牧原股份（002714.SZ）11月25日在投资者互动平台表示，截至2025年9月末，公司能繁母猪存栏为 330.5万头。公司会在每季度末的销售简报中披露当期能繁母猪数量，请关注后续相关公告。 （记者 胡玲） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：能否说下现在牧原能繁母猪的情况？ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hog price fluctuated, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly. The supply is at a relatively high level due to the higher-than-normal inventory of breeding sows in the corresponding cycle and the normal slaughter of large-scale farms. The second-round fattening is cautious, and smallholders are reluctant to sell due to price drops. The demand has improved but with limited growth as it's not yet the peak season for curing bacon. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward under the supply-demand game [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - The hog price fluctuated, and the main contract 2601 dropped 0.76% weekly. The supply is relatively high, the second-round fattening is cautious, smallholders are reluctant to sell, the demand has improved but with limited growth, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly [11]. - The net short position in futures increased, and there were 90 futures warrants [13][15]. - The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 210, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was -420 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The basis of the hog 1-month contract was 125 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 3-month contract was 335 yuan/ton this week [25]. - The national average hog price was 11.94 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, and the average price of 15 kg weaned piglets was 23.69 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg [34]. - The national pork market price was 23.17 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - The pig-grain ratio was 5.60 as of November 5, up 0.06 from the previous week, but still below 6:1 [43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - In Q3 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, down 30,000 heads (0.2%) month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal inventory. In October, the inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms increased 0.12% month-on-month and 0.83% year-on-year, while that in small and medium-sized farms decreased 0.14% month-on-month and increased 0.89% year-on-year [48]. - In Q3 2025, the hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, up 2.9% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year. In October, the inventory of commercial hogs in large-scale farms increased 0.10% month-on-month and 5.16% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms increased 1.84% month-on-month and 6.45% year-on-year [52]. - In October, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in large-scale farms was 11.4395 million heads, up 11.96% month-on-month and 17.56% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms was 0.5258 million heads, up 9.48% month-on-month and 27.06% year-on-year. The average slaughter weight of domestic ternary hogs this week was 123.52 kg, up 0.27 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - As of November 14, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 205.64 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 30.1 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of self-reproduced and self-raised hogs was a loss of 114.81 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 25.6 yuan/head [62]. - From January to September 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 87,800 tons. In September, the pork import volume was 80,000 tons, down 20% year-on-year [63][67]. - As of the week of November 14, the price of white-striped chickens was 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of November 13, the average price difference between standard and fattened hogs was -0.7 yuan/kg, widening by 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - As of November 14, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,124 yuan/ton, up 26.29 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,270.98 yuan/ton, up 32.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [77]. - As of November 14, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 909.77, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [80]. - As of September 2025, the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, up 2.015 million tons month-on-month. In October 2025, the sales of piglet feed increased 0.42% month-on-month and 0.56% year-on-year [84]. - As of October 2025, China's CPI increased 0.2% year-on-year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - In the 46th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 33.90%, up 0.43 percentage points from last week and 4.64 percentage points year-on-year. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 85.51%, down 0.76% from last week, and the frozen product storage rate was 18.32%, up 0.08% from last week [92]. - As of September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million heads, up 6.99% from the previous month. In October 2025, the national catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan, up 3.76% year-on-year [97]. 3.7 Hog Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [101]

Core Viewpoint - The inventory of breeding sows and pigs increased slightly in October, but is expected to decrease marginally in November due to losses in farming, lack of confidence in future markets, and policy guidance [1][3][4] Group 1: Breeding Sows Inventory - In October, the inventory of breeding sows showed a slight month-on-month increase and a year-on-year growth, driven by multiple factors including the response of farming groups to national capacity regulation policies and a halt in the decline of piglet prices [1][4] - The forecast for November indicates a likely slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory, as farmers may accelerate the culling of low-yield and older sows to mitigate losses and optimize herd structure [3][6] Group 2: Pig Inventory - The pig inventory also saw a slight increase at the end of October, attributed to the breeding cycle logic where the increase in breeding sows from 4-5 months prior should theoretically lead to a significant rise in pig inventory [4][6] - Despite a slight increase in pig inventory, the overall market conditions suggest limited upward movement in pig prices, which may restrict significant growth in inventory levels [3][6]

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on the Pig Market [2] - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The pig price opened significantly lower and declined after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 falling 8.38% weekly. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of pigs remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading on the 2601 contract or perform reverse arbitrage operations on pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The pig price opened low and dropped after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 down 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure persists in the near - term due to the inventory cycle of piglets and breeding sows and postponed slaughter plans. Retail farmers are actively selling due to losses and pessimism. Post - holiday demand declines, and slaughterhouse operations decrease. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. Suggest short - side trading on the 2601 contract or reverse arbitrage on pig futures [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fell, and the main contract 2511 dropped 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 10, the net short position of the top 20 holders increased by 5388 lots to 33089 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts remained at 0, unchanged from before the holiday [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 180, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 385 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: The basis of the November contract was - 320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract was - 1140 yuan/ton [27]. - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price was 12.5 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and 5.94% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 24.86 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week and 11.21% from last month [34]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: The national average pork price on September 25 was 24.29 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [38]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of September 24, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.68, down 0.13 from the previous week and below 6:1 [42]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In August 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 40380000 heads, down 40000 heads month - on - month, up 0.05% year - on - year, and 103.5% of the normal