Core Viewpoint - The company Tangrenshen (002567) is actively upgrading its breeding stock, with expectations of achieving a high utilization rate of sows and a significant increase in self-supplied piglets by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The company is currently enhancing the quality of its breeding pigs and sows [1] - By the end of the year, the sow capacity utilization rate is expected to reach over 90% [1] - The proportion of self-supplied piglets is anticipated to reach 80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tangrenshen (002567.SZ), is actively upgrading its breeding stock, with expectations of achieving a sow capacity utilization rate of over 90% by the end of the year and an own piglet supply ratio of 80% or more [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its breeding pigs and sows [1] - The expected sow capacity utilization rate is projected to exceed 90% by year-end [1] - The company aims for its own piglet supply to reach 80% or more [1]

Report Title - 20250829 Zhonghui Futures Monthly Report on Live Pigs: Gradual Reduction of Reproductive Sows Benefits Far - Month Contracts, Focus on Peak Season Performance [1] Core View - In the short - term, there is supply pressure, but demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months. The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies. The reference range for the main contract is [13700, 14500] [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Performance - In August, the national average live pig price decreased by 0.44 yuan to 13.82 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Jiangsu, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan all declined [3][15] - The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.01 yuan to 9.86 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 10.96 yuan to 1627.14 yuan/head. The market for culled sows continued to see a slight increase in volume [3][17] - The average出栏 price of 7kg piglets decreased by 80.47 yuan to 364.29 yuan/head, and the average出栏 price of 15kg piglets decreased by 123.96 yuan to 403.75 yuan/head [3][20] 2. Logic and Outlook - **Logic**: In August, the planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a 5.26% increase. The proportion of large pigs出栏 remained high. From January to July 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, indicating potential growth in出栏 volume in the second half of the year. High supply pressure is expected to continue until May 2026. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising continued to weaken, which is beneficial for the reduction of far - month production capacity. Demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months [4] - **Outlook**: The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies [5] 3. Key Data - **Spot Price**: Various prices such as live pigs, sows, and piglets showed a downward trend in August [3][6] - **Short - term Supply**: The official inventory at the end of the second quarter was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads. The planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August increased. The average出栏 weight of live pigs increased, while the average weight after slaughter of white - striped pigs decreased. The standard - fat price difference expanded, and the proportion of different weight - range inventories changed [6][23][25] - **Medium - term Supply**: In July, the national piglet survival rate decreased slightly, the number of piglet births increased, and piglet feed sales decreased slightly. The market supply of live pigs is expected to increase in Q4 2025 [6][29] - **Long - term Supply**: In July, the increase in reproductive sows in large - scale breeding enterprises was basically zero, the number of culled reproductive sows increased, and the official number of reproductive sows decreased [6][31] - **Demand**: In August, terminal consumption showed obvious off - season characteristics at first and then recovered. The slaughtering rate, daily slaughter volume, and frozen product storage rate changed slightly, while the fresh - sales rate decreased slightly [6][33] - **Cost**: In August, the corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased. The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising decreased [39][41] - **Profit**: In August, due to increased supply and limited demand recovery, the breeding profit decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit turned negative, and the loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased [43] - **Price Ratio**: In late August, the national average pig - grain price ratio fell below 6:1, entering the third - level warning range. The state plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which is beneficial for short - term market sentiment [45]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the national live pig prices showed an overall volatile trend, with limited overall market changes. The market is expected to remain in a state of relatively loose supply and demand in the future. On the futures side, the recent market showed a certain correction, but there is still support for the far - month contracts due to the relatively strong motivation for capacity reduction in the breeding sector [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The live pig prices across the country showed a volatile trend this week. Large - scale enterprises had a relatively high enthusiasm for slaughter, while ordinary farmers had average motivation. Secondary fattening began to enter the market. The slaughter weight remained high, and the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand was average, with a slight increase in slaughter volume but also an increase in frozen product inventory and a decline in fresh - sales rate. The futures market was under pressure from the spot side, but there was still support for far - month contracts [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a short - selling strategy near the high for near - month contracts and a long - buying strategy near the low for far - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Implement the LH91 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Sell far - month put options [5]. 