瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 生猪市场周报 生猪弱势调整，关注节前资金表现 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 本周期货震荡收跌 联系电话：059586778969 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周生猪价格震荡收跌，主力合约2605合约周度下跌0.21% u 行情展望：规模养殖场降重出栏增量，中小散户出栏积极亦较高，节前供应压力仍有，不过价格连续 下跌后刺激部分企业的惜售挺价情绪，出栏节奏可能小有波动。结合能繁母猪及新生仔猪数据分析， 近两个月出栏相对充足。需求端，下周节前备货收尾，叠加春节后需求预期减弱，对价格支撑减弱。 资金方面，注意下周春节前资金变化风险。总体来说，供需博弈局面延续，考虑到节后供需格局转松 预期，生猪盘面或弱势调整运行，不过也要关注节前资金变化风险。 「 期货市场情况」 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 u 本周生猪价格震荡收跌，主力合约2605合约周度下跌0.21%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent regulatory support for financial leasing companies to use modern agricultural facilities and livestock as eligible leasing assets is accelerating the exploration of innovative financing models in the agricultural sector [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Leasing Developments - Recently, China’s financial leasing companies, such as China Communications Financial Leasing Co. and China Railway Construction Financial Leasing Co., have initiated leasing businesses involving biological assets like sows and cows to support rural economic development [1][2]. - A notable project by China Communications Financial Leasing involved financing 12,591 sows with a net leasing value of 35.92 million yuan, aimed at enhancing asset liquidity and providing new management strategies for enterprises [2]. Group 2: Policy Support - The issuance of the "Notice on Promoting Agricultural Facilities and Livestock Collateral Financing" by the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies has clarified that biological assets can be used as eligible leasing items, facilitating compliance for financial leasing companies [3][5]. - Prior to this, there were already attempts by financing leasing companies to engage in similar businesses, such as Beijing Agricultural Investment Leasing Co. financing 200,000 yuan for sows in August 2025 [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The inherent characteristics of biological assets, such as life, liquidity, and value volatility, have raised concerns about their effectiveness as leasing items, leading to industry debates [4]. - To address these challenges, financial leasing companies are focusing on developing insurance mechanisms for biological assets, including dynamic valuation models and risk management strategies to mitigate unexpected asset mortality [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs rebounded, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.78% weekly [6][9] - In mid - January, the supply pressure is average, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end. The peak of curing and enema activities has passed, but there is still some demand. The pre - Spring Festival stocking is about to start, so the overall decline in demand is limited, and there may be a small peak later. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm affects the price. Currently, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, suppressing the price, but market sentiment is okay, and with the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price runs steadily, supporting the near - month futures price to fluctuate slightly stronger [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs rebounded, and the main contract 2603 rose 1.78% weekly [6][9] - **Market Outlook**: In mid - January, the supply pressure is average. The peak of curing and enema activities has passed, but there's still some demand. The pre - Spring Festival stocking is about to start. The overall decline in demand is limited, and there may be a small peak later. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm affects the price. Currently, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, suppressing the price, but market sentiment is okay, and with the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price runs steadily, supporting the near - month futures price to fluctuate slightly stronger [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: Futures rebounded this week, and the main contract 2603 rose 1.78% weekly [7][9] - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 16, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures decreased by 12 hands compared to last week, reaching 51,537 hands. The number of live pig futures warehouse receipts was 815, a decrease of 103 compared to the previous week [11][15] - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 175, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 780 [20] Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig January contract was 1,100 yuan/ton, and that of the March contract was 1,220 yuan/ton [25] - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: This week, the national average price of live pigs was 12.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.31 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 25.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.66 yuan/kg from last week [30] - **Pork and Sows Prices**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the week of January 8, the national average pork price was 23 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [37] - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of January 7, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.51, an increase of 0.11 from the previous week, but still below 6:1 [42] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons, a decrease of 1.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.18% month - on - month and 0.47% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.19% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year [47] - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it was 1.5558 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17% [51] - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: According to Mysteel data, in December, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 11.7829 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.68% and a year - on - year increase of 6.64%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it was 0.548 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.39% and a year - on - year increase of 13.67%. This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.5 kg, an increase of 0.18 kg from last week [55] Industry - wide - **Breeding Profits**: As of January 16, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 50.66 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 7.39 yuan/head, an increase of 18.93 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.08 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.21 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 0.29 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/head [58] - **Pork Imports**: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [65] - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of January 16, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of January 15, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.64 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [69] - **Feed**: As of January 15, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,204.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.57 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,363.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.96 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of January 16, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 906.44, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. In December 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.39% month - on - month and increased by 69.09% year - on - year [74][77][83] - **CPI**: As of December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [88] Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the third week of 2026, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 35.91%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.14 percentage points, with the operating rate fluctuating between 35.33 - 36.10%. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.61%, an increase of 0.07% from last week; the frozen product storage rate was 17.48%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week [91] - **Demand**: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 24.04%. In November 2025, the national catering income was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [96] Live Pig Stocks - The document shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not provide specific analysis [100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs has slightly recovered but the pressure is average, and the demand is in the peak season but has declined from the high level. The supply - demand relationship shows a weak balance, and the fundamentals have not changed much. Therefore, the live pig price will mainly fluctuate [6] Summary by Directory 1. 周度要点小结 - The live pig price fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract 2603 falling 0.21% weekly [6][10] - According to Mysteel data, the sample enterprises' slaughter plan in January decreased month - on - month. The slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms has recovered compared with that after the Spring Festival, but the overall slaughter volume is average. After the New Year's Day, the demand for cured meat decreased, and the terminal consumption tolerance was limited after the price increase. The slaughter enterprises'开工 rate dropped from the high level [6] 2. 期现市场 Futures Market - The futures fluctuated this week, and the main contract 2603 fell 0.21% weekly [8][10] - As of January 9, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 51,549 lots, a decrease of 49 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 918, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous week [16] - The price difference between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 445, and the price difference between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,125 [20] Spot Market - The basis of the live pig January contract this week was 950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the March contract was 1,130 yuan/ton [25] - The national average live pig market price this week was 12.45 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 24.48 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.76 yuan/kg from last week [35] - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the week of December 31, the national pork market price was 22.80 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.32 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [39] - As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.40, an increase of 0.16 from the previous week [44] 3. 产业情况 Upstream - In October 2025, the official inventory of reproductive sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons (1.12%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased 0.18% month - on - month and 0.47% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased 1.19% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year [49] - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms decreased 0.23% month - on - month and increased 4.72% year - on - year, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased 0.09% month - on - month and increased 8.17% year - on - year [53] - According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms increased 3.68% month - on - month and 6.64% year - on - year, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased 6.39% month - on - month and 13.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.03 kg from last week [58] Industry - As of January 9, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 2.31 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 40.03 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was 11.54 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 23.05 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.29 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - crossbred chicken breeding profit was 0.25 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 yuan/head [63] - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12%. In November, the pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [68] - As of the week of January 9, the price of白条 chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of January 8, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [72] - As of January 9, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,248.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 79.03 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.22 yuan/ton from the previous week [77] - As of January 9, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live pig feed cost index was 906.26, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, the same as last week [80] - As of November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. In November, the sales of piglet feed increased 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85] - As of December 2025, China's CPI increased 0.8% year - on - year [89] Downstream - In the second week of 2026, the slaughter enterprises'开工 rate was 36.63%, a decrease of 3.71 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.68 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh sales rate was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.59% from last week, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.62%, a decrease of 0.29% from last week [92] - As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 24.04%. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97] Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of live pigs is tightening, which supports the price to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the supportive effects of secondary fattening and demand are weakening, and the risk of price decline is increasing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Performance**: The live pig price rose and then adjusted. The main contract 2603 increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: At the beginning of the month, there may be supply reduction operations, and the supply of fat pigs is tight, reducing short - term supply pressure. However, the entry of secondary fattening is becoming more cautious. The current demand is in the peak season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ends, the demand drops from the small peak, and the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, so the increase in slaughter volume is limited [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures decreased by 119 hands to 51,598 hands, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 1,013, an increase of 150 from the previous week [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 370, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,010 [22]. - **Spot Market** - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 12.28 yuan/kg, up 0.65 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.72 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: In the week of December 25, the national pork market price was 22.48 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.46 yuan/kg, remaining flat from the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of December 24, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.24, up 0.01 from the previous week [44]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from last week [58]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits**: As of December 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 162.8 yuan/head, narrowing by 26.7 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, narrowing by 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - **Domestic Import** - **Pork Imports**: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the total pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [68]. - **Substitutes** - **Prices**: As of the week of December 26, the price of white - striped chickens remained flat at 14.1 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of December 25, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg from last week [73]. - **Feed** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of December 31, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,172.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.94 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of December 31, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 892.17, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, remaining flat from last week [81]. - **Feed Output**: In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. The sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - **CPI**: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. - **Downstream** - **Slaughter and Cold Storage**: In the 52nd week, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the cold - storage capacity utilization rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a 24.04% increase compared with the previous period. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs has increased as large - scale farms have normal slaughter volumes, heavy pigs from the previous period are actively sold, and some regions affected by diseases are also selling standard pigs. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausage have increased, leading to a rise in terminal consumption, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate has continuously rebounded. Overall, the situation of both supply and demand increasing continues, and the live pig price is mainly in a volatile market. The near - month basis has returned, and the main contract price on the futures market is relatively weak [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price fluctuated, rising first and then falling, and the main contract 2603 closed flat for the week [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply increased due to normal slaughter by large - scale farms, active sales of heavy pigs, and disease - affected sales of standard pigs. Demand increased as curing and sausage - making activities drove up terminal consumption and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate rebounded. The price will mainly show a volatile trend [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fluctuated, rising first and then falling, and the main contract 2603 closed flat for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the net short position of the top 20 holders increased by 3748 lots to 46394 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 823, an increase of 300 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 was - 600, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 was - 1335 [21]. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the January contract was 650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the March contract was 475 yuan/ton this week [26]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs was 11.60 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.38 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [36]. - **Prices of Pork and Sows**: On December 11, the national average price of pork was 22.59 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.46 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of December 10, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.18, down 0.03 from the previous week [44]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In November, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 0.65% month - on - month and increased by 5.59% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 2.03% month - on - month and increased by 29.75% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.67 kg, down 0.03 kg from the previous week [58]. Industry as a Whole - **Breeding Profits**: As of December 19, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 189.5 yuan/head, a reduction of 51.19 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.88 yuan/head, a reduction of 32.46 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.36 yuan/head, the same as the previous week, and the 817 hybrid broiler breeding profit was 0.4 yuan/head, an increase of 0.42 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, with an average monthly import of 83,600 tons. In November, the import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [64][68]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of December 19, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of the week of December 18, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, a reduction of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [71]. - **Feed Situation**: As of December 19, the spot price of soybean meal was 3137.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2348.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.04 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the DCE pig feed cost index was 880.96, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons, and the sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [76][79][83]. - **CPI**: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [87]. Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 51st week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 39.87%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from the previous week and 2.08 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.86%, an increase of 0.79% from the previous week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 18.19%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week [90]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million, an increase of 6.98% from the previous month and 33.31% from the same period last year. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [95]. 4. Live Pig - Related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [96][99]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods, reported that as of the end of September 2025, its breeding sow inventory is expected to reach 3.305 million heads [1] Group 1 - The company will disclose the number of breeding sows in its sales brief at the end of each quarter [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hog price fluctuated, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly. The supply is at a relatively high level due to the higher-than-normal inventory of breeding sows in the corresponding cycle and the normal slaughter of large-scale farms. The second-round fattening is cautious, and smallholders are reluctant to sell due to price drops. The demand has improved but with limited growth as it's not yet the peak season for curing bacon. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward under the supply-demand game [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - The hog price fluctuated, and the main contract 2601 dropped 0.76% weekly. The supply is relatively high, the second-round fattening is cautious, smallholders are reluctant to sell, the demand has improved but with limited growth, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly [11]. - The net short position in futures increased, and there were 90 futures warrants [13][15]. - The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 210, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was -420 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The basis of the hog 1-month contract was 125 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 3-month contract was 335 yuan/ton this week [25]. - The national average hog price was 11.94 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, and the average price of 15 kg weaned piglets was 23.69 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg [34]. - The national pork market price was 23.17 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - The pig-grain ratio was 5.60 as of November 5, up 0.06 from the previous week, but still below 6:1 [43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - In Q3 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, down 30,000 heads (0.2%) month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal inventory. In October, the inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms increased 0.12% month-on-month and 0.83% year-on-year, while that in small and medium-sized farms decreased 0.14% month-on-month and increased 0.89% year-on-year [48]. - In Q3 2025, the hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, up 2.9% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year. In October, the inventory of commercial hogs in large-scale farms increased 0.10% month-on-month and 5.16% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms increased 1.84% month-on-month and 6.45% year-on-year [52]. - In October, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in large-scale farms was 11.4395 million heads, up 11.96% month-on-month and 17.56% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms was 0.5258 million heads, up 9.48% month-on-month and 27.06% year-on-year. The average slaughter weight of domestic ternary hogs this week was 123.52 kg, up 0.27 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - As of November 14, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 205.64 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 30.1 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of self-reproduced and self-raised hogs was a loss of 114.81 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 25.6 yuan/head [62]. - From January to September 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 87,800 tons. In September, the pork import volume was 80,000 tons, down 20% year-on-year [63][67]. - As of the week of November 14, the price of white-striped chickens was 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of November 13, the average price difference between standard and fattened hogs was -0.7 yuan/kg, widening by 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - As of November 14, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,124 yuan/ton, up 26.29 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,270.98 yuan/ton, up 32.