1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market this week will continue the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the live inventory is expected to enter the destocking phase. The theoretical supply in March is at a high level both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the consumption is in the seasonal off - season, so the spot price is expected to remain under pressure. The breeding side is in deep loss with tight cash flow, increasing the sales enthusiasm. With the requirement to reduce the sales weight, the live inventory may decline. From the trend of new piglet data, the theoretical slaughter volume in the second quarter will decline to some extent, and factors for the spot price to stabilize and rebound may be accumulating [7]. - In the futures market, one can consider selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts, including selling deep out - of - the - money call options of LH2605 and LH2607 contracts. For the unilateral strategy, short the near - month contracts on rallies; for the inter - month strategy, stay on the sidelines in the short term [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price**: The national average price of standard pigs this week was 9.87 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg, with all regions falling below 10 yuan/kg, and the white strip price also declined. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 280.95 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36.19 yuan/head. The price of sows remained unchanged at 1423.81 yuan/head [4]. - **Capacity**: The official存栏 of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. The存栏 of reproductive sows in the steel - union sample in February was 5.1873 million, a slight month - on - month decline. The number of healthy piglets per litter and the fattening survival rate were stable [4]. - **Supply**: The存栏 of commercial pigs in February was 38.8971 million, a month - on - month increase of 678,100. The theoretical supply pressure in the first quarter continued to increase, suppressing the sharp rebound of spot prices. The theoretical slaughter volume in March was at a high level, and from April, it is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: The daily slaughter volume this week was 132,951, a week - on - week increase of 9.5%. The daily slaughter start - up rate was 32.12%, a week - on - week increase of 9.48%. It is currently in the seasonal off - season of consumption, and the downstream's ability to absorb the large supply is limited. Consumption is expected to recover seasonally after April [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening mode dropped to - 263 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening dropped to - 154 yuan/head. The slaughter profit dropped to - 17.8 yuan/head. Pay attention to the impact of feed cost on breeding cost [5]. - **Substitutes**: The prices of beef, mutton, fish, and chicken fluctuated slightly, and the prices of various substitutes were stable [5]. - **Futures Market**: All contracts of live hog futures fell sharply this week, and there was a significant squeeze on the premium in the futures market [5]. 3.2 Market Price Trends - **Spot Market Prices**: The report shows the historical price trends of national standard pigs, white strips, piglets, and binary sows from 2022 to 2026 [10]. 3.3 Live Hog Market Balance Sheet - Based on piglet data, the supply - demand gap was flat year - on - year from March to May 2025, and widened rapidly from June to December 2025, being higher year - on - year. It is expected that the supply - demand gap will widen in the first and second quarters of 2026, and the center of spot prices is difficult to move up significantly [14][15]. 3.4 Basic Production Capacity Situation - **Reproductive Sow Inventory**: The official存栏 of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The存栏 data of reproductive sows from three - party institutions increased month - on - month in January 2026 [18]. - **Sow Culling Volume**: The sow culling volume decreased month - on - month in January, which may be related to the sharp rise in spot prices in January [20]. - **Farrowing Efficiency**: The PSY of 16 listed pig enterprises has been increasing year by year. With the continued improvement of breed replacement by medium - sized and small - sized breeding enterprises, the PSY data is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [27][28]. 3.5 Market Supply Situation - **Statistics on Slaughter and Inventory**: The report shows the quarterly slaughter and存栏 of live hogs from 2017 to 2025. The新增 piglet data from the steel - union showed a decline in November 2025 and an increase after December [30][33][36]. - **Inventory Structure and Weight**: The存栏 of commercial pigs in the steel - union sample and the proportion of different weight ranges are presented. The average slaughter weight of live hogs continued to increase slightly this week, and the fat - to - standard price difference continued to decline [43][45][59]. - **Monthly Planned Slaughter of Enterprises**: The report shows the monthly planned slaughter volume of 173 large - scale enterprises from 2022 to 2025, as well as the monthly slaughter volume trends of enterprises such as Muyuan, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Wenshi [46][62]. 