按照往年规律，每年11—12月新粮集中上市，供应增加导致玉米价格承压回落。今年市场却一反常态， 10月中旬玉米价格就开始逆势上涨。 基于对前期需求的分析，刘冰欣预计2026年元旦前玉米价格维持震荡格局。元旦后农户有偿还贷款、置 办年货以及购买新季农资的需求，传统的春节前售粮小高峰或出现，届时玉米价格大概率震荡下行。 刘金鹭认为，虽然玉米价格短期内上涨动力可能减弱，但供应偏紧、冬季物流成本上升、饲用需求增长 等价格支撑因素尚未根本转变。不过，下游对高价货源的接受度偏低，且南方销区进口替代品价格优势 显现，玉米价格的上行空间也有限。后续玉米期货盘面大概率呈现高位震荡态势，大幅上涨的可能性较 小。 市场分析人士认为，这种反常现象与今年国内外玉米供需格局的深刻变化有关。受全球贸易摩擦影响， 今年进口玉米数量锐减，国内陈粮库存持续下降，新粮上市后市场仍处于供需偏紧的状态。 （文章来源：期货日报） "12月下旬，东北地区大概率难以出现往年大批量售粮的情况。"刘金鹭告诉记者，从农户层面来看，目 前东北农户惜售情绪浓厚。一方面，12月上旬黑龙江产区大幅降温，有利于地趴粮脱水保存，延长了农 户持粮时间；另一方面，溢价收购政策给 ...

按照往年规律，每年11—12月新粮集中上市，供应增加导致玉米价格承压回落。今年市场却一反常态，10月中旬玉米价格就开始逆势上涨。 市场分析人士认为，这种反常现象与今年国内外玉米供需格局的深刻变化有关。受全球贸易摩擦影响，今年进口玉米数量锐减，国内陈粮库存持续下降， 新粮上市后市场仍处于供需偏紧的状态。 玉米现货市场今年也出现了一些新情况。"新粮品质不佳是今年玉米价格上行的主要原因之一。"国元期货油脂油料研究员刘金鹭表示，华北地区的持续阴 雨天气导致部分玉米霉变，东北地区玉米品质相对更好，进一步增加区域供应压力。需求端则持续发力，今年生猪、家禽存栏量同比显著增长，饲用需求 也大幅增长。此外，收购政策提振市场信心，叠加近期北方降雪推高物流成本，东北货源外运受阻，多重因素共同推动玉米价格持续走高。 不过，上周一和周二玉米期货价格显著回调。对此，徽商期货农产品分析师刘冰欣告诉期货日报记者，10月以来玉米价格持续上行导致深加工企业利润空 间收窄，收购意愿也随之下降。前期相关企业阶段性补库陆续结束，需求拉动效应减弱。与此同时，上周市场惜售情绪降温，叠加资金有获利了结需求， 多重因素导致玉米期货价格显著回调。 12月下旬东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong, with the main contract price rising in a volatile manner and hitting a new high at the end of the month. The spot price first declined and then rose sharply, with regional supply - demand differentiation leading the market. The market's bullish sentiment was strong, but towards the end of the month, the upward momentum slowed. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Caution is needed for a potential market decline [5][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong. As of November 28, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, with a trading volume of 550,428 lots and an open interest of 959,620 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 447.75 cents/bushel, up 0.56% [5][12][17]. (2) Spot Price - In November, the national average corn price was 2,237 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month and up 3.18% year - on - year. In the Northeast, prices were strong; in North China, prices were high due to tight supply - demand; in the sales areas, prices continued to rise. The price increases in different regions were significant [7][21][23]. (3) Basis - As of November 28, the basis of the Dalian corn main contract was 46 yuan/ton. In November, the basis recovered from a low and expanded, with the increase in spot prices exceeding that of futures prices [25]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Multiple aspects of information are included, such as China's corn imports from Russia, grain production in India, corn consumption and exports in the US, grain exports in Ukraine, corn planting progress in Argentina and Brazil, and corn procurement results of Sinograin [27][28][31]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Sinograin Corn Auction - In November, Sinograin conducted 74 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 1,168,999 tons and an actual成交 volume of 415,790 tons, a成交 rate of 35.57%. It also conducted 4 corn sales auctions, with all 8,539 tons planned for trading being sold. There were no two - way trading or imported corn auctions [43][45]. (2) North - South Port Corn Inventory - As of November 21, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.156 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9025 million tons. The domestic and foreign trade corn inventories at Guangdong Port were 284,000 tons and 315,000 tons respectively [51]. (3) Feed Enterprise Inventory - As of November 28, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, up 3.73 days from October, a month - on - month increase of 15.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [55]. (4) Feed Market - In October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 2.907 million tons, down 4.2% month - on - month and up 3.6% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed decreased year - on - year [58]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Inventory - As of November 26, the total corn inventory of major domestic corn processing enterprises was 2.698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% [62]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Consumption - In November 2025, the estimated corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 5.93 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons from the previous month and 50,000 tons from the same period last year [67]. (7) Deep - processing Enterprise Startup Rate - In November, the startup rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise. The total output of 60 corn starch production enterprises was 1.3885 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 109,500 tons. The startup rate was 64.03%, up 5.05% month - on - month and down 6.3% year - on - year [71]. (8) Deep - processing Enterprise Profit - In November, the profits of corn starch enterprises improved. The average profits of corn starch hedging by - products in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang increased month - on - month [77]. (9) Import and Export - In October 2025, the corn import volume was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500.00% and a year - on - year increase of 43.10%. The export volume was only 52,607 tons [80]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - In