【生猪周报】供应压力好转 价格小幅反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 | | | 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 1.综合分析&交易策略 87/87/87 ◼ 综合分析 本周生猪价格整体呈现小幅震荡态势，部分地区价格有所回落，但多数地区价格以上涨为主。规模企业出栏量下降比较明 显，近期规模企业出栏整体有所减少。但普通养殖户出栏仍然比较积极，价格反弹后主动出栏量有所增加。二次育肥整体 比较稳定，由于当前存栏维持高位同时生猪价格震荡运行，入场以及出栏数量整体变化有限。出栏体重方面，生猪出栏体 重整体呈现增加态势，市场大体重猪源供应量有所增加，大小猪价差整体有所回落。需求方面来看，本周生猪屠宰量整体 呈现增加态势，冻品库存整体小幅增加，一定程度 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the national breeding sow inventory has fallen below 40 million heads as of the end of October, indicating a significant adjustment in the pig farming sector [4] - The report notes a continuous decline in pig prices, with the average price dropping to 11.6 yuan/kg by November 24, down from 12.25 yuan/kg at the end of September, leading to widespread losses among farming enterprises [4] - The report suggests that the industry may enter a period of accelerated capacity reduction due to policy adjustments and ongoing losses, presenting potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [4] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 0.83% and an absolute return of 15.89% [2] Key Events and Data - The report mentions that the breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.8% in October, marking a continuous decline for two months [4] - The average price of three-way piglets reached a new low of 24.14 yuan/kg as of November 20, indicating a pessimistic outlook for prices in 2026 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a left-side layout in the pig farming sector, focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, DeKang Agriculture (Hong Kong), Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group, while also considering investment opportunities in the fishery sector [4]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Livestock Daily Report" and dated November 18, 2025, focusing on the hog market [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall hog supply is stable, and prices are fluctuating slightly. The subsequent supply pressure in the hog market may still be significant, and the general trend of spot hog prices is expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure in the medium to long - term [1][3][4] Group 4: Spot Price Summary - Today, hog spot prices across the country showed a slight rebound. The average price remained unchanged at 11.29 yuan/kg. Some regions had price increases, such as Hebei with an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg, while Guizhou had a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg [3] - The scale enterprises' hog出栏量 increased overall. Although the monthly hog出栏 plan decreased, the overall supply pressure still exists. Ordinary farmers'出栏 enthusiasm decreased, and the overall出栏 pressure improved compared to before [3] - The number of secondary fattening entrants decreased recently. The price difference between large and small hogs decreased, and hog prices declined, reducing the enthusiasm for replenishment [3] - The current hog出栏 weight rebounded, and the supply of large - weight hogs is still relatively large. The slowdown in出栏 rhythm supported hog prices to some extent. Due to the high hog inventory and relatively large出栏 weight, the subsequent supply pressure in the hog market may still be reflected, and the general trend of hog spot prices is expected to be weak [3] Group 5: Futures Price Summary - Hog futures prices showed a downward trend, affected by the large subsequent supply pressure. However, due to the full reflection of negative factors in the previous decline of the futures market, the recent futures market reaction to the decline in spot prices was not obvious [4] - In the short - term, the change in monthly hog出栏量 may be limited, and prices will generally fluctuate. In the medium - term, due to the high overall inventory and obvious supply pressure, the general trend of spot prices will be downward. Therefore, both spot and futures prices may fluctuate recently, but in the medium to long - term, hog prices are under obvious downward pressure, and the futures market also has certain pressure [4] Group 6: Other Price and Data Summary - Piglet and sow prices remained unchanged this week compared to last week, at 209 yuan and 1546 yuan respectively [3] - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 25.60 yuan to - 114.81 yuan/head, and for purchasing piglets, it decreased by 30.09 yuan to - 205.64 yuan/head [3] - The slaughter volume decreased by 228 heads to 165,897 heads. The price difference between standard hogs and medium - sized hogs increased by 0.02 yuan, while the price difference between large hogs and standard hogs decreased by 0.05 yuan [3] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Options: Implement a strategy of selling wide straddles [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: [Research Institute] Agricultural Products R & D Report - Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1][3] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pig price in the country is in a volatile state today. The scale - enterprise's pig -出栏 volume continues to decline, and the overall supply pressure has improved compared with before. The ordinary farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs has not changed much, and the recent pig - selling volume has decreased. The second - fattening inventory is increasing rapidly, and the entry enthusiasm is high. The supply of large - weight pigs is still sufficient. The subsequent pig spot price is expected to be weak, and the pig price is still under pressure [3][4]. - The pig futures price is in a volatile state. The supply pressure has improved recently, and the futures' reaction to the spot price increase is limited. The far - month futures price begins to decline, and the market is worried about subsequent production capacity release. The futures price is expected to have limited upward space and will mainly operate in a volatile manner [4]. Group 4: Data Summaries Spot Price - Today's average pig spot price is 12.47 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in