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国信期货玉米周报:进入节前平淡期,玉米窄幅波动-20260206
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 09:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Past week, corn spot prices fluctuated and adjusted, with overall small fluctuations, and the Northeast production area was weaker than North China; futures fluctuated in a narrow range and showed a stalemate; the basis increased slightly, while the C03 - C05 spread decreased slightly. The weakness of the March contract was mainly due to concerns about the selling pressure in spring and the lack of demand support after the downstream restocking was completed. As of February 5, the national corn sales progress reached 63%, significantly higher than in previous years, which was conducive to alleviating the post - Spring Festival selling pressure. The feed demand was resilient, but enterprises had limited motivation to significantly increase inventory under the expectation of capacity reduction; the demand of deep - processing enterprises was expected to remain weak. The inventory in the north and south ports was low, providing some support. The futures market was slightly at a discount, and there was some support for the downstream of corn. The operation strategy was to treat it as a volatile market [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook - **Corn Futures Market Changes**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Spot Market Changes**: Past week, corn spot prices fluctuated and adjusted, with overall small fluctuations, and the Northeast production area was weaker than North China [7] - **Corn Spot Market: Regional Price Difference**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Selling Progress**: As of February 5, the national corn sales progress reached 63%, significantly higher than in previous years, and the progress in the Northeast production area was significantly higher than that in North China [7] - **Corn Import**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Feed and Livestock Breeding Demand**: The livestock and poultry inventory in the breeding industry was high, so the feed demand was resilient, but enterprises had limited motivation to significantly increase inventory under the expectation of capacity reduction [7] - **Feed and Livestock Breeding Demand: Feed Output**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Deep - processing Demand**: Deep - processing enterprises' inventory had returned to a neutral level after recent restocking. Considering the poor deep - processing profit, the later - stage demand was expected to remain weak [7] - **Substitutes**: Not detailed in the provided content - **North Port Corn Dynamics**: The inventory in the north port increased, but the absolute level was still low [7] - **South Port Grain Dynamics**: The inventory in the south port was also at a low level [7] 3.2 Domestic Corn Starch Market Dynamics - **Corn Starch Futures**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Starch Spot**: A table of data was provided, but no specific analysis was given [82] - **Corn - Starch Price Difference**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Starch Production and Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Starch Downstream Demand**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Cassava Starch**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 International Corn Market Dynamics - **US Corn Futures Market**: Not detailed in the provided content - **US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazilian Corn Crop Progress**: Not detailed in the provided content
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251127
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 09:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the U.S. corn harvest is nearly finished, with high supply pressure and relatively loose global and U.S. soybean supply - demand, suppressing international corn prices. In China, in the Northeast, low - temperature is conducive to new grain storage, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the tight transportation capacity restricts the outward movement of grain, supporting the bottom price. With the recovery of processing profits and the increase in the start - up rate, the consumption of corn is increasing, and the purchase prices of deep - processing and feed enterprises are rising. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the quality of new grain varies, the selling rhythm of farmers is slow, and the market trading is inactive, with the purchase prices of enterprises slightly adjusted. The corn futures price is generally in a strong shock, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [2]. - For corn starch, as the supply of raw corn is abundant with the increase in new - season corn listing, and the industry start - up rate is rising, the supply - side pressure increases. However, the downstream demand is good, and after the large increase in tapioca starch price, some downstream customers turn to corn starch, increasing the demand. The starch inventory of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and the futures price has risen in tandem with the corn market, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2243 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2572 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): 8 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 21 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. - Futures positions (active contract): 968502 lots for yellow corn, down 29094 lots; 243202 lots for corn starch, up 1454 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 182690 lots for corn, up 2936 lots; - 33837 lots for corn starch, up 2936 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 62515 lots for yellow corn, down 3000 lots; 10195 lots for corn starch, down 500 lots [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 369 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 446.25 cents/bushel, up 8 cents; total CBOT corn positions (weekly): 1596361 lots, up 46302 lots; non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): - 92353 lots, down 11046 lots [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2325.29 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2590 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; free - on - board price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged; CIF price of imported corn: 2021.13 yuan/ton, down 3.85 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 0 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis of the corn starch main contract: 39, up 35; basis of the corn main contract: 82.29, up 1.02; spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly): 454 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; spread between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 229 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 427.11 million hectares, up 1.85 million hectares; forecasted yield of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil (monthly): 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Brazil (monthly): 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina (monthly): 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Argentina (monthly): 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in China (monthly): 295 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in China (monthly): 44.3 million tons, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine (monthly): 32 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 272.7 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 134 million tons, up 10 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 106.9 million tons, down 4 million tons; monthly import volume of corn: 6 million tons, up 2 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 12.78 thousand tons, down 2.02 thousand tons; monthly output of feed: 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 26.23 days, up 0.62 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 138.31 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; alcohol enterprise start - up rate (weekly): 69.45%, up 2.16%; starch enterprise start - up rate (weekly): 61.38%, up 0.49%; corn starch processing profit in Shandong (daily): 8 yuan/ton, unchanged; corn starch processing profit in Hebei (daily): 107 yuan/ton, unchanged; corn starch processing profit in Jilin (daily): - 3 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.05%, down 0.02%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 8.5%, up 0.02%; implied volatility of at - the - money call option of corn (daily): 12.81%, up 1.99%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option of corn (daily): 12.81%, up 1.99% [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect that the net sales volume of U.S. corn exports in the week ending October 16, 2025, for the 2025/26 season is between 1.4 million and 2.5 million tons [2]. - Dr. Michael Cordonnier, a crop expert, says that the 2025/26 corn yield in Argentina is expected to be 54 million tons, higher than the 53 million tons predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture [2]. Key Points to Watch - The weekly consumption of corn and the start - up and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3]
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251030
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 12:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the corn market, in the US, as the corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the estimated corn yield this year is lower than the previous USDA forecast, and the expectation of a Sino - US trade agreement boosts the market. In China, in the Northeast, the corn yield has increased significantly, but the purchase price has slightly decreased with the increase in new grain supply. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market supply has slightly declined due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and feed enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The corn futures price has weakened again after a slight rebound, maintaining a low - level volatile consolidation [2]. - For the corn starch market, the increase in new - season corn supply weakens the cost support for corn starch, and the substitution advantage of tapioca starch squeezes the market demand. However, the industry's operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years, and the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased. The starch market fluctuates synchronously with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of domestic yellow corn is 2111 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 81914 hands, down 5324 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 63966 hands; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 434.5 cents/bushel, up 2.75 cents [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2419 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54064 hands, up 4667 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 12504 hands; the main - contract CS - C spread is 337 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn: The total weekly position is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2242.16 yuan/ton, down 0.59 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1974.15 yuan/ton, up 0.3 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 427.11 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares respectively, and the predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, 32 million tons respectively, with no changes [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: 480,000 tons in southern ports, 1.04 million tons in northern ports, 2.334 million tons in deep - processing enterprises, up 298,000 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: 1.128 million tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.05%, a monthly decline of 0.97%, and a year - on - year increase of 36.89% [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output is 3.1287 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: 120 yuan/ton in Shandong, 119 yuan/ton in Hebei, 105 yuan/ton in Jilin [2]. - Operating rate: 61.67% for alcohol enterprises, 58.86% for starch enterprises, up 3.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.48%, down 0.43 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.25%, up 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.24%, up 0.74 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.25%, up 0.75 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn in the week ending October 23, 2025, to be between 1.1 million and 2.1 million tons [2]. - As of October 27, the planting progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's Paraná state is 98%, up from 94% last week [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]