华西证券表示，全国能繁母猪存栏量在10月份下降至4000万头以下，表明行业正经历产能去化过程。预 计随着政策支持及市场调整，生猪行业未来将呈现提质增效的趋势，成本较低、财务状况较好的优质企 业市场份额将进一步提高。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料加工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。中证畜牧 指数覆盖了畜禽养殖、饲料及动保等多个细分领域，具有较强的行业代表性。 ...

开源证券指出，前期生猪超卖叠加降温消费提振，猪价或阶段性转强。展望后市，供给端受10月生猪超 卖及年初能繁减量影响，生猪供给或阶段性收缩；需求端，中央气象台于11月15日发布寒潮蓝色预警， 气温转凉猪肉年末消费有望提振。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料加工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。中证畜牧 指数覆盖了畜禽养殖、饲料及动保等多个细分领域，具有较强的行业代表性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

根据wind数据，养殖ETF（159865）盘中流入3.01亿份，盘中净流入2.44亿份，资金抢筹养殖资产。 长江证券表示，生猪养殖行业正式进入亏损去产能阶段，预计未来几年供应压力持续较大。由于行业负 债率和流动比率改善有限，产能去化可能进一步加速。此外，行业产能调控政策与亏损去产能相互作 用，可能导致本轮产能去化比2021和2023年更为彻底。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料加工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。中证畜牧 指数覆盖了畜禽养殖、饲料及动保等多个细分领域，具有较强的行业代表性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The swine breeding industry has entered a phase of loss and capacity reduction, with significant supply pressure expected to persist into the first half of 2026 due to both forward-looking indicators and seasonal demand declines [1] - The ongoing process of capacity reduction is influenced by the large variance in breeding costs, with less competitive operators likely to exit the market first, leading to a more optimized competitive landscape in the industry [1] - Companies with cost advantages and strong cash flow are expected to experience longer profit cycles in the current downturn [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock breeding and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The CSI Livestock Index covers multiple sub-sectors, including livestock breeding, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

养殖ETF（159865）跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，含"猪"量约60%，感兴趣的投资者可以关注相关布局机 会。 政策端对能繁母猪存栏向下调控方向不变，在政策调控下预计规模集团能繁母猪存栏量出现下降，而中 小企业或因养殖成本压力逐步调减产能。在行业产能有序调控的背景下，预计能繁母猪存栏下降至合理 区间，中期行业盈利中枢有望提升。 资金面来看，随着猪价走低，养殖板块延续震荡，左侧布局资金持续流入，养殖ETF（159865）今年来 份额增长超118%，当前规模超81亿元。 今日，养殖板块反弹，养殖ETF（159865）涨超1%。 国金证券表示，生猪价格自年初以来呈现震荡向下态势，受益于养殖成本的改善，生猪养殖企业在上半 年均实现较好的盈利，而随着供给端的逐步增加猪价进一步下跌，25Q3全国生猪均价13.79元/公斤，同 比-29.05%，在猪价大幅下跌的背景下，部分企业已经开始出现亏损，预计行业开启去产能。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the pig farming industry remains significant in Q4, but ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to positively impact pig prices in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Since May 2024, pig production capacity has increased, leading to continued supply growth expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, which will exert pressure on pig prices [1] - The industry is actively implementing "anti-involution" strategies, focusing on controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting second breeding [1] Policy and Market Impact - The enforcement of policies is expected to intensify, coupled with recent low pig prices and increasing losses, which may accelerate the reduction of production capacity [1] - A new upward trend in pig prices is anticipated in the second half of next year [1] Industry Index Overview - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry experienced a decline in performance in Q3 2025, particularly in the pig farming sector, while the white chicken farming sector showed growth [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Summary - The pig farming sector generated revenue of 101.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.75% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.69% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the pig farming sector was 6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 67.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 27.21% due to a drop in pig prices compared to the previous year [1]. - In contrast, the white chicken farming sector achieved revenue of 8.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.03% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the white chicken farming sector was 316 million yuan, benefiting from a recovery in chick prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side indicates that from April 2024, pig farming entered a profitable phase, with the breeding sow inventory gradually increasing. As of September 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.35 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2]. - The total pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 was 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%, with Q3 2025 slaughter volume reaching 164 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [2]. - The average pig price in Q3 2025 dropped to 13.83 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.15% [2]. - Consumer demand showed fluctuations, with a decline in July and August due to hot weather, but a recovery in September driven by back-to-school and holiday preparations [2]. Group 3: Outlook and Policy Impact - The supply side outlook suggests continued growth in breeding sow capacity from H2 2024 to H1 2025, with expectations of production capacity reduction in the industry [3]. - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aim to control breeding sow inventory and restrict pig sales to curb speculative behavior, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity among leading farming enterprises [3]. - Demand is expected to increase in Q4 due to seasonal factors, but overall growth is anticipated to be limited, with potential further declines in pig prices post-Spring Festival [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The livestock ETF (159865), which has a "pig content" of approximately 60%, is recommended for investment, as it covers the entire pig farming industry chain [4]. - Despite short-term pressures on pig prices and farming profits, the potential for accelerated reduction in breeding sow inventory and improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is highlighted [4]. - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale surpassing 8 billion yuan, reflecting growing investor interest amid industry fluctuations and policy expectations [4].