level. Among the 208 sample enterprises, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5056500 heads, down 0.83% month - on - month and up 1.86% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 173900 heads, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 5.92% year - on - year [47]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424470000 heads, up 7160000 heads from the previous quarter and 9140000 heads year - on - year. In August, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 3614500000 heads, up 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 148820000 heads, up 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [52]. - **Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 1070350000 heads, up 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 47370000 heads, down 1.44% month - on - month and up 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs was 123.48 kg, up 0.01 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/head, down 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/head [62]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710000 tons, with a monthly average of 88750 tons. In August, the imports were 80000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [63][67]. - **Substitute Products**: As of September 26, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of October 9, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.59 yuan/kg, with the price difference of fat pigs expanding by 0.2 yuan/kg [70]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 3013.71 yuan/ton, down 4.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2311.57 yuan/ton, down 57.06 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 877.43, down 0.99% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 2927200 tons, up 99900 tons month - on - month; the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [76][82][85]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operations**: In the 41st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 34.53%, down 1.24 percentage points from last week but higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen - product storage rate was 17.75%, up 0.1 percentage points from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 33500000 heads, up 5.81% month - on - month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44957000000 yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [97]. 3.7 Pig Stocks - The report presents the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98][101]

Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. Considering the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may still have a slight increase by December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. It is recommended to consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. Summary by Directory Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices adjusted weakly and fluctuated. On September 26, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted weakly and fluctuated [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: The inter - monthly spreads adjusted fluctuately, and the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend due to the weak spot market [8][11]. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price adjusted weakly and fluctuated [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The pig price in Sichuan was relatively weak [16]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference adjusted fluctuately. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may increase the weight - gain willingness of scattered farmers [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight increased this week [26]. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million heads. Different data sources showed different trends in August, with some showing a slight increase and some a decrease [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows ran weakly. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the enthusiasm for capacity reduction [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In August, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in February next year [32]. - **Enthusiasm for Sow and Piglet Replenishment**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets ran weakly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million heads. The market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs remains under pressure as large - scale farms continue to sell and smallholders are also actively selling large pigs. Although demand has improved marginally due to cooler temperatures, price drops, and approaching holidays, the increase in demand is less than that in supply. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, which constrains prices. However, with the current price at a relatively low level and high positions held, there is a risk of price fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position changes. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The price of live pigs continued to decline, with the main contract 2511 falling 1.95% weekly [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is sufficient while demand growth is limited, keeping the supply - demand pattern loose. Pre - holiday position changes may cause price fluctuations. Reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures are recommended [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fell, with the main contract 2511 down 1.95% for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position increased, and there were 298 futures warehouse receipts, 130 less than last week. As of September 26, the net short position of the top 20 holders was 28,375 lots, up 2,571 lots from last week [13][17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 445, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was 50 [21]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live pigs was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from last week and 8.33% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 25.38 yuan/kg, down 2.62 yuan/kg from last week and 10.57% from last month [35]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.51 yuan/kg in the week of September 18, down 0.19 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [39]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of September 17, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.81, down 0.09 from the previous week [43]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, down 10,000 from the previous month and 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month [48]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the live pig inventory in large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased by 2.56% month - on - month, and that of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.44% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight was 123.47 kg, down 0.04 kg from last week [59]. 3.3.2. Industry Profitability - **Live Pig Farming**: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head. The loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head [64]. - **Poultry Farming**: As of September 26, the profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/bird, down 0.06 yuan/bird week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/bird [64]. 3.3.3. Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, with a monthly average of 88,750 tons. In August, the import volume was 80,000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [65][69]. 3.3.4. Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken Price**: As of the week of September 26, the price of white - striped chicken was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - **Standard - Fat Price Difference**: As of the week of September 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.39 yuan/kg, 0.39 yuan/kg less than last week [72]. 3.3.5. Feed Market - **Feed Prices**: As of September 26, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,019.71 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, up 4.9 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of September 26, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 894.31, down 0.56% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [83]. - **Feed Output**: In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons month - on - month. The sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [87]. 3.3.6. CPI - As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [91]. 3.3.7. Downstream Market - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 39th week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 32.82%, up 1.05 percentage points from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.65%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, up 5.32% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44.957 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [99]. 3.4. Live Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [100][103].

