Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable production operations and effective cost control for pork and chicken in August [2]. Cost Summary - The comprehensive cost of raising meat pigs in July was approximately 6.1 yuan per jin [2]. - The total cost for broiler chicken was around 5.7 yuan per jin [2]. - The company encourages investors to monitor related announcements for the latest cost data [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.717 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.49%, and turned a profit with a net profit of 181 million yuan [8] - The company continues to experience a decline in breeding costs while achieving rapid growth in scale, with a pig output of 1.9096 million heads in the first half of 2025, up 74.47% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.3 billion yuan, 7.8 billion yuan, and 8.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 467 million yuan, 986 million yuan, and 1.171 billion yuan [8] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.041 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.8%, and is expected to reach 6.078 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 50.4% [6][9] - The net profit for 2023 is forecasted to be -645 million yuan, turning positive in 2024 with a net profit of 519 million yuan [6][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -1.28 yuan in 2023 to 2.30 yuan by 2027 [6][9] Cost Management - The company maintains industry-leading cost control capabilities, with breeding costs continuing to decline, estimated at approximately 13.4 yuan/kg and 13.2 yuan/kg for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 respectively [8] - The company has successfully integrated quality production capacity resources and improved capacity utilization, leading to significant growth in pig production [8] Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of the first half of 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 602 million yuan, indicating a strong cash position [8] - The company's monetary funds increased by 16.15% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching 670 million yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, driven by growth in pig and chicken sales, despite challenges in the chicken market [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of the year reached 49.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.92% - Net profit was 3.531 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 143.71% [1][2]. Business Segments - **Pig Farming**: - Sales of live pigs reached 16.6166 million heads, up 15.6% year-on-year - Revenue from pig sales was 32.735 billion yuan, an increase of 16.26% year-on-year - The average selling price of live pigs was 14.93 yuan/kg, down 2.56% year-on-year, but lower costs led to increased profitability [2][3]. - **Chicken Farming**: - Sales of meat chickens totaled 598 million heads, a 9.16% increase year-on-year - However, the average selling price dropped by 18.43% to 10.84 yuan/kg, resulting in a revenue decline of 9.29% to 15.127 billion yuan - The chicken segment faced losses due to prices falling below production costs [4][5]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced pig farming costs, with average costs reported between 12 yuan/kg and 13 yuan/kg, down from 12.8 yuan/kg earlier in the year [2][3]. - Chicken farming costs were reported at around 11 yuan/kg, indicating competitive positioning within the industry [5][6]. Debt Management - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 50.57% as of June 30, down from nearly 59% a year earlier - The company aims to reduce this ratio to approximately 45% by the end of 2025 to enhance financial stability [1][7].

证券研究报告：农林牧渔 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 公司基本情况 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 牧原股份(002714) 养殖成本优势突出，高分红积极回报股东 事件： 公司发布 25 年中报，实现营收 764.63 亿元，同比增 34.46%；归 母净利 105.30 亿元，同比增 1169.77%，处于业绩预告中上区间。成 本快速下行，推动公司业绩大增。同时公司财务状况良好，上半年经 营活动产生的净现金流为 173.51 亿元，同比增 12.13%；截至二季度 末，公司资产负债率为 56.06%，相比一季度末下降 3.14 个百分点。 点评：养殖成本优势突出，屠宰业务大幅减亏 养殖：出栏稳增，成本优势铸造最强护城河。2025 年上半年， 公司共销售生猪 4691 万头(YOY+44.84%)，其中商品猪 3839.4 万头 (YOY+32.48%)，仔猪 829.1 万头(YOY+168.06%)。公司生产成绩持续 改善，养殖成本从 1 月的 13.1 元/公斤逐月降至 7 月的 11.8 元/公 斤，稳居行业第一梯 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Hope has returned to profitability in the first half of 2025 after four years of losses, with projected net profits between 680 million and 780 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.217 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of approximately 155.85% to 164.07% compared to a loss of 1.217 billion yuan in the previous year [2] - The projected non-recurring net profit is estimated to be between 627 million and 727 million yuan, a significant increase from a loss of 1.316 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a growth of about 147.63% to 155.23% [2] - In the first half of 2025, New Hope sold 8.4493 million pigs, a slight decrease of 239,300 pigs compared to the previous year, generating sales revenue of 12.053 billion yuan, down from 13.048 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Business Operations - The improvement in profitability is attributed to enhanced production management and biosecurity measures in the pig farming sector, leading to reduced costs despite lower pig prices [2][3] - The company has achieved a significant reduction in breeding costs, with the top 25% of farms reducing costs to 13.6 yuan per kilogram in 2024 and aiming for 12.5 yuan per kilogram in the first quarter of 2025 [3] - New Hope's feed business, which has been a core operation for over 40 years, achieved a total sales volume of 25.96 million tons in 2024, accounting for 8.2% of the national total production [4][6] Group 3: International Expansion - New Hope is accelerating its overseas feed business expansion, targeting a sales volume of 6 million tons in 2025, with plans to potentially increase production capacity by 3 to 4 million tons in the next 3 to 5 years [5][6] - The company has established a clear market presence in overseas regions, including Indonesia, Vietnam, and Egypt, and is focusing on expanding its footprint in these markets [6] - New Hope has initiated an employee stock ownership plan aimed at core employees involved in overseas operations, indicating a commitment to international growth [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][40]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index