Core Insights - The livestock ETF (159865) has seen significant inflows, with 103 million shares traded and a net inflow of 84 million shares, indicating strong investor interest in livestock assets [1] - According to Huaxi Securities, the national pig prices have significantly rebounded, and the market is currently in a supply-demand negotiation phase, with large-scale pig enterprises easing their selling pressure and adopting strategies to control supply and raise prices [1] - Despite the industry still being in a loss-making state, there has been a noticeable reduction in losses on a month-on-month basis, and proactive capacity reduction has begun [1] - In the medium to long term, domestic pig price levels are expected to rise, with the main trend in the industry being "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," leading to the gradual elimination of outdated capacities and an increase in market share for high-quality capacities [1] - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and other related sectors to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The swine breeding industry is experiencing increased supply and demand for fat pigs, leading to a rise in pig prices, although breeding continues to incur losses [1] Industry Summary - Continuous supply expansion in the swine breeding industry is noted, with an increase in demand for fat pigs driving the entry of new breeders [1] - Policy guidance combined with supply pressure release may accelerate capacity reduction, as evidenced by a 0.33% month-on-month decrease in the number of breeding sows in September [1] ETF and Index Summary - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, breeding, animal vaccines, and veterinary drugs to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers the entire industry chain of livestock, providing a comprehensive view of market trends and development status in the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a historic moment with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark, indicating a shift in market dynamics where new productive forces are replacing traditional drivers as the main engine of growth [1][3]. Economic Factors - Since the beginning of 2023, there has been a recovery in consumption and a continuous rise in the manufacturing PMI, particularly in high-end equipment and electronic information sectors, which have significantly outperformed traditional industries, providing earnings support for the market [3]. - The liquidity easing signals from recent interest rate cuts and targeted support policies for technological innovation and high-end manufacturing have bolstered investor confidence [3]. - The influx of northbound capital has reached a three-year high, and the fundraising for public funds focused on technology themes has increased, contributing to a robust trading environment with daily transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [3]. Market Structure - Historical analysis shows that previous rallies at the 4000-point level relied heavily on traditional sectors like finance and real estate, while the current rally is primarily driven by the technology sector, which has contributed over half of the index's gains [4]. - The number of technology companies in the Shanghai Composite has increased fourfold since 2015, with their weight rising from less than 5% to 17%, indicating a fundamental shift from resource-driven growth to innovation-driven growth [4]. Future Outlook - The current market environment is supported by expectations of improved US-China relations, with technology leading the market rally, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors [5]. - Short-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing policy benefits and liquidity support, while mid-term expectations suggest a gradual upward movement in market fundamentals [5]. - Investment opportunities are identified in high-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy, alongside defensive plays in undervalued sectors like cyclical and consumer stocks [5]. Investment Opportunities - High-growth opportunities include popular ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and technology, such as the Communication ETF (515880), the ChiNext AI ETF (159388), and the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) [6]. - Defensive opportunities can be found in unique market ETFs like the Coal ETF (515220), Steel ETF (515210), and the still undervalued Aquaculture ETF (159865) [7].