2. Data Chart & Logic Analysis Live Pig Prices - This week, live pig prices in various regions showed a volatile trend. In the Northeast, the price was 13.4 - 13.5 yuan/kg, up 0.05 - 0.15 yuan/kg; in North China, it was 13.77 - 13.83 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.1 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, it was 13.83 - 13.92 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.15 yuan/kg; in East China, it was 13.9 - 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 to up 0.05 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, it was 13.55 - 13.71 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.25 yuan/kg; in Central China, it was 13.71 - 14.1 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.3 yuan/kg; in South China, it was 13.27 - 14.99 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg. The market supply pressure remained stable, and prices fluctuated within a narrow range [10]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume changed little this week. Large - scale enterprises had high enthusiasm for slaughter, while ordinary farmers had average motivation. Secondary fattening increased slightly. The slaughter weight increased slightly, and the price difference between large and small pigs rose, indicating a slowdown in the weight - reduction rhythm. The subsequent slaughter pressure still exists, but secondary fattening may have an impact. - **Consumption**: The demand was still average. The slaughter volume increased month - on - month, but the frozen product inventory also increased, and the fresh - sales rate continued to decline [12]. Breeding Profits - As of the week ending August 15, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 28.85 yuan/head, down 16.28 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head, down 22.91 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profits declined due to the general pig price trend and the strong performance of sows and piglets in the previous period [20]. Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 389 yuan/head, down 26 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/kg, down 30 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for piglet replenishment by breeders was average. - **Sows**: The sow price was 1612 yuan/head, down 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs showed a rebound trend, and the culling situation changed little. - **Farrowing Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi's data, the farrowing sow inventory in July increased slightly month - on - month, with a 0.52% increase in the comprehensive sample and a 0.14% increase in large - scale enterprises. According to Ganglian's data, the farrowing sow inventory in July remained flat month - on - month, with a 0.01% increase in large - scale enterprises and a 0.17% decrease in small and medium - sized farmers [25][27].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **pig farming industry** in China, focusing on the current state of pig prices, production capacity, and market dynamics related to breeding sows and piglets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Pig Prices**: Pig prices have fallen below 14 RMB/kg, currently around 13.8 RMB/kg, due to unmet market expectations, concentrated slaughtering by major companies, and weak consumer demand. A rebound is anticipated, but prices are not expected to remain below 14 RMB for long [1][8][10]. - **Breeding Sow Sales**: Sales of breeding sows have shown a significant year-on-year decline of 24% in July, indicating a potential reduction in the number of sows among small-scale farmers, while larger farms maintain a slight increase [1][3]. - **Production Capacity**: The overall production capacity remains stable, with a slight decrease compared to the previous year. Small farms (under 5,000 sows) have seen a 1.1% decrease in capacity, while medium and large farms have experienced slight increases of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively [1][7][14]. - **Government Policies**: The government aims to stabilize production capacity, with a target to maintain the breeding sow population around 39.5 million. A reduction of 1 million sows is planned, but the timeline is not yet defined [1][20][21]. Additional Important Content - **Export and Domestic Use**: Combined exports and domestic use of pigs have decreased by 20% year-on-year in July, reflecting a 7% decline from January to July compared to the previous year [5]. - **Cost and Profitability**: The current monitoring cost is approximately 14 RMB/kg, with most farms still profitable. However, if prices drop below 13.8 RMB/kg, some farms may start incurring losses [27][29]. - **Environmental Regulations**: Stricter environmental regulations are impacting the industry, requiring better waste management and potentially increasing production costs [22][24]. - **Future Supply and Demand**: Predictions indicate a slight increase in piglet numbers from October to January, but overall supply is expected to match demand. The price range for the upcoming months is projected to be between 14 and 16 RMB/kg [11][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market is experiencing a shift towards larger farms, with smaller farms struggling to maintain capacity. The trend indicates a consolidation in the industry, with larger players gaining market share [2][7][23]. Conclusion - The pig farming industry is currently facing challenges with falling prices and stricter regulations, but there are signs of potential recovery and consolidation among larger farms. The government's intervention and market dynamics will play crucial roles in shaping the future landscape of the industry [32].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/8/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 13.81 | 13.73 | 0.08 | 山西（-100） | 13.51 | 13.44 | 0.07 | | 湖北（0） | 13.72 | 13.66 | 0.06 | 辽 宁 | 13.46 | 13.39 | 0.07 | | 安徽（200） | 13.72 | 13.65 | 0.07 | 吉林（-300） | 13.37 | 13.34 | 0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 13.71 | 13.70 | 0.01 | 黑龙江 | 13.38 | 13.35 | 0.03 | | 四川（-100） | 13.47 | 13.31 | 0.16 | 福建（500） | 14.73 | 14.73 | 0 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pig Daily Report - July 22, 2025" [2] - Report type: Agricultural product research report from the Commodity Research Institute [1][5][8] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs continues to be reflected, and the spot price has significantly declined. The follow - up supply pressure is still expected to exist, and the further upward space of the live pig spot price is limited, with a certain downward pressure [4][6]. - The live pig futures market shows a relatively strong operation. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, while the spot price may decline due to market pressure, but the decline space is relatively limited [6]. Group 4: Price Data Summary Spot Price - The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.54 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions' prices have declined, with only a few regions remaining unchanged or slightly increasing [4]. Futures Price - Futures contracts such as LH01, LH03, LH05, LH09, and LH11 have all shown price increases, while LH07 remained unchanged [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - This week, the piglet price is 440 yuan, and the sow price is 1628 yuan, both remaining unchanged from last week [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 90.89 yuan/head, down 42.99 yuan/head from yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 18.66 yuan/head, down 50.26 yuan/head from yesterday [4]. Contract Spread - The spreads of LH7 - 9, LH9 - 1, LH9 - 11, and LH11 - 1 have all decreased [4]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 133,605 heads, down 1472 heads from yesterday [4]. Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs is 0.43 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg; the spread between large - sized pigs and standard pigs is 0.07 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly in a range - bound operation [7]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long - short spread arbitrage [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the spot market price of pigs continued to decline, with the national average price of standard pigs dropping by nearly 1 yuan/kg in the past two weeks. The market sentiment has weakened overall. Although there was a slight price increase over the weekend due to some reluctance to sell among pig farmers, the demand was insufficient [5]. - The price of piglets remained stable this week. Since the end of June, the price of piglets has been rising because current piglet purchases can still ensure pigs are ready for sale before the Spring Festival, which has increased the enthusiasm for piglet purchases [5]. - The sample slaughter volume decreased this week, and the downstream demand was weak. The losses of slaughterhouses widened, and the negative feedback from the demand side on live pig prices increased. The consumption in July - August is expected to remain sluggish, and the key factor affecting prices is still supply [6]. - The feed cost increased slightly this week, while the profit of pig farmers decreased significantly. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model has turned negative, and the losses of slaughterhouses continue [6]. - Overall, the supply in July is not expected to increase significantly. The supply in the second half of July may decrease compared to the middle of the month, which is conducive to price stabilization. However, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the negative feedback on price increases persists. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Overview and Market View 3.1.1 Price - The national average price of standard pigs this week was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/kg from last week, and the price in Sichuan (the optimal delivery area) was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg. The average price in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg. The price of pork carcasses was 18.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg [5]. - The price of piglets was 444.76 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/head, remaining relatively stable. The price of sows was 1638.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.38 yuan/head [5]. 3.1.2 Production Capacity - According to national statistics, the inventory of breeding sows in June was 4.043 million heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous month and a decrease of 370,000 heads from the peak in November last year. The inventory of breeding sows in the Steel Union sample increased by 15,100 heads to 5.2725 million heads [5]. - The average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.41, unchanged from the previous month, and the fattening survival rate was 93.21%, also unchanged [5]. 3.1.3 Supply - The planned slaughter volume of commercial pigs this month was 13.005 million heads, an increase of 164,300 heads from last month. The average slaughter weight was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg [5]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.27 yuan/kg, a significant change from - 0.12 yuan/kg last week, indicating that the price of fat pigs was relatively strong [5]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily slaughter volume was 107,803 heads, a decrease of 1,151 heads from last week. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 26.05%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.87%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [6]. - The wholesale volume of pork in Xinfadi Market increased by 3.51%, and the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market increased by 26.11% and 7.73% respectively [6]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - The feed cost was 2.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 114.86 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.44 yuan/head. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model was - 71.84 yuan/head, a significant decrease from 0.17 yuan/head last week [6]. - The profit of slaughtering was - 23 yuan/head, a slight improvement from - 23.9 yuan/head last week [6]. 3.1.6 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract (LH2509) was 14,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - The price difference between contracts (7 - 9) was - 455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan/ton, and the price difference between contracts (9 - 11) was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Market Price Trend - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, pork carcasses, piglets, and sows from 2022 - 2025, helping to understand the long - term price changes in the pig market [10]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of the pig market fluctuated. The supply - demand gap was relatively stable from March - May and widened significantly from June - August [12][15]. 3.4 Production Capacity and Supply Data 3.4.1 Basic Production Capacity - Sow Inventory - The report shows the inventory trends of official breeding sows and different samples of breeding sows (scale enterprises, scale + small and medium - sized enterprises, small and medium - sized farmers) from February - December [17][19][21]. 3.4.2 Basic Production Capacity - Litter Efficiency - It includes the number of piglets born in sample enterprises, the average number of healthy piglets per litter, the survival rate of piglets, and the fattening survival rate from March - December [26][27][28]. 