Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The corn futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The main contract has switched to 2511, with the price breaking down. As spring corn is gradually coming onto the market, the supply will be further supplemented. Meanwhile, the开机 rate of downstream deep - processing enterprises remains low, and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid demand, showing low purchasing enthusiasm [9][61]. - The recommended trading strategies are to take a bearish approach on rallies for single - side trading, adopt a reverse spread strategy between near and far - term contracts for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options trading [9][62]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - Last Friday, the main corn futures contract switched to 2511. The market showed a weak and volatile trend last week. As of last Friday's close, the main c2511 contract was reported at 2,190 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%, with a trading volume of 484,753 lots and an open interest of 828,457 lots [6][13]. - Last Friday, the CBOT December new - crop corn contract closed at 405.75 cents per bushel, a gain of 2.14% [6][16]. (2) Spot Price - In the Northeast, corn prices were under pressure and showed a weak trend last week. Traders' inventories were limited, terminal demand was weak, deep - processing enterprises had sufficient inventories, and feed enterprises also had relatively ample stocks with low purchasing willingness. As of last Friday, the reference price of second - grade corn in Harbin was 2,195 yuan/ton, and in Changchun was 2,250 yuan/ton, both down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][22]. - In North China, corn prices were slightly weaker. The market's bullish expectation cooled, and traders actively sold their stocks. Although the overall grain supply was tight, enterprises slowed down their purchasing pace, leading to a continuous decline in inventories. As of last Friday, the reference price of deep - processing corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][23]. - In the sales areas, corn prices were generally stable with partial slight declines. With the upcoming new - crop corn harvest, the price of old - crop corn dropped significantly. Downstream feed enterprises mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and consumed their previous inventories. As of last Friday, the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Chengdu was 2,490 yuan/ton, and in Kunming was 2,580 yuan/ton, both down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][23]. - The corn markets at the north and south ports showed a differentiated trend. The price at Beigang was basically stable, with most port traders out of business, and inventory and shipments gradually declining. The price at Nangang rose slightly, driven by the slight increase in the futures market. Currently, the inventory at southern ports has slightly decreased, and actual trading by traders was dull. As of last Friday, the quoted price of second - grade corn at Jinzhou Port was 2,300 yuan/ton, and at Shekou Port was 2,430 yuan/ton [8][23]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - France's Ministry of Agriculture lowered its 2025 corn production forecast and raised its wheat production forecast, which may affect the corn supply - demand pattern and international trade flow in Europe [24]. - The State Council Executive Meeting passed the draft of the Law on Farmland Protection and Quality Improvement, emphasizing farmland protection and improvement, which will have a long - term impact on China's agricultural production and grain supply and may change the future planting structure and yield of crops such as corn [24]. - Two departments issued an announcement on the re - allocation of 2025 agricultural product import tariff quotas, which may affect the corn import rhythm and market supply expectations [24]. - Russia's Ministry of Agriculture reduced the export tariffs on wheat and corn to zero, which may increase the competitiveness of Russian corn in the international market and affect the global corn trade pattern [24]. - The policy of subsidies for corn and soybean producers in Liaoning Province in 2025 helps to stabilize corn production and ensure domestic supply [24]. - India's increased ethanol production has led farmers to switch from oilseed to corn cultivation, which may increase India's domestic corn supply and reduce oilseed production, affecting the global corn market supply - demand pattern [25]. - Ukrainian corn for October shipment has a premium over the forward price due to delayed harvest and optimistic production prospects, reflecting the market's expectation of short - term supply tightness [25]. - As of August 7, the average price of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in 34 regions of the United States was 143 US dollars per ton, unchanged from a week ago. The US corn spot price continued to decline, while the soybean meal price remained stable [25]. - The joint statement of the China - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced that the China - US tariffs will remain at the current level for the next 90 days, but the import of some agricultural products may resume [25]. - The US CPI data for July showed a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%, in line with expectations, which strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and may affect the global agricultural product market capital flow [25]. - Ukraine's Ministry of Economy raised its 2025 grain production forecast from 54 million tons to 56 million tons, mainly due to higher - than - expected corn production, which may affect the global corn supply pattern [26]. - India's policy of promoting the use of corn and rice to replace sugarcane for ethanol production has led to a decrease in oilseed planting area and an increase in corn planting area, which may affect the global corn supply - demand balance in the long term [26]. - The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report showed that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 16.7 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 13%, and the planting area has been increased by 2.1 million acres to 97.3 million acres, causing the CBOT corn futures to plunge by more than 3% [26]. - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn reached 83.7%, and the first - season corn harvest was completed at 99.9%, increasing the South American supply and putting pressure on the global corn market [26]. - A US private exporter reported a sale of 315,488 tons of corn to Mexico, with 