研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 10 月 29 日 【生猪日报】市场变化有限 价格震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/10/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.67 | 12.75 | -0.08 | 山西 （-100） | 12.34 | 12.33 | 0.01 | | 湖北（0） | 12.50 | 12.30 | 0.20 | 辽 宁 | 12.61 | 12.62 | -0.01 | | 安徽（200） | 12.68 | 12.72 | -0.04 | 吉林（-300） | 12.57 | 12.55 | 0.02 | | 湖南（100） | 12.49 | 12.20 | ...

Summary of the Conference Call on September Pig Production Data Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry, specifically the production and market dynamics of breeding pigs and piglets in China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Breeding Pig Expansion Trends** The trend of breeding pig expansion is significant, reaching the highest level since 2022, with a 14% increase compared to January 2014 and an 8% increase compared to January 2023, although it is down 6.6% from the peak in January 2021 [1][2] 2. **Sales and Elimination of Breeding Pigs** In the last three months, external sales of breeding pigs have remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 20% and a cumulative decline of 9%. The elimination rate increased by 5% month-on-month and approximately 40% year-on-year in September [3][4] 3. **Mother Pig Inventory Changes by Scale** In September, the inventory of mother pigs varied by scale: farms with fewer than 5,000 pigs remained stable with a 0.4% increase; farms with 5,000 to 20,000 pigs saw a 0.9% decrease; and large enterprises with over 20,000 pigs experienced a slight decrease of 0.4% [5] 4. **Piglet Inventory Stability** The inventory of piglets has stabilized in the last two months, with only a slight decrease, potentially linked to high mortality rates in July and August [6] 5. **Impact of National Production Control Policies** National policies aimed at controlling production have led to a slight decrease in the number of mother pigs. Despite a target to reduce 1 million mother pigs, the slow market demand has hindered the pace of reduction [7][9] 6. **Current Market Conditions** The market is experiencing an increase in the elimination of mother pigs, with large pig prices losing their advantage, sometimes falling below standard pig prices. This indicates a weak market demand [8] 7. **Future Production Reduction Goals** There is a target to reduce the output of pigs by approximately 5% in 2026 to address supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on reducing the number of mother pigs to control overall output [9][11] 8. **Current Capacity Decrease Trends** The current capacity reduction is just beginning, expected to continue until January, with a potential acceleration if demand improves [12] 9. **Weather Impact on Disease and Production** Recent cooling has led to some minor disease issues, but no severe outbreaks have been reported. However, weather changes pose potential risks to production [13] 10. **Price Trends and Future Expectations** Prices have seen a significant drop due to increased supply and decreased demand, with expectations of a weak rebound if weather conditions improve and demand rises [14][16] 11. **Regional Price Disparities** There have been notable fluctuations in regional price differences, influenced by disease outbreaks and supply-demand relationships, with southern regions experiencing overcapacity [20][21] 12. **Future Capacity Expansion in Southern Regions** There is no specific data on capacity expansion in southern regions, but many enterprises are shifting focus from northern to southern regions for new investments [22] Other Important Insights - The industry is currently facing significant losses, with losses exceeding 100 yuan per head for both fat and piglets, which could lead to a reduction in overall production capacity if sustained [18][19]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力略有好转 现货小幅震荡 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/9/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.78 | 12.88 | -0.10 | 山西 （-100） | 12.24 | 12.28 | -0.04 | | 湖北（0） | 12.52 | 12.52 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 12.69 | 12.65 | 0.04 | | 安徽（200） | 12.87 | 12.90 | -0.03 | 吉林（-300） | 12.68 | 12.65 | 0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 12.40 | 12.40 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 12.59 | 12 ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the pig market has significantly increased, and the price decline has deepened. The market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to decline. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The prices of live pigs across the country continued to decline this week. The supply pressure increased, with increased slaughter from scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply of large - weight pigs was relatively large. The demand was average, with large slaughter volume, increased frozen inventory, and decreased fresh - sales rate. The market is in a loose supply - demand state, and the price is expected to decline. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: LH15 reverse spread. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. 2. Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week. For example, in the Northeast, it was 12.38 - 12.55 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in North China, it was 12.82 - 12.87 yuan/kg, down 0.6 - 0.65 yuan/kg. The overall supply pressure increased, and the pig prices were under great pressure [11]. 3. Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - The slaughter volume of live pigs continued to increase rapidly this week. The slaughter volume of scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening all increased. The slaughter weight continued to increase slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs increased significantly. The supply pressure still exists [13]. Consumption Situation - The demand in the pig market continued to be average. The slaughter volume increased, but the frozen inventory also increased, and the fresh - sales rate decreased significantly. The actual demand lacked obvious incremental performance [13]. 4. Breeding Profits - As of the week ending September 19, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 24.44 yuan/head, down 41.29 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit continued to decline [21]. 5. Prices of Sows and Piglets Piglets - This week, the price of 7 - kg piglets was 259 yuan/head, down 32 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 358 yuan/kg, down 36 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets decreased significantly [26]. Sows - This week, the sow price was 1590 yuan/head, down 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs decreased, and the enthusiasm for culling increased [26]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in August increased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and scale enterprises increasing by 0.02%. According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in August decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, with scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and small and medium - sized farmers decreasing by 0.09% [28].