大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 【生猪日报】供应压力继续体现 现货价格明显回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/7/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 14.48 | 14.53 | -0.05 | 山西（-100） | 14.20 | 14.29 | -0.09 | | 湖北（0） | 14.16 | 14.17 | -0.01 | 辽 宁 | 14.31 | 14.44 | -0.13 | | 安徽（200） | 14.55 | 14.64 | -0.09 | 吉林（-300） | 14.24 | 14.37 | -0.13 | | 湖南（100） | 14 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]112 | 度 维 | 标 指 | 单 位 | 本 期 | 上 期 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 解析与预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 格 价 | 标猪全国均价 最优交割地-四川标猪均价 | 元/公斤 元/公斤 | 14.19 13.63 | 14.7 14.38 | -0.51 -0.75 | -3.47% -5.22% | 1、本周现货市场价格继续回落，钢联数据显示本期标猪全国均价为 14.19元/公斤，周内继续下跌5毛/公斤，市场情绪整体转弱，近两周下 跌幅度接近1元/公斤。 2、周末现货价格小幅拉涨，价格快速下跌后社会猪源出现一定惜售情 绪，但屠宰计划完成较快，需求承接不足。 | | | 标猪河南均价 | 元/公斤 | 14.3 | 14.7 | -0.4 | -2.72% | | | | 白条价格 | 元/公斤 | 18.69 | 19.15 | -0.46 | -2.40% | | | | 仔猪价格 | 元/头 | 444.76 | 445.24 | -0.48 | -0.11 ...

| 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 07 月 20 日 生猪：宏观情绪扰动，等待产业逻辑兑现 （1）本周市场回顾（7.14-7.20） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 37.7 元/公斤（上周 37.7 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 14.43 元/公斤（上周 14.83 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1628 元/头（上周 1623 元/ 头）。供应端，集团略有增量，部分散户顺势出栏；需求端，需求维持较低水平，伴随温度升高抑制需求 增量，承接能力明显弱于 6 月。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.94KG（上周 124.91KG），出栏均重环比增加 0.02%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格偏弱运行。本周生猪期货 LH2509 合约最高价为 14360 元/吨，最低价为 13905 元/吨，收盘价为 14135 元/吨 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.07.18 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Expected Range-bound Fluctuations in Pig Prices" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the main contract declining by 1.46% on a weekly basis. In the short term, increased supply and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations. However, as prices weaken, it may stimulate the sentiment of farmers to hold prices and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down again at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. Overall, the market is expected to show a volatile trend, and short - term prices will change with the slaughter and secondary fattening entry and exit rhythms. The recommended strategy is range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply increased as the slaughter rhythm of farmers recovered in mid - month and the proportion of large pigs for slaughter accelerated due to high - temperature and rainy weather in the South. Demand was weak as high temperatures reduced people's willingness to buy pork, schools were on holiday, and the terminal sales were slow, leading to a continuous decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate, although it was higher than the same period last year. Overall, short - term supply increase and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations, but lower prices may stimulate farmers' price - holding sentiment and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Futures prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 16,156 lots, a decrease of 721 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 284, a decrease of 3 from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 565 yuan/ton this week [21]. - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 2.35% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and the same period last month [28]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On July 10, the national average market price of pork was 25.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 9, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.27, an increase of 0.06 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point [36]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.29% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month and 7.05% year - on - year [41]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In May, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 0.57% month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In June, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.7682 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year increase of 23.60%, while in small and medium - sized farms, it was 487,700 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% but a year - on - year increase of 57.41%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg from the previous week [47]. 3.4.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Farming Profit**: As of July 18, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 18.66 yuan/head, a decrease of 50.26 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 90.89 yuan/head, a decrease of 42.98 yuan/head from the previous week [52]. - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 18, the profit of egg - laying hens was a loss of 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.22 yuan/head from the previous week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was a loss of 0.56 yuan/head [52]. 3.4.3 Import - In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level during the same period [57]. 3.4.4 Substitutes - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. As of the week of July 17, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. 3.4.5 Feed - **Feed Price**: As of July 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2938.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [66]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 18, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 944.59, an increase of 0.7% from the previous week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - **Feed Output**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.9377 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 175,600 tons [75]. 3.4.6 CPI - As of June 2025, the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.1% [79]. 3.4.7 Downstream - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 29th week, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 25.15%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from the previous week but 5.94 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.44%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 4.52%. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. 3.5 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [88].

