玉米淀粉价格走势
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南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251107
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:52
Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After the impact of the new season's listing in October, the spot price showed resilience and fluctuated slightly stronger in November. Although the spot selling pressure remained at a high level, the price showed signs of bottom consolidation under the influence of state reserve purchases, deep - processing and feed enterprises' restocking at low prices, and the rise of surrounding agricultural product prices. Downstream enterprises are advised to manage their long - term procurement to avoid the risk of increased procurement costs later [2]. - On the futures side, the corn futures price broke through upwards, recovering the decline in October. The main 01 contract closed at 2154 yuan, with increased trading volume and significantly increased open interest. The registered warrants remained unchanged at 66,351 lots. The starch price also rose, with the main 01 contract closing at 2469 yuan, increased trading volume, and slightly increased open interest. The strong sales in the starch market led to continuous inventory reduction, and the futures price followed the corn to strengthen, with the price spread between starch and corn likely to widen further [2]. - Although the overall corn price has stopped falling and stabilized, it is still weaker than other agricultural products. Currently, the price shows resilience, and short - term selling pressure is the core factor determining the price [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower. The harvest and listing of the new season's corn is the core factor suppressing the futures price. In addition, the good planting conditions for South American corn and the sharp decline of surrounding soybeans and wheat also brought pressure [2]. Summary by Section Core Contradictions - Spot price: After the October shock, it showed resilience and narrow - range upward fluctuations in November. Selling pressure is high, but state reserve purchases, enterprise restocking, and rising surrounding agricultural product prices support the price to show bottom - consolidation signs [2]. - Futures price: Corn futures broke through upwards, recovering the October decline. Starch futures followed the upward trend, and the price spread may widen [2]. - Overall situation: Corn price is stable but weaker than other agricultural products. Short - term selling pressure is the key price - determining factor [2]. - International market: CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower due to new - season harvest, good South American planting conditions, and the decline of surrounding products [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure is more dispersed, reducing the urgency of grain sales and alleviating price pressure [3]. - State reserve purchases in the Northeast production area are significantly supporting prices, limiting price declines [3]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, affecting the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current second - fattening entry support the feed demand at a good level [4]. - In the first half of November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure may be released in a concentrated manner, limiting the continuous upward momentum of prices [4]. - The sharp decline of overnight foreign agricultural products may affect the upward trend of corn [4]. Price Forecast - Corn price range (monthly): 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 56.1% [5]. - Starch price range (monthly): 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.00% and a volatility percentile of 37.89% [5]. Price and Basis Data - Spot price: For corn, Jinzhou Port is 2155 yuan (-10 yuan), Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch, Shandong is 2750 yuan (unchanged), Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is 2450 yuan (unchanged) [5]. - Basis: Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis for corn is 1 yuan (-30 yuan), and Shandong main - continuous basis for corn starch is 281 yuan (-18 yuan) [5]. - Futures price: Corn futures prices generally increased on November 6, 2025, with the 11 - contract rising 28 yuan (1.32%), the 01 - contract rising 20 yuan (0.94%), etc. Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the 11 - contract unchanged, the 01 - contract rising 18 yuan (0.73%), etc. The wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan (-0.12%) [6]. International Market Data - CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 428.75 cents per bushel, down 6.25 cents (-1.44%). COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1108 cents per bushel, down 26.5 cents (-2.34%). CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 536 cents per bushel, down 18 cents (-3.25%) [26]. - The duty - paid price in the US Gulf is 2164.54 yuan, up 10.57 yuan (0.49%), with an import profit of 85.46 yuan. The duty - paid price in the US West is 2048.48 yuan, up 10.63 yuan (0.52%), with an import profit of 201.52 yuan [26].