increased by 1.09%, ranking 22nd among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index [5][13]. - The report highlights a slight rebound in the market, particularly in the fruit and vegetable processing and breeding sectors, while the aquaculture sector experienced a decline [5][16]. - The report indicates that pig prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a national average price of 14.52 yuan/kg as of July 13, 2025, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous week [6][19]. - The report anticipates seasonal fluctuations in pig prices, with a potential short-term increase during the peak consumption months of July and August, but significant pressure expected in the fourth quarter due to increased supply [7][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index rose by 1.09%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% and 1.09%, respectively [13]. - The report notes that the market is rebounding, with previously underperforming sectors seeing some recovery [14]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week [6][19]. - The report indicates that self-breeding and self-raising operations are still profitable, with average profits of 134 yuan per head, an increase of 14 yuan from the previous week [20][22]. - The report highlights a cautious approach to increasing production among breeding enterprises due to clear policy guidance [21][22]. Broilers - The price of white feather broiler chicks was 1.40 yuan/chick, a slight rebound of 0.3 yuan/chick from the previous week, with an average loss of 1.2 yuan per chick [32]. - The report notes that the demand for broilers is weak, leading to significant losses in the industry [32]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices decreased slightly, with white sugar priced at 6100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [34]. - The price of corn was 2399 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 3 yuan/ton [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the stock price of Decon Agriculture, which has outperformed the overall industry despite a continuous decline in pig prices and narrowing breeding profits. The key to competition in the pig farming industry is cost reduction, and the industry may remain in a state of micro-profitability [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Decon Agriculture's stock price surged over 260% this year, reaching a high of 96 HKD per share, marking a 269% increase from its low point earlier in the year [2][7]. - As of June 16, the stock closed at 88.4 HKD per share, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 224% [2][5]. - The company has shown a remarkable recovery, with a projected revenue of approximately 22.463 billion RMB for 2024, a 39% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of about 4.102 billion RMB, reversing a loss of 1.775 billion RMB in 2023 [7][8]. Group 2: Industry Context - The pig farming industry is currently facing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices, which fell to around 14 RMB per kilogram [5][13]. - The average price of live pigs and pork has decreased by 18.56% and 9.95% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a challenging market environment [13]. - Despite the overall profitability in pig farming, profits are shrinking, and cost control has become crucial for companies to maintain profitability [17][19]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Decon Agriculture has implemented an innovative "company + sow breeding and fattening farm" model, which enhances asset-light operations and improves disease control, establishing a solid foundation for growth [10]. - The company has a competitive edge with a projected net profit of 350-370 RMB per pig, significantly higher than the industry average of 161 RMB for scattered farming and 302 RMB for large-scale farming [10]. - Analysts expect Decon Agriculture's breeding costs to continue to decline, providing substantial room for valuation recovery [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in the stock price of Dekang Agriculture has brought the pig farming industry back into public focus, with a year-to-date increase of over 260% [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Dekang Agriculture's stock price surged from HKD 26 to a peak of HKD 96, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of 269% from its low [1][3]. - As of June 16, the stock closed at HKD 88.4, reflecting a cumulative increase of 224% for the year [1][2]. - The company reported a projected revenue of approximately RMB 22.463 billion for 2024, a year-on-year growth of 39%, and a net profit of about RMB 4.102 billion, reversing a loss of RMB 1.775 billion in 2023 [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The pig farming industry has maintained profitability for 13 consecutive months, primarily due to a significant reduction in production costs for leading enterprises [2]. - Despite overall profitability, pig prices have been declining this year, leading to shrinking margins for farmers [2][5]. - The industry is characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" dynamic, making cost reduction a key competitive factor [2][8]. Group 3: Competitive Position - Dekang Agriculture has established itself as a leading player in the pig farming sector, ranking first in the compound annual growth rate of large-scale pig farming enterprises in China and sixth in national pig sales [3]. - The company has implemented an innovative "company + sow breeding and fattening farm" model, which enhances asset efficiency and stability in farmer cooperation [4]. - Analysts predict that Dekang Agriculture's net profit per pig will be significantly higher than the industry average, with estimates of RMB 350-370 per pig compared to RMB 161 for scattered farming and RMB 302 for large-scale farming [4]. Group 4: Market Trends - The stock performance of Dekang Agriculture contrasts sharply with other listed pig farming companies, many of which have seen declines in stock prices this year [5]. - The average pig price has been fluctuating around RMB 14 per kilogram, with significant year-on-year declines observed [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a stable development phase for the pig farming industry, with potential for price recovery in the second half of the year if supply capacity is managed effectively [7][8].