3.6 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand - **Slaughter Volume and Pork Output**: The report shows the changes in the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughterhouses from 2018 to 2025 and the quarterly pork output of the Ministry of Commerce from 2017 to 2025 [71][73]. - **Slaughter - related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume, daily start - up rate, fresh sales rate, and capacity utilization rate of slaughter enterprises are presented, as well as the trends of wholesale market arrival and wholesale volume [76][82]. - **Competition Product Prices**: The price trends of beef, mutton, white - striped chicken, and crucian carp from 2021 to 2026 are shown [89]. 3.7 Breeding Cost and Industry Profit - **Cost and Profit Trends**: The report shows the profit trends of purchasing piglets for fattening, self - breeding and self - fattening, the price trend of fattening feed, and the pig - to - grain ratio from 2021 to 2026 [96]. - **Expected and Current Breeding Costs**: The expected and current breeding costs of large - scale enterprises in self - breeding and self - fattening mode, as well as the current and expected breeding costs of purchasing piglets for fattening, are presented. The secondary fattening costs of different weight increases are also shown [97][103][104]. 3.8 Futures Market Situation - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: The price trends of various live hog futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 to 2026 are shown [115]. - **Basis and Spread Trends**: The basis trends of various contracts and the spread trends between different contracts are presented [125][135].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply pressure in the live pig market is gradually improving, but overall the market shows an oscillating trend. The spot price of live pigs is on a decline, and the pressure of the subsequent pig slaughter volume is still relatively significant. The futures price shows an oscillating performance, and in the long - term, the supply - side pressure remains the main influencing factor [3][5] - In the short term, the supply and demand of the live pig market are relatively loose. The upside space is limited, mainly affected by the supply - side's impact on price after the decline in inventory. The futures may be relatively strong in the short term, but in the medium and long - term, it is expected to run in an oscillating manner [5] Group 3: Specific Content Summaries Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country are in a downward state. The average price today is 10.04 yuan, a decrease of 0.02 yuan compared to yesterday. Different regions have different price changes, such as a 0.11 - yuan decrease in Henan, a 0.14 - yuan decrease in Shanxi, etc. [3] Futures Price - Futures prices show an oscillating trend. For example, LH01 decreased by 5 to 13785, LH07 increased by 25 to 12310, etc. [3] Sow/Piglet Price - Piglet prices this week are 326, a decrease of 21 compared to last week; sow prices are 1543, a decrease of 6 compared to last week [3] Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising is - 237.98, a decrease of 78.33 compared to yesterday; the profit for purchasing piglets is - 58.89, a decrease of 79.72 compared to yesterday [3] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume today is 140719 heads, an increase of 1044 compared to yesterday [3] Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs is 0.65 today, an increase of 0.04 compared to yesterday; the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs is 0.670909091, a decrease of 0.04 compared to yesterday [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to mainly wait and see - Arbitrage: LH7 - 11 long spread - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pig slaughter volume is increasing, and the spot price is oscillating. The pressure on subsequent pig slaughter volume is still significant, and the short - term pig market still faces certain pressure. The upside space is relatively limited, mainly affected by the supply - side impact on prices after the decline in inventory [3][5]. - The futures price of pigs shows a downward trend, mainly oscillating. The short - term futures near - month contracts are supported, but in the long - term, the supply - side pressure remains the main influencing factor, and the futures are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Today, the pig prices across the country are oscillating. The average spot price is 10.06 yuan, an increase of 0.02 yuan compared with yesterday. The prices in most regions show a downward trend, with the largest decline in Hebei at - 0.17 yuan, and only a few regions such as Hunan, Sichuan, and Guangdong showing an increase [3]. Futures Price - The futures prices of all contracts are showing a downward trend. For example, LH01 dropped by 20, LH03 dropped by 40, and LH11 dropped by 50 [3]. Sow/Piglet Price - The piglet price this week is 347, a decrease of 1 compared with last week; the sow price is 1549, an increase of 2 compared with last week [3]. Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 237.98 yuan, a decrease of 78.33 yuan compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 58.89 yuan, a decrease of 79.72 yuan compared with yesterday [3]. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume today is 136,430 heads, a decrease of 33 heads compared with yesterday [3]. Big and Small Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs remains unchanged at 0.61; the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.02 to 0.15; the price difference between large pigs and medium - large pigs increased by 0.06 to 0.56; the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.04 to 0.71 [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to mainly wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure in the pig market is relatively large, and the pig price continues to decline. Although the secondary fattening provides some support, it is mainly a temporary situation. The demand in the pig market is generally average, with an increase in pig slaughter volume but a limited absolute amount, an increase in frozen product inventory, and a continuous decline in the fresh - sales rate [5]. - In the futures market, although there is discussion about the further reduction of production capacity, due to relatively good breeding profits, the decline in breeding - end production capacity is expected to be limited. The near - month price may rise with the improvement of the spot market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - The pig price showed an obvious downward trend this week. The supply - side pressure in the market is still significant. The large - scale enterprises have a relatively large pressure to sell pigs, and the planned sales volume this month has increased. The ordinary farmers are more resistant to low prices, and the enthusiasm for selling pigs is average. The secondary fattening has increased recently. The pig slaughter weight is still at a relatively high level, and the subsequent supply pressure is still relatively large. The demand in the pig market is generally average, with an increase in pig slaughter volume but a limited absolute amount, an increase in frozen product inventory, and a continuous decline in the fresh - sales rate [5]. - In the futures market, the pig price has shown a downward trend. Although there is discussion about the further reduction of production capacity, due to relatively good breeding profits, the decline in breeding - end production capacity is expected to be limited. The near - month price may rise with the improvement of the spot market [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate mainly. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [7]. 2. Data Charts & Logical Analysis Pig Price - This week, the pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The market sales volume continued to increase, and the overall support was relatively limited, with the decline rate of pig prices accelerating [12]. Sales and Consumption Changes - Sales situation: The pig sales volume continued to increase this week. As of the end of February, the overall pig sales plan was about 94.9% completed. It is expected that the sales plan in March will increase by 25.29% month - on - month, and the daily sales volume is expected to continue to increase. The pig slaughter weight is still at a high level. Large - scale enterprises have a relatively high enthusiasm for selling pigs, while ordinary farmers are resistant to low prices, and the secondary fattening has started to enter the market [13]. - Consumption situation: The pig slaughter volume increased month - on - month this week, and the frozen product inventory also increased. The apparent demand for pigs is relatively average. The pig price has shown an obvious downward trend, and the fresh - sales rate has also declined, so the pig demand is relatively average [13]. Breeding Profit - The overall pig breeding profit showed a downward trend. As of the week of February 27, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 159.65 yuan per head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan per head compared with last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 20.83 yuan per head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan per head compared with last week [22]. Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglets: The price of 7 - kilogram piglets this week was 348 yuan per head, a decrease of 9 yuan per head compared with last week, and the price of 15 - kilogram piglets was 447 yuan per head, a decrease of 12 yuan per head compared with last week. The enthusiasm of the breeding end to replenish piglets is relatively average [29]. - Sows: The sow price this week was 1,557 yuan per head, remaining the same as last week. The price ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs has decreased, the enthusiasm of the market to replenish sows is relatively average, and the overall culling is expected to increase [29]. Inventory of Reproductive Sows - According to the Yongyi data, the inventory of reproductive sows increased slightly month - on - month in December, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.54% and large - scale enterprises increasing by 0.36%. According to the Ganglian data, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 0.22% month - on - month in December, with large - scale enterprises decreasing by 0.18% and small and medium - sized farmers decreasing by 1.19%. Overall, there are certain differences in different sample calibers. Due to the general number of culled sows, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [32].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Involved - The notes pertain to the pig farming industry, specifically focusing on the breeding and production of piglets and sows. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Prohibition on Speculation**: There is a directive against the speculation of piglets, emphasizing the need for collaboration with farmers to avoid squeezing out smallholders [1][2]. 