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [77]. - As of November 14, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 909.77, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [80]. - As of September 2025, the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, up 2.015 million tons month-on-month. In October 2025, the sales of piglet feed increased 0.42% month-on-month and 0.56% year-on-year [84]. - As of October 2025, China's CPI increased 0.2% year-on-year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - In the 46th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 33.90%, up 0.43 percentage points from last week and 4.64 percentage points year-on-year. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 85.51%, down 0.76% from last week, and the frozen product storage rate was 18.32%, up 0.08% from last week [92]. - As of September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million heads, up 6.99% from the previous month. In October 2025, the national catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan, up 3.76% year-on-year [97]. 3.7 Hog Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [101]

Core Viewpoint - The inventory of breeding sows and pigs increased slightly in October, but is expected to decrease marginally in November due to losses in farming, lack of confidence in future markets, and policy guidance [1][3][4] Group 1: Breeding Sows Inventory - In October, the inventory of breeding sows showed a slight month-on-month increase and a year-on-year growth, driven by multiple factors including the response of farming groups to national capacity regulation policies and a halt in the decline of piglet prices [1][4] - The forecast for November indicates a likely slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory, as farmers may accelerate the culling of low-yield and older sows to mitigate losses and optimize herd structure [3][6] Group 2: Pig Inventory - The pig inventory also saw a slight increase at the end of October, attributed to the breeding cycle logic where the increase in breeding sows from 4-5 months prior should theoretically lead to a significant rise in pig inventory [4][6] - Despite a slight increase in pig inventory, the overall market conditions suggest limited upward movement in pig prices, which may restrict significant growth in inventory levels [3][6]

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on the Pig Market [2] - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The pig price opened significantly lower and declined after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 falling 8.38% weekly. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of pigs remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading on the 2601 contract or perform reverse arbitrage operations on pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The pig price opened low and dropped after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 down 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure persists in the near - term due to the inventory cycle of piglets and breeding sows and postponed slaughter plans. Retail farmers are actively selling due to losses and pessimism. Post - holiday demand declines, and slaughterhouse operations decrease. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. Suggest short - side trading on the 2601 contract or reverse arbitrage on pig futures [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fell, and the main contract 2511 dropped 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 10, the net short position of the top 20 holders increased by 5388 lots to 33089 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts remained at 0, unchanged from before the holiday [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 180, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 385 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: The basis of the November contract was - 320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract was - 1140 yuan/ton [27]. - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price was 12.5 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and 5.94% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 24.86 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week and 11.21% from last month [34]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: The national average pork price on September 25 was 24.29 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [38]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of September 24, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.68, down 0.13 from the previous week and below 6:1 [42]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In August 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 40380000 heads, down 40000 heads month - on - month, up 0.05% year - on - year, and 103.5% of the normal level. Among the 208 sample enterprises, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5056500 heads, down 0.83% month - on - month and up 1.86% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 173900 heads, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 5.92% year - on - year [47]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424470000 heads, up 7160000 heads from the previous quarter and 9140000 heads year - on - year. In August, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 3614500000 heads, up 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 148820000 heads, up 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [52]. - **Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 1070350000 heads, up 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 47370000 heads, down 1.44% month - on - month and up 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs was 123.48 kg, up 0.01 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/head, down 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/head [62]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710000 tons, with a monthly average of 88750 tons. In August, the imports were 80000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [63][67]. - **Substitute Products**: As of September 26, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of October 9, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.59 yuan/kg, with the price difference of fat pigs expanding by 0.2 yuan/kg [70]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 3013.71 yuan/ton, down 4.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2311.57 yuan/ton, down 57.06 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 877.43, down 0.99% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 2927200 tons, up 99900 tons month - on - month; the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [76][82][85]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operations**: In the 41st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 34.53%, down 1.24 percentage points from last week but higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen - product storage rate was 17.75%, up 0.1 percentage points from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 33500000 heads, up 5.81% month - on - month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44957000000 yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [97]. 3.7 Pig Stocks - The report presents the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98][101]