November, the average national corn starch price was 2,690 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from October. The firm corn price provided support, and the decline in syrup demand was offset by other industries. The rising prices of cassava and wheat starch boosted the substitution demand for corn starch [88]. (2) Pigs - In November, the average pig slaughter price was 11.67 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from October, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.57%. The market was in a downward trend, and although there was some support from pickling demand in December, supply - side pressure remained [92]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - The corn futures and spot prices rose in tandem in November, but the upward momentum slowed towards the end of the month. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Attention should be paid to the potential market decline. - Operational strategy: For single - side trading, gradually reduce long positions to avoid high - level callback risks; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the corn futures market showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, with the main contract reaching a phased high on Friday. The market sentiment was relatively strong. In the short - term, the market may maintain a moderately strong oscillation. The current strong reluctance of farmers to sell and the obstruction of corn circulation, along with the significant depletion of downstream enterprise inventories and the release of rigid restocking demand, provide support for corn prices. However, the sharp increase in imported corn arrivals in October and the increasing expectation of wheat auctions may have an indirect impact on the corn market demand [8][79]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - The price of the domestic corn futures main contract C2601 first declined and then rebounded last week. As of the close on Friday, it was reported at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, with a trading volume of 823,020 lots and an open interest of 949,440 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 437.75 cents per bushel last week [14][19]. (2) Spot Price - The national average weekly price of corn last week was 2,243 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton. In the Northeast, prices in Jilin and Liaoning rose. In North China, some enterprises raised prices to attract supply. In the southern ports, prices increased, while in the northern ports, prices were stable after an initial rise [24]. (3) Basis - As of last Friday, the basis of corn in Dalian area against the main contract was 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and it was at the historical average level seasonally [26]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Ukraine has completed 84% of its planned grain harvest area as of November 13, with a harvest of 47.937 million tons [27]. - The EU's 27 - country grain exports from July 1 to November 9 increased by 16% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 32% [27]. - The US Department of Agriculture's November report adjusted the US 2025/26 corn production, export, and ending inventory. The global corn production, usage, and export were also adjusted, with a slight decrease in ending inventory [27][28]. - Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting progress as of November 12 was 36.6% of the expected area, slightly behind last year [28]. - There were various results from China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's corn auctions and procurement in different regions from November 17 - 21 [29][30][31]. - US corn export inspection volume in the week ending November 13 was 2.053932 million tons, exceeding market expectations [30]. - Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting progress was 85% as of November 13, and the expected export volume in November is 6.36 million tons [30][34]. - South Korea's feed - related enterprises had multiple corn procurement activities [31][33][35]. - The IGC raised the 2025/26 global corn production forecast by 1 million tons to 129.8 million tons [36]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's Corn Auction - There were 17 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 200,916 tons and an actual成交 volume of 65,705 tons, a成交 rate of 32.7%. There were 2 sales auctions, with a 100%成交 rate. There were no trading in two - way and imported corn auctions [39][41]. (2) Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of November 20, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 26.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 days, or 2.42%, but a year - on - year decrease of 9.58% [44]. (3) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - As of November 20, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 2.727 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.02% [50]. (4) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - Last week, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3831 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.34 million tons week - on - week. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [54]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup - Last week, the processing volume, output, and startup rate of the corn starch industry all decreased slightly. The weekly processing volume was 612,400 tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons from the previous week; the output was 315,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; and the weekly startup rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% [59]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit - Due to the rise in corn raw material prices, the production profit of downstream deep - processing enterprises decreased. The hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with the previous week [64]. (7) Import and Export - In October 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons, or 43.1%. From January to October 2025, China imported 1.29 million tons of corn, a year - on - year decrease of 11.84 million tons, or 90% [67]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,691 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. Prices in different regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang had different changes [71][73]. (2) Pigs - Last week, the spot and futures prices of pigs continued to decline. The national average pig slaughter price was 11.55 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg, or 2.04%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.39% [78]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 (1)后市展望 - The short - term corn market may maintain a moderately strong oscillation, supported by farmers' reluctance to sell, restocking demand from downstream enterprises, but affected by increased imports and wheat auction expectations [79]. (2)操作策略 - For unilateral trading, hold long positions cautiously and verify the effectiveness of the 2,200 - yuan key level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [80].

Group 1 - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, corn futures closed at 2191 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in the K-line and an increase in open interest by 28,014 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - During the week of August 25-29, the corn futures opened at 2175 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2197 CNY/ton, and a low of 2150 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.58% [1] Group 2 - The USDA's latest drought report indicates that as of the week ending August 26, approximately 5% of the U.S. corn planting area was affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and down from 8% year-on-year [2] - For the week ending August 21, U.S. net corn export sales for the 2024/2025 marketing year were -18,000 tons, an improvement from -27,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were 2.09 million tons, down from 2.86 million tons the previous week [2] - As of August 27, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises across 12 regions in China was 2.942 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 6.51% [2] Group 3 - Guosen Futures noted that recent rapid outflows of warehouse receipts and increased inventory reduction at northern ports have alleviated short-term pressure; however, wheat retains a substitution advantage in some areas, and the demand side remains weak due to general livestock profits and ongoing losses in deep processing, leading to insufficient motivation for large-scale replenishment [3] - Zhengxin Futures observed that the quality of U.S. corn is better than expected, leading to a weak fluctuation; domestic reserve purchases are supporting wheat prices, but the arrival of some spring corn and lower opening prices are stimulating short-term increases in corn supply, while market sentiment remains bearish [3] - In the medium to long term, with the new corn harvest approaching and traders increasing selling pressure, the overall outlook for corn is expected to remain weak [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The corn futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The main contract has switched to 2511, with the price breaking down. As spring corn is gradually coming onto the market, the supply will be further supplemented. Meanwhile, the开机 rate of downstream deep - processing enterprises remains low, and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid demand, showing low purchasing enthusiasm [9][61]. - The recommended trading strategies are to take a bearish approach on rallies for single - side trading, adopt a reverse spread strategy between near and far - term contracts for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options trading [9][62]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - Last Friday, the main corn futures contract switched to 2511. The market showed a weak and volatile trend last week. As of last Friday's close, the main c2511 contract was reported at 2,190 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%, with a trading volume of 484,753 lots and an open interest of 828,457 lots [6][13]. - Last Friday, the CBOT December new - crop corn contract closed at 405.75 cents per bushel, a gain of 2.14% [6][16]. (2) Spot Price - In the Northeast, corn prices were under pressure and showed a weak trend last week. Traders' inventories were limited, terminal demand