3.4.3 Pig Inventory - Slaughter Plan and Slaughter Characteristics - The report presents the trends of the average slaughter weight, the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the north - south price difference, the monthly planned slaughter volume of scale enterprises, and the monthly slaughter volume of major pig - raising enterprises [36][37][38]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand 3.5.1 Slaughter Situation - It shows the trends of the fresh - meat sales rate, daily slaughter volume, storage capacity rate, and daily operating rate of slaughtering enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [41][42]. 3.5.2 Market Demand - The report presents the trends of the wholesale volume of pork carcasses in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market, and the price difference between live pigs and pork carcasses from 2022 - 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.5.3 Competitor Price Situation - It shows the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 - 2025 [52][53]. 3.6 Pig - Raising Cost and Industry Profit - The report presents the trends of the price of pig - raising feed, the profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model, the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening, the pig - grain ratio, and the expected and current costs of different pig - raising models from 2021 - 2025 [56][57][58]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation 3.7.1 Futures Market Trend - Each Futures Contract Trend - It shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 - 2026 [72][73][74]. 3.7.2 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Basis Trend - It presents the basis trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2023 - 2026 [83][84][85]. 3.7.3 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Price Difference Trend - It shows the price difference trends between different futures contracts (01 - 03, 03 - 05, 05 - 07, 07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01) from 2022 - 2025 [93][94][95].

Summary of Conference Call on Pig Industry Data Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry in China, specifically discussing the trends in pig production, pricing, and government policies affecting the sector. Key Points and Arguments Pig Production and Capacity - From January to June 2025, the external sales of pork decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the number of sows eliminated increased by 7.6% year-on-year, indicating structural adjustments in production capacity [1][2] - The overall capacity of breeding sows is slightly declining, with a current count of approximately 4,050 heads compared to a peak of 4,080 heads earlier this year [3] - In June 2025, the capacity of breeding sows showed a slight increase across all scales of farms, although specific government data has not been released [6] Pricing Trends - The price of fat pigs remained stable overall, with fluctuations observed in May and June, where prices rebounded from nearly 14 yuan to close to 16 yuan due to the sales strategies of large enterprises [4] - The average price for the year is projected to be around 15.4 yuan, slightly lower than the previous year's average of 15.6 yuan, but profits remain higher due to effective supply control [5] Government Policies and Market Impact - The government aims to reduce the number of breeding sows, but the actual trend shows a slight increase in numbers across various farm sizes [8] - Policies implemented include reducing the average weight of slaughtered pigs and banning the issuance of breeding permits, which are expected to take effect fully on July 20 [8][10] - The government is expected to strengthen regulations on slaughter permits to combat the issue of "secondary breeding," which has been driving up market prices [9][11] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply situation from January to June 2025 is slightly lower or stable compared to the previous year, with a cumulative slaughter increase of 14% reported [5] - The birth rate of piglets has shown fluctuations, with a strong demand from large enterprises and a reduction in the number of breeding sows by smaller enterprises [7][21] - The overall supply for the second half of the year is expected to be higher than the first half, particularly in the fourth quarter, which will see increased supply compared to the third quarter [18][19] Future Price Expectations - The weight of fat pigs is expected to be controlled around 120 kg, with prices projected to range between 14 and 16 yuan for the year [17] - If consumer demand improves during the peak season, prices may see a slight increase, but overall growth is expected to be limited [17] Miscellaneous Insights - The impact of the current pandemic on national production capacity has been minimal, with quick recovery observed even in affected regions [20] - The monitoring data indicates that the weight of fat pigs has remained stable at around 124.2 kg for the past four months, despite some discrepancies with third-party data [13] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the pig farming industry, highlighting production trends, pricing dynamics, government interventions, and future expectations.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs has declined. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The supply pressure is still expected to exist in the future, and it is relatively difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4][6]. - The live pig futures have shown an obvious decline, and the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased. The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 0.2 yuan/kg in Jiangxi [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The previous slaughter completion was relatively good, and the recent slaughter pressure has decreased. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory [4]. - **Profit Situation**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 31.60 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head compared with yesterday [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: All LH contracts have declined. For example, LH01 is now 13700 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from yesterday; LH09 is 14010 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from yesterday [4]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of LH7 - 9 is - 120, an increase of 130 compared with yesterday; the spread of LH9 - 1 is 310, a decrease of 175 compared with yesterday [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Mainly operate in a high - level shock [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]