Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the rebound in pig prices may be nearing its end, with supply pressure leading to a potential bottoming out of prices. As of November 9, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 11.90 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.80 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][12] - The report highlights that the entry of second-stage breeding is nearing its end, with high existing stock levels leading to price pressure ahead of the New Year. The proportion of second-stage breeding in actual sales was 2.12% from October 20-31, 2025, up 0.03 percentage points month-on-month and 0.20 percentage points year-on-year [4][19] - The report suggests that the ongoing losses in pig farming may accelerate the culling of sows, driven by multiple factors including policy adjustments and disease outbreaks. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][27] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the average weight of pigs being sold has increased to 128.30 kg per head, with a week-on-week increase of 0.40 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.23 kg. The price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has narrowed, indicating an increase in fat pig supply [3][12] - The report also mentions that the breeding stock of sows has decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of October 2025, with the price of 7 kg piglets rebounding to 198 yuan/head due to rising pig prices [4][24] Weekly Market Performance - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 0.29 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08% and the agricultural index rising by 0.79% [5][30] - The report highlights that the fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with stocks like Jinxinnong, Yuegui, and Luoniushan showing significant increases [5][30] Price Tracking - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 0.80 yuan/kg [5][38] - The report also tracks the prices of other agricultural products, noting increases in beef, shrimp, corn futures, and soybean meal futures [5][39][48] Key News - The report mentions that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 10.1% month-on-month increase in the price of live pigs in late October 2025 [5][36] - It also notes that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released guidelines for the construction of a smart agriculture standard system [5][37] Feed Production - According to the China Feed Industry Association, the total industrial feed production in September 2025 was 30.36 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [5][57] Import Data - In September 2025, pork imports totaled 80,000 tons, down 22.5% year-on-year, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 75.2% year-on-year [5][54][55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a downward trend in pig prices, leading to a de-stocking cycle in pig farming. The profitability of the agriculture sector has turned negative due to a significant drop in pig prices, with Q3 2025 profits down by 58.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The overall revenue for the agriculture sector in Q1-Q3 2025 reached 872.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.44%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.477 billion yuan, up 10.63% year-on-year [5][14] - The average price of pigs in Q3 2025 was 13.81 yuan/kg, down 28.89% year-on-year, with the lowest price of 10.84 yuan/kg recorded on October 13, 2025 [5][14] Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Observations - The agriculture sector's profit has decreased significantly due to unexpected declines in pig prices, leading to a negative profit margin for the sector [5][14] - The sales gross margin for the industry in Q1-Q3 2025 was 11.79%, a slight increase of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.21%, up 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] Profitability and Cost Management - The industry is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 at 6.64%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] - In Q3 2025, the sales gross margin fell to 10.71%, a decrease of 4.68 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin dropped to 3.13%, down 4.71 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] Market Performance - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.88 percentage points during the week of October 27-31, 2025, with the agriculture index rising by 1.99% [26][28] - Key stocks such as Zhongxing Junye, Weilan Biotechnology, and Luoniushan led the gains in the agriculture sector, with increases of 19.60%, 13.23%, and 9.08% respectively [26][31] Price Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, the average price of pigs was 12.49 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.67 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 18.13 yuan/kg, up 0.47 yuan/kg [37][38] - The average price of beef was 66.30 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week [38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price has bottomed out and is rebounding, but the overall trend of breeding stock reduction remains unchanged. The short-term increase in breeding stock does not alter the long-term reduction trend [3][12] - The beef price continues to rise, but there is cautious replenishment in the industry due to differing expectations. The cattle inventory decreased in Q3 2025 [4][28] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig farming losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and feed sectors [5][31][34] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The proportion of breeding stock in actual sales increased to 2.09%, with a significant rise in breeding barn utilization rate to 44.8% [17][12] - As of October 24, 2025, the average price of pigs in China was 11.81 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.63 CNY/kg, but a year-on-year decrease of 5.74% [12][3] Weekly Perspective - The report notes that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The report recommends companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others [5][31] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended companies include Haida Group and New Hope [31] Market Performance (October 20-24) - The agriculture sector underperformed the market by 4.24 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.88% while the agriculture index fell by 1.36% [35][37] - The report highlights that the fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors [35] Price Tracking (October 20-24) - The average price of pigs was 11.82 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.65 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets was 17.66 CNY/kg, down by 0.33 CNY/kg [43][44] - The average wholesale price of beef was 66.21 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 0.21 CNY/kg [48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that pig prices are stabilizing at low levels, with a continued reduction in breeding stock. As of October 17, 2025, the national average price for live pigs is 11.18 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.19 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 6.52% [3][12] - The report highlights that the price of piglets has further declined, which may accelerate the culling of sows. The price for 7kg piglets has dropped to 165 yuan/head, below the industry average cost of 300 yuan/head, leading to potential losses that could hasten the elimination of sows [4][19] - The report notes that the domestic pet market is experiencing a rise in local brands, particularly during the Double Eleven pre-sale event, where the top eight brands in sales are all domestic [5][22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is in a low-level fluctuation, with breeding stock reduction continuing. The proportion of breeding stock in actual sales is 1.02%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points but a year-on-year decrease of 5.07 percentage points. The utilization rate of breeding facilities is 32%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous period and down 15.9 percentage points year-on-year [12][13] Weekly Perspective - The report suggests that losses in pig farming may accelerate the reduction of breeding stock. The price of live pigs continues to decline, reaching a new low for the year, and the losses in pig farming are deepening. The report recommends stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [29][30] Market Performance (October 13-17) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.73 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the agricultural index down 2.20%. Notable stock performances include Shenyin Wanguo Biological (+10.33%) and others [32][37] Price Tracking (October 13-17) - The average price for live pigs is 11.17 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 17.99 yuan/kg, down 0.73 yuan/kg. The average price for white strip meat is 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg [6][47] Key News (October 13-17) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to strengthen the inspection and slaughtering of pigs, emphasizing the importance of quality control in pork products [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, driven by both fundamental and policy factors. The price of live pigs is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to strong support from previous breeding sow reductions and winter piglet losses [29][32] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. The average price of live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The average price of beef is 66.27 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 2.10% and a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [23] Weekly Market Performance (September 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 2.18 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% and the agricultural index falling by 1.97% [34][36] - Leading stocks include ST Jinggu (+15.68%), Huaying Agriculture (+5.76%), and Biological Shares (+3.78%) [34][40] Price Tracking (September 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.87% [46] - The average price of beef is 65.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 yuan/kg [54] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [20][29] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope [29] - In the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for the pig industry continues to strengthen due to dual catalysts from policies and diseases, with a recommendation for long-term positioning despite current price lows [3][5] - The pet food export volume continues to grow year-on-year, indicating a sustained positive trend in the pet food market [4][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is running at a low level, with the national average price at 12.71 yuan/kg as of September 21, 2025, down 0.50 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 5.73 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][13] - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.45 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week and year-on-year [3][13] - The pig industry is expected to see a strong execution of policies aimed at capacity reduction, which will enhance the expectations for substantial capacity reduction [3][13] Weekly Viewpoint - The investment logic for the pig industry is marginally improving, with a recommendation for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][24] - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [5][25] - The pet food sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][28] Market Performance (September 15-19) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.40 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 2.70% [6][29] - Leading stocks included Shennong Biotechnology (+9.36%), Xuelong Biotechnology (+7.64%), and Tianma Technology (+3.90%) [6][29] Price Tracking (September 15-19) - The average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week [7][37] - The average price of piglets was 22.38 yuan/kg, down 1.57 yuan/kg week-on-week [7][37] - The average price of beef was 65.60 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [44][37] Key News (September 15-19) - Notification regarding the central reserve frozen pork storage auction scheduled for September 23, 2025, with 15,000 tons available for auction [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector's profit growth in H1 2025 is driven by the recovery of the breeding chain, with a revenue of 569.91 billion yuan, up 9.