Summary of Conference Call on Pig Industry Data Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry in China, specifically discussing the trends in pig production, pricing, and government policies affecting the sector. Key Points and Arguments Pig Production and Capacity - From January to June 2025, the external sales of pork decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the number of sows eliminated increased by 7.6% year-on-year, indicating structural adjustments in production capacity [1][2] - The overall capacity of breeding sows is slightly declining, with a current count of approximately 4,050 heads compared to a peak of 4,080 heads earlier this year [3] - In June 2025, the capacity of breeding sows showed a slight increase across all scales of farms, although specific government data has not been released [6] Pricing Trends - The price of fat pigs remained stable overall, with fluctuations observed in May and June, where prices rebounded from nearly 14 yuan to close to 16 yuan due to the sales strategies of large enterprises [4] - The average price for the year is projected to be around 15.4 yuan, slightly lower than the previous year's average of 15.6 yuan, but profits remain higher due to effective supply control [5] Government Policies and Market Impact - The government aims to reduce the number of breeding sows, but the actual trend shows a slight increase in numbers across various farm sizes [8] - Policies implemented include reducing the average weight of slaughtered pigs and banning the issuance of breeding permits, which are expected to take effect fully on July 20 [8][10] - The government is expected to strengthen regulations on slaughter permits to combat the issue of "secondary breeding," which has been driving up market prices [9][11] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply situation from January to June 2025 is slightly lower or stable compared to the previous year, with a cumulative slaughter increase of 14% reported [5] - The birth rate of piglets has shown fluctuations, with a strong demand from large enterprises and a reduction in the number of breeding sows by smaller enterprises [7][21] - The overall supply for the second half of the year is expected to be higher than the first half, particularly in the fourth quarter, which will see increased supply compared to the third quarter [18][19] Future Price Expectations - The weight of fat pigs is expected to be controlled around 120 kg, with prices projected to range between 14 and 16 yuan for the year [17] - If consumer demand improves during the peak season, prices may see a slight increase, but overall growth is expected to be limited [17] Miscellaneous Insights - The impact of the current pandemic on national production capacity has been minimal, with quick recovery observed even in affected regions [20] - The monitoring data indicates that the weight of fat pigs has remained stable at around 124.2 kg for the past four months, despite some discrepancies with third-party data [13] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the pig farming industry, highlighting production trends, pricing dynamics, government interventions, and future expectations.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs has declined. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The supply pressure is still expected to exist in the future, and it is relatively difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4][6]. - The live pig futures have shown an obvious decline, and the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased. The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 0.2 yuan/kg in Jiangxi [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The previous slaughter completion was relatively good, and the recent slaughter pressure has decreased. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory [4]. - **Profit Situation**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 31.60 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head compared with yesterday [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: All LH contracts have declined. For example, LH01 is now 13700 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from yesterday; LH09 is 14010 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from yesterday [4]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of LH7 - 9 is - 120, an increase of 130 compared with yesterday; the spread of LH9 - 1 is 310, a decrease of 175 compared with yesterday [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Mainly operate in a high - level shock [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pig price showed a decline today. After the previous continuous price increase, the market supply began to recover, but the price decline space is limited. The follow - up supply pressure still exists, and it is difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4]. - The pig futures showed a volatile decline today. After the previous sharp increase, the market's bullish sentiment decreased, and the futures price is expected to be affected by the weakening spot price. The spread between contract months is expected to be volatile [5]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - The average spot price of pigs was 13.77 yuan/kg today, down 0.03 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions showed a decline [4]. Futures Price - Futures contracts like LH01 rose by 40, while LH03 and LH05 declined by 25 and 5 respectively. LH07 remained unchanged, LH09 declined by 35, LH11 rose by 15 [4]. Other Prices - The price of piglets was 440 yuan, up 1 yuan from last week; the price of sows was 1628 yuan, up 7 yuan from last week [4]. - The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan; the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan [4]. Market Indicators - The slaughter volume was 133,615 heads today, an increase of 1108 heads from yesterday [4]. - The spread between different - sized pigs showed some changes, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan/kg [4]. Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread was - 250, up 35; LH9 - 1 spread was 485, down 75; LH9 - 11 spread was 630, down 50; LH11 - 1 spread was - 145, down 25 [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: High - level volatile operation [6]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long - spread arbitrage [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenzhen Jinxinnong Technology Co., Ltd., is providing a guarantee of up to 40 million yuan for its subsidiary, Guangzhou Jinnong Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd., to support its business development and procurement of feed from Yinglian Feed (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. The guarantee is set to be effective until May 30, 2032, and can be used on a rolling basis [1][5]. Group 1: Guarantee Details - The total guarantee amount after this transaction will be 304 million yuan, which represents 200.73% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1][7]. - As of June 30, 2025, the actual external guarantee balance of the company and its subsidiaries is 160.91 million yuan, accounting for 106.25% of the most recent audited net assets [1][7]. - The guarantee covers 85.7143% of the principal, interest, penalties, and other costs related to the feed supply agreement [5][6]. Group 2: Subsidiary Information - Guangzhou Jinnong Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd. was established on March 3, 2020, with a registered capital of 47.38 million yuan [3][4]. - The company is primarily engaged in livestock breeding, feed production, and agricultural services [3][4]. - The total assets of Guangzhou Jinnong are reported at 120.96 million yuan, with total liabilities of 89.41 million yuan, resulting in net assets of 31.54 million yuan [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Guangzhou Jinnong reported a revenue of 10.85 million yuan and a net loss of 1.88 million yuan [5]. - The company has no external guarantees prior to this transaction, and its assets have been used as collateral for bank loans [5][6]. Group 4: Board Opinion - The board believes that the guarantee will facilitate the business expansion of Guangzhou Jinnong, stabilize the supply chain, and reduce costs, aligning with the overall interests of the company [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the pig market, covering price trends, supply and demand, and trading strategies [1][4] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Pig prices across China showed a downward trend this week due to improved supply after a previous price surge and weak price support [4] - Supply remains relatively tight as large - scale enterprises' output has not fully recovered, but it has improved compared to the previous period [4][9] - Demand is generally weak, with a decline in pig slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [4][10] - Futures prices are expected to have limited rebound space due to limited supply tightening [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, and futures prices will have limited upward potential [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly range - bound operation [5] - Arbitrage: LH91 positive spread [5] - Options: Wait and see [5] Group 5: Pig Price Situation - Pig prices across the country decreased this week. For example, in the Northeast, prices dropped by 0.35 - 0.5 yuan/kg to 14.38 - 14.5 yuan/kg [9] - Supply from large - scale enterprises has not fully recovered, but it has improved after a previous price rebound, leading to a slight price decline [9] Group 6: Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - Large - scale enterprises' output has not fully returned to normal, and the monthly output increase is limited [10] - Small - scale farmers' slaughter enthusiasm has increased, but the output remains low, and secondary fattening output has decreased [10] - Pig slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still tight [10] Consumption Situation - Pig market demand is generally weak, with a decline in slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [10] Group 7: Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits continued to improve. As of the week of July 11, self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.6 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan/head [15] Group 8: Sow and Piglet Prices Piglets - The price of 7 - kg piglets rose to 439 yuan/head, up 8 yuan/head, and the price of 15 - kg piglets rose to 539 yuan/kg, up 12 yuan/head. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets has increased [19] Sows - The sow price remained flat at 1621 yuan/head. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs has decreased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has increased, while the enthusiasm for replenishment is still low [19] Group 9: Reproductive Sow Inventory - In June, the reproductive sow inventory increased slightly according to both Yongyi and Ganglian data. Yongyi's comprehensive sample increased by 0.12% and large - scale enterprises by 0.22%, while Ganglian's data showed a 0.28% increase overall, with large - scale enterprises up 0.29% and small and medium - sized farmers up 0.17% [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs still exists, and the spot price is likely to face difficulties in continuing to strengthen. The futures market is also affected by the weakening of the spot price and is expected to show a certain degree of decline. The price will be in a state where both upward and downward movements are restricted [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Spot Information - Today's live pig spot prices generally declined. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling pigs has recovered, but the overall price decline is limited. The short - term supply situation has improved, and the price increase momentum is restricted. The secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist [2]. - The prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 439 and 1621 respectively. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87, an increase of 14.15 compared to the previous day, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60, an increase of 57.86 compared to the previous day [2]. - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 2020 to 132,507 heads. The price difference between different sizes of pigs also changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreasing by 0.03 to 0.07 [2]. Futures Information - Today's live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased, and the futures market has entered a high - level volatile state. The inter - month spread of the futures is expected to remain volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors in the short term [2][4]. - Among the futures contracts, LH01 was 13,725, an increase of 20; LH03 was 12,990, an increase of 10; LH05 was 13,160, a decrease of 15; LH07 was 14,000, an increase of 50; LH09 was 14,285, a decrease of 60; LH11 was 13,605, a decrease of 40 [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading is expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile state - For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread trade on the LH9 - 1 contract - For options, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]