固定收益 | 固定收益专题 三季度理财"赎了"哪些基金？ 证券研究报告 信用策略随笔 2025 年理财三季度报已基本披露完毕，据此我们重点总结以下几点： 一、三季度理财投向了哪些资产？ 理财规模如何？截至2025Q3，理财产品投资资产规模达34.44 万亿元， 环比增加 1.47 万亿元；杠杆率约 106.7%，环比小幅下降。 配了哪些资产？理财持有的资产包括债券 40.4%、现金及银行存款 27.5%、同业存单 13.1%、拆放同业及债券买入返售 6.9%、非标准化债权类 资产 5.2%、基金 3.9%、权益类资产 2.1%、其他 0.9%。 增持了什么？相较于 2025Q2，理财增加对以下资产的持仓：现金及 银行存款+1.29 万亿元、拆放同业及债券买入返售+0.20 万亿元、债券+0.13 万亿元、其他+0.01 万亿元。 减持了什么？相较于 2025Q2，理财减少对以下资产的持仓：权益类 资产-0.07 万亿元、基金 -0.04 万亿元、同业存单-0.04 万亿元、非标准化 债权类资产-0.02 万亿元。 二、三季度理财"赎了"哪些基金，又买了哪些？ 截至 2025 年 Q3，理财持有的基金规模合计约 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the banking industry's wealth management products are experiencing increased potential net value volatility due to the end of valuation adjustments, with limited means to cope with market fluctuations [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the scale of the wealth management industry reached 32.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a cumulative growth of 2.2 trillion yuan or 7.3% since the beginning of the year, which, while lower than the 9.9% growth in the same period of 2024, outperforms the average growth rate of 5.1% over the past six years [1] - The decline in retail deposit pricing, which has decreased by approximately 30-44 basis points since the beginning of the year, has enhanced the cost-effectiveness of wealth management products, contributing to their stable performance [1] Group 2 - In response to regulatory pressures and reduced floating profits, wealth management institutions have increased their allocation to deposit assets, with the proportion rising by 2.7 percentage points to 27.5%, reaching a record high of 9.4 trillion yuan [2] - The allocation to bonds and credit bonds has reached historical lows at 40.4% and 37.5% respectively, indicating that wealth management has not provided incremental funds to the credit bond market in Q2-Q3 [2] Group 3 - In Q3, the allocation to certificates of deposit and public funds decreased by 0.7 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 13.1% and 3.9% respectively, while equity allocation also saw a reduction, with the equity position dropping by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1% [3] - The total cash and fixed-income products reached 31.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 97% of the total, while equity-mixed and commodity derivatives remained at a historical low of 0.9 trillion yuan [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The bank wealth - management industry has entered the era of wealth - management companies, with regulatory requirements approaching those of the public fund industry. The scale of wealth management increased in 25Q2 compared to 25Q1, and the net - breaking rate decreased slightly in 25Q2 but increased since late July. The industry increased its allocation to public funds in 25H1, mainly increasing positions in money - market and bond funds in 25Q2 [2][6][10]. - Different types of wealth - management companies have different performance and asset - allocation characteristics. Large - bank wealth - management companies generally increased their allocation to public funds, and their overall scale and proportion of public - fund investment rose. Joint - stock bank wealth - management companies also generally increased their allocation to public funds and slightly increased their allocation to deposit - type assets. Most urban and rural commercial bank wealth - management companies increased their allocation to deposit - type and public - fund assets and reduced their allocation to bond assets [37][39][42]. - The indirect investment ratio of wealth - management companies has increased in recent years, which may be related to the configuration of deposits through insurance asset management and trust plans and bond investment through SPV [45]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. 25H1 Wealth - Management Scale Steady Growth 1.1 Bank Wealth Management Enters the Era of Wealth - Management Companies - Regulatory requirements for bank wealth management are getting closer to those of the public fund industry. Since 2018, a series of regulatory policies have been introduced, narrowing the gap between the two industries. As of September 2025, 32 wealth - management companies have been approved for establishment and all are in operation. It is expected that there will be about 40 wealth - management companies in the future, and small and medium - sized banks without wealth - management companies will gradually withdraw from the wealth - management business [6][10]. - In the first half of 2025, the net profit of wealth - management companies showed stable growth. The overall net profit increased by 1.7% year - on - year, with large - bank and joint - stock bank wealth - management companies seeing growth of 7.2% and 0.2% respectively, while urban and rural commercial bank wealth - management companies' net profit decreased by 7.3% [12]. 1.2 25Q2 Wealth - Management Scale Slightly Increased Compared to 25Q1 - As of June 2025, the wealth - management scale was 30.67 trillion yuan. In 25Q1, the scale decreased by 0.8 trillion yuan, and in 25Q2, it increased by about 1.5 trillion yuan. In July 2025, the scale increased seasonally, and the growth slowed down in August [15][17]. - In 25Q2, the wealth - management scale of most wealth - management companies increased, with large - bank, joint - stock bank, and urban and rural commercial bank wealth - management companies seeing increases of 7.8%, 4.6%, and 10.9% respectively compared to 25Q1. By type, the scale of fixed - income and hybrid products of various wealth - management companies increased in Q2 compared to Q1 (except for the hybrid products of joint - venture wealth - management companies) [20][23]. - The net - breaking rate of wealth - management products decreased slightly in 25Q2 but increased since late July. As of September 14, 2025, the net - breaking rate of public wealth - management products of wealth - management companies was about 2.28%, higher than that at the beginning of the year. The average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies has been declining [25][28]. 2. Bank Wealth Management Increased Allocation to Public Funds in 25H1 2.1 Wealth Management's Investment Proportion in Public Funds Increased Significantly in 25Q2 - In 25H1, bank wealth - management products increased their allocation to public funds. As of June 2025, the proportion of bank wealth - management products invested in bonds, deposits, non - standard assets, equities, and public funds was 55.6%, 24.8%, 5.5%, 2.4%, and 4.2% respectively, with changes of - 1.8, + 1.5, - 0.1, - 0.2, + 1.2 percentage points compared to 25Q1 [32]. - In 25Q2, most wealth - management companies increased their allocation to public funds. Bohai Bank Wealth Management and Huaxia Bank Wealth Management had relatively large increases in the proportion of public - fund investment [33]. 