2. **Data Integrity Issues**: Concerns were raised regarding the distortion of data, particularly related to sows, which has led to misjudgments in the industry. A call for the industry to work together to improve data quality and enhance analytical accuracy was made [1][2]. 3. **Production Capacity Reduction**: The authorities have requested a continued reduction in production capacity, aiming to bring it down to approximately 3,300 units [1][2]. 4. **No Mention of Weight Reduction**: There was no discussion regarding the reduction of weight in the context of production or market strategies [1][2]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The emphasis on data accuracy suggests a potential risk for investors if the industry fails to address these issues, as misjudgments could lead to poor investment decisions. - The focus on supporting smallholders indicates a shift towards more sustainable practices in the industry, which could impact market dynamics and pricing strategies in the future.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is in a game - playing period, and it is still a long - way to go for capacity reduction even with the government's call. The futures market is affected by the post - Spring Festival demand slump and pre - Spring Festival spot price weakness. The LH2603 contract has fallen below the breeding cost, with limited downside, and the LH2605 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - In the first half of 2026, it will be difficult for the breeding end to achieve profitability, and the breeding end will be cautious about holding back pigs for fattening and secondary fattening [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, slaughterhouse orders increased, but the market was generally loose as the breeding end actively sold pigs to avoid post - Spring Festival supply pressure. As of February 5, the average spot price in Zhengzhou, Henan was 12.88 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous week. The futures price had a large discount, and the market was pessimistic about post - Spring Festival pig prices [9]. - In January, as the spot price was weak, the market's enthusiasm for replenishing piglets and sows cooled. As of February 4, the average price of 15kg piglets in Henan was 29.8 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 29, the price of binary sows (50kg) was stable at 1559 yuan/head [13]. - In January 2026, Wen's sold 2963600 pigs, with a significant month - on - month decrease of 35.05% and a slight year - on - year increase of 2.20%. Muyuan sold 7009000 commercial pigs, with a revenue of 10.566 billion yuan, an average price of 12.57 yuan/kg, and a profit of 731 million yuan. In 2025, the profitability among the top 30 pig enterprises varied greatly [19]. - In 2025, the national industrial feed production reached 342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. Pig feed contributed over 80% of the growth [20]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - By the end of 2025, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 160000 or 2.9%. Since September 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows has shown a downward trend, but the market's expectation for capacity reduction weakened in January 2026 due to the rebound of the spot price [22]. - In December 2025, the production index remained high. The farrowing rate of fattening pigs decreased slightly month - on - month. The production performance of sows and pigs was at a relatively high level [24]. - According to Steel Union data, the number of piglets born in December 2025 was 5.71 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32%. The market supply of commercial pigs will remain high in the first quarter of 2026 and is expected to ease after the second quarter [26]. - The post - Spring Festival slaughter pressure may decrease. It is expected that the slaughter volume of 10 listed enterprises in January may slightly increase, and the slaughter weight will decline. In January, the sample large - scale enterprises slightly exceeded the slaughter plan, and the planned slaughter volume in February decreased by 15.3% month - on - month [29]. - As of February 5, the national average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 1.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous week. Since February, the price difference has widened significantly [33]. - As of January 30, 2026, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 124 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was 25 yuan/head. The average breeding cost in the industry is around 12.5 - 13 yuan/kg. As of January 28, the pig - grain ratio was 5.76:1, below the national third - level reserve warning line [36]. 3.3 Demand - side and Inventory Analysis - This week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 38.49%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points from the previous week and 27.65 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected that the operating rate will increase before the Little New Year and then the slaughterhouses will gradually shut down [41]. - As of February 2, the average slaughter weight of live pigs decreased month - on - month. Since January, the breeding end has actively sold large - weight pigs and commercial pigs before the Spring Festival [44]. - As of February 6, the frozen meat storage rate of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the previous week. The frozen meat inventory has shown a slight downward trend [47]. 