294,658 tons to be delivered in the 2025/26 season, indicating that international demand still exists [26]. - Zambia's cabinet approved the export of 500,000 tons of surplus corn to southern Africa, which may increase regional corn supply and affect the international corn trade pattern [26]. - The US Department of Agriculture's August sowing area report showed that the US corn sowing area increased significantly in 2025, while the sowing areas of soybeans and wheat decreased, which may affect future corn supply [27]. - South Korea's FLC purchased 65,000 tons of feed corn at a CNF price of 226.05 US dollars per ton, expected to arrive in South Korea around December 20, indicating that international corn trade activities are still ongoing, but demand has not increased significantly [28]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of August 14, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07%. The corn inventory of national feed enterprises continued to decline last week. Although new - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market in some areas, downstream feed enterprises mainly met their rigid demand. Due to the cancellation of railway freight preferential policies in some northwestern provinces, transportation costs increased, and the corn supply in the sales areas mainly came from the Northeast, western Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi [32]. (2) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - According to a survey, the total corn inventory of 96 national corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 3.402 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.10%. The corn inventory of national deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. Deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast mainly replenished their stocks through contracted grain arrivals, while those in North China mainly sourced from local and Northeast grain. Enterprises slowed down their purchasing pace and mostly pressured prices when purchasing [38]. (3) Deep - processing Enterprises'开机情况 - Last week, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,500 tons; the weekly national corn starch output was 289,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons; the weekly开机率 was 55.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The开机率 of the corn starch industry rebounded slightly last week, with enterprises both increasing production and undergoing maintenance. The开机率 may decline this week [42]. (4) Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit - Last week, the hedged by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was - 146 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12 yuan/ton; in Heilongjiang, it was - 139 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. Due to the weak adjustment of corn prices and the rise in by - product prices, although the corn starch price declined, the enterprise production profit rebounded [47]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - As of August 14, 149 major national corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.1406 million tons of corn last week, a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons. Among them, corn starch processing enterprises consumed 413,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons; amino acid enterprises consumed 175,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons; citric acid enterprises consumed 53,900 tons, unchanged from the previous month; alcohol enterprises consumed 268,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,600 tons [51]. 4.关联品情况分析 (1) Corn Starch - As of August 14, the mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong was 2,830 - 2,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it was 2,870 - 3,020 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Jilin, it was 2,720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; in Heilongjiang, it was 2,620 - 2,640 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The corn starch market price continued to be weak last week. On one hand, the raw material cost slightly decreased, and new order volumes were not ideal, so enterprises lowered prices to gain more orders. On the other hand, the开机率 of corn starch production rebounded, resulting in abundant market supply. With the approaching back - to - school season and the double - festival stocking period, downstream market inquiry activities increased, and the demand in the civilian field showed signs of recovery. The demand for syrup was strong in the peak season, and the overall demand side has positive expectations. However, due to the approaching new - corn harvest, downstream enterprises and traders are more cautious, and their purchases are mainly to meet rigid - demand inventory replenishment [55]. (2)生猪 - Last week, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.67 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decline of 1.94% and a year - on - year decline of 34.84%. The hog price continued to decline last week. The current oversupply situation in the breeding sector has further intensified. After the hog price reached a阶段性 low, the downward momentum has weakened, while the demand side still lacks obvious positive factors [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The old - crop corn supply - demand remains tight. Without a large - scale policy auction, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The new - crop corn has a slightly reduced planting area and lower planting costs, facing supply pressure upon listing, with a lower valuation than the old - crop [2]. - In the second half of 2025, the corn price is expected to fluctuate between 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with a core range of 2,250 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Before the policy auction, corn is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend, and the overall valuation center may shift downwards later [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn and Corn Starch Trends 1.1 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn Trends - In the first half of 2025, the domestic corn price fluctuated upward due to factors such as state reserves increase, tariff counter - measures, wheat drought, and tight supply - demand. The highest spot平仓 price at Jinzhou Port was 2,370 yuan/ton, and the highest futures index was 2,381 yuan/ton [6]. - The price trend can be divided into five stages: from January to mid - March, the price rose due to state reserves increase; from mid - March to the end of March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure; from April to mid - May, the price rose due to inventory reduction at northern ports and wheat price increase; from mid - May to the end of May, the price dropped due to low basis and increased trader shipments; from the end of May to the present, the price rose again due to continuous grain consumption and the boost of wheat price [9][10][11]. 