was weak, deep - processing enterprises had sufficient inventories, and feed enterprises also had relatively ample stocks with low purchasing willingness. As of last Friday, the reference price of second - grade corn in Harbin was 2,195 yuan/ton, and in Changchun was 2,250 yuan/ton, both down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][22]. - In North China, corn prices were slightly weaker. The market's bullish expectation cooled, and traders actively sold their stocks. Although the overall grain supply was tight, enterprises slowed down their purchasing pace, leading to a continuous decline in inventories. As of last Friday, the reference price of deep - processing corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][23]. - In the sales areas, corn prices were generally stable with partial slight declines. With the upcoming new - crop corn harvest, the price of old - crop corn dropped significantly. Downstream feed enterprises mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and consumed their previous inventories. As of last Friday, the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Chengdu was 2,490 yuan/ton, and in Kunming was 2,580 yuan/ton, both down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][23]. - The corn markets at the north and south ports showed a differentiated trend. The price at Beigang was basically stable, with most port traders out of business, and inventory and shipments gradually declining. The price at Nangang rose slightly, driven by the slight increase in the futures market. Currently, the inventory at southern ports has slightly decreased, and actual trading by traders was dull. As of last Friday, the quoted price of second - grade corn at Jinzhou Port was 2,300 yuan/ton, and at Shekou Port was 2,430 yuan/ton [8][23]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - France's Ministry of Agriculture lowered its 2025 corn production forecast and raised its wheat production forecast, which may affect the corn supply - demand pattern and international trade flow in Europe [24]. - The State Council Executive Meeting passed the draft of the Law on Farmland Protection and Quality Improvement, emphasizing farmland protection and improvement, which will have a long - term impact on China's agricultural production and grain supply and may change the future planting structure and yield of crops such as corn [24]. - Two departments issued an announcement on the re - allocation of 2025 agricultural product import tariff quotas, which may affect the corn import rhythm and market supply expectations [24]. - Russia's Ministry of Agriculture reduced the export tariffs on wheat and corn to zero, which may increase the competitiveness of Russian corn in the international market and affect the global corn trade pattern [24]. - The policy of subsidies for corn and soybean producers in Liaoning Province in 2025 helps to stabilize corn production and ensure domestic supply [24]. - India's increased ethanol production has led farmers to switch from oilseed to corn cultivation, which may increase India's domestic corn supply and reduce oilseed production, affecting the global corn market supply - demand pattern [25]. - Ukrainian corn for October shipment has a premium over the forward price due to delayed harvest and optimistic production prospects, reflecting the market's expectation of short - term supply tightness [25]. - As of August 7, the average price of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in 34 regions of the United States was 143 US dollars per ton, unchanged from a week ago. The US corn spot price continued to decline, while the soybean meal price remained stable [25]. - The joint statement of the China - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced that the China - US tariffs will remain at the current level for the next 90 days, but the import of some agricultural products may resume [25]. - The US CPI data for July showed a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%, in line with expectations, which strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and may affect the global agricultural product market capital flow [25]. - Ukraine's Ministry of Economy raised its 2025 grain production forecast from 54 million tons to 56 million tons, mainly due to higher - than - expected corn production, which may affect the global corn supply pattern [26]. - India's policy of promoting the use of corn and rice to replace sugarcane for ethanol production has led to a decrease in oilseed planting area and an increase in corn planting area, which may affect the global corn supply - demand balance in the long term [26]. - The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report showed that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 16.7 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 13%, and the planting area has been increased by 2.1 million acres to 97.3 million acres, causing the CBOT corn futures to plunge by more than 3% [26]. - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn reached 83.7%, and the first - season corn harvest was completed at 99.9%, increasing the South American supply and putting pressure on the global corn market [26]. - A US private exporter reported a sale of 315,488 tons