玉米市场分析
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国信期货玉米周报:进入节前平淡期,玉米窄幅波动-20260206
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 09:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Past week, corn spot prices fluctuated and adjusted, with overall small fluctuations, and the Northeast production area was weaker than North China; futures fluctuated in a narrow range and showed a stalemate; the basis increased slightly, while the C03 - C05 spread decreased slightly. The weakness of the March contract was mainly due to concerns about the selling pressure in spring and the lack of demand support after the downstream restocking was completed. As of February 5, the national corn sales progress reached 63%, significantly higher than in previous years, which was conducive to alleviating the post - Spring Festival selling pressure. The feed demand was resilient, but enterprises had limited motivation to significantly increase inventory under the expectation of capacity reduction; the demand of deep - processing enterprises was expected to remain weak. The inventory in the north and south ports was low, providing some support. The futures market was slightly at a discount, and there was some support for the downstream of corn. The operation strategy was to treat it as a volatile market [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook - **Corn Futures Market Changes**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Spot Market Changes**: Past week, corn spot prices fluctuated and adjusted, with overall small fluctuations, and the Northeast production area was weaker than North China [7] - **Corn Spot Market: Regional Price Difference**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Selling Progress**: As of February 5, the national corn sales progress reached 63%, significantly higher than in previous years, and the progress in the Northeast production area was significantly higher than that in North China [7] - **Corn Import**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Feed and Livestock Breeding Demand**: The livestock and poultry inventory in the breeding industry was high, so the feed demand was resilient, but enterprises had limited motivation to significantly increase inventory under the expectation of capacity reduction [7] - **Feed and Livestock Breeding Demand: Feed Output**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Deep - processing Demand**: Deep - processing enterprises' inventory had returned to a neutral level after recent restocking. Considering the poor deep - processing profit, the later - stage demand was expected to remain weak [7] - **Substitutes**: Not detailed in the provided content - **North Port Corn Dynamics**: The inventory in the north port increased, but the absolute level was still low [7] - **South Port Grain Dynamics**: The inventory in the south port was also at a low level [7] 3.2 Domestic Corn Starch Market Dynamics - **Corn Starch Futures**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Starch Spot**: A table of data was provided, but no specific analysis was given [82] - **Corn - Starch Price Difference**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Starch Production and Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Corn Starch Downstream Demand**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Cassava Starch**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 International Corn Market Dynamics - **US Corn Futures Market**: Not detailed in the provided content - **US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazilian Corn Crop Progress**: Not detailed in the provided content
新粮销售分化,玉米阶段回调明显
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 08:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is experiencing a significant phased correction, with the main corn contract shifting to 2603 and prices dropping, while the starch market is also in a continuous correction phase [3]. - There is phased selling pressure in the market due to re - auctions of imported corn and price drops, and new grain sales show regional differentiation [3]. - Port inventories are low, and downstream enterprises are increasing their inventories [4]. - There is a lack of grain substitution, and corn imports rebounded in October [4]. - The external US corn market is oscillating, with global corn ending stocks slightly decreasing [4]. - Feed demand is relatively strong, and deep - processing demand is fair [5]. - There is phased selling pressure, new grain sales are relatively fast, and there is an expectation of a shortage of high - quality grain in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Price and Basis - The main corn contract shifted to 2603 and prices recently dropped significantly, almost erasing previous gains. The spot price also slightly decreased, with the Pingcang price at Bayuquan Port dropping from 2,320 yuan/ton to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the arrival price at Shekou Port dropping from 2,460 yuan/ton to 2,430 yuan/ton. The corn basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures discount widened [3]. - The main starch contract shifted to 2603 and prices continuously corrected. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu decreased slightly from 2,820 yuan/ton to 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened oscillatingly [3]. 3.2 New Grain Sales - Re - auctions of imported corn dampened the price - rising enthusiasm in the market, causing futures prices to drop significantly and phased sales to increase. As of December 18, the national new grain sales progress was 42%, 4% faster than the same period last year. There was obvious regional differentiation, with the progress in the Northeast being 41%, 8% faster than the same period last year; the progress in North China being 37%, 1% slower than the same period last year; and the progress in the Northwest being 60%, 2% faster than the same period last year [3]. 