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and the subsequent spot prices are expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to trend downward [4][7] - The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the expected supply pressure, and the far - month contracts are affected by capacity changes. Although the current price is low, there is still a certain downward pressure [7] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Summary Spot Prices - The average spot price of pigs today is 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have generally declined [4] Futures Prices - Futures prices of various contracts have mostly declined, such as LH01 down 180 to 13330, LH03 down 150 to 12855 [4] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 259 yuan, down 32 from last week; sow prices are 1590 yuan, down 2 from last week [4] Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profit is 16.84 yuan/head, down 15.39 from yesterday; profit from purchasing piglets is - 161.93 yuan/head, down 13.53 from yesterday [4] Contract Spreads - Spreads between different contracts have changed, such as LH7 - 9 down 150 to 1165, LH9 - 1 up 180 to - 345 [4] Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume is 149450 heads, an increase of 842 from yesterday [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short near - month contracts on rallies - Arbitrage: Reverse spread on LH15 - Options: Hold off on trading [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company Tangrenshen (002567) is actively upgrading its breeding stock, with expectations of achieving a high utilization rate of sows and a significant increase in self-supplied piglets by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The company is currently enhancing the quality of its breeding pigs and sows [1] - By the end of the year, the sow capacity utilization rate is expected to reach over 90% [1] - The proportion of self-supplied piglets is anticipated to reach 80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tangrenshen (002567.SZ), is actively upgrading its breeding stock, with expectations of achieving a sow capacity utilization rate of over 90% by the end of the year and an own piglet supply ratio of 80% or more [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its breeding pigs and sows [1] - The expected sow capacity utilization rate is projected to exceed 90% by year-end [1] - The company aims for its own piglet supply to reach 80% or more [1]

Report Title - 20250829 Zhonghui Futures Monthly Report on Live Pigs: Gradual Reduction of Reproductive Sows Benefits Far - Month Contracts, Focus on Peak Season Performance [1] Core View - In the short - term, there is supply pressure, but demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months. The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies. The reference range for the main contract is [13700, 14500] [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Performance - In August, the national average live pig price decreased by 0.44 yuan to 13.82 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Jiangsu, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan all declined [3][15] - The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.01 yuan to 9.86 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 10.96 yuan to 1627.14 yuan/head. The market for culled sows continued to see a slight increase in volume [3][17] - The average出栏 price of 7kg piglets decreased by 80.47 yuan to 364.29 yuan/head, and the average出栏 price of 15kg piglets decreased by 123.96 yuan to 403.75 yuan/head [3][20] 2. Logic and Outlook - **Logic**: In August, the planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a 5.26% increase. The proportion of large pigs出栏 remained high. From January to July 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, indicating potential growth in出栏 volume in the second half of the year. High supply pressure is expected to continue until May 2026. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising continued to weaken, which is beneficial for the reduction of far - month production capacity. Demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months [4] - **Outlook**: The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies [5] 3. Key Data - **Spot Price**: Various prices such as live pigs, sows, and piglets showed a downward trend in August [3][6] - **Short - term Supply**: The official inventory at the end of the second quarter was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads. The planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August increased. The average出栏 weight of live pigs increased, while the average weight after slaughter of white - striped pigs decreased. The standard - fat price difference expanded, and the proportion of different weight - range inventories changed [6][23][25] - **Medium - term Supply**: In July, the national piglet survival rate decreased slightly, the number of piglet births increased, and piglet feed sales decreased slightly. The market supply of live pigs is expected to increase in Q4 2025 [6][29] - **Long - term Supply**: In July, the increase in reproductive sows in large - scale breeding enterprises was basically zero, the number of culled reproductive sows increased, and the official number of reproductive sows decreased [6][31] - **Demand**: In August, terminal consumption showed obvious off - season characteristics at first and then recovered. The slaughtering rate, daily slaughter volume, and frozen product storage rate changed slightly, while the fresh - sales rate decreased slightly [6][33] - **Cost**: In August, the corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased. The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising decreased [39][41] - **Profit**: In August, due to increased supply and limited demand recovery, the breeding profit decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit turned negative, and the loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased [43] - **Price Ratio**: In late August, the national average pig - grain price ratio fell below 6:1, entering the third - level warning range. The state plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which is beneficial for short - term market sentiment [45]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the national live pig prices showed an overall volatile trend, with limited overall market changes. The market is expected to remain in a state of relatively loose supply and demand in the future. On the futures