of corn to Mexico, with 294,658 tons to be delivered in the 2025/26 season, indicating that international demand still exists [26]. - Zambia's cabinet approved the export of 500,000 tons of surplus corn to southern Africa, which may increase regional corn supply and affect the international corn trade pattern [26]. - The US Department of Agriculture's August sowing area report showed that the US corn sowing area increased significantly in 2025, while the sowing areas of soybeans and wheat decreased, which may affect future corn supply [27]. - South Korea's FLC purchased 65,000 tons of feed corn at a CNF price of 226.05 US dollars per ton, expected to arrive in South Korea around December 20, indicating that international corn trade activities are still ongoing, but demand has not increased significantly [28]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of August 14, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07%. The corn inventory of national feed enterprises continued to decline last week. Although new - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market in some areas, downstream feed enterprises mainly met their rigid demand. Due to the cancellation of railway freight preferential policies in some northwestern provinces, transportation costs increased, and the corn supply in the sales areas mainly came from the Northeast, western Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi [32]. (2) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - According to a survey, the total corn inventory of 96 national corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 3.402 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.10%. The corn inventory of national deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. Deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast mainly replenished their stocks through contracted grain arrivals, while those in North China mainly sourced from local and Northeast grain. Enterprises slowed down their purchasing pace and mostly pressured prices when purchasing [38]. (3) Deep - processing Enterprises'开机情况 - Last week, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,500 tons; the weekly national corn starch output was 289,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons; the weekly开机率 was 55.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The开机率 of the corn starch industry rebounded slightly last week, with enterprises both increasing production and undergoing maintenance. The开机率 may decline this week [42]. (4) Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit - Last week, the hedged by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was - 146 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12 yuan/ton; in Heilongjiang, it was - 139 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. Due to the weak adjustment of corn prices and the rise in by - product prices, although the corn starch price declined, the enterprise production profit rebounded [47]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - As of August 14, 149 major national corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.1406 million tons of corn last week, a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons. Among them, corn starch processing enterprises consumed 413,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons; amino acid enterprises consumed 175,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons; citric acid enterprises consumed 53,900 tons, unchanged from the previous month; alcohol enterprises consumed 268,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,600 tons [51]. 4.关联品情况分析 (1) Corn Starch - As of August 14, the mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong was 2,830 - 2,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it was 2,870 - 3,020 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Jilin, it was 2,720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; in Heilongjiang, it was 2,620 - 2,640 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The corn starch market price continued to be weak last week. On one hand, the raw material cost slightly decreased, and new order volumes were not ideal, so enterprises lowered prices to gain more orders. On the other hand, the开机率 of corn starch production rebounded, resulting in abundant market supply. With the approaching back - to - school season and the double - festival stocking period, downstream market inquiry activities increased, and the demand in the civilian field showed signs of recovery. The demand for syrup was strong in the peak season, and the overall demand side has positive expectations. However, due to the approaching new - corn harvest, downstream enterprises and traders are more cautious, and their purchases are mainly to meet rigid - demand inventory replenishment [55]. (2)生猪 - Last week, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.67 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decline of 1.94% and a year - on - year decline of 34.84%. The hog price continued to decline last week. The current oversupply situation in the breeding sector has further intensified. After the hog price reached a阶段性 low, the downward momentum has weakened, while the demand side still lacks obvious positive factors [60].