3.3 Inventory Status - As of December 12, the corn inventory at northern ports was 1.792 million tons, continuing to rise but far lower than the same period last year. The weekly shipping volume was 684,000 tons, decreasing month - on - month. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 191,000 tons, rising month - on - month; the foreign trade corn inventory was 262,000 tons, slightly increasing month - on - month [4]. - As of December 19, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.24 million tons, continuously rising but lower than the same period last year. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 29.98 days, continuously rising [4]. 3.4 Import Situation - The wheat - corn price difference narrowed to around 160, and there was still no feasibility for substitution. In October, domestic corn imports rebounded significantly, with 359,000 tons imported, a five - fold increase month - on - month and a 114.7% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 1.292 million tons, a 90.2% decrease year - on - year. Imports of barley and other grains decreased month - on - month [4]. 3.5 External Market Conditions - The US corn market has recently been oscillating. The US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report increased US corn exports and decreased its ending stocks, but overall, there is still pressure from increased production and inventory compared to last year. Global corn ending stocks were slightly decreased, a 4.85% decrease compared to last year [4]. 3.6 Market Demand - **Feed demand**: Pig prices are low, and pig farming continues to suffer large losses. As of December 19, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 189.5 yuan per head, with losses narrowing; the profit from self - breeding and self - raising was - 130.88 yuan per head, with losses narrowing. The production capacity of breeding sows continued to decline, with 39.9 million breeding sows in stock in October, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The egg price is low, and poultry farming continues to suffer losses. In October, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, rising month - on - month and a 6% increase year - on - year [5]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The processing profit of starch processing enterprises is differentiated, and the operating rate is relatively stable. As of December 19, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 62.31%, slightly decreasing month - on - month. The starch inventory was 1.074 million tons, rising month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises continue to suffer losses, and the operating rate has decreased to 65.22%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises has increased, while that of paper - making enterprises has decreased [5]. 3.7 Market Outlook - There is phased selling pressure, new grain sales are relatively fast, and there is an expectation of a shortage of high - quality grain in the future. Grain - using enterprises are advised to purchase spot goods at low prices and appropriately increase safety reserves; traders are advised to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. Attention should be paid to the low - price opportunities of the 2605 contract [5].
玉米周报:下游补库支撑,玉米偏强震荡-20251128
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 11:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, corn futures rose significantly, with the main contract C2601 reaching 2,257 yuan/ton and then entering a high - level oscillation, up over 2% for the week. The C1 - C5 spread first strengthened and then declined. The spot market was generally oscillating strongly. The sales progress in the production areas continued to advance, and the grain - selling progress in the Northeast production area accelerated. Considering this season's yield increase, there was still an ample supply of remaining grain in the production areas. On the demand side, the domestic breeding profit was in the red, and the future demand for feed was not optimistic, but the short - term rigid demand remained strong due to the high存栏 of livestock and poultry. The profit of the deep - processing sector was low, and the operating rate was constrained, but the de - stocking of starch had accelerated recently, which might have a positive impact on deep - processing demand later. In terms of inventory, the inventory of feed enterprises increased this week, but the inventory of feed enterprises in the Southwest was still at a low level, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio of deep - processing enterprises was also low. There was still room for the inventory of downstream grain - using enterprises to increase. The inventory of southern grains was being depleted faster, and the inventory at the northern ports was also low. Overall, the current low downstream inventory was still a supporting factor for corn, but there was still pressure to sell grain before the Spring Festival, and market expectations would be volatile. The operation should be treated with an oscillating view [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook 3.1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Corn futures rose significantly in the past week, with the main contract C2601 reaching 2,257 yuan/ton and then entering a high - level oscillation, up over 2% for the week. The C1 - C5 spread first strengthened to - 11 and then fell back to around - 30 [7]. 3.1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - The spot market was generally oscillating strongly. At the beginning of the week, the northern ports and southern sales areas rose significantly, and in the later part of the week, the Northeast production area was stronger than other regions [7]. 3.1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread - Due to the strengthening of the southern and northern ports, the spread of shipping from the Northeast production area to the south through the ports turned positive [7]. 