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.79 billion yuan, up 193.46% year-on-year [12][19] - The pig price is expected to rise in H2 2025, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, improving the investment logic for pig farming [21] - The pet food sector continues to thrive, with domestic brands gaining market share due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The recovery of the breeding chain has driven significant profit growth in the agricultural sector for H1 2025, with a notable increase in net profit and revenue [12][19] - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 was 14.81 yuan/kg, down 4.00% year-on-year, but profitability improved due to lower breeding costs and increased output from leading companies [12][19] Weekly Viewpoint - The investment logic for pig farming is improving, with expected price increases in H2 2025 due to supply and demand dynamics [21] - The feed sector benefits from strong domestic and overseas demand, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group and New Hope [21] - The pet food market is projected to grow significantly, with domestic brands strengthening their position [22] Market Performance (8.25-8.29) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.18 percentage points, with a 2.02% increase in the agricultural index compared to a 0.84% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [24][27] - Leading stocks included Aonong Biological (+22.67%), Yuanfei Pet (+15.71%), and Xiaoming Co. (+10.86%) [24][29] Price Tracking (8.25-8.29) - The average price of pigs was 13.66 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week, while the average price of beef increased to 65.05 yuan/kg [31][39] - The price of corn futures rose by 1.39% to 2187.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures fell by 2.04% to 2496.00 yuan/ton [46] Key News (8.25-8.29) - The Ministry of Agriculture held a meeting to promote strict variety management, emphasizing the importance of new varieties and resource management [30] - The total output of aquatic products from January to July 2025 increased by 4.37% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the aquaculture sector [30] Subsector Financial Data - In H1 2025, the breeding, feed, poultry, and animal health sectors saw significant year-on-year profit growth, with breeding profits increasing by 668.38% [20][19] - The pet food sector also experienced a profit increase of 17.92% year-on-year, reflecting strong market demand [20][19]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported that the average pig-to-grain price ratio has fallen below 6:1, prompting the central government to initiate frozen pork reserve collection [2][4] - The China National Storage Network announced plans to collect 10,000 tons of pork on August 25 and 19,000 tons from August 26 to 29, which is expected to boost market sentiment and support a rebound in pork prices [2][4] - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 13.73 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 6.51 yuan/kg [1][5] Group 2 - In July 2025, China's pet food export value reached $130 million, marking a month-on-month increase of 13.35% despite a year-on-year decline of 3.85% [3] - The 27th Asia Pet Expo held from August 20-24 showcased continued domestic pet consumption growth, with significant sales reported by companies like Petty Holdings [3][4] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, reinforcing the logic of domestic brand growth [4] Group 3 - The investment logic for the pig industry is improving due to dual drivers from fundamental and policy aspects, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [4] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, supported by strong overseas demand, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [4] - The pet sector's growth is further supported by domestic consumption upgrades, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the pig price is expected to gradually rise due to government storage initiatives, with the average pig price as of August 22, 2025, being 13.73 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 6.51% [3][13] - The pet food export market is experiencing high growth, with July 2025 exports amounting to 130 million USD, a month-on-month increase of 13.35% [4][25] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the pig farming sector, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [5][26] Weekly Observations - The report notes that the storage of frozen pork by the government is set to begin on August 25, 2025, with a total of 10,000 tons to be stored [38] - The average pig-to-grain price ratio has fallen below 6:1, prompting government intervention to stabilize the market [13][41] - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 0.23 percentage points during the week of August 18-22, 2025, with a 3.72% increase [30][33] Price Tracking - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 13.73 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week [43][44] - The average price of piglets was 27.78 yuan/kg, down 1.09 yuan/kg week-on-week [43][44] - The report also tracks the prices of other agricultural products, noting fluctuations in beef, chicken, and feed prices [42][54] Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others in the pig farming sector, as well as companies in the feed sector like Haida Group and New Hope [5][26][28] - In the pet food sector, companies such as Guibao Pet and Petty are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to the rising domestic market [5][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that a new round of price increases for pigs may gradually begin, with the African swine fever vaccine opening growth opportunities for the animal health sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with recommendations for specific companies [5][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - As of August 15, 2025, the national average price of live pigs is 13.73 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [4][13] - The price premium for 150kg fat pigs over 120kg standard pigs is 0.28 CNY/kg, indicating a tightening supply [4][13] Weekly Market Performance (August 11-15) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.84 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 0.14% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% [6][35] - Key stocks that led the gains include COFCO Sugar (+41.04%), Shunli Biological (+13.97%), and Xiaoming Co. (+8.86%) [6][35] Price Tracking (August 11-15) - The average price of live pigs on August 15 is 13.76 CNY/kg, a slight increase from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of piglets is 28.87 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 5.03% from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [6][51] Key News (August 11-15) - The central government allocated 1.146 billion CNY for agricultural disaster relief, supporting major grain-producing provinces [6][41]