Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently facing significant challenges, with the average price of live pigs dropping to 9.6 CNY/kg, marking a historical low, and average losses per head reaching 350-400 CNY, indicating a deep loss phase [1][4] - The price of piglets has also fallen below the cost line of 280 CNY, disrupting cash flow for breeding farms and signaling an accelerated reduction in breeding sow capacity [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Sentiment and Stock Performance**: Recent stock price declines in the swine breeding sector are attributed to market panic rather than fundamental issues within the industry. Concerns over liquidity and risk appetite have led to significant sell-offs, particularly in companies with high institutional holdings [2] - **Production Capacity Concerns**: The market is worried about the potential rapid reduction of breeding sow capacity, drawing parallels to previous cycles in 2022 and 2024 where capacity rebounded quickly after price recoveries. Current signals suggest a more pronounced capacity reduction in the coming months [3][4] - **Price Signals**: The current price of live pigs and piglets indicates a challenging market environment. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is at a four-year high, while demand is decreasing due to seasonal weather changes [4] - **Cost Pressures**: The industry is expected to see a more than 5% year-on-year increase in breeding costs in 2026, driven by rising feed prices, declining production efficiency, and reduced capacity utilization [5] Additional Important Points - **Future Price Expectations**: There is a limited expectation for piglet price rebounds in April and May due to downward adjustments in futures contracts and rising breeding costs, which may suppress restocking enthusiasm [5] - **Forward-Looking Indicators**: The price and discount rate of culling sows are critical indicators for assessing the speed of capacity reduction. A discount rate below 70% could confirm an acceleration in the culling of breeding sows, with rates below 50% indicating a severe capacity purge [6] - **Current Market Conditions**: The current discount rate for culling sows is around 70%, suggesting the industry may be at the beginning of a capacity reduction phase. Observing changes in this rate will be crucial for identifying potential investment opportunities in the sector [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for live pig sales is progressing slowly, with a divergence in performance among leading enterprises. Supply is expected to remain loose in the coming six months [4] - The cash flow pressure in the industry is significant, with expectations of deep losses in the second quarter as both live pigs and piglets may face substantial deficits [4][56] - The industry is currently at a cyclical bottom, with cash flow continuously depleting and pessimistic expectations accelerating capacity reduction [82] Summary by Sections 1. Sales Volume - The industry sales progress in February was below expectations, with a completion rate of only 95%. March is expected to see a 25% increase in planned sales compared to February [8] - The actual sales volume for February was 21.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 19% but a month-on-month decrease of 22% [16] - The estimated theoretical total output of commodity pigs for the first half of 2026 is expected to increase by 7.84% year-on-year [8] 2. Pig Prices and Profits - February pig prices showed a decline of 24% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month, with average profits turning negative at -99 yuan per head [56] - The price of piglets saw a seasonal increase in February, but the sentiment for replenishment is expected to weaken [59] - The price difference between fattened pigs and market pigs expanded seasonally but remains lower year-on-year [63] 3. Production Capacity - The breeding stock showed a slight increase in February, but the industry is expected to face ongoing cash flow issues leading to accelerated capacity reduction [76] - As of December 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, indicating a persistent overcapacity issue [79] - The industry is advised to optimize capacity by eliminating low-yield sows and enhancing the breeding of high-efficiency pigs [79] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that it is an opportune time to invest in leading breeding enterprises during this low cycle phase [82] - Recommended companies include DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs, among others [84]

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Farming Sector Industry Overview - The swine farming sector is currently facing significant challenges due to persistently low pork prices, leading to industry losses for over five months. Major players like Muyuan Foods are experiencing cash flow pressures. [1][2] - The expected price range for pork in March is between 10-11 CNY/kg, with a historical high average slaughter weight of 125 kg indicating weak demand for large pigs. [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - **Production Capacity and Supply Trends**: - The breeding sow inventory is approximately 39.6 million heads, with a potential reduction of 3.1 million heads to 36.5 million due to policy adjustments and limitations on large group expansions. This reduction will significantly impact supply. [1][3] - The industry is in a critical phase of capacity clearance, with cash flow pressures becoming widespread among leading companies, including Muyuan Foods. [2] - **Market Dynamics**: - The slaughtering sector is experiencing high inventory levels (60%-70%), primarily due to poor sales leading to passive storage. This could result in concentrated market sell-offs in June and July. [1][9] - The price of cull sows has dropped to approximately 7 CNY/kg, attracting slaughterhouses due to cost advantages, which partially offsets price declines. [1][5] - **Price Expectations**: - The consensus among industry participants is that pork prices are likely to remain weak until at least May, with potential for a slight rebound in mid-March due to secondary fattening expectations. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious. [4][10] - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the second half of 2026, with some expecting a recovery in prices to 14-16 CNY/kg, while others remain pessimistic due to ongoing supply pressures. [4] Additional Important Insights - **Culling Trends**: - The culling of sows is accelerating, but not to the extent of panic selling. The structure of culling has shifted towards younger sows (3-4 litters), while older sows (4-5 litters) are being culled more frequently. [5] - **Cash Flow Risks**: - The industry is monitoring "weight reduction" as a key indicator of cash flow risks. A significant drop in average slaughter weight could indicate severe cash flow issues. [6] - **Piglet Market**: - The current price for piglets is around 340 CNY/head, with profitability still present despite declining transaction volumes. The focus is on the late March period, which is typically a peak for restocking. [7][11] - **Regional Insights**: - In the Linyi region, the expansion of free-range farming is expected to stabilize in 2026, with risk management tools like hedging and price insurance being utilized to mitigate losses. [8] Recommendations - The swine farming sector is currently at a historical valuation low, suggesting a potential investment opportunity. Key recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Shennong Group, with additional focus on flexible stocks like Juxing Agriculture and Lihua Agricultural. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term market sentiment fluctuations lead to wide price swings, and prices still face downward pressure in the medium to long term [8][78]. - The inventory of breeding sows has reached a new low, but it is still 1.6% higher than the reasonable industry level. The market expects the pace of capacity reduction to accelerate [8][78]. - The core contradiction in the pig market is that the reduction of effective pig production capacity is weaker than the decline in the number of breeding sows. The effect of capacity reduction cannot be realized in the short term, and the slaughter volume remains high. The release of previously back - pressured pigs in late January will increase short - term supply pressure [8][78]. - The boosting effect on the demand side is lagging. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, pre - festival stocking has not fully started, and downstream procurement willingness will decline significantly after the festival, restricting the upward movement of pig prices [8][78]. - In the short term, positive market sentiment will drive a slight recovery in pig prices, but the fundamental supply - demand pattern has not changed substantially, and the medium - to - long - term upward space for pig prices may be limited, with a risk of subsequent decline [8][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Concerns about the continued pressure of pig slaughter in the first half of the year led to concentrated selling in the futures market. The main LH2603 contract of live hog futures closed at 11,565 yuan/ton last Friday, up 0.26% [5][14]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the pig price first rose and then fell, with the weekly average price moving up. The national average live hog slaughter price was 12.87 yuan/kg, a 1.42% increase from the previous week [7][18]. - The average weekly price of 7kg piglets was 343.33 yuan/head, a 11.09% increase from the previous week and a 28.94% decrease year - on - year. The increase was due to farmers' pre - festival early replenishment to control costs, rigid replenishment by group farms, and capacity reduction in some regions [21]. - The average price of 50kg binary sows was 1431 yuan/head, with low replenishment enthusiasm among reserve farmers and a light trading atmosphere [24]. - The price of culled sows increased with the recovery of pig prices. The national average price was 9.77 yuan/kg, a 2.84% increase from the previous week and a 12.38% decrease year - on - year. Farmers were reluctant to cull sows [27]. 3.1.3. Spread Situation - Since January, the basis between live hog futures and spot has continued to widen. As of last Friday, the basis was 1575 yuan/ton. The spot price was supported by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, while the futures 03 contract faced a seasonal consumption off - season after the Spring Festival, with expected increased slaughter and a supply - demand pattern that could suppress prices [30]. - The national standard - fat spread was - 0.75 yuan/kg last week, a 0.11 yuan/kg increase from the previous week. Cold weather increased the consumption of large pigs and external shipments, supporting the price of fat pigs, while the standard pig market was weak during the peak season [33]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month, the lowest in the past five years but still 101.6% of the normal level. In December 2025, the inventory of breeding sows in sample large - scale farms was 5.0202 million, a 0.18% decrease from the previous month and a 0.47% decrease year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 167,660, a 1.19% decrease from the previous month and a 1.54% decrease year - on - year [37][40]. - **Live Hog Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a 0.5% increase from the end of 2024. In December 2025, the inventory of 7 - 49kg piglets accounted for 32.97%, 50 - 89kg pigs accounted for 29.03%, 90 - 140kg pigs accounted for 36.50%, and pigs over 140kg accounted for 1.51%, with month - on - month changes of 0.00%, - 0.07%, - 0.12%, and 4.46% respectively [47]. - **Pork Production**: Since 2024, supported by industrial policies and the development of large - scale farming, pork production has been on the rise. In 2024, it was 57.06 million tons, and in 2025, it increased to 59.38 million tons, a 4.1% increase and a record high [51]. - **Sow Culling**: In December 2025, due to sporadic pig diseases and the optimization of sow production capacity, the culling volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms was 115,814, a 3.06% increase from the previous month and an 18.80% increase year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 11,518, a 