1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The corn market is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The c2509 contract is affected by multiple negative factors such as high production, sufficient supply from imported corn, substitution by wheat and other grains, high new - crop planting area, and expected good yield. The new - crop's minimum planting cost on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift down [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - The corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the new - crop corn is growing well. The current main variable in future supply is the weather during the growing period, especially rainfall. This week, the national corn market continued to be weak, with both futures and spot prices falling significantly. Different regions have different supply and demand situations. The new - crop production expectation and cost center shift down drive the futures price down [7][8]. Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The estimated import volume for the 2024/25 period is 5 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 period [16][17]. Substitutes - Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure from imported substitutes is decreasing. The main domestic substitutes are wheat and millet, and the imported substitutes are mainly imported sorghum and barley. The wheat market is oscillating, and the current corn - wheat price difference in North China is in the substitutable range, so the substitution pressure on corn is high. In June 2025, the import volume of barley and sorghum decreased year - on - year, reducing the substitution pressure [26][28]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is generally average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, parent - stock white - feather broilers, and egg - laying chicken seedlings is at a high level, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit is at a low level, the broiler breeding profit is seasonally high, and the egg - laying chicken breeding loss has expanded [32][34]. Deep - processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has risen significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has recovered to a neutral level, about 54.8%. The production of corn starch has also increased, but the downstream提货 volume is relatively low. The production profit of corn starch is severely in the red, and the profit of corn alcohol enterprises is still in the red [54][55]. Inventory Trade Channel Corn Inventory - The inventory in trade channels and downstream is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 1, the inventory in the four northern ports continued to decline, with the total inventory dropping to about 1.9 million tons. The domestic trade inventory in southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises reached a new high in the past eight years, about 1.32 million tons [78][80]. Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of feed enterprises continues to decrease, with the available inventory days at around 30 days, and the inventory in North China and South China is relatively high [79]. Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally, with the national inventory at about 3.64 million tons, at a neutral level [79]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch, including the basis of different contracts in Jinzhou Port and Jilin area, and the spread between different contracts of corn and starch [114][124]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On August 7, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [132].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The old - crop corn supply - demand remains tight. Without a large - scale policy auction, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The new - crop corn has a slightly reduced planting area and lower planting costs, facing supply pressure upon listing, with a lower valuation than the old - crop [2]. - In the second half of 2025, the corn price is expected to fluctuate between 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with a core range of 2,250 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Before the policy auction, corn is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend, and the overall valuation center may shift downwards later [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn and Corn Starch Trends 1.1 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn Trends - In the first half of 2025, the domestic corn price fluctuated upward due to factors such as state reserves increase, tariff counter - measures, wheat drought, and tight supply - demand. The highest spot平仓 price at Jinzhou Port was 2,370 yuan/ton, and the highest futures index was 2,381 yuan/ton [6]. - The price trend can be divided into five stages: from January to mid - March, the price rose due to state reserves increase; from mid - March to the end of March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure; from April to mid - May, the price rose due to inventory reduction at northern ports and wheat price increase; from mid - May to the end of May, the price dropped due to low basis and increased trader shipments; from the end of May to the present, the price rose again due to continuous grain consumption and the boost of wheat price [9][10][11]. 1.2 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn Starch Trends - The overall price of corn starch followed the corn price. In the first half of the year, its yield (8.4%) outperformed that of corn futures (7.4%) because the raw material price in North China was relatively strong [12]. 2. Key Concerns for International Corn in the Second Half of 2025 2.1 Focus on South American and US Corn Demand in the Old - Crop Year - Brazil's corn production has increased significantly, with an expected output of 128 million tons in the 2024/25 season, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The export volume is expected to reach 43 million tons, an increase of about 5 million tons year - on - year. Starting in July, Brazil will start large - scale exports, which will impact the market. The subsequent focus is on its export cost - effectiveness [15]. - The old - crop US corn has a fast export progress. As of the week of June 5, the cumulative sales volume was 65.93 million tons, with a cumulative sales progress of 97.94%. The focus is on the impact of tariffs on subsequent exports and the impact of Brazil's corn listing [18]. 2.2 In the 2025/26 Season, Global Corn Stocks Will Decline, but Production Is Expected to Reach a Record High - In the 2025/26 season, the global corn supply - demand pattern will be slightly tighter, and the production is expected to reach a record high of 1.265982 billion tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 275 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8 million tons [20]. - The US corn planting area is expected to increase to 95.3 million acres. The sowing progress was basically normal, but there is a possibility of a slight downward adjustment in the area report at the end of June. The short - term weather conditions are slightly worse than last year, and continuous attention should be paid to the weather in US corn - growing regions [21][22]. 3. Domestic Old - Crop Corn Has Support at the Lower Level, and the Valuation of New - Crop Corn Will Decline 3.1 The Tight Supply - Demand Pattern of Domestic Old - Crop Corn Remains Unchanged - In the 24/25 season, the supply - demand of domestic corn remains tight. The reduction of substitute grains is the core reason. The production decreased slightly in 2024, and the import volume in the 24/25 season is expected to decrease significantly. Although the carry - over inventory increased year - on - year, the reduction in imports is greater than the increase in carry - over inventory. The demand for feed has increased slightly, resulting in a de - stocking pattern [28]. - The inventory at northern ports is expected to decline rapidly. Since April, the inventory has been decreasing. The subsequent focus is on the substitution situation of wheat in South China. If the wheat - corn price difference in South China narrows to less than 50 yuan/ton, it will suppress the price increase of corn in South China [30]. - The price in North China is affected by wheat in the short term, and the supply - demand is relatively tight. The supply - demand tension is expected to appear in early July. The subsequent price drivers are wheat substitution and the inflow of grain from Northeast China [38]. - A large amount of corn in Northeast China has flowed out, and the remaining available grain for sale is limited. It is expected that deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China will raise the purchase price to reduce the outflow of grain [39]. 3.2 The Cost - Effectiveness of Substitute Grains Remains Key - The wheat - corn price difference has narrowed, and the substitution cost - effectiveness has become prominent. Since mid - April, wheat has gradually become cost - effective for use. The overall supply of new - crop wheat is still in a pattern of oversupply, and the focus is on policy intervention [44]. - The wheat price has declined to near the minimum purchase price, and the government's price policy guidance has increased. The focus is on the intensity of the minimum purchase price policy. In the case of wheat cost - effectiveness, the increase in North China's corn price is limited, and the corn price will rise synchronously if the wheat price stabilizes and increases [45]. - The substitution volume of wheat in the 24/25 season is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, but the total amount of corn substitutes will decrease significantly year - on - year. The price of old - crop corn will continue to rise without unexpected supply [48]. - The release of rice will have a significant impact on the corn market. If released, the volume is expected to exceed 10 million tons, which will have a large substitution effect on corn demand. The import volume of grains has decreased significantly year - on - year, and there is no expectation of policy relaxation for the time being [48][49]. 3.3 Downstream Demand Has a Marginal Positive Impact on Corn - The high inventory level of livestock and poultry breeding has increased the total feed demand, which is positive for corn demand. The apparent consumption of starch is expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year [51]. 3.4 Outlook for Domestic New - Crop Corn - The planting area of new - crop corn is expected to decline due to lower profitability compared to soybeans and peanuts. The actual planted area needs to be further confirmed. The focus is on the impact of weather on corn yield, especially the risk of drought [53][54]. - The planting cost of new - crop corn has decreased, and the valuation of futures contracts after 2511 is significantly lower than that of contracts before 2509. After the trading of old - crop corn ends, the focus will shift to the output and listing rhythm of new - crop corn [55].