农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 03 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q3 生猪开启去化，饲料动保后 周期经营改善—行业周报》-2025.11.2 《生猪开启去化周期，肉牛延续景气 上行—农林牧渔行业 2026 年投资策 略 》-2025.10.28 《二育进场不改生猪去化大势，肉牛 补栏谨慎景气延续性或更强—行业周 报》-2025.10.26 2025Q3 生猪开启去化，饲料动保后周期经营改善 2025Q3 生猪开启去化周期，饲料动保后周期经营改善 2025Q1-Q3 农业行业营业收入 8727.18 亿元，同比+6.44%，归母净利润 354.77 亿元，同比+10.63%。其中 2025Q3 实现营业收入 3090 亿元，同比+1.2%，归母 净利润 94.5 亿元，同比-58.8%。。2025Q1-Q3 行业销售毛利率 11.79%，同比上 升 0.12pct；销售净利率 4.21%，同比上升 0.21pct；净资产收益率 6.75% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a downward trend in pig prices, leading to a de-stocking cycle in pig farming. The profitability of the agriculture sector has turned negative due to a significant drop in pig prices, with Q3 2025 profits down by 58.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The overall revenue for the agriculture sector in Q1-Q3 2025 reached 872.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.44%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.477 billion yuan, up 10.63% year-on-year [5][14] - The average price of pigs in Q3 2025 was 13.81 yuan/kg, down 28.89% year-on-year, with the lowest price of 10.84 yuan/kg recorded on October 13, 2025 [5][14] Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Observations - The agriculture sector's profit has decreased significantly due to unexpected declines in pig prices, leading to a negative profit margin for the sector [5][14] - The sales gross margin for the industry in Q1-Q3 2025 was 11.79%, a slight increase of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.21%, up 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] Profitability and Cost Management - The industry is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 at 6.64%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] - In Q3 2025, the sales gross margin fell to 10.71%, a decrease of 4.68 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin dropped to 3.13%, down 4.71 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] Market Performance - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.88 percentage points during the week of October 27-31, 2025, with the agriculture index rising by 1.99% [26][28] - Key stocks such as Zhongxing Junye, Weilan Biotechnology, and Luoniushan led the gains in the agriculture sector, with increases of 19.60%, 13.23%, and 9.08% respectively [26][31] Price Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, the average price of pigs was 12.49 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.67 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 18.13 yuan/kg, up 0.47 yuan/kg [37][38] - The average price of beef was 66.30 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week [38]