Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Trends Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently experiencing a significant decline in pig prices, with national average prices dropping below 5.5 yuan per kilogram, leading to severe losses for breeding enterprises [1][2][3] - Factors contributing to the price drop include a sharp decrease in slaughter volumes post-holiday, delayed market entry of breeding enterprises, and environmental pressures in southern regions causing unsold piglets [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: The average price of pigs has fallen sharply from a peak of 7 to 7.5 yuan per kilogram in the first half of 2025 to below 5.5 yuan, indicating a significant market downturn [2] - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: It is anticipated that pig supply will continue to increase in Q4 2025 and the first half of 2026, while consumer demand remains limited, leading to a pessimistic outlook among breeding enterprises [5][6] - **Breeding Strategies**: Breeding enterprises are expected to increase their slaughter volumes to dilute costs, with no reduction in overall output anticipated [6][12] - **Market Sentiment**: Smallholders are still engaging in speculative buying despite low prices, indicating a high-risk market environment [8] Additional Important Points - **Future Price Predictions**: Prices are expected to remain volatile, with October potentially being the lowest point of Q4, followed by a slight improvement in November due to seasonal demand [9][16] - **Piglet Prices**: The price of piglets is projected to continue declining, with a bottom index for 7 kg piglets estimated between 100 to 120 yuan, indicating further room for price drops [3][10] - **Culling Trends**: The current high prices for culling sows suggest that the market has not yet seen significant capacity reduction, as prices should ideally reflect a lower market equilibrium [7][11] - **Environmental Regulations**: Strict environmental policies in southern regions are exacerbating market pressures, leading to difficulties in breeding and increased need for culling to alleviate housing pressures [18] Conclusion The swine industry is facing a challenging environment characterized by declining prices, increased supply, and limited demand. Breeding enterprises are adapting by increasing slaughter volumes, but the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic. The interplay of environmental regulations and market dynamics will continue to shape the industry's trajectory in the coming months.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Viewpoints - After the double holiday, pig prices have rapidly declined to below 12 yuan/kg, with self-breeding and self-raising profitability dropping to -152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 47.2 yuan/head from the previous week. The pressure from high supply is expected to continue to weigh on pig prices, leading to increased market pessimism and a potential for further price declines. However, there is an expectation for a mid-to-long-term price reversal driven by policy and proactive production cuts [1][15][19] - The average selling price of lean pigs nationwide is 11.39 yuan/kg, down 6.1% from last week. The current valuation remains relatively low, suggesting investment opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2][16] - In poultry farming, the price of white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from last week, while the average price of chicken products remains stable at 8.65 yuan/kg. The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 0.6% to 3.22 yuan each. There are expectations for a price rebound in the chicken market [2][16][34] Summary by Sections Livestock - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.48 kg, showing a 0.5% increase from the low point in early August. Feed prices have also increased, indicating a gradual rise in pig inventory since July [1][15] - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising pigs is -152.15 yuan/head, while the profitability of purchased piglets is -301.04 yuan/head, indicating significant losses in the sector [19][20] Poultry - The price of yellow feather chickens has seen a week-on-week increase of 1.9%, with the current price at 14.18 yuan/kg. This suggests seasonal price elasticity opportunities [2][16][40] - The profitability of parent breeding chickens is 0.47 yuan/head, while the profitability of meat chickens is -2.23 yuan/head, reflecting challenges in the poultry sector [38][44] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as prices and profit distribution become clearer [2][16] Feed and Vaccines - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [2][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a downward trend in pig prices across China, with 27 provinces reporting price drops on October 9, 2025, and an average national price of 11.67 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20 yuan from the previous day [1][3] - The average price difference for external three-way pigs across 21 major regions is approximately 0.56 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous day, but below the average transportation cost of 0.49 yuan per kilogram [1] - The market is under pressure due to a combination of concentrated supply release post-holiday and a decline in consumer demand, with most provinces seeing prices drop below 12 yuan per kilogram, leading to a prevailing bearish sentiment [3]