研究所 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 现货区域分化 期货近强远弱 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年09月12日 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货走势显著分化，东北地区现货表现偏强，黑龙江深加工企业门前到车量虽有所回升，但仍处于偏低水平，显 示流通余粮偏紧；华北地区现货较弱，山东深加工企业门前到车大幅增加，持粮主体在新玉米上市前加快出货，而深加工企业 压价意愿较强。港口现货总体表现为偏震荡。基本面来看，国内新玉米大量上市将近，因产量预期有所增加，加之成本下降， 贸易商对即将到来的上市压力较为担忧，以加快出货为主。但东北余粮偏紧，加之北方港口去库较快，库存绝对水平已经回到 近年低位，对港口现货形成一定支撑。需求端来看，仔猪价格近期下跌明显，仔猪销售利润进入亏损区间，加上政策层面也试 图推进行业有序去产能，对未来饲料需求形成悲观预期；深加工利润持续不佳，淀粉开机率下降，对玉米需求偏弱。因此，尽 管饲料企业及深加工企业原料库存都已经下降到低位，但在下游需求较差及新玉米大量上市临近的关口，其低库存策略仍会延 续。综合来看，国内余 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For corn, the market is bearish. International factors such as high US corn good - rate and favorable weather for growth are pressuring prices. Domestically, multiple factors like import reserve auctions, falling international grain prices, and lower new - season corn costs lead to a pessimistic outlook. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are trending down [8]. - For corn starch, the market is also bearish. With increasing industry operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is an obvious oversupply situation. Inventory is rising, and futures prices are oscillating weakly at a low level [12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: - Strategy: Trade bearishly [7]. - Market review: The main 2509 contract closed at 2255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: US corn good - rate is high, and domestic factors lead to a pessimistic outlook. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are trending down [8]. - **Corn Starch**: - Strategy: Participate bearishly [11]. - Market review: The main 2509 contract closed at 2642 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Outlook: Operating rates are rising, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Futures prices are oscillating weakly at a low level [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: - Corn: The September contract closed down with oscillations. Total positions were 659,407 lots, down 87,309 lots from the previous week [18]. - Corn Starch: The September contract closed down with narrow - range oscillations. Total positions were 145,811 lots, down 12,545 lots from the previous week [18]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: - Corn: The top 20 net position was - 28,678, compared to - 20,885 last week, an increase in net short positions [24]. - Corn Starch: The top 20 net position was - 5,893, compared to - 18,086 last week, a decrease in net short positions [24]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: - Corn: Registered warehouse receipts were 144,037 [30]. - Corn Starch: Registered warehouse receipts were 7,450 [30]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: - Corn: As of August 7, 2025, the average spot price was 2395.49 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average was + 140 yuan/ton [35]. - Corn Starch: The spot price in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the September contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 208 yuan/ton [39]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: - Corn: The 9 - 1 spread was 84 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45]. - Corn Starch: The 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: - The September contract spread was 387 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [55]. - **Substitute Spread**: - As of July 31, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 36.48 yuan/ton. In the 32nd week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch continued to narrow to 117 yuan/ton, a contraction of 23 yuan/ton from last week [60]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Corn - Supply**: - Port Inventory: As of August 1, 2025, Guangdong Port's domestic corn inventory was 89.2 tons, up 1.00 tons from last week; foreign trade inventory was 0.4 tons, down 0.30 tons. Northern four - port inventory was 190.5 tons, down 20.1 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 24 tons, down 15.30 tons week - on - week [49]. - Import Volume: In June 2025, ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a decrease of 760,000 tons (82.61%) from the same period last year and 30,000 tons from the previous month [68]. - Feed Company Inventory: As of August 7, the average inventory of national feed companies was 30.44 days, down 0.14 days from last week, a 0.46% week - on - week decrease and a 3.40% year - on - year increase [72]. - **Corn - Demand**: - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of Q2 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous period, 103.7% of the normal level [76]. - Breeding Profit: As of August 1, 2025, self - breeding and self - raising pig profit was 43.85 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 116.78 yuan/head [80]. - Processing Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 64 yuan/ton. As of August 8, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 615 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 594 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 225 yuan/ton [85]. - **Corn Starch - Supply**: - Enterprise Inventory: As of August 6, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.643 million tons, a 4.06% decrease [89]. - Operating Rate and Inventory: From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 560,500 tons, up 15,400 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 278,500 tons, up 10,700 tons; the operating rate was 53.83%, up 2.07%. As of August 6, the total corn starch inventory was 1.32 million tons, up 27,000 tons from last week, a 2.09% week - on - week increase, a 0.69% month - on - month increase, and a 14.48% year - on - year increase [93]. 3.4 Option Market As of August 8, the implied volatility of the corn main 2509 contract was 9.68%, down 0.08% from the previous week. The implied volatility oscillated narrowly and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [96].