3.4 Spread and Basis Analysis - The LH2603 contract has a large discount after the Spring Festival. As it has fallen below the breeding cost and the bearish expectations have been mostly fulfilled, the downward space is limited. The price of the LH2605 contract is higher than that of the LH2603 contract, and the spread is close to the average level of previous years. If the post - festival opening price exceeds expectations, a long spread strategy can be considered [51].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Livestock Daily - Pig Report" [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The pressure on pig slaughter has decreased, and the spot price is gradually declining [1] - The overall supply of the pig market remains sufficient, and the future spot price is expected to be mainly downward [3][5] - The futures price of pigs continued to decline today, and the overall upward sustainability may be relatively limited [5] Group 4: Market Data Summary - **Spot Prices**: Today, pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The average price remained unchanged at 13.03 yuan/kg, with prices in most regions experiencing a decline [3] - **Futures Prices**: Most futures contracts showed a downward trend, with LH01 down 110 yuan to 12,030 yuan, LH03 down 155 yuan to 11,550 yuan, etc. Only LH09 increased by 20 yuan to 13,450 yuan [3] - **Sow/Piglet Prices**: Piglet prices rose from 330 yuan last week to 352 yuan this week, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1,557 yuan [3] - **Spot Breeding Profits**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising increased from - 11.54 yuan to 7.39 yuan, and the profit for purchasing piglets increased from - 2.31 yuan to 48.35 yuan [3] - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter volume decreased from 191,453 heads yesterday to 186,611 heads today, a decrease of 4,842 heads [3] - **Pig Price Spreads**: The spreads between different sizes of pigs showed certain changes, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.03 yuan, and the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs decreasing by 0.02 yuan [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish mindset [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on the hog market on January 19, 2026, with the title "Supply Pressure Reduces, Spot Runs Strongly" [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot hog prices across the country are running strongly, but considering the high inventory and large出栏 weight, the subsequent supply pressure may continue to show, and the spot price is expected to decline in the long - term [3][5] - Hog futures prices continued to decline today, affected by recent data and the full reflection of positive factors in previous price increases. The futures price may face downward pressure after the current round of increase stabilizes [5] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 13.03 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have increased, with the largest increase of 1 yuan/kg in Guangdong [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices of most contracts declined, such as LH03 down 275 yuan, LH05 down 210 yuan [3] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 330 yuan, up 23 yuan from last week; sow prices remain unchanged at 1557 yuan [3] Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 7.39 yuan, up 18.93 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets is 48.35 yuan, up 50.66 yuan [3] Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 is - 825, up 75 from yesterday; LH9 - 1 is 1290, down 270 from yesterday [3] Slaughter and Size Pig Spreads - The slaughter volume is 191,453 heads, down 927 from yesterday. The large - to - standard pig spread is 0.7, up 0.21 from yesterday [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish mindset [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [6]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Livestock Daily Report" and was released on January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price has continued to rebound. However, due to the high inventory and large average weight of hogs, the overall supply remains abundant, and the upward space for hog prices is limited. In the short term, the market may have phased support, but in the long term, the overall trend of the hog spot market is expected to be downward [3][5] - The futures price of hogs has generally risen, mainly driven by the increase in the spot price. In the short term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may have strong support. However, in the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price is expected to decline in the long run [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 12.92 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions showed an upward trend, with the largest increase of 0.27 yuan/kg in Zhejiang [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices generally rose, with LH01 up 305 to 11830, LH03 down 25 to 11785, LH05 up 5 to 12260, LH07 unchanged at 12940, LH09 down 5 to 13885, and LH11 down 15 to 13875 [3] Sow and Piglet Prices - The price of piglets this week is 251 yuan, up 24 yuan from last week, and the price of sows is 1554 yuan, up 3 yuan from last week [3] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 increased by 5 to - 945, LH9 - 1 decreased by 310 to 2055, LH9 - 11 increased by 10 to 10, and LH11 - 1 decreased by 320 to 2045 [3] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 191064 heads, an increase of 1276 heads from yesterday [3] Size - based Hog Price Spreads - The price spreads between different sizes of hogs remained unchanged [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Spot Market - The enthusiasm of large - scale enterprises to sell hogs has increased, but the volume remains low. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell hogs has remained stable. Secondary fattening has continued to enter the market, and the supply of large - weight hogs has increased. The slowdown in the sales rhythm has supported the hog price in the short term. However, due to the high inventory and large average weight of hogs, the supply pressure will continue to be reflected, and the overall upward space for hog prices is limited [3][5] Futures Market - The rise in futures prices is mainly driven by the increase in spot prices. In the short - term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may have strong support. In the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the upward sustainability of futures prices is limited. In the long - term, the futures price is expected to decline [5] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, adopt a bearish approach - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see strategy - For options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the current pressure on the live pig market remains significant, with prices under pressure. Although there has been a slight rebound in prices recently, due to factors such as increased planned slaughter by large - scale enterprises this month, high slaughter volumes from ordinary farmers, and high inventory in secondary fattening, along with high slaughter weights, the market pressure is expected to continue. In the futures market, there is also downward pressure [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: This week, live pig prices showed a slight oscillation, with most regions seeing price increases. Large - scale enterprises reduced their slaughter volumes, while ordinary farmers increased their active slaughter after price rebounds. Secondary fattening remained stable. Slaughter weights increased, and market demand improved, with an increase in slaughter volume and frozen product inventory. However, considering the increased planned slaughter of large - scale enterprises this month, high slaughter volumes from ordinary farmers, and high inventory in secondary fattening, the market pressure is still significant [5]. - **Futures Analysis**: The futures market showed downward pressure this week, reflecting concerns about supply pressure within the month. If spot prices do not drop significantly, the futures market may rebound, but currently, spot pressure is obvious, so futures prices are still under pressure [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a downward - biased approach; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see strategy; for options, use a short straddle strategy [7]. 3.2 Data Charts & Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Pig Prices - This week, live pig prices across the country oscillated slightly. Some regions saw price drops, while others had increases. The market slaughter pressure decreased significantly, and prices showed a phased rebound. Large - scale enterprises reduced their slaughter volumes, while ordinary farmers were more active in slaughtering. Secondary fattening was mainly in a wait - and - see state [12]. 3.2.2 Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter Situation**: The overall slaughter pressure improved this week. Large - scale enterprises reduced their slaughter volumes, while ordinary farmers were more active in slaughtering. Secondary fattening was mainly in a wait - and - see state. Slaughter weights continued to increase, and the supply pressure of large - weight pigs increased. Although large - scale enterprises reduced their slaughter this week, it is expected that the overall slaughter pressure will increase in the future [14]. - **Consumption Situation**: Pig demand continued to improve this week. Slaughter volume increased, frozen product inventory increased slightly, apparent demand increased, and the fresh - meat sales rate increased, indicating an improvement in overall demand [14]. 3.2.3 Breeding Profits As of the week ending December 5, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 167.69 yuan per head, a decrease of 19.71 yuan per head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 259.39 yuan per head, a decrease of 10.57 yuan per head from last week. Pig prices remained low, and breeding profits continued to decline [23]. 3.2.4 Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets remained unchanged from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets decreased by 2 yuan per head. The enthusiasm of farmers for replenishing piglets was average [30]. - **Sows**: The sow price decreased by 1 yuan per head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs continued to decline, and the enthusiasm for culling sows increased [30]. 3.2.5 Breeding Sow Inventory According to Yongyi's data, the breeding sow inventory decreased slightly in October. According to Ganglian's data, the inventory decreased by 0.38% in November. Overall, the breeding sow inventory has decreased [33].