1.2 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn Starch Trends - The overall price of corn starch followed the corn price. In the first half of the year, its yield (8.4%) outperformed that of corn futures (7.4%) because the raw material price in North China was relatively strong [12]. 2. Key Concerns for International Corn in the Second Half of 2025 2.1 Focus on South American and US Corn Demand in the Old - Crop Year - Brazil's corn production has increased significantly, with an expected output of 128 million tons in the 2024/25 season, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The export volume is expected to reach 43 million tons, an increase of about 5 million tons year - on - year. Starting in July, Brazil will start large - scale exports, which will impact the market. The subsequent focus is on its export cost - effectiveness [15]. - The old - crop US corn has a fast export progress. As of the week of June 5, the cumulative sales volume was 65.93 million tons, with a cumulative sales progress of 97.94%. The focus is on the impact of tariffs on subsequent exports and the impact of Brazil's corn listing [18]. 2.2 In the 2025/26 Season, Global Corn Stocks Will Decline, but Production Is Expected to Reach a Record High - In the 2025/26 season, the global corn supply - demand pattern will be slightly tighter, and the production is expected to reach a record high of 1.265982 billion tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 275 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8 million tons [20]. - The US corn planting area is expected to increase to 95.3 million acres. The sowing progress was basically normal, but there is a possibility of a slight downward adjustment in the area report at the end of June. The short - term weather conditions are slightly worse than last year, and continuous attention should be paid to the weather in US corn - growing regions [21][22]. 3. Domestic Old - Crop Corn Has Support at the Lower Level, and the Valuation of New - Crop Corn Will Decline 3.1 The Tight Supply - Demand Pattern of Domestic Old - Crop Corn Remains Unchanged - In the 24/25 season, the supply - demand of domestic corn remains tight. The reduction of substitute grains is the core reason. The production decreased slightly in 2024, and the import volume in the 24/25 season is expected to decrease significantly. Although the carry - over inventory increased year - on - year, the reduction in imports is greater than the increase in carry - over inventory. The demand for feed has increased slightly, resulting in a de - stocking pattern [28]. - The inventory at northern ports is expected to decline rapidly. Since April, the inventory has been decreasing. The subsequent focus is on the substitution situation of wheat in South China. If the wheat - corn price difference in South China narrows to less than 50 yuan/ton, it will suppress the price increase of corn in South China [30]. - The price in North China is affected by wheat in the short term, and the supply - demand is relatively tight. The supply - demand tension is expected to appear in early July. The subsequent price drivers are wheat substitution and the inflow of grain from Northeast China [38]. - A large amount of corn in Northeast China has flowed out, and the remaining available grain for sale is limited. It is expected that deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China will raise the purchase price to reduce the outflow of grain [39]. 3.2 The Cost - Effectiveness of Substitute Grains Remains Key - The wheat - corn price difference has narrowed, and the substitution cost - effectiveness has become prominent. Since mid - April, wheat has gradually become cost - effective for use. The overall supply of new - crop wheat is still in a pattern of oversupply, and the focus is on policy intervention [44]. - The wheat price has declined to near the minimum purchase price, and the government's price policy guidance has increased. The focus is on the intensity of the minimum purchase price policy. In the case of wheat cost - effectiveness, the increase in North China's corn price is limited, and the corn price will rise synchronously if the wheat price stabilizes and increases [45]. - The substitution volume of wheat in the 24/25 season is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, but the total amount of corn substitutes will decrease significantly year - on - year. The price of old - crop corn will continue to rise without unexpected supply [48]. - The release of rice will have a significant impact on the corn market. If released, the volume is expected to exceed 10 million tons, which will have a large substitution effect on corn demand. The import volume of grains has decreased significantly year - on - year, and there is no expectation of policy relaxation for the time being [48][49]. 3.3 Downstream Demand Has a Marginal Positive Impact on Corn - The high inventory level of livestock and poultry breeding has increased the total feed demand, which is positive for corn demand. The apparent consumption of starch is expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year [51]. 3.4 Outlook for Domestic New - Crop Corn - The planting area of new - crop corn is expected to decline due to lower profitability compared to soybeans and peanuts. The actual planted area needs to be further confirmed. The focus is on the impact of weather on corn yield, especially the risk of drought [53][54]. - The planting cost of new - crop corn has decreased, and the valuation of futures contracts after 2511 is significantly lower than that of contracts before 2509. After the trading of old - crop corn ends, the focus will shift to the output and listing rhythm of new - crop corn [55].

研究所 粮源继续收紧 后市震荡走强为主 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年06月20日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货震荡上涨，期货偏强震荡，基差略走弱，受进口玉米拍卖影响，C7-9价差小幅下跌。基本面来看，目前基 层余粮消耗将尽，上量持续偏低，5月进口玉米及替代品仍然偏少，且跟踪进口买船亦无明显增量，后期整体供应压力不大； 消费端来看，饲料产量同比维持增长，但小麦-玉米价差偏低，对玉米在饲料领域的使用有一定挤占效果；深加工来看，淀粉 加工利润受到副产品走强提振有所修复，行业开机率略有增加。库存来看，南方港口内贸玉米有所增加，北港玉米库存继续下 降，饲料企业及深加工企业原料库存亦走低，整体库存压力继续减轻。总体来看，玉米供需格局趋于改善，后期料震荡走强。 操作上，偏多思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.玉米期货市场变化 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 2.淀粉期货市场变化 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建 ...