| | | | | 国留期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心一段 | 財） 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | 2025/ 127 | | | 地区 | 2025/11/26 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水(修改后) | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 11. 35 | 0. 01 | 0 - 12 | -190 | 270 | | | 湖南 | 11.1628 | -0. 25 | 100 | -540 > | 10 | | | 湖北 | 11.06 | -0.08 | 0 | -480 | +0180 | | | 安徽 | 11. 35 | -0.11 | 200 | -390 | 150 | | | 江西 | 11. 04 | -0.2 | 6100 | -600 | 60 | | | 山西 | 11.04 | -0. 06 | -100 | -400 | 200 | | | 山东 | 11. 37 | -0.14 | 200 | -370 | 12 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be stable with a slight increase in demand, but the support for prices is weak due to the wait - and - see attitude of secondary fattening, so it will mainly fluctuate. The futures market, especially the 2601 contract, is likely to be under dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 13th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 11,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,690 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,860 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous day. The total index positions decreased by 31 to 359,899 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: In the long run, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. In October, the concentrated secondary fattening and holding back of pigs increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October, with the daily average remaining the same. Currently, farmers are mainly selling pigs at a normal pace [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the slaughter rate and volume have increased slightly. Mid - to - late - month pickling and enema may increase slightly. On November 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 162,900 heads, a decrease of 1,200 heads from the previous day, an increase of 2,300 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 3,600 heads month - on - month [7]. 2. Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - fattening pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10]. 3. Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same year - on - year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply stabilizes and demand increases slightly, but the support from second - round fattening is weak. The futures market, specifically the 2601 contract, may show a long - term weakening trend due to increased supply and concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: On November 11, the main 2601 futures contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest was 11,995 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,755 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous day. The total index positions increased by 16,981 lots to 368,545 lots. The national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.87 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October. The demand side shows that second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumption is rising but with insufficient incremental growth. The slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises on November 11 was 162,400 heads, an increase of 100 heads from the previous day, 4,400 heads week - on - week, and 6,600 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - There is no specific content about industry news in the report, only the titles of some related data charts are given. 3. Data Overview - As of October 30, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 258 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/head [13]. - As of October 31, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a monthly increase of 21.2 percentage points, the same as the previous year [13]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a monthly increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [13]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [13]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs in October was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [13]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [13].

Core Viewpoint - The pace of weight reduction in large-scale pig farms has accelerated due to policy changes and rising temperatures, leading to a decrease in the average weight of pigs being sold [1] Industry Summary - The overall market's capacity to absorb supply remains limited, which is suppressing the transaction pace of larger pigs [1] - Farmers still hold expectations for the future market of larger pigs, resulting in a limited overall supply during the week [1] Data Summary - As of the week of June 19, the average weight of external three yuan pigs in China was 123.78 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, reflecting a slight week-on-week decline of 0.15% [1] - This average weight has reached a three-month low, with a year-on-year decline of 0.35% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic pig prices are experiencing limited fluctuations, with large-scale farms not significantly reducing the weight of pigs for sale [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The average weight of pigs sold in the week of May 15 was 124.12 kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week and showing a year-on-year increase of 1.08% [1] - Southern regions still exhibit a price gap for standard pigs, leading farmers to prefer selling heavier pigs [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall trend indicates that the average weight of pigs being sold remains at a high level, reflecting the current market dynamics [1] - Smaller farms are also aligning with this trend, indicating a consistent approach across different scales of operations [1]

Core Insights - The pig market is experiencing a strong fluctuation with an increase in the average weight of pigs being marketed, reaching a seven-month high [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Recent entry of second-batch pigs has contributed to a strong fluctuation in the pig market [1] - Feed costs have seen limited increases, allowing farmers to focus on selling heavier pigs to improve profit margins [1] Group 2: Weight and Pricing Data - As of April 17, the average weight of external three-yuan pigs in China was 124.01 kg, a slight increase of 0.03 kg from the previous week [1] - The week-on-week increase represents a 0.02% rise, marking a seven-month high, and a year-on-year increase of 0.87% [1]