Core Viewpoint - The recent pig production capacity regulation meeting held on September 16 emphasizes the control of breeding sow capacity, aiming to stabilize the supply of pigs for the upcoming year [1][2][3] Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting included major pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Group, indicating the importance of the discussion [2] - Participants were prohibited from bringing communication devices and were instructed not to disclose meeting content, highlighting the sensitivity of the topics discussed [2] - Key topics included controlling breeding sow capacity, limiting "secondary fattening," and ensuring reduced weight at pig slaughter [2][3] Group 2: Breeding Sow Capacity Targets - The target for breeding sow inventory is to reduce it by approximately 1 million heads to 39.5 million, based on the "Implementation Plan for Pig Production Capacity Regulation (2024 Revision)" [3] - The normal breeding sow inventory is expected to stabilize around 39 million heads, with projections indicating a peak of 40.8 million heads in November 2024 [3] Group 3: Company Responses - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope have committed to not increasing breeding sow capacity and are actively managing their inventory in response to national policies [4][5] - Muyuan Foods plans to reduce its breeding sow inventory to 3.3 million heads by the end of the year and is focused on lowering the average weight of pigs for slaughter [4] - New Hope has maintained stable breeding sow inventory levels throughout 2023 and aims to enhance efficiency and compliance to stabilize the market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of the pig market remains loose, and pig prices are still under pressure. However, a meeting in mid - September will affect market sentiment and cause price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices fluctuated downward, with the main contract 2511 down 0.53% for the week [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers have a sentiment of holding up prices, and spot prices are stable with fluctuations. But the inventory of breeding sows in September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle, and the number of newborn piglets six months ago increased, so there is supply pressure. According to Mysteel data, the planned slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month. The meeting on September 16 will affect market sentiment. On the demand side, the demand in the north has slightly recovered due to the temperature drop, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has continued to rise, but the growth rate has declined in the latest week [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: Pig futures prices declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.53% for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures increased by 891 lots to 15,745 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 428, a decrease of 2 lots from last week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 195 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national pig market price this week was 13.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.38 yuan/kg from last week and a 2.1% decrease from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and a 2.51% decrease from the same period last month [34]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of August 28, the national pork market price was 24.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads month - on - month and a 0.025% decrease year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [49]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [55]. - **Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million heads, an increase of 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it was 0.4737 million heads, a decrease of 1.44% month - on - month and an increase of 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.47 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg from last week [60]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of September 12, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets reported a loss of 161.93 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 13.53 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.21 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.12 yuan/head [65]. - **Pork Imports**: In July 2025, China's pork imports were 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imports were 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [70]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of September 12, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 11, the average national price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 12, the spot price of soybean meal was 3079.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; as of September 11, the corn price was 2365.49 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 912.18, a decrease of 0.66% from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons month - on - month. According to Mysteel data, in July 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and increased by 9.15% year - on - year [80][85][89]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [93]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Demand**: The operating rate of slaughter enterprises increased, and the frozen - product storage capacity remained stable. As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, an increase of 5.32% from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [94][100]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report provides trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content [101][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply rhythm is expected to gradually recover, and there is pressure on supply due to the peak of the previous increase cycle in the inventory of breeding sows in September and the increase in the number of newborn piglets in the past six months. The planned monthly slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery in demand due to centralized procurement by schools at the beginning of the semester, procurement for the Ghost Festival, and the decrease in temperature in the north, leading to a continuous increase in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. - At the beginning of the month, the slowdown in slaughter and the slight recovery in demand led to an increase in spot prices. However, due to market expectations of supply in September, futures prices were weak, and the basis strengthened. - As the slaughter rhythm recovers and supply increases, and after the centralized procurement by schools before the Ghost Festival and at the beginning of the semester ends, demand growth is limited. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, pig prices may face pressure and mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct short - term bearish trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2511 dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure exists as the slaughter rhythm will recover and the supply of breeding sows and newborn piglets suggests an increase. Demand has a slight recovery but is limited after the special procurement periods end. Pig prices may be under pressure and operate in a weak and volatile manner. Short - term bearish trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract 2511 of pig futures dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 5th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1222 lots to 14,854 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [12][16]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 255 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September contract was 820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 575 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Price**: The average national pig market price was 13.90 yuan/kg this week, up 0.16 yuan/kg from last week and 0.72% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, down 0.55 yuan/kg from last week and 9.88% from the same period last month [34]. - **Other Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.81 yuan/kg in the week of August 28th, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The pig - grain ratio was 5.89 as of August 20th, down 0.05 from the previous week [38][43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.025%, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [48]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, an increase of 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. In July, the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 473,700, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 54.30%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs this week was 123.41 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [59]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 5th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 126.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 52.65 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 22.17 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20.42 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.23 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 0.02 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - crossbred chickens was 1.00 yuan/head [64]. - **Import Situation**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [65][69]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of September 5th, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 4th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3073.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2362.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 29th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 919.08, an increase of 1.24% from last week. This week, the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [75][83][87]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, the year - on - year increase in China's CPI was 0.0% [91]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 36th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [99]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data or analysis is provided [100].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of live pigs has declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 2.06% this week. In the near term, supply pressure remains, suppressing pig prices. However, the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, the slaughterhouse's operating rate is rising, and the state's purchasing and storage measures boost market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term decline space is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs decreased, and the main contract 2511 dropped 2.06% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, due to the implementation of transportation policies on September 1 and possible supply reduction at the beginning of the month, the supply pressure is expected to ease briefly next week. But the supply pressure in the near - term remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of sow inventory. The widening price difference between fat and standard pigs provides conditions for late - stage pig holding and secondary fattening. On the demand side, the pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchasing and storage" and "rotational purchasing and storage" to stabilize the market. With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous rise in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. Overall, the near - term supply pressure persists, but short - term price decline is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, and the net short position of the top 20 futures decreased. As of August 29, the net short position of the top 20 was 16,076 lots, a decrease of 853 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [10][12][16]. - **Spot Market** - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 13.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week and 3.84% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan from last week and 12.74% from the same period last month [27]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price in the week of August 21 was 24.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [37]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September live pig contract was 685 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 145 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream Supply** - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5.0986 million heads, a slight increase of 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; the sow inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 174,000 heads, a slight decrease of 0.17% month - on - month and an increase of 6.67% year - on - year [42]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the second quarter, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year, and according to Mysteel data, it increased month - on - month in July. In July, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.145 million heads, an increase of 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4882 million heads, an increase of 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [45]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: According to Mysteel data, in July, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.4362 million heads, a decrease of 3.08% month - on - month and an increase of 18.60% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480,600 heads, a decrease of 1.46% month - on - month and an increase of 57.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.38 kg, unchanged from last week [50]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 3.4 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 32.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.71 yuan/head from the previous month [56]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was a loss of 0.21 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.55 yuan/head [56]. - **Domestic Import**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imported pork was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [57][61]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 29, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [65]. - **Feed Situation** - **Feed Price**: As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,071.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,364.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 908.34, a 0.58% increase from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [70][74]. - **Feed Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly feed output was 2,827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons from the previous month [79]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 35th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 29.27%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from last week. In the 34th week, the domestic cold storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [86]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a 1.1% year - on - year increase [91]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [92].