凤凰网财经讯 12月19日，三大指数集体高开，沪指高开0.05%，深成指高开0.48%，创业板指高开 0.89%，CPO、可控核聚变等板块指数涨幅居前。 在利好通胀数据的推动下，美股三大指数集体走高，结束了近期的下跌走势，纳指领涨，上涨约 1.4%。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.14%，报47,951.85点；标普500指数涨0.78%，报6,774.76点；纳斯达 克指数涨1.38%，报23,006.36点。 | | | | | 和深京重要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 *● | 最新 | 涨幅% | | 涨跌 涨跌家数 涨速% | | 总手 | 现手 金额 | | 上证指数 | 3878.23 | 0.05 | 1.86 | 1160/696 | -0.06 | 373万 | 373万 57.20亿 | | 深证成指 | 13116.19 | 0.48 | 62.22 | 1602/791 | 0.19 | 580 7 | 580万 92.30亿 | | 北证50 | 1435.87 | 0.29 | 4.16 ...

｜2025年12月19日星期五｜ NO.1中信证券：技术迭代推动液冷渗透看好国产厂商突破 中金公司（601995）认为，展望2026年，猪业新范式有望进一步强化。猪价新范式方面，或继续验证周 期长度缩短、振幅收敛、波动下降的价格特征，2026年猪价或温和回落，龙头或有望保持全年盈利；成 长新范式方面，生猪龙头"成长新范式"迎来机遇期，成长与价值属性双升；投资新范式方面，板块投资 从纯周期思维向周期与价值思维兼顾切换，低成本、大体量龙头企业估值体系持续重塑，龙头企业有望 持续跑赢行业。 NO.3中金：预计2026年煤价将呈现前低后高走势 12月19日，中金公司研报称，预计2026年煤价将呈现前低后高走势，全年中枢可能与2025年基本持平。 需求端或是主要拖累因素，但供给侧约束相对较强。上半年受政策传导滞后和季节性影响，需求可能偏 平淡，煤价或有一定压力；下半年需求有望边际改善，驱动煤价上行。 中信证券研报指出，2025年以来，在AI服务器功耗和芯片功率大幅提升的背景下，液冷方案凭借更高 的散热效率、更低的PUE，正逐步成为数据中心节能降耗的主流技术路径。中信证券预测，随着液冷加 速渗透叠加技术升级ASP提升，2 ...

中金公司（601995）发布研报称，展望2026，"猪业新范式"、"宠物经济黄金时代"等产业变迁仍将持 续，猪业龙头成长与价值属性双升，宠业龙头以品牌矩阵高端化突破中局。此外，中国农牧业"大航海 时代"已开启，"机器换人"等中国农业科技的AI赋能新叙事也迎拐点。 中金主要观点如下： 周期：猪业新范式强化，中国农牧业开启大航海时代。我们认为1)生猪：新范式特征贯穿始终，龙头成 长与价值属性双升。价格端，我们测算26年猪价或延续振幅收敛、波动下降的新范式特征，价格中枢回 落、节奏先抑后扬，高效龙头有望保有年度盈利。经营端，猪企开启降成本、增价值、扩海外的成长新 范式，企业出栏保持平稳。投资端，核心龙头兼顾成长与价值，有望持续领跑。2)肉鸡：供应宽松，把 握种源、渠道、品牌的优势龙头有望提升经营溢价。3)饲料：水产料龙头国内价值、海外成长逻辑持续 强化，预计26年饲料龙头国内高质量提份额，加速开启全球大航海时代。4)农产品：供需格局边际改 善，粮食价格有望走出谷底。 消费：宠物经济行至中局，产品创新、渠道效率定胜负。我们认为1)宠物食品：竞争行至中局，高端化 创新破局。随行业换挡至高质量增长、叠加资本及产业加大投入 ...

中金公司认为，展望2026年，猪业新范式有望进一步强化。我们认为，猪价新范式方面，或继续验 证周期长度缩短、振幅收敛、波动下降的价格特征，2026年猪价或温和回落，龙头或有望保持全年盈 利；成长新范式方面，生猪龙头"成长新范式"迎来机遇期，成长与价值属性双升；投资新范式方面，板 块投资从纯周期思维向周期与价值思维兼顾切换，低成本、大体量龙头企业估值体系持续重塑，龙头企 业有望持续跑赢行业。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the pig industry in 2026 suggests a strengthening of new paradigms, with expectations of a moderate decline in pig prices while leading companies are likely to maintain profitability throughout the year [1] Price New Paradigm - The characteristics of the new price paradigm for pig prices are expected to continue validating shorter cycle lengths, converging amplitudes, and reduced volatility [1] Growth New Paradigm - Leading companies in the pig industry are entering an opportunity period for the "growth new paradigm," where both growth and value attributes are expected to rise [1] Investment New Paradigm - Investment strategies in the sector are shifting from a purely cyclical approach to a combination of cyclical and value considerations, with a continuous reshaping of the valuation system for low-cost, large-scale leading enterprises [1] - Leading companies are anticipated to consistently outperform the industry [1]