Core Viewpoint - The corn futures market is experiencing fluctuations due to varying supply and demand dynamics, with both domestic and international factors influencing prices and inventory levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of August 7, corn futures closed at 2267.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.53% increase [1]. - By August 1, 2025, the corn inventory at the four northern ports totaled 1.905 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 201,000 tons [2]. - The weekly corn export net sales for the U.S. for the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to range between 200,000 to 400,000 tons, while for the 2025/26 marketing year, it is projected to be between 1.3 million to 2.5 million tons [2]. - In the fifth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 2.434 million tons of corn, down from 3.5539 million tons in August of the previous year, with a daily average shipment of 105,800 tons, a decrease of 31.51% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the Brazilian second-season corn harvest is nearing completion, with a slower harvest pace but still maintaining a high yield, leading to sustained pressure in the market. The U.S. corn planting area is expected to increase year-on-year, contributing to downward pressure on prices [3]. - Domestic market dynamics show a conflict between the release of old grain and tightening supply in certain regions, with wheat substitution and ongoing corn imports adding to the pressure. The recent initiation of corn exports from Argentina to China is also expected to exert pressure on prices [3]. - Guoxin Futures notes that wheat retains a substitution advantage in some areas, while demand from livestock farming remains weak, and deep processing continues to incur losses. The upcoming new corn harvest and the auction of imported corn are contributing to a loosening supply-demand balance [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The old - crop corn supply - demand remains tight. Without a large - scale policy auction, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The new - crop corn has a slightly reduced planting area and lower planting costs, facing supply pressure upon listing, with a lower valuation than the old - crop [2]. - In the second half of 2025, the corn price is expected to fluctuate between 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with a core range of 2,250 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Before the policy auction, corn is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend, and the overall valuation center may shift downwards later [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn and Corn Starch Trends 1.1 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn Trends - In the first half of 2025, the domestic corn price fluctuated upward due to factors such as state reserves increase, tariff counter - measures, wheat drought, and tight supply - demand. The highest spot平仓 price at Jinzhou Port was 2,370 yuan/ton, and the highest futures index was 2,381 yuan/ton [6]. - The price trend can be divided into five stages: from January to mid - March, the price rose due to state reserves increase; from mid - March to the end of March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure; from April to mid - May, the price rose due to inventory reduction at northern ports and wheat price increase; from mid - May to the end of May, the price dropped due to low basis and increased trader shipments; from the end of May to the present, the price rose again due to continuous grain consumption and the boost of wheat price [9][10][11]. 1.2 2025 Year - to - Date Review of Corn Starch Trends - The overall price of corn starch followed the corn price. In the first half of the year, its yield (8.4%) outperformed that of corn futures (7.4%) because the raw material price in North China was relatively strong [12]. 2. Key Concerns for International Corn in the Second Half of 2025 2.1 Focus on South American and US Corn Demand in the Old - Crop Year - Brazil's corn production has increased significantly, with an expected output of 128 million tons in the 2024/25 season, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The export volume is expected to reach 43 million tons, an increase of about 5 million tons year - on - year. Starting in July, Brazil will start large - scale exports, which will impact the market. The subsequent focus is on its export cost - effectiveness [15]. - The old - crop US corn has a fast export progress. As of the week of June 5, the cumulative sales volume was 65.93 million tons, with a cumulative sales progress of 97.94%. The focus is on the impact of tariffs on subsequent exports and the impact of Brazil's corn listing [18]. 2.2 In the 2025/26 Season, Global Corn Stocks Will Decline, but Production Is Expected to Reach a Record High - In the 2025/26 season, the global corn supply - demand pattern will be slightly tighter, and the production is expected to reach a record high of 1.265982 billion tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 275 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8 million tons [20]. - The US corn planting area is expected to increase to 95.3 million acres. The sowing progress was basically normal, but there is a possibility of a slight downward adjustment in the area report at the end of June. The short - term weather conditions are slightly worse than last year, and continuous attention should be paid to the weather in US corn - growing regions [21][22]. 