different regions show different changes, such as Hubei up 0.20 yuan/kg, Hunan up 0.29 yuan/kg, and Guangdong up 0.35 yuan/kg [3]. Futures Price - Futures contracts such as LH01, LH03, etc. show different price changes. For example, LH01 is up 25 yuan, and LH03 is down 50 yuan [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The piglet price this week is 174 yuan, up 9 yuan from last week; the sow price is 1545 yuan, unchanged from last week [3]. Breeding Profits - The self - breeding and self - raising spot breeding profit is - 185.68 yuan/head, up 59.01 yuan from yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan from yesterday [3]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 162,661 heads, down 1,215 heads from yesterday [3]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different futures contracts and different pig sizes show different changes, such as LH7 - 9 down 20 yuan, and the large - pig to standard - pig price spread up 0.07 yuan [3]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]

Summary of the Conference Call on September Pig Production Data Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry, specifically the production and market dynamics of breeding pigs and piglets in China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Breeding Pig Expansion Trends** The trend of breeding pig expansion is significant, reaching the highest level since 2022, with a 14% increase compared to January 2014 and an 8% increase compared to January 2023, although it is down 6.6% from the peak in January 2021 [1][2] 2. **Sales and Elimination of Breeding Pigs** In the last three months, external sales of breeding pigs have remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 20% and a cumulative decline of 9%. The elimination rate increased by 5% month-on-month and approximately 40% year-on-year in September [3][4] 3. **Mother Pig Inventory Changes by Scale** In September, the inventory of mother pigs varied by scale: farms with fewer than 5,000 pigs remained stable with a 0.4% increase; farms with 5,000 to 20,000 pigs saw a 0.9% decrease; and large enterprises with over 20,000 pigs experienced a slight decrease of 0.4% [5] 4. **Piglet Inventory Stability** The inventory of piglets has stabilized in the last two months, with only a slight decrease, potentially linked to high mortality rates in July and August [6] 5. **Impact of National Production Control Policies** National policies aimed at controlling production have led to a slight decrease in the number of mother pigs. Despite a target to reduce 1 million mother pigs, the slow market demand has hindered the pace of reduction [7][9] 6. **Current Market Conditions** The market is experiencing an increase in the elimination of mother pigs, with large pig prices losing their advantage, sometimes falling below standard pig prices. This indicates a weak market demand [8] 7. **Future Production Reduction Goals** There is a target to reduce the output of pigs by approximately 5% in 2026 to address supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on reducing the number of mother pigs to control overall output [9][11] 8. **Current Capacity Decrease Trends** The current capacity reduction is just beginning, expected to continue until January, with a potential acceleration if demand improves [12] 9. **Weather Impact on Disease and Production** Recent cooling has led to some minor disease issues, but no severe outbreaks have been reported. However, weather changes pose potential risks to production [13] 10. **Price Trends and Future Expectations** Prices have seen a significant drop due to increased supply and decreased demand, with expectations of a weak rebound if weather conditions improve and demand rises [14][16] 11. **Regional Price Disparities** There have been notable fluctuations in regional price differences, influenced by disease outbreaks and supply-demand relationships, with southern regions experiencing overcapacity [20][21] 12. **Future Capacity Expansion in Southern Regions** There is no specific data on capacity expansion in southern regions, but many enterprises are shifting focus from northern to southern regions for new investments [22] Other Important Insights - The industry is currently facing significant losses, with losses exceeding 100 yuan per head for both fat and piglets, which could lead to a reduction in overall production capacity if sustained [18][19]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to persist, and the subsequent spot prices are likely to remain weak. The futures market also faces certain pressure, with the overall price trend expected to be downward [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country showed an overall oscillating trend. The average price remained unchanged at 12.38 yuan/kg. The prices in most regions showed only slight fluctuations, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Futures Price - Futures prices showed a small rebound. LH01 rose by 130 yuan to 13,345 yuan, LH03 rose by 120 yuan to 12,755 yuan, LH05 rose by 75 yuan to 13,160 yuan, LH07 rose by 140 yuan to 13,860 yuan, LH09 remained unchanged at 12,600 yuan, and LH11 rose by 65 yuan to 12,730 yuan [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - Piglet prices decreased by 22 yuan to 236 yuan this week, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1,588 yuan [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 41.29 yuan to - 24.44 yuan, and the profit for purchasing piglets decreased by 37.38 yuan to - 199.31 yuan [4]. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased by 1,071 heads to 155,064 heads [4]. Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased by 0.01 yuan to 0.34 yuan, the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.01 yuan to 0.13 yuan, the price difference between large pigs and medium - large pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan to 0.1 yuan, and the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.03 yuan to 0.23 yuan [4]. Market Analysis - The supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to remain high. Although the scale enterprise's slaughter volume has slightly decreased, it is still at a high level. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to slaughter has decreased compared with the previous period, but the pressure has increased due to the relatively large inventory. The inventory of secondary fattening has decreased, and the recent entry has increased as the price has fallen to a low level. The slaughter weight of live pigs remains high, and the supply of large - weight pigs may continue to increase [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies for near - term contracts. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread for LH15. - Options: Hold off on trading. [7]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the pig market has significantly increased, and the price decline has deepened. The market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to decline. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The prices of live pigs across the country continued to decline this week. The supply pressure increased, with increased slaughter from scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply of large - weight pigs was relatively large. The demand was average, with large slaughter volume, increased frozen inventory, and decreased fresh - sales rate. The market is in a loose supply - demand state, and the price is expected to decline. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: LH15 reverse spread. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. 2. Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week. For example, in the Northeast, it was 12.38 - 12.55 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in North China, it was 12.82 - 12.87 yuan/kg, down 0.6 - 0.65 yuan/kg. The overall supply pressure increased, and the pig prices were under great pressure [11]. 3. Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - The slaughter volume of live pigs continued to increase rapidly this week. The slaughter volume of scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening all increased. The slaughter weight continued to increase slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs increased significantly. The supply pressure still exists [13]. Consumption Situation - The demand in the pig market continued to be average. The slaughter volume increased, but the frozen inventory also increased, and the fresh - sales rate decreased significantly. The actual demand lacked obvious incremental performance [13]. 4. Breeding Profits - As of the week ending September 19, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 24.44 yuan/head, down 41.29 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit continued to decline [21]. 5. Prices of Sows and Piglets Piglets - This week, the price of 7 - kg piglets was 259 yuan/head, down 32 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 358 yuan/kg, down 36 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets decreased significantly [26]. Sows - This week, the sow price was 1590 yuan/head, down 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs decreased, and the enthusiasm for culling increased [26]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in August increased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and scale enterprises increasing by 0.02%. According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in August decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, with scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and small and medium - sized farmers decreasing by 0.09% [28].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and the subsequent spot prices are expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to trend downward [4][7] - The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the expected supply pressure, and the far - month contracts are affected by capacity changes. Although the current price is low, there is still a certain downward pressure [7] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Summary Spot Prices - The average spot price of pigs today is 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have generally declined [4] Futures Prices - Futures prices of various contracts have mostly declined, such as LH01 down 180 to 13330, LH03 down 150 to 12855 [4] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 259 yuan, down 32 from last week; sow prices are 1590 yuan, down 2 from last week [4] Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profit is 16.84 yuan/head, down 15.39 from yesterday; profit from purchasing piglets is - 161.93 yuan/head, down 13.53 from yesterday [4] Contract Spreads - Spreads between different contracts have changed, such as LH7 - 9 down 150 to 1165, LH9 - 1 up 180 to - 345 [4] Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume is 149450 heads, an increase of 842 from yesterday [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short near - month contracts on rallies - Arbitrage: Reverse spread on LH15 - Options: Hold off on trading [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company Tangrenshen (002567) is actively upgrading its breeding stock, with expectations of achieving a high utilization rate of sows and a significant increase in self-supplied piglets by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The company is currently enhancing the quality of its breeding pigs and sows [1] - By the end of the year, the sow capacity utilization rate is expected to reach over 90% [1] - The proportion of self-supplied piglets is anticipated to reach 80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tangrenshen (002567.SZ), is actively upgrading its breeding stock, with expectations of achieving a sow capacity utilization rate of over 90% by the end of the year and an own piglet supply ratio of 80% or more [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its breeding pigs and sows [1] - The expected sow capacity utilization rate is projected to exceed 90% by year-end [1] - The company aims for its own piglet supply to reach 80% or more [1]