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The "new paradigm of the pig industry" and the "golden age of the pet economy" are expected to continue, with leading companies in the pig and pet industries experiencing growth and value enhancement [2] - The pig industry is characterized by a new paradigm where leading companies are expected to maintain stable profits while reducing costs and increasing value [5][8] - The supply-demand dynamics for agricultural products are expected to improve marginally, with grain prices anticipated to rise from their lows [20][27] Group 2: Pig Industry Insights - The new paradigm in the pig industry is marked by a reduction in price volatility, with the average pig price expected to decline moderately in 2026 [6][8] - The supply of pigs is projected to increase slightly in 2026, with the average breeding sow inventory showing a minor year-on-year increase [9][11] - Leading pig companies are adopting a growth paradigm focused on cost reduction, value enhancement, and international expansion [13] Group 3: Poultry Industry Insights - The chicken supply remains ample, with leading companies expected to leverage advantages in breeding, channels, and branding to enhance operational premiums [15][16] - The poultry industry is undergoing structural changes, with a focus on improving channel efficiency and brand recognition to drive profitability [18] Group 4: Pet Industry Insights - The pet food market is experiencing significant growth, with online sales increasing by 21.5% year-on-year, indicating a strong market concentration among leading brands [30][31] - The competition in the pet food industry is intensifying, with brand differentiation becoming more pronounced as companies focus on high-end product innovation [33][43] - The pet food industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% over the next 3-5 years, driven by increased penetration of professional pet food [43] Group 5: Feed Industry Insights - The domestic feed market is expected to strengthen, with leading companies poised to increase their market share as they expand internationally [20][23] - The global feed market is characterized by low concentration, providing opportunities for leading companies to establish a competitive advantage through comprehensive product offerings and global expansion [23] Group 6: Agricultural Products Insights - Grain prices are expected to recover from their lows, with corn prices projected to rise moderately due to improved supply-demand dynamics [26][27] - The overall agricultural landscape is shifting towards a "great navigation era," with advancements in agricultural technology and AI integration [2][20]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 5.9% year-on-year to 49.852 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant rise in net profit attributable to shareholders by 159.1% to 3.475 billion yuan, indicating strong performance despite challenges in the second quarter [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from pig farming increased by 16.26% to 32.735 billion yuan, with pig sales volume rising by 15.6% to 16.6166 million heads, although the average selling price of pigs decreased by 2.56% to 14.93 yuan per kilogram [2] - The chicken farming segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 9.29% to 15.127 billion yuan, despite a sales volume increase of 9.16% to 600 million birds, and the average selling price dropping by 18.43% to 10.84 yuan per kilogram, resulting in a loss of 1.2 billion yuan in the chicken business [2] Production Efficiency and Financial Health - The company achieved cost control with the comprehensive cost of pig farming reduced to 12.4 yuan per kilogram and chicken farming cost down to 11.2 yuan per kilogram, maintaining a leading position in the industry [3] - Key production metrics improved, with piglet production costs at 280 yuan per head and a piglet survival rate of 93% in June, while chicken farming maintained a high market rate of 95% [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio was 50.57% at the end of the first half of 2025, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating a stable financial position [4] Industry Trends and Growth Potential - The company is positioned to benefit from a new paradigm in the Chinese pig industry characterized by reduced price volatility and increased profitability, with an estimated profit of approximately 300 yuan per pig [4] - The company aims to achieve a pig output target of 33 to 35 million heads in 2025, supported by a 6.1% increase in breeding stock compared to the end of 2024 [4] Dividend and Valuation Outlook - The company has a strong dividend potential, with an average payout ratio of 42% from 2015 to 2024, higher than the industry average [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 and 10 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 25 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 38% [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2025 and four times in 2026, bringing the target rate down to 2.75%-3.0% [1] - UBS warns that increased politicization of the Federal Reserve will raise the risk premium in the U.S. bond market, leading to higher borrowing costs and reduced fiscal stimulus space [1] - French Agricultural Credit Bank anticipates two rate cuts this year, with a terminal rate of 4%, citing persistent inflation as a limiting factor for aggressive easing [2] Group 2: Economic Sentiment in Germany - Dutch International Group reports that German businesses are optimistic about upcoming government spending, despite weak economic data [3] - The IFO index indicates rising confidence among German enterprises, driven by expectations of significant fiscal investment in defense and infrastructure [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - CICC notes that new housing policies in Shanghai are expected to provide a temporary boost to local market sentiment [7] - Huatai Securities believes that recent real estate policies in major cities will accelerate the stabilization of the housing market, recommending developers with strong fundamentals [8] - CITIC Securities states that further optimization of real estate policies will help release short-term demand and support market stabilization efforts [9] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - CICC identifies a new paradigm in China's pig farming industry, indicating that traditional cyclical patterns are becoming less relevant [5] - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that while the market shows signs of overheating, there are still opportunities in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors [6] -招商策略 emphasizes the importance of the new technology cycle and the progress of societal intelligence in investment strategies [6]