瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 生猪市场周报 缺乏指引，生猪震荡运行 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：059586778969 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：生猪价格震荡小跌，主力合约2603合约周度下跌0.21%。 行情展望：根据Mysteel数据显示，1月样本企业出栏计划环比下降。当前规模场出栏节奏较节后有 所恢复，但整体出栏量一般。需求端，元旦后，腌腊需求下降，且价格上涨后终端消费容忍度有限， 屠宰企业开工率从高位回落。总体来说，供应略有恢复但压力一般，需求处于旺季，但从高位有所回 落，供需呈现弱平衡态势，基本面变化不大，生猪价格以震荡为主。 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货震荡 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格震荡小跌，主力合约2603合约周度下跌0.21%。 4 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空减少，期货仓单918张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market still has certain supply pressure, and subsequent pig prices are expected to fluctuate with relatively limited changes [3]. - The futures market is mainly affected by the near - end spot price, and the overall situation will be in a fluctuating state with a relatively limited increase in supply pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week, with obvious supply pressure. Scale enterprises' slaughter volume remained stable, while ordinary farmers initially increased their slaughter volume and then resisted low prices. The number of second - fattening pigs increased, and the slaughter weight also rose, so the overall supply pressure still exists [3]. - In terms of demand, the weekly pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the frozen product inventory increased. Although the fresh - sale rate and price of pigs increased, the overall demand change was limited [3]. - In the futures market, pig prices continued to fall this week, and the futures market fluctuated. The main influencing factor was the near - end spot price. The subsequent supply pressure may increase slightly, and the market will mainly fluctuate [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country declined this week. In Northeast China, it was 12 - 12.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 - 0.5 yuan/kg; in North China, 12.13 - 12.22 yuan/kg, down 0.35 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, 11.93 - 12.02 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.55 yuan/kg; in East China, 11.95 - 12.45 yuan/kg, down 0.45 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, 11.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg; in Central China, 11.46 - 12.3 yuan/kg, down 0.55 - 0.8 yuan/kg; in South China, 11.07 - 12.36 yuan/kg, down 0.7 - 1 yuan/kg [8]. - The early - week market slaughter pressure increased, and the number of second - fattening pigs decreased. As prices fell, farmers' acceptance of low prices declined, and the supply pressure improved [8]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - In terms of slaughter, the early - week pig slaughter volume increased significantly, especially among ordinary farmers. The enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased initially and then increased as prices fell. Scale enterprises maintained a normal slaughter rhythm, and their monthly slaughter plan was adjusted down [9]. - The pig slaughter weight increased this week, and the price difference between large and small pigs decreased, partly due to the decrease in second - fattening. The overall supply pressure is expected to continue [9]. - In terms of consumption, the demand change was limited. The pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, the frozen product inventory increased, and the apparent consumption declined. However, the pig price was firm, and the fresh - sale rate increased, so the actual demand change was limited [9]. Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits increased slightly. As of the week of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, up 0.21 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 175.54 yuan/head, up 4.18 yuan/head from last week [15]. - Although pig prices continued to fall, the overall change was limited, and the cost decreased slightly, leading to a slight increase in breeding profits [15]. Sow & Piglet Prices - Piglet prices rebounded slightly. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 198 yuan/head, up 23 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 284 yuan/kg, up 19 yuan/head from last week. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was average [19]. - Sow prices also rebounded slightly. The sow price was 1546 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs increased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling decreased [19]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October decreased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample down 0.8% and scale enterprises down 0.77% [22]. - According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October increased 0.11% month - on - month, with scale enterprises up 0.12% and small and medium - sized farmers down 0.14% [22]. - Considering the breeding profit loss, the number of culled sows may increase [22].