3.1.4 Corn Selling Progress - The sales progress in the production areas continued to advance, and the grain - selling progress in the Northeast production area accelerated. Considering this season's yield increase, there was still an ample supply of remaining grain in the production areas [7]. 3.1.5 Corn Import - Not provided in the given content 3.1.6 Feed and Breeding Demand - The domestic breeding profit was in the red, and the future demand for feed was not optimistic, but the short - term rigid demand remained strong due to the high存栏 of livestock and poultry [7]. 3.1.7 Feed and Breeding Demand: Feed Production - Not provided in the given content 3.1.8 Deep - processing Demand - The profit of the deep - processing sector was low, and the operating rate was constrained, but the de - stocking of starch had accelerated recently, which might have a positive impact on deep - processing demand later [7]. 3.1.9 Substitutes - Not provided in the given content 3.1.10 Northern Port Corn Dynamics - The inventory at the northern ports was low [7]. 3.1.11 Southern Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided in the given content 3.1.12 Southern Port Grain Dynamics - The inventory of southern grains was being depleted faster [7]. 3.2 Corn Starch Market Dynamics 3.2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided in the given content 3.2.2 Corn Starch Spot - Not provided in the given content 3.2.3 Corn - Starch Spread - Not provided in the given content 3.2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content 3.2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided in the given content 3.2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided in the given content 3.3 International Corn Market Dynamics 3.3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided in the given content 3.3.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress - Not provided in the given content 3.3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided in the given content 3.3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided in the given content
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251127
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 09:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the U.S. corn harvest is nearly finished, with high supply pressure and relatively loose global and U.S. soybean supply - demand, suppressing international corn prices. In China, in the Northeast, low - temperature is conducive to new grain storage, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the tight transportation capacity restricts the outward movement of grain, supporting the bottom price. With the recovery of processing profits and the increase in the start - up rate, the consumption of corn is increasing, and the purchase prices of deep - processing and feed enterprises are rising. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the quality of new grain varies, the selling rhythm of farmers is slow, and the market trading is inactive, with the purchase prices of enterprises slightly adjusted. The corn futures price is generally in a strong shock, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [2]. - For corn starch, as the supply of raw corn is abundant with the increase in new - season corn listing, and the industry start - up rate is rising, the supply - side pressure increases. However, the downstream demand is good, and after the large increase in tapioca starch price, some downstream customers turn to corn starch, increasing the demand. The starch inventory of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and the futures price has risen in tandem with the corn market, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2243 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2572 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): 8 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 21 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. - Futures positions (active contract): 968502 lots for yellow corn, down 29094 lots; 243202 lots for corn starch, up 1454 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 182690 lots for corn, up 2936 lots; - 33837 lots for corn starch, up 2936 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 62515 lots for yellow corn, down 3000 lots; 10195 lots for corn starch, down 500 lots [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 369 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 446.25 cents/bushel, up 8 cents; total CBOT corn positions (weekly): 1596361 lots, up 46302 lots; non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): - 92353 lots, down 11046 lots [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2325.29 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2590 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; free - on - board price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged; CIF price of imported corn: 2021.13 yuan/ton, down 3.85 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 0 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis of the corn starch main contract: 39, up 35; basis of the corn main contract: 82.29, up 1.02; spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly): 454 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; spread between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 229 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 427.11 million hectares, up 1.85 million hectares; forecasted yield of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil (monthly): 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Brazil (monthly): 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina (monthly): 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Argentina (monthly): 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in China (monthly): 295 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in China (monthly): 44.3 million tons, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine (monthly): 32 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 272.7 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 134 million tons, up 10 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 106.9 million tons, down 4 million tons; monthly import volume of corn: 6 million tons, up 2 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 12.78 thousand tons, down 2.02 thousand tons; monthly output of feed: 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 26.23 days, up 0.62 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 138.31 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; alcohol enterprise start - up rate (weekly): 69.45%, up 2.16%; starch enterprise start - up rate (weekly): 61.38%, up 0.49%; corn starch processing profit in Shandong (daily): 8 yuan/ton, unchanged; corn starch processing profit in Hebei (daily): 107 yuan/ton, unchanged; corn starch processing profit in Jilin (daily): - 3 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.05%, down 0.02%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 8.5%, up 0.02%; implied volatility of at - the - money call option of corn (daily): 12.81%, up 1.99%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option of corn (daily): 12.81%, up 1.99% [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect that the net sales volume of U.S. corn exports in the week ending October 16, 2025, for the 2025/26 season is between 1.4 million and 2.5 million tons [2]. - Dr. Michael Cordonnier, a crop expert, says that the 2025/26 corn yield in Argentina is expected to be 54 million tons, higher than the 53 million tons predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture [2]. Key Points to Watch - The weekly consumption of corn and the start - up and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3]
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251030
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 12:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the corn market, in the US, as the corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the estimated corn yield this year is lower than the previous USDA forecast, and the expectation of a Sino - US trade agreement boosts the market. In China, in the Northeast, the corn yield has increased significantly, but the purchase price has slightly decreased with the increase in new grain supply. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market supply has slightly declined due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and feed enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The corn futures price has weakened again after a slight rebound, maintaining a low - level volatile consolidation [2]. - For the corn starch market, the increase in new - season corn supply weakens the cost support for corn starch, and the substitution advantage of tapioca starch squeezes the market demand. However, the industry's operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years, and the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased. The starch market fluctuates synchronously with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of domestic yellow corn is 2111 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 81914 hands, down 5324 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 63966 hands; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 434.5 cents/bushel, up 2.75 cents [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2419 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54064 hands, up 4667 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 12504 hands; the main - contract CS - C spread is 337 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn: The total weekly position is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2242.16 yuan/ton, down 0.59 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1974.15 yuan/ton, up 0.3 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 427.11 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares respectively, and the predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, 32 million tons respectively, with no changes [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: 480,000 tons in southern ports, 1.04 million tons in northern ports, 2.334 million tons in deep - processing enterprises, up 298,000 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: 1.128 million tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.05%, a monthly decline of 0.97%, and a year - on - year increase of 36.89% [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output is 3.1287 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: 120 yuan/ton in Shandong, 119 yuan/ton in Hebei, 105 yuan/ton in Jilin [2]. - Operating rate: 61.67% for alcohol enterprises, 58.86% for starch enterprises, up 3.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.48%, down 0.43 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.25%, up 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.24%, up 0.74 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.25%, up 0.75 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn in the week ending October 23, 2025, to be between 1.1 million and 2.1 million tons [2]. - As of October 27, the planting progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's Paraná state is 98%, up from 94% last week [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]
玉米远月不悲观
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:52
玉米主力01合约止跌反弹。现货仍承压下行,鲅鱼圈玉米平舱价由2180元/吨跌至2150元/吨附近;蛇口港玉米到港 价由2370元/吨跌至2310元/吨附近。玉米基差震荡走弱,接近平水。 淀粉主力11合约震荡偏弱。潍坊金玉米淀粉价格由2850元/吨跌至2800元/吨附近,基差震荡走弱。 (1)连绵阴雨致华北等地受灾,东北增产上量压力。近一个月的连绵阴雨天气下,华北、西北、黄淮等地机收困 难,多人工采收;且无法及时晾晒、脱粒,多有发霉现象。尽管政府已进行救灾援助,不过已受损玉米难以恢复。10月 18号后阴雨天气渐消,华北等地玉米收获或加速,玉米或逐渐上量。农户对发霉玉米只能低价出售,因毒素超标无法饲 用,且深加工企业也有毒素要求,或造成后期优质玉米供应紧张。而东北天气好,增产集中上量压力大。区域价格分化 或延续。 (2)渠道库存见底,下游企业开始采购。据钢联数据:截至10月10日,北港玉米库存为85.2万吨,止降回升;周 度下海量为58.1万吨,环比续增。广东港内贸玉米库存为19.3万吨,见底;外贸玉米库存为19.4万吨,环比回升。下游 企业库存不一,深加工企业陆续到车,饲企继续下降;截至10月17日,深加工企业 ...