0.75% decrease from the previous month and a 5.47% increase year - on - year [54]. - **Live Hog Slaughter**: In December 2025, the slaughter rhythm of breeding enterprises accelerated. The slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.7829 million, a 3.68% increase from the previous month and a 6.64% increase year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 548,000, a 6.39% increase from the previous month and a 13.67% increase year - on - year. As of January 20, 2026, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises was 64.94%, slower than expected [59][63]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 35.18%, a 0.73% decrease from the previous week and an 8.19% decrease year - on - year. The increase in procurement costs and bad weather led to the decline [67]. - **Frozen Product Storage Rate and Fresh Sales Rate**: Last week, the fresh sales rate of domestic slaughtering enterprises was 87.43%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; the frozen product storage rate was 17.3%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. The market did not have inventory backlogs, and the supply - demand rhythm was relatively stable [71]. 3.2.3. Cost - Profit Situation - Last week, the domestic pig - breeding industry turned profitable, and the pressure on farmers was relieved. The average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising model was 63.5 yuan, and in the model of purchasing piglets, it was 37.85 yuan [77]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The short - term market sentiment will drive a slight recovery in pig prices, but the medium - to - long - term upward space is limited, and there is a risk of subsequent decline [8][78]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term, and adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [10][79]. - **Arbitrage**: Near - month contracts may continue to fluctuate at the bottom due to the loose supply pattern, while far - month contracts may get stronger support as the pressure from the current spot market is limited [10][80]. - **Options**: No operation suggestions [10][80].

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The swine farming sector is currently experiencing a surplus in supply, with slaughter volumes remaining high. However, this high slaughter volume has not effectively alleviated supply pressure due to low sales rates of culled sows, leading to significant quantities being stored in freezers. Actual supply pressure persists [1][5] - The disease situation in 2025 is severe, particularly in areas around Linyi, Shandong, where positivity rates are high. The disease's impact on prices is minimal, primarily influenced by farming density and concentration. National scale management of slaughter timing has mitigated the direct impact of diseases on slaughter volumes [1][6] Key Points on Disease Impact - The disease is concentrated in regions such as Tai'an and Linyi in Shandong, with a trend of spreading from north to south. The drop in temperature has increased the difficulty of disease control, with high farming density being a significant factor in the seasonal spread of diseases during winter [1][7][8] - The industry is undergoing a capacity adjustment, with leading and trailing enterprises gradually exiting the market, while mid-sized enterprises are easing capacity reduction. Cash flow pressures are widespread, with December and January being critical periods. Continued or expanded losses could lead to cash flow disruptions for enterprises [1][8] Financial and Market Dynamics - Mid-sized farming enterprises have not experienced significant changes in bank financing channels, although credit tightening has begun due to year-end profit situations. The price of culled sows remains firm, influenced by a decrease in the age of culled sows, leading to higher fresh sales [1][9][10] - The price of piglets has rebounded significantly, driven by delayed restocking in the north due to disease and substantial restocking in the south, indicating higher-than-expected sentiment for restocking [1][12] Price Outlook - It is anticipated that pork prices will reach the bottom of the breeding cycle before the Spring Festival in 2026, with key variables being the weight and scale of fattening. Effective reduction in these factors could minimize post-holiday price declines; otherwise, fundamental production capacity may lead to losses [2][13] - The current high slaughter volume has not resolved supply issues, as the sales rate of culled sows remains low, with only 40% being sold fresh [4][5] Future Considerations - The industry is expected to see a significant price bottom around the Spring Festival, with potential low prices post-holiday. The ability to reduce weight and scale before the holiday will be crucial in determining the extent of price declines [2][13] - The recent trend of secondary fattening has seen farms begin to exit the market, but most are currently operating at a loss due to low prices for large pigs [14] Regional Insights - The Shandong region's recent trend towards a free-range model is driven by a reduction in local sow numbers, relying on purchasing piglets from outside to meet supply needs [16]

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Trends Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently experiencing a significant decline in pig prices, with national average prices dropping below 5.5 yuan per kilogram, leading to severe losses for breeding enterprises [1][2][3] - Factors contributing to the price drop include a sharp decrease in slaughter volumes post-holiday, delayed market entry of breeding enterprises, and environmental pressures in southern regions causing unsold piglets [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: The average price of pigs has fallen sharply from a peak of 7 to 7.5 yuan per kilogram in the first half of 2025 to below 5.5 yuan, indicating a significant market downturn [2] - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: It is anticipated that pig supply will continue to increase in Q4 2025 and the first half of 2026, while consumer demand remains limited, leading to a pessimistic outlook among breeding enterprises [5][6] - **Breeding Strategies**: Breeding enterprises are expected to increase their slaughter volumes to dilute costs, with no reduction in overall output anticipated [6][12] - **Market Sentiment**: Smallholders are still engaging in speculative buying despite low prices, indicating a high-risk market environment [8] Additional Important Points - **Future Price Predictions**: Prices are expected to remain volatile, with October potentially being the lowest point of Q4, followed by a slight improvement in November due to seasonal demand [9][16] - **Piglet Prices**: The price of piglets is projected to continue declining, with a bottom index for 7 kg piglets estimated between 100 to 120 yuan, indicating further room for price drops [3][10] - **Culling Trends**: The current high prices for culling sows suggest that the market has not yet seen significant capacity reduction, as prices should ideally reflect a lower market equilibrium [7][11] - **Environmental Regulations**: Strict environmental policies in southern regions are exacerbating market pressures, leading to difficulties in breeding and increased need for culling to alleviate housing pressures [18] Conclusion The swine industry is facing a challenging environment characterized by declining prices, increased supply, and limited demand. Breeding enterprises are adapting by increasing slaughter volumes, but the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic. The interplay of environmental regulations and market dynamics will continue to shape the industry's trajectory in the coming months.

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently experiencing a significant decline in pig prices, dropping from 7.5 yuan/kg to 6.1-6.2 yuan/kg due to increased supply from prior stockpiling and new piglets entering the market [1][2][3] - The industry is expected to observe the selling conditions of breeding companies in October to determine the price bottom, with regions like Guangxi and Guizhou potentially seeing slight declines [1][2][3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Price Fluctuations**: Short-term price rebounds are anticipated, with increases of approximately 1-2 yuan/kg due to reduced weight profit margins leading to a decrease in market weight [1][4] - **Production Capacity Adjustment**: The industry is undergoing a capacity adjustment, with fattening capacity decreasing due to losses and a decline in demand for piglets. Small to medium-sized farms are under pressure and may resort to renting fattening facilities [1][5][6] - **Group Companies' Actions**: Some leading breeding enterprises have begun implementing capacity adjustment measures, while mid-tier and smaller companies face challenges in aligning development plans with ongoing projects [6][7] - **Market Dynamics**: The current price drop is attributed to increased supply rather than disease impacts, with the market showing signs of overcapacity [17][20] - **Environmental Policies**: Strict environmental regulations are significantly impacting the industry, particularly in high-density farming areas, leading to early sales of large pigs to comply with regulations [19][20][22] Additional Important Points - **Future Price Predictions**: Prices are expected to stabilize between 6-6.5 yuan/kg in the fourth quarter and into the first half of 2026, with a low operating range around 12-13 yuan/kg [2][17] - **Impact of Environmental Policies**: The enforcement of environmental policies has led to a notable decrease in feed sales and has forced many farms to sell off large pigs prematurely [20][22] - **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious sentiment among farmers regarding the future, with many waiting for price stabilization before engaging in secondary fattening [16][18] - **Piglet Price Trends**: Piglet prices have seen significant declines, but are unlikely to drop below 100 yuan due to insurance mechanisms in place [12][13] - **Mother Pig Market Changes**: The market for culling mother pigs has changed, with many younger sows being sold off due to the shift in breeding strategies among larger companies [14] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the swine industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current challenges, market dynamics, and future outlook.

Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. Considering the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may still have a slight increase by December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. It is recommended to consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. Summary by Directory Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices adjusted weakly and fluctuated. On September 26, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted weakly and fluctuated [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: The inter - monthly spreads adjusted fluctuately, and the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend due to the weak spot market [8][11]. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price adjusted weakly and fluctuated [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The pig price in Sichuan was relatively weak [16]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference adjusted fluctuately. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may increase the weight - gain willingness of scattered farmers [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight increased this week [26]. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million heads. Different data sources showed different trends in August, with some showing a slight increase and some a decrease [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows ran weakly. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the enthusiasm for capacity reduction [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In August, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in February next year [32]. - **Enthusiasm for Sow and Piglet Replenishment**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets ran weakly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million heads. The market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].