玉米淀粉日报-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 10:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: US corn planting progress is accelerating, leading to a weakening of US corn prices. China has adjusted tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and foreign corn imports are still profitable. Northern port flat - price has increased, Northeast corn is strong, and North China corn has also risen. Wheat is gradually substituting for corn, and domestic breeding demand is weak. However, due to low supply, corn prices are expected to rise in the short - term. There is a risk of a decline in the futures market [5][7]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and Shandong corn prices have continued to rise. Corn starch inventory has declined this week. Starch prices mainly depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. Starch enterprises are in a long - term loss, and short - term 07 starch futures have limited room for rebound [8]. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Futures Market - Corn Futures: C2601 closed at 2286, up 13 (0.57%), with a trading volume increase of 45.27% and an open interest increase of 8.82%. C2505 closed at 2303, up 16 (0.69%), with a trading volume decrease of 22.01% and an open interest increase of 13.82%. C2509 closed at 2404, up 19 (0.79%), with a trading volume increase of 32.68% and an open interest increase of 8.29% [3]. - Starch Futures: CS2601 closed at 2682, up 15 (0.56%), with a trading volume decrease of 7.64% and an open interest increase of 0.54%. CS2505 closed at 2681, up 15 (0.56%), with a trading volume decrease of 22.22% and an open interest increase of 14.61%. CS2509 closed at 2775, up 17 (0.61%), with a trading volume decrease of 5.22% and an open interest increase of 9.72% [3]. Spot and Basis - Corn Spot: Qinggang was priced at 2240, up 10; Jiagibio - chemical at 2090, unchanged; Zhucheng Xingmao at 2484, unchanged; Shouguang at 2430, up 10; Jinzhou Port at 2350, up 30; Nantong Port at 2470, up 30; and Guangdong Port at 2450, up 10. The basis ranged from - 164 to 80 [3]. - Starch Spot: Longfeng was priced at 2750, unchanged; COFCO at 2750, unchanged; Cargill at 2820, unchanged; Yufeng at 2940, unchanged; Jinyu - mi at 2950, unchanged; Zhucheng Xingmao at 2970, unchanged; and Hengren Industry and Trade at 2920, up 40. The basis ranged from 69 to 289 [3]. Spreads - Corn Inter - delivery Spreads: C01 - C05 was - 17, down 3; C05 - C09 was - 101, down 3; C09 - C01 was 118, up 6. - Starch Inter - delivery Spreads: CS01 - CS05 was 1, unchanged; CS05 - CS09 was - 94, down 2; CS09 - CS01 was 93, up 2. - Cross - variety Spreads: CS09 - C09 was 371, down 2; CS01 - C01 was 396, up 2; CS05 - C05 was 378, down 1 [3]. Second Part: Market Judgment Corn - US corn is weak due to accelerated planting progress and tariff adjustments. Import profits are still available, and domestic corn prices are affected by factors such as port price increases, regional supply - demand imbalances, and wheat substitution. Short - term prices are expected to rise, but the futures market may decline [5][7]. Starch - Shandong corn price increases have affected starch prices. Starch inventory has decreased, and prices depend on corn and downstream stocking. Starch enterprises are in a loss, and short - term futures have limited rebound space [8]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Domestic 07 corn is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Long positions should be closed, as there is a risk of a decline in the futures market [10]. - Arbitrage: Buy spot and short 07 corn. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch when it is low, and conduct oscillatory operations [13]. Fourth Part: Option Strategies - Enterprises with spot positions should sell corn call options [14]. Fifth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of various price indicators such as regional corn spot prices, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spread [16][19][21].
行业开机连续下滑 玉米淀粉价格近期议价为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-29 08:34
Group 1 - The spot price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin, is reported at 2730.00 CNY/ton, which is 54.00 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 2676.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market for corn starch closed at 2676.00 CNY/ton on May 29, with an increase of 0.83%, reaching a high of 2679.00 CNY/ton and a low of 2657.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 101,623 contracts [2] - As of May 23, the operating rate of starch enterprises is at 55.88%, with inventories higher than last year and increasing losses for enterprises [4] Group 2 - According to Nanhua Futures research, transactions in the North China region are sluggish, primarily driven by downstream demand, with market negotiations being the main transaction method [5] - In South China, corn starch transaction prices are highly variable, with significant fluctuations in transactions, and a strong competitive bidding situation for Northeast supplies expected in the short term [5] - The industry is experiencing a continuous decline in operating rates, although there is a slight decrease in inventory due to improved downstream demand for starch sugar, while production remains in a loss-making zone [5]