拐点，盈利稳定性有望提高 ——行业投资策略 | 周磊（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | zhoulei1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524090002 | 证书编号：S0790125070014 | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070014 "十五五"期间或呈现全国"宽电量"、"紧电力"的供需格局 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 电力 沪深300 从电力供需平衡表来看，"十五五"期间或呈现全国电量（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The implementation of a capacity price mechanism in Gansu Province at 330 CNY/KW·year, with a 100% recovery of fixed costs, exceeds market expectations and the national guideline of a minimum 50% recovery starting in 2026 [4] - The report highlights a reversal for green power operators due to the release of three major constraints: consumption, pricing, and subsidies, leading to a stable pricing mechanism for sustainable development [4] - The overall electricity consumption in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.97 trillion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [13] - The cumulative power generation for the same period was 3.73 trillion kWh, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [20] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index decreased by 1.37% from July 14 to July 18, 2025, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [9] - Notable stock performances included Min Dong Power (+6.7%) and Jiufeng Energy (+5.5%) [12] 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption for January to May 2025 was 3.97 trillion kWh, up 3.4% year-on-year, with growth in all sectors [13] 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation for the same period was 3.73 trillion kWh, with fire power and water power showing declines of 3.1% and 2.5% respectively, while wind and solar power increased by 11.1% and 18.3% [20] 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in July 2025 was 382 CNY/MWh, down 3% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month [38] 2.4. Coal Prices - As of July 18, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 642 CNY/ton, down 24.11% year-on-year but up 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [43] 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 158.37 meters, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year declines of 46.15% and 58.25% respectively [54] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities in solar energy and charging stations, with specific recommendations for companies like Nanfang Energy and Longxin Co [4] - Recommendations for thermal power investments include companies like Jingtou Energy and Beijing Energy [4] - Hydropower is highlighted for its low cost and strong cash flow, with a recommendation for Changjiang Power [4] - Nuclear power is noted for its growth potential, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4] - Green energy is expected to see a recovery in asset quality, with recommendations for Longjing Environmental Protection and others [4]

风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 甘肃电力供应结构和系统压力事件与英国存在相似性，因此新能源有效容量系数假设相近。根据甘肃省容量电 价新政，风电、光伏机组的有效容量根据装机容量扣除厂用电后的 7%、1%确定，而 24/25 交付年英国容量市场 拍卖中，陆风和光伏的有效容量系数分别为 7.81%和 2.34%。 ◼ 从欧洲经验看，冬季极端天气对高可再生能源渗透率的电力系统的考验大于夏季极端天气事件。年内最大负荷 出现在夏季、新能源渗透率尚低的 PJM 市场，25/26 交付年的基本拍卖中，光伏有效容量系数平均约为 11.5%， 陆风、海风有效容量系数分别为 35%和 60%。但截至 24 年底，PJM 市场风电、光伏合计装机容量占比仅达 12.2%，属于低渗透率系统。参考海外实践经验和自然地理特征，可以推断甘肃新能源有效容量系数取值对北方 地区具备参考价值，而南方地区新能源合理有效容量系数或介于甘肃和 PJM 市场之间。 行情回顾： ◼ 本周（7.14-7.18）上证综指上涨 1.09%，创业板指上涨 2.36%。碳中和板块上涨 3.52%，环保板块上涨 3.07%， 公用事业板块上涨 1.28%， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The new capacity pricing policy in Gansu Province significantly raises the coal power capacity price standard to 330 CNY/kW·year, exceeding market expectations and providing a two-year implementation period [3][4] - The policy expands the coverage of capacity pricing to include various power generation types such as energy storage, hydropower, wind, and solar, with different capacity coefficients based on their contributions to grid capacity [4][6] - Gansu's capacity pricing reform is expected to lead the direction of electricity market reform in China, with the potential for a nationwide adjustment in capacity pricing, benefiting coal power companies [5][7] Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Highlights - The Gansu capacity pricing policy introduces a significant increase in the coal power capacity price standard, with a planned increase to no less than 165 CNY/kW·year by 2026 [3] - The policy creatively includes various power generation types in the compensation scope, determining capacity fees based on their effective capacity contributions [4] Section 2: Market Impact - The new policy is seen as a major breakthrough, potentially accelerating the transformation of coal power functions amid the rapid growth of renewable energy installations during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The market-oriented approach to capacity pricing is expected to yield higher compensation levels by 2026, reflecting actual supply and demand dynamics [6] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Gansu is positioned as a leader in national electricity market reform, with the potential for value reassessment of coal power companies due to the unexpected increase in capacity pricing [7] - Key beneficiaries include Gansu Energy and Huaneng International, with other coal power companies encouraged to follow Gansu's model [7]

Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the profitability of thermal power companies improved due to a decrease in coal prices from 765 RMB/ton to 621 RMB/ton, leading to an 11% recovery in stock prices since late January [4] - The thermal power sector is expected to see positive factors in electricity volume, price, and costs in 2025, indicating growth potential [4] - Hydropower and nuclear power sectors remain stable with strong cash flows and high dividend yields, while the deepening of domestic electricity reforms is likely to create diverse investment opportunities [4] Thermal Power - The comprehensive electricity price for thermal power is expected to remain stable in 2025, with coal prices trending downward, leading to further profit recovery in the industry [7] - It is recommended to focus on thermal power companies with smaller declines in electricity prices and lower proportions of long-term coal contracts [7] - The implementation of capacity pricing and auxiliary service income is expected to stabilize thermal power profitability [61] Hydropower - High dividend yields attract incremental capital, with the dividend yield of Changjiang Electric Power remaining between 3.2% and 4.4% from 2017 to 2024 [80] - The hydropower sector is expected to see growth due to the commissioning of new projects, with over 25 million kW of hydropower capacity under construction [73] Nuclear Power - The approval of 11 new nuclear units in 2024 marks a significant acceleration in nuclear project approvals, indicating a stable growth trajectory for the sector [82] - By the end of 2024, China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power have substantial capacities under construction, ensuring future growth [86] Renewable Energy - The installation of wind and solar power is expected to maintain high growth rates, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 1.41 billion kW by the end of 2024 [92] - The implementation of the 136 Document is expected to promote the full market entry of renewable energy, leading to a surge in installed capacity [99] Waste Incineration - The waste incineration sector is entering a mature phase, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both increasing by 18% year-on-year in 2024 [119] - Companies in this sector are expanding overseas, establishing a competitive advantage in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [122]