研究所 进口玉米拍卖压制 市场表现走弱 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年07月13日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货震荡调整，期货继续下跌，北港基差小幅走强。基本面来看，国内新作玉米天气较好，暂无炒作题材；旧作 余粮继续消耗，各环节库存减少。但中储粮进口玉米连续拍卖、小麦在部分地区继续维持替代优势，加之市场担忧中国会采购 美国农产品，缓解市场了未来供应紧张的担忧。持粮主体挺价心理开始松动，出货意愿增强，7月主产区深加工企业日均门前 到车数量环比增加明显。需求端，饲料产量同比增加，但国产玉米添加比例下降削弱了饲料产量增加的利多成分，深加工企业 利润不佳，开机率下降。总体来看，近期国内玉米市场缺乏新的利多提振，而进口玉米接连拍卖继续压制市场，预计短期偏弱 震荡运行，后续关注进口玉米投放节奏。操作上，短线交易。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 1. ...

Report Title - "Surplus Grain Supply Tightens, Corn Trends Strongly - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - June 15, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, the spot price of corn rose widely, market sentiment warmed up significantly, and terminal buyers increased their purchasing prices. The futures market rebounded rapidly and then entered a consolidation phase. Near - month contracts were generally stronger than far - month contracts, and the C09 - C01 spread widened. Fundamentally, domestic surplus grain tightened further, and the increase in imported arrivals was limited, strengthening market expectations of a supply gap. The start of the minimum purchase price for wheat alleviated market concerns, and although wheat still had a cost - performance advantage over corn, the substitution might not be enough to make up for the gap. The inventory at north and south ports decreased significantly, verifying the expectation of tightened surplus grain. Overall, corn is expected to fluctuate and trend upwards in the future. Follow - up attention should be paid to policy grain auctions and the price ratio of substitutes. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels [7] Summary by Directory 1. Corn Futures Market Changes - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Starch Futures Market Changes - Not detailed in the provided content 3. Corn Spot Market Changes - The report provides price data for different regions including national, northeast, north - China, and south - China average prices, as well as prices in specific cities such as Harbin, Changchun, etc. For example, the national average price rose from 2301 to 2333, the northeast average price rose from 2205 to 2251, the north - China average price rose from 2361 to 2378, and the south - China average price rose from 2460 to 2494 [28] 4. Corn Spot Market: Regional Spreads - Not detailed in the provided content 5. Starch Spot Market Changes - The report provides price data from May 29 to June 12. For example, on May 29, the prices were 2650, 2700, 2740, 2860, 2850, and on June 12, they were 2650, 2700, 2740, 2870, 2880 [42] 6. Corn Starch Spreads - Not detailed in the provided content 7. Corn Selling Progress - Not detailed in the provided content 8. Corn Imports - Not detailed in the provided content 9. Feed and Livestock Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 11. Deep - processing Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 12. Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 13. Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 14. Starch Apparent Consumption - Not detailed in the provided content 15. Substitutes - Not detailed in the provided content 16. North Port Corn Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 17. South Port Corn Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 18. South Port Grain Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 19. US Corn Futures Market - Not detailed in the provided content 20. US Corn Planting and Growth Progress - Not detailed in the provided content 21. US Corn Export Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 22. Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not detailed in the provided content