国信期货玉米周报:现货区域分化,期货近强远弱-20250912
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 07:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The corn spot price showed significant regional differentiation in the past week, with the spot price in Northeast China being relatively strong and that in North China being weak. The port spot price was generally volatile. The domestic new corn is about to be listed in large quantities. Although the remaining domestic grain is tight, the market may maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the short term. It is recommended to treat it with a weak shock [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook - **Corn Futures Market Changes**: Not provided in the content - **Corn Spot Market Changes**: The spot price in Northeast China was strong. The arrival of trucks at the door of deep - processing enterprises in Heilongjiang increased but remained at a low level, indicating tight remaining grain in circulation. The spot price in North China was weak. The arrival of trucks at the door of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong increased significantly, and grain - holding entities accelerated the shipment before the new corn was listed, while deep - processing enterprises had a strong willingness to lower prices. The port spot price was generally volatile [7]. - **Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread**: Not provided in the content - **Corn Selling Progress**: Not provided in the content - **Corn Import**: Not provided in the content - **Feed and Aquaculture Demand**: The piglet price has dropped significantly recently, and the profit of piglet sales has entered the loss range. Coupled with the policy - level attempt to promote the orderly reduction of production capacity in the industry, it forms a pessimistic expectation for future feed demand [7]. - **Feed and Aquaculture Demand: Feed Production**: Not provided in the content - **Deep - processing Demand**: The deep - processing profit has been poor, the starch startup rate has decreased, and the demand for corn is weak [7]. - **Substitutes**: Not provided in the content - **North Port Corn Dynamics**: The inventory at the northern port has decreased rapidly, and the absolute inventory level has returned to a low level in recent years, which provides some support for the port spot price [7]. - **South Port Corn Dynamics**: Not provided in the content - **South Port Grain Dynamics**: Not provided in the content 3.2 Corn Starch Market Dynamics - **Corn Starch Futures**: Not provided in the content - **Corn Starch Spot**: Not provided in the content - **Corn - Starch Spread**: Not provided in the content - **Corn Starch Production and Inventory**: Not provided in the content - **Corn Starch Downstream Demand**: Not provided in the content - **Cassava Starch**: Not provided in the content 3.3 International Corn Market Dynamics - **US Corn Futures Market**: Not provided in the content - **US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress**: Not provided in the content - **US Corn Export Sales**: Not provided in the content - **Brazilian Corn Crop Progress**: Not provided in the content
玉米类市场周报:现货市场疲弱,期货价格再度走低-20250808
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 10:00
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For corn, the market is bearish. International factors such as high US corn good - rate and favorable weather for growth are pressuring prices. Domestically, multiple factors like import reserve auctions, falling international grain prices, and lower new - season corn costs lead to a pessimistic outlook. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are trending down [8]. - For corn starch, the market is also bearish. With increasing industry operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is an obvious oversupply situation. Inventory is rising, and futures prices are oscillating weakly at a low level [12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: - Strategy: Trade bearishly [7]. - Market review: The main 2509 contract closed at 2255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: US corn good - rate is high, and domestic factors lead to a pessimistic outlook. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are trending down [8]. - **Corn Starch**: - Strategy: Participate bearishly [11]. - Market review: The main 2509 contract closed at 2642 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Outlook: Operating rates are rising, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Futures prices are oscillating weakly at a low level [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: - Corn: The September contract closed down with oscillations. Total positions were 659,407 lots, down 87,309 lots from the previous week [18]. - Corn Starch: The September contract closed down with narrow - range oscillations. Total positions were 145,811 lots, down 12,545 lots from the previous week [18]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: - Corn: The top 20 net position was - 28,678, compared to - 20,885 last week, an increase in net short positions [24]. - Corn Starch: The top 20 net position was - 5,893, compared to - 18,086 last week, a decrease in net short positions [24]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: - Corn: Registered warehouse receipts were 144,037 [30]. - Corn Starch: Registered warehouse receipts were 7,450 [30]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: - Corn: As of August 7, 2025, the average spot price was 2395.49 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average was + 140 yuan/ton [35]. - Corn Starch: The spot price in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the September contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 208 yuan/ton [39]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: - Corn: The 9 - 1 spread was 84 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45]. - Corn Starch: The 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: - The September contract spread was 387 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [55]. - **Substitute Spread**: - As of July 31, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 36.48 yuan/ton. In the 32nd week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch continued to narrow to 117 yuan/ton, a contraction of 23 yuan/ton from last week [60]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Corn - Supply**: - Port Inventory: As of August 1, 2025, Guangdong Port's domestic corn inventory was 89.2 tons, up 1.00 tons from last week; foreign trade inventory was 0.4 tons, down 0.30 tons. Northern four - port inventory was 190.5 tons, down 20.1 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 24 tons, down 15.30 tons week - on - week [49]. - Import Volume: In June 2025, ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a decrease of 760,000 tons (82.61%) from the same period last year and 30,000 tons from the previous month [68]. - Feed Company Inventory: As of August 7, the average inventory of national feed companies was 30.44 days, down 0.14 days from last week, a 0.46% week - on - week decrease and a 3.40% year - on - year increase [72]. - **Corn - Demand**: - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of Q2 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous period, 103.7% of the normal level [76]. - Breeding Profit: As of August 1, 2025, self - breeding and self - raising pig profit was 43.85 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 116.78 yuan/head [80]. - Processing Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 64 yuan/ton. As of August 8, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 615 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 594 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 225 yuan/ton [85]. - **Corn Starch - Supply**: - Enterprise Inventory: As of August 6, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.643 million tons, a 4.06% decrease [89]. - Operating Rate and Inventory: From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 560,500 tons, up 15,400 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 278,500 tons, up 10,700 tons; the operating rate was 53.83%, up 2.07%. As of August 6, the total corn starch inventory was 1.32 million tons, up 27,000 tons from last week, a 2.09% week - on - week increase, a 0.69% month - on - month increase, and a 14.48% year - on - year increase [93]. 3.4 Option Market As of August 8, the implied volatility of the corn main 2509 contract was 9.68%, down 0.08% from the previous week. The implied volatility oscillated narrowly and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [96].
