1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum followed gold's upward trend and then declined, while palladium oscillated at a low amplitude. The macro - economic situation in the US, including inflation and labor market conditions, along with potential Fed rate - cut expectations, provided support for precious metal prices. In the short - term, the prices of platinum and palladium are more responsive to the macro - economic and news factors rather than fundamental factors. [4][5] - The overall trading strategy for platinum and palladium is to take a long - position approach. For arbitrage, consider going long on platinum and short on palladium, and keep an eye on the Fed's December FOMC meeting and the US's investigation and evaluation of sanctions on Russian palladium. [5][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Macro - economic situation**: US macro - data showed ongoing inflation pressure and a weakening labor market. The 9 - month core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, and the November ADP employment report indicated a significant decline in private - sector employment. Trump's hint about a potential Fed chair and the dovish signals in the market strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut, weakening the US dollar and supporting precious metal prices. [4] - **Fundamentals**: High - frequency fundamental data for platinum and palladium are limited. From a quarterly and annual perspective, both metals are in a tight - balance situation. The demand gap for platinum will remain, while that for palladium is gradually improving. Attention should be paid to US sanctions on Russian palladium. [4] - **Futures market**: This week, platinum and palladium futures followed gold's upward movement and then oscillated. Platinum had a larger amplitude, and palladium followed at a relatively low amplitude. London platinum is supported in the range of $1520 - 1600, and London palladium in the range of $1390 - 1420. [5] - **Trading strategies**: For single - side trading, take a long - position approach for platinum and palladium. For arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium. For options, stay on the sidelines. [7] 3.2 Trading and Arbitrage Data Tracking - **Trading volume**: As of December 5, the total open interest of the PT contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 12,510 lots, a net increase of 3,584 lots, with a weekly trading volume of about 48.019 billion yuan. The total open interest of the PD contract was 3,347 lots, a net increase of 650 lots, with a weekly trading volume of about 22.281 billion yuan. [24] - **Arbitrage**: For platinum, there is no arbitrage condition for buying SGE spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts, but there is an arbitrage condition for buying London platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts. For palladium, there are arbitrage conditions for both buying domestic palladium spot and London palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts. [28] 3.3 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Platinum supply and demand**: It is expected that both supply and demand for platinum will decline in 2025, but there will still be a supply - demand gap of 26 tons, causing the above - ground inventory to decline for the third consecutive year to 93 tons, equivalent to about 4.5 months of demand. The demand structure is relatively healthy, and future price increases may require intensified structural spot shortages or further digestion of above - ground inventory. [33][34] - **Palladium supply and demand**: Both supply and demand for palladium are expected to decline in 2025. The decline in demand is greater than that in supply, with a supply - demand gap of 0.5 tons, indicating a tight - balance state. The demand tension is relatively better than that of platinum. The above - ground inventory of palladium is about 350 tons, equivalent to 14 months of demand. Fundamental factors may have limited support for palladium prices, and future price fluctuations may be more affected by macro - environment, price linkage with platinum, market sentiment, and structural spot shortages. [37] - **CFTC positions**: The document provides charts of the net long positions of platinum and palladium asset - management institutions, as well as the changes in the net short positions of commercial institutions, but no specific data analysis is given. [40][45] - **Inventory**: CME platinum inventory decreased by 1,614.377 ounces, and CME palladium inventory increased by 3,481.141 ounces. [51][56] - **Lease rates**: The document provides charts of the annualized lease rates of platinum and palladium for different terms, but no specific data analysis is given. [60][63]

Group 1 - Palladium futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 387.35 yuan, with a current price of 383.05 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.31% [1] - Overall demand for palladium is limited, with macroeconomic factors influencing its price, particularly the strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2] - The market sentiment is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, which may provide some support for palladium prices despite limited demand growth [3] Group 2 - Supply-side changes are influenced by tight electricity supply in South Africa and geopolitical tensions in Russia, impacting the palladium market [3] - The palladium market is transitioning from a supply shortage to a potential oversupply, with expectations of a more relaxed supply-demand balance [3] - The basic fundamentals for palladium do not provide sufficient driving force for price increases, indicating a potential risk of price correction [2]