2.2 Asset - Allocation Changes of Wealth - Management Companies' Wealth Management in the First Half of 2025 - Large - bank wealth - management companies generally increased their allocation to public funds, with the total scale rising to 0.4 trillion yuan and the proportion rising to 3.8%. Except for Jianxin and Jiaotong Wealth Management, the proportion of deposit - type assets decreased, and except for Jianxin and Nongyin Wealth Management, the proportion of bond assets decreased [37]. - Joint - stock bank wealth - management companies generally increased their allocation to public funds, with the overall proportion rising from 2.6% at the end of 2024 to 3.8%. Bohai Bank Wealth Management and Huaxia Bank Wealth Management had relatively large increases in the proportion of public - fund investment. They also slightly increased their allocation to deposit - type assets [39]. - Most urban and rural commercial bank wealth - management companies increased their allocation to deposit - type and public - fund assets and reduced their allocation to bond assets. The three urban and rural commercial bank wealth - management companies with the highest proportion of public - fund allocation were Qingyin, Huiyin, and Shangyin [42]. - The indirect investment ratio has increased. As of H1 2025, the indirect investment scale of 20 wealth - management companies was 10.97 trillion yuan, accounting for 65.8%, and the proportion has increased in recent years [45]. 3. Wealth Management Increased Allocation to Money - Market and Bond Funds in 25Q2 - In 25Q2, the scale of wealth management's allocation to public funds increased significantly. As of June 2025, the scale was about 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.2%, the highest since 2020, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to 25Q1 [49]. - Bond funds are still the main type of public funds allocated by bank wealth management. In 25Q2, bank wealth management mainly increased its allocation to money - market and bond funds, with increases of about 0.05 trillion yuan and 0.29 trillion yuan respectively. It reduced its allocation to hybrid, stock, and alternative investment funds, and slightly reduced its allocation to REITs and QDII/international funds [50]. - In terms of the breakdown of bond funds, in 25Q2, the investment proportion of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds and first - class hybrid bond funds decreased, while the investment proportion of passive index - type bond funds and short - term pure - bond funds increased. In 25Q2, wealth management increased its allocation to medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, and passive index - type bond funds by 0.08, 0.1, and 0.1 trillion yuan respectively [55]. - Wealth - management products prefer to invest in bond funds with large scales. The top three bond funds in terms of wealth - management holdings as of June 2025 were Fuguo Two - Year Financial Management Bond, Huitianfu Changtianli Fixed - Open Bond, and Huitianfu China Bond Preferred Investment - Grade Credit Bond Index Initiation [62]. - In terms of the breakdown of stock and hybrid funds, in 25Q2, the investment proportion of flexible - allocation funds increased, while the investment proportion of passive index - type and common stock funds decreased. The investment scale in stock and hybrid funds decreased, with reductions of about 100 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 70 million yuan in flexible - allocation, passive index - type, and partial - debt hybrid funds respectively [64]. - Wealth management's investment in stock and hybrid funds prefers flexible - allocation and passive index - type funds. As of June 2025, the top three stock and hybrid funds in terms of wealth - management holdings were Penghua Hongkang Hybrid, Guangfa Anying Hybrid, and Dongfanghong CSI Dongfanghong Dividend Low - Volatility Index [69]. 4. Differences in Public - Fund Investment of Different Types of Wealth Management - Fixed - income wealth management has the largest absolute scale of public - fund holdings, while hybrid and equity wealth management have relatively high proportions of public - fund allocation. As of June 2025, fixed - income and hybrid wealth management held public funds worth 1.22 trillion yuan and 0.08 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 90.1% and 5.98% of the total public - fund investment scale of wealth management. The proportion of public - fund investment in hybrid wealth management was about 11%, higher than the 5% of fixed - income wealth management [71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][29]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management market saw a net increase of 0.72 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with the total balance exceeding 30 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.4% growth since the beginning of the year [2][3]. - The average annualized yield of wealth management products was 2.12% in the first half of 2025, supported by a loose monetary policy and a decline in bond market yields [2][3]. - The report highlights a trend of "disintermediation," where funds are increasingly flowing from deposits to wealth management products, driven by lower deposit rates and a favorable bond market environment [3][25]. Summary by Sections Scale Changes - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total balance of wealth management products reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a quarterly increase of 1.53 trillion yuan, although this was lower than the same period last year [2][3]. - The increase in wealth management scale was primarily driven by a supportive monetary policy and a decline in deposit rates, which encouraged a shift towards wealth management products [3][4]. Product Characteristics - Fixed income products accounted for 97.2% of the total wealth management product balance, with a slight increase in the proportion of mixed and equity products due to improved market conditions [14][19]. - Open-ended products contributed 86.1% of the scale increase in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong investor preference for liquidity and redemption convenience [11][12]. Asset Allocation - The report notes a shift towards high liquidity assets, with significant increases in cash and bank deposits, while credit bonds saw a decrease in holdings [18][19]. - The allocation to public funds rose significantly, with a balance of 1.38 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a growing preference for flexible investment options [19][21]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the disintermediation trend will continue, but potential market disturbances may arise as the valuation adjustment process nears completion [25][26]. - There is an emphasis on enhancing net asset value resilience through diversified asset allocation strategies, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [26][27].