side, the recent market showed a certain correction, but there is still support for the far - month contracts due to the relatively strong motivation for capacity reduction in the breeding sector [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The live pig prices across the country showed a volatile trend this week. Large - scale enterprises had a relatively high enthusiasm for slaughter, while ordinary farmers had average motivation. Secondary fattening began to enter the market. The slaughter weight remained high, and the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand was average, with a slight increase in slaughter volume but also an increase in frozen product inventory and a decline in fresh - sales rate. The futures market was under pressure from the spot side, but there was still support for far - month contracts [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a short - selling strategy near the high for near - month contracts and a long - buying strategy near the low for far - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Implement the LH91 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Sell far - month put options [5]. 2. Data Chart & Logic Analysis Live Pig Prices - This week, live pig prices in various regions showed a volatile trend. In the Northeast, the price was 13.4 - 13.5 yuan/kg, up 0.05 - 0.15 yuan/kg; in North China, it was 13.77 - 13.83 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.1 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, it was 13.83 - 13.92 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.15 yuan/kg; in East China, it was 13.9 - 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 to up 0.05 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, it was 13.55 - 13.71 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.25 yuan/kg; in Central China, it was 13.71 - 14.1 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.3 yuan/kg; in South China, it was 13.27 - 14.99 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg. The market supply pressure remained stable, and prices fluctuated within a narrow range [10]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume changed little this week. Large - scale enterprises had high enthusiasm for slaughter, while ordinary farmers had average motivation. Secondary fattening increased slightly. The slaughter weight increased slightly, and the price difference between large and small pigs rose, indicating a slowdown in the weight - reduction rhythm. The subsequent slaughter pressure still exists, but secondary fattening may have an impact. - **Consumption**: The demand was still average. The slaughter volume increased month - on - month, but the frozen product inventory also increased, and the fresh - sales rate continued to decline [12]. Breeding Profits - As of the week ending August 15, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 28.85 yuan/head, down 16.28 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head, down 22.91 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profits declined due to the general pig price trend and the strong performance of sows and piglets in the previous period [20]. Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 389 yuan/head, down 26 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/kg, down 30 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for piglet replenishment by breeders was average. - **Sows**: The sow price was 1612 yuan/head, down 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs showed a rebound trend, and the culling situation changed little. - **Farrowing Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi's data, the farrowing sow inventory in July increased slightly month - on - month, with a 0.52% increase in the comprehensive sample and a 0.14% increase in large - scale enterprises. According to Ganglian's data, the farrowing sow inventory in July remained flat month - on - month, with a 0.01% increase in large - scale enterprises and a 0.17% decrease in small and medium - sized farmers [25][27].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **pig farming industry** in China, focusing on the current state of pig prices, production capacity, and market dynamics related to breeding sows and piglets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Pig Prices**: Pig prices have fallen below 14 RMB/kg, currently around 13.8 RMB/kg, due to unmet market expectations, concentrated slaughtering by major companies, and weak consumer demand. A rebound is anticipated, but prices are not expected to remain below 14 RMB for long [1][8][10]. - **Breeding Sow Sales**: Sales of breeding sows have shown a significant year-on-year decline of 24% in July, indicating a potential reduction in the number of sows among small-scale farmers, while larger farms maintain a slight increase [1][3]. - **Production Capacity**: The overall production capacity remains stable, with a slight decrease compared to the previous year. Small farms (under 5,000 sows) have seen a 1.1% decrease in capacity, while medium and large farms have experienced slight increases of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively [1][7][14]. - **Government Policies**: The government aims to stabilize production capacity, with a target to maintain the breeding sow population around 39.5 million. A reduction of 1 million sows is planned, but the timeline is not yet defined [1][20][21]. Additional Important Content - **Export and Domestic Use**: Combined exports and domestic use of pigs have decreased by 20% year-on-year in July, reflecting a 7% decline from January to July compared to the previous year [5]. - **Cost and Profitability**: The current monitoring cost is approximately 14 RMB/kg, with most farms still profitable. However, if prices drop below 13.8 RMB/kg, some farms may start incurring losses [27][29]. - **Environmental Regulations**: Stricter environmental regulations are impacting the industry, requiring better waste management and potentially increasing production costs [22][24]. - **Future Supply and Demand**: Predictions indicate a slight increase in piglet numbers from October to January, but overall supply is expected to match demand. The price range for the upcoming months is projected to be between 14 and 16 RMB/kg [11][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market is experiencing a shift towards larger farms, with smaller farms struggling to maintain capacity. The trend indicates a consolidation in the industry, with larger players gaining market share [2][7][23]. Conclusion - The pig farming industry is currently facing challenges with falling prices and stricter regulations, but there are signs of potential recovery and consolidation among larger farms. The government's intervention and market dynamics will play crucial roles in shaping the future landscape of the industry [32].