在政策约束与市场机制的双重作用下，国内母猪存栏在调减后或逐步趋于稳定。叠加养殖效率提升、成 本管控强化、以及消费端刚性需求支撑，生猪养殖业在供需格局改善后有望步入盈利周期延长、波动趋 缓的新阶段，整体进入效率驱动盈利的良性发展轨道。养殖板块或已逐步进入配置区间，感兴趣的投资 者可关注养殖ETF（159865）边际变化。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 5月底以来官方持续指导头部30家企业围绕"降母猪、降体重、禁二育"等方向稳价格、限增产，并配合 环保核查和融资等手段落实政策引导。政策旨在通过源头调控稳定市场预期，减少投机性操作， ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 8月26日早盘，养殖ETF（159865）涨超1.5%。 银河证券指出，关于2025年猪价走势，全年均价或相对平稳运行，差异在于优秀猪企完全成本持续 优化，带来养殖利润超预期。此外，2025年以来猪企产能变化节奏、行业二育情况、出栏体重等方面或 受相关影响而带来超预期变化，值得重点关注。数据方面，7月CPI同比持平，农产品贸易累计逆差降 16%。7月我国农产品进口金额186.78亿美元，同比+5.14%，出口金额83.85亿美元，同比+1.59%，贸易 逆差102.93亿美元，同比+8.21%。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及畜禽饲料、 畜禽养殖、动物疫苗及兽药等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧 ...

根据wind数据，养殖ETF（159865）今日盘中净流入1.57亿份，资金抢筹养殖资产。 兴业证券表示，把握行业高质发展红利，布局具备成本优势的养猪板块标的。在猪价低波动、扩张 速度放缓的背景下，成本的不断优化以及产业整合兼并仍能为企业带来盈利增长，具备成本优势的养殖 主体有望实现长期盈利。 相关机构表示，养殖板块或已逐步进入配置区间，可关注养殖ETF（159865）边际变化。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接A（012724），国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联 接C（012725）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the livestock industry is entering a profit cycle starting from Q2 2024, but the average debt reduction rate suggests that the industry still has a long way to go in terms of reducing liabilities [1] - Current market expectations regarding the recovery of hog production capacity may be overly pessimistic, potentially overlooking the positive impacts of declining raw material costs and the potential rebound in macro demand in 2025 [1] - The ongoing profitability period in the hog farming industry may last longer than the market's pessimistic expectations [1] Group 2 - The livestock sector is gradually entering a configuration range, with attention on the marginal changes in the livestock ETF (159865) [2] - For investors without stock accounts, alternative options include the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Farming ETF Link A (012724) and Link C (012725) [2]

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接A（012724），国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接C （012725）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 根据wind数据，养殖ETF（159865）实时盘中净流入3400万份，资金抢筹养殖资产。 山西证券表示，"猪周期"表面上是价格周期，本质上是产能周期。由于生猪行业生物资产的特殊性，从 母猪补栏到育肥猪出栏需要一定的时间周期。从历史实证看，产能回升不必然影响盈利周期的展开演 绎，关键看产能回升的速度。2019年以来这轮周期下行底部末端的整体财务状况是2006年以来压力最大 的。由于受到资金和负债的较大约束，因此弥补亏损和降低负债反而是当前行业进入盈利周期后的主基 调，而不是快速加产能。虽然生猪养殖行业从2024Q2开始进入盈利周期，但是从负债率的平均下降速 度来看，行业整体降负债仍 ...

广发证券指出，原奶价格变动是影响奶牛公平值变动的重要因素，当奶价上行时，奶牛公平值向上 调整，增加奶牛养殖公司表观业绩弹性。当前产能去化有望加速，原奶周期拐点将近。此外，随着前期 肉牛产能去化效应显现，肉牛价格周期回升，亦或增加奶牛养殖公司业绩弹性。在国际财报准则 下，"生物资产公平值减销售成本变动产生的损益"科目涵盖淘汰牛损失、成母牛折旧、奶牛公平值变 动，这些因素共同影响牧业公司表观业绩。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料生产及兽药制造等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧养殖产业链相关上市公司证券的 整体表现。成分股覆盖了畜牧业上下游的主要企业，具有较强的行业代表性。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接A（012724），国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联 接C（012725）。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： n ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the livestock industry is entering a phase of profitability, with a significant inflow of funds into livestock assets, as indicated by the 160 million shares net inflow into the Livestock ETF (159865) [1] - Despite financial pressures since 2019, the industry is more focused on reducing losses and liabilities rather than rapidly expanding capacity, leading to potentially overly pessimistic market expectations regarding the recovery of production capacity [1] - A decline in raw material costs and a potential rebound in macro demand by 2025 are expected to positively impact the industry, suggesting that the sustainability of profitability in the pig farming sector may exceed market expectations [1] Group 2 - The livestock sector may have gradually entered a configuration zone, with attention on the marginal changes in the Livestock ETF (159865) [1] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider the Guotai CSI Animal Husbandry Livestock ETF Connect A (012724) and Guotai CSI Animal Husbandry Livestock ETF Connect C (012725) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry is entering a phase of profitability, with market expectations potentially overly pessimistic regarding capacity recovery and its impact on profit cycles [1] Group 1: Industry Analysis - The livestock ETF (159865) has seen a net inflow of 9 million units, indicating strong capital interest in livestock assets [1] - Since 2019, the industry has faced significant financial pressure, leading to a focus on loss recovery and debt reduction rather than rapid capacity expansion [1] - A decline in raw material costs and a potential macro demand recovery in 2025 are expected to positively influence the industry, suggesting that the sustainability of profits in the pig farming sector may exceed market expectations [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The livestock sector may have entered a configuration phase, with attention on marginal changes in the livestock ETF (159865) [1] - For investors without stock accounts, alternative options include the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Link A (012724) and Link C (012725) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a slight recovery in the breeding capacity of sows in the second quarter, with a total stock of 40.43 million heads by the end of June, reflecting a 0.1% increase compared to the previous month, nearing the levels expected by the end of Q2 2024 [1] - In terms of pig supply, the total output expected by Q2 2025 is 171.43 million heads, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with an average meat yield per head of 82.72 kg, up by 0.46 kg from the previous period [1] - The average price of commercial pigs dropped to 14.57 yuan/kg in June, a decrease of 20.6% year-on-year, while the price of piglets fell by 14.5% year-on-year, leading to a narrowing of average profits for large-scale farms to 7 yuan per head, with smallholders facing a loss of 6 yuan per head [1] Group 2 - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, breeding, vaccines, and veterinary drugs to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The index comprehensively covers the upstream and downstream industries of livestock, effectively representing the overall development status of the sector [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai China Securities Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the breeding sector is experiencing increased capital inflow, with the breeding ETF (159865) seeing a net inflow of 6 million units and over 200 million yuan in the past three days [1] - In July, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising of pigs improved month-on-month, with pig prices rebounding from a low of 24.1 yuan/kg to a mid-August peak of 21.06 yuan/kg, before experiencing a decline [1] - As of July 16, 2025, the pig price was 14.96 yuan/kg, reflecting an 8% decrease compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The profit from self-breeding pigs was reported at 90.89 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was negative at -18.66 yuan per head [1] - The number of breeding sows in China was recorded at 40.42 million heads at the end of May, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The breeding sector is expected to maintain a relatively stable average price throughout 2025, with potential variations due to the optimization of costs by leading pig companies and changes in production capacity and market conditions [1]