3. Domestic Old - Crop Corn Has Support at the Lower Level, and the Valuation of New - Crop Corn Will Decline 3.1 The Tight Supply - Demand Pattern of Domestic Old - Crop Corn Remains Unchanged - In the 24/25 season, the supply - demand of domestic corn remains tight. The reduction of substitute grains is the core reason. The production decreased slightly in 2024, and the import volume in the 24/25 season is expected to decrease significantly. Although the carry - over inventory increased year - on - year, the reduction in imports is greater than the increase in carry - over inventory. The demand for feed has increased slightly, resulting in a de - stocking pattern [28]. - The inventory at northern ports is expected to decline rapidly. Since April, the inventory has been decreasing. The subsequent focus is on the substitution situation of wheat in South China. If the wheat - corn price difference in South China narrows to less than 50 yuan/ton, it will suppress the price increase of corn in South China [30]. - The price in North China is affected by wheat in the short term, and the supply - demand is relatively tight. The supply - demand tension is expected to appear in early July. The subsequent price drivers are wheat substitution and the inflow of grain from Northeast China [38]. - A large amount of corn in Northeast China has flowed out, and the remaining available grain for sale is limited. It is expected that deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China will raise the purchase price to reduce the outflow of grain [39]. 3.2 The Cost - Effectiveness of Substitute Grains Remains Key - The wheat - corn price difference has narrowed, and the substitution cost - effectiveness has become prominent. Since mid - April, wheat has gradually become cost - effective for use. The overall supply of new - crop wheat is still in a pattern of oversupply, and the focus is on policy intervention [44]. - The wheat price has declined to near the minimum purchase price, and the government's price policy guidance has increased. The focus is on the intensity of the minimum purchase price policy. In the case of wheat cost - effectiveness, the increase in North China's corn price is limited, and the corn price will rise synchronously if the wheat price stabilizes and increases [45]. - The substitution volume of wheat in the 24/25 season is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, but the total amount of corn substitutes will decrease significantly year - on - year. The price of old - crop corn will continue to rise without unexpected supply [48]. - The release of rice will have a significant impact on the corn market. If released, the volume is expected to exceed 10 million tons, which will have a large substitution effect on corn demand. The import volume of grains has decreased significantly year - on - year, and there is no expectation of policy relaxation for the time being [48][49]. 3.3 Downstream Demand Has a Marginal Positive Impact on Corn - The high inventory level of livestock and poultry breeding has increased the total feed demand, which is positive for corn demand. The apparent consumption of starch is expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year [51]. 3.4 Outlook for Domestic New - Crop Corn - The planting area of new - crop corn is expected to decline due to lower profitability compared to soybeans and peanuts. The actual planted area needs to be further confirmed. The focus is on the impact of weather on corn yield, especially the risk of drought [53][54]. - The planting cost of new - crop corn has decreased, and the valuation of futures contracts after 2511 is significantly lower than that of contracts before 2509. After the trading of old - crop corn ends, the focus will shift to the output and listing rhythm of new - crop corn [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Over the past week, the corn spot price fluctuated and rose, the futures showed a strong - side fluctuation, the basis weakened slightly, and the C7 - 9 spread decreased slightly due to the impact of imported corn auctions. - Fundamentally, the remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, the supply volume remains low, the imported corn and substitutes in May are still scarce, and there is no significant increase in tracked imported ship purchases, so the overall supply pressure in the later period is not large. - In terms of consumption, the feed production volume maintains year - on - year growth, but the low wheat - corn price difference has a certain squeezing effect on the use of corn in the feed field. - In terms of deep - processing, the starch processing profit has been repaired due to the strengthening of by - products, and the industry's operating rate has slightly increased. - In terms of inventory, the domestic - trade corn at southern ports has increased, the corn inventory at northern ports has continued to decline, and the raw material inventories of feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have also decreased, so the overall inventory pressure has continued to ease. - Overall, the corn supply - demand pattern tends to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the later period. The operation should adopt a bullish mindset [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 6. Corn产区天气监控 - Currently, summer sowing in most parts of the Huanghuai region is nearing completion, and most summer corn has emerged. In most parts of North China and the eastern part of Northwest China, summer corn is in the sowing to emergence stage. It is expected that from June 21 - 24, most of the summer - sowing areas will have mostly sunny weather and suitable soil moisture [62].