Group 1 - Several listed companies in the pig farming industry reported their sales data for May, with New Hope selling 1.3339 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 16.42% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.41%, while Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.1554 million pigs, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.64% and a year-on-year increase of 32.64% [1] - The average selling price of pigs for New Hope was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 0.75% month-on-month and down 5.38% year-on-year, while Wens Foodstuff Group's average price was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 1.61% month-on-month and down 7.26% year-on-year [1] - Despite the decline in sales, the pig farming sector has been profitable for 12 consecutive months, and price fluctuations in the industry are expected to remain moderate, allowing leading companies to maintain profitability [1][2] Group 2 - As temperatures rise, pork consumption is weak, and the growth rate of pigs slows down, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, which keeps pig prices stable [2] - The profit from piglet sales has been substantial in the first five months of the year, and there is a slow reduction in pig farming capacity, with the market still having ample supply [2] - The cost of feed has significantly decreased compared to 2023, contributing to sustained profitability in pig farming since April 2024, although profits have noticeably shrunk since May [2][3] Group 3 - The high inventory of breeding sows continues to lead to an oversupply of pigs, keeping prices low and significantly compressing farmers' profits, making cost control essential for survival and growth [3] - Large farming groups benefit from economies of scale, having stronger bargaining power in feed procurement, while small farmers face disadvantages due to limited scale and resources [3] - Analysts suggest that pig prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly this year, and the industry's profitability will be a key focus, with cost differences being the most effective indicator of companies' profitability [3] Group 4 - New Hope aims to "repair growth" and enhance profitability by focusing on flexible operations, continuous cost reduction, and improving labor efficiency [4] - Wens Foodstuff Group noted a shift in the industry from capital expansion to cost competition, indicating a transition from short-term to long-term competitive strategies [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a slight rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 0.91%, ranking 20th among 31 primary industries [12][13]. - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices. As of June 8, 2025, the average price of pigs was 14.17 CNY/kg, down 0.64% from the previous week [6][16]. - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has decreased, with average profits around 33 CNY per head, while external piglets are facing losses of 121 CNY per head [17][20]. - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable yet slight adjustments in prices, with chick prices at 2.90 CNY per chick and meat chicken prices at 3.60 CNY per jin [30][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.91%, with the pig farming and animal vaccine sectors experiencing significant adjustments [12][13]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The pig price is expected to continue its downward trend due to strong supply and weak demand. The supply of pigs is anticipated to increase in the second half of 2025 [6][19]. - The current breeding stock remains stable, with the number of breeding sows fluctuating between 40 million and 41 million, indicating controlled supply growth [19][20]. - Cost competition is expected to be a key focus in 2025, with recommendations to prioritize companies with cost advantages [20]. White Feather Chicken - The chick price has slightly decreased, and the market is currently stable with sufficient supply across the industry [30][31]. - Concerns regarding imported breeds have eased, presenting opportunities for domestic breeding companies [30]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downwards, while soybean prices have seen a slight increase. Cotton prices have shown minor fluctuations, and corn prices have experienced slight increases [33][36].