国信期货玉米周报:进口玉米拍卖压制,市场表现走弱-20250713
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-13 03:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the corn spot price fluctuated and adjusted, the futures continued to decline, and the basis of the northern port strengthened slightly. The domestic new - crop corn has good weather with no speculation topics, and the old - crop grain reserves are being consumed with reduced inventories at all levels. However, the continuous auction of imported corn by the China Grain Reserves Corporation, the continued substitution advantage of wheat in some areas, and the market's concern about China's potential purchase of US agricultural products have alleviated concerns about future supply shortages. The price - holding mentality of grain holders has loosened, and their willingness to sell has increased. In July, the average daily number of trucks arriving at the doorsteps of deep - processing enterprises in the main producing areas increased significantly month - on - month. On the demand side, the feed output increased year - on - year, but the decrease in the proportion of domestic corn added weakened the positive impact of the increase in feed output. The profits of deep - processing enterprises were poor, and the operating rate decreased. Overall, the domestic corn market lacks new positive incentives recently, and the successive auctions of imported corn continue to suppress the market. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of imported corn. For operation, short - term trading is recommended. [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 International Corn Market Dynamics - **1.1 US Corn Futures Market**: Not provided in the content - **1.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress**: Not provided in the content - **1.3 US Corn Export Sales**: Not provided in the content - **1.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress**: Not provided in the content 3.2 Domestic Corn Market Dynamics - **2.1 Corn Futures Market Changes**: Not provided in the content - **2.2 Corn Spot Market Changes**: Not provided in the content - **2.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread**: Not provided in the content - **2.4 Corn Selling Progress**: Not provided in the content - **2.5 Corn Import**: Not provided in the content - **2.6 Feed and Aquaculture Demand**: Not provided in the content - **2.7 Feed and Aquaculture Demand: Feed Output**: Not provided in the content - **2.8 Deep - processing Demand**: The profits of deep - processing enterprises are poor, and the operating rate decreases [7] - **2.9 Substitutes**: Wheat has a substitution advantage in some areas [7] - **2.10 Northern Port Corn Dynamics**: The basis of the northern port strengthened slightly [7] - **2.12 Southern Port Grain Dynamics**: Not provided in the content 3.3 Corn Starch Market Dynamics - **3.1 Corn Starch Futures**: Not provided in the content - **3.2 Corn Starch Spot**: Not provided in the content - **3.3 Corn - Starch Spread**: Not provided in the content - **3.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory**: Not provided in the content - **3.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand**: Not provided in the content - **3.6 Cassava Starch**: Not provided in the content
国信期货玉米周报:余粮供应趋紧,玉米走势偏强-20250615
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 02:34
Report Title - "Surplus Grain Supply Tightens, Corn Trends Strongly - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - June 15, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, the spot price of corn rose widely, market sentiment warmed up significantly, and terminal buyers increased their purchasing prices. The futures market rebounded rapidly and then entered a consolidation phase. Near - month contracts were generally stronger than far - month contracts, and the C09 - C01 spread widened. Fundamentally, domestic surplus grain tightened further, and the increase in imported arrivals was limited, strengthening market expectations of a supply gap. The start of the minimum purchase price for wheat alleviated market concerns, and although wheat still had a cost - performance advantage over corn, the substitution might not be enough to make up for the gap. The inventory at north and south ports decreased significantly, verifying the expectation of tightened surplus grain. Overall, corn is expected to fluctuate and trend upwards in the future. Follow - up attention should be paid to policy grain auctions and the price ratio of substitutes. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels [7] Summary by Directory 1. Corn Futures Market Changes - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Starch Futures Market Changes - Not detailed in the provided content 3. Corn Spot Market Changes - The report provides price data for different regions including national, northeast, north - China, and south - China average prices, as well as prices in specific cities such as Harbin, Changchun, etc. For example, the national average price rose from 2301 to 2333, the northeast average price rose from 2205 to 2251, the north - China average price rose from 2361 to 2378, and the south - China average price rose from 2460 to 2494 [28] 4. Corn Spot Market: Regional Spreads - Not detailed in the provided content 5. Starch Spot Market Changes - The report provides price data from May 29 to June 12. For example, on May 29, the prices were 2650, 2700, 2740, 2860, 2850, and on June 12, they were 2650, 2700, 2740, 2870, 2880 [42] 6. Corn Starch Spreads - Not detailed in the provided content 7. Corn Selling Progress - Not detailed in the provided content 8. Corn Imports - Not detailed in the provided content 9. Feed and Livestock Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 11. Deep - processing Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 12. Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 13. Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 14. Starch Apparent Consumption - Not detailed in the provided content 15. Substitutes - Not detailed in the provided content 16. North Port Corn Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 17. South Port Corn Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 18. South Port Grain Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 19. US Corn Futures Market - Not detailed in the provided content 20. US Corn Planting and Growth Progress - Not detailed in the provided content 21. US Corn Export Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 22. Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not detailed in the provided content