农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《猪价新一轮上行或逐步开启，非瘟 疫苗打开动保板块成长空间—行业周 报》-2025.8.17 《8 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉 米、水稻产量，下调大豆、小麦产量 —行业点评报告》-2025.8.15 《出猪节奏导致 7 月猪价涨幅不及预 期，后市猪价不悲观—行业点评报 告》-2025.8.14 10 收储助推猪价见底回升，宠物食品出口及国内消费 高景气延续 饲料板块国内市场受益禽畜后周期，海外强劲需求支撑价格。推荐：海大集 团、新希望等。 消费升级叠加关税壁垒，宠物板块国货崛起逻辑持续强化。推荐：乖宝宠物、 中宠股份、佩蒂股份。 本周市场表现（8.18-8.22）:农业跑赢大盘 0.23 个百分点 ——行业周报 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector is experiencing a marginal improvement in investment logic for live pigs, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, with expectations of a price increase in the second half of 2025 [26] - The pet sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands, supported by consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with a projected market size growth of over 10% annually from 2025 to 2027 [28][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The national pig price is under pressure due to group weight reduction and increased market supply, with an average price of 14.02 CNY/kg as of August 3, 2025, down 0.57% from the previous week [5][14] - The average weight of pigs sold has decreased to 127.98 kg, reflecting a downward trend due to weight reduction policies and slow growth in high temperatures [16] Weekly Insights - The investment logic for live pigs is improving, with expectations of price support in the second half of 2025 due to a combination of fundamental and policy factors [26] - The feed sector is benefiting from a recovery in domestic livestock and poultry production, with a total feed output expected to reach 1.4 trillion CNY in 2023 [26] Market Performance - The agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 2.03 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 2.97% during the week [30][31] - The animal health sector showed the highest gains, with stocks like Shenlian Biological and Huisheng Biological leading the performance [30] Price Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the average price for live pigs was 14.33 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 1.27% from the previous week [42] - The average price for corn was 2,296 CNY/ton, down 0.78% week-on-week, while soybean meal was priced at 3,004 CNY/ton, down 0.69% [60] Key News - The overall situation in China's livestock industry is stable and improving, with a reported production increase of 2.8% in meat output during the first half of 2025 [38] - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, indicating a potential reduction in pig supply, which may stabilize prices [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector's public fund heavy holdings increased in Q2 2025, driven by US-China tariff disruptions, fundamental improvements, and policy catalysts [4][12] - The total market capitalization of the agricultural sector reached 1,320.8 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.80%, accounting for 1.74% of the A-share market [12][16] - The investment logic for the pig farming sector is improving, with expectations of a price increase in the second half of 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, the public fund heavy holdings in the agricultural sector accounted for 0.47% of the total public stock investment, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.07 percentage points [12][14] - The feed and breeding sub-sectors saw the most significant increase in public fund holdings, while other sub-sectors remained relatively stable [15] Individual Stocks - Leading companies in the feed and breeding sectors, such as Haida Group and Muyuan Foods, saw significant increases in their public fund holdings, with Haida Group's holdings rising by 51% to 12.44 billion [17][19] - The top public fund holdings in the agricultural sector for Q2 2025 were Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs, with respective holdings of 12.44 billion, 6.64 billion, and 6.20 billion [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and other companies in the pig farming sector due to improving investment logic [20] - The feed sector is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand, with recommendations for Haida Group and New Hope [20] - The pet sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations for Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with expectations of rising prices in the second half of 2025 [25] - The domestic pet consumption market remains stable, but trade tensions have put pressure on exports, with a notable decline in sales and export figures [20][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Short-term supply increases have led to a decline in pig prices, but after market adjustments, prices may rise further [4][13] - As of July 18, the average price of live pigs was 14.19 yuan/kg, down 3.34% from the previous week [13][14] Weekly Market Performance - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.83 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% [30][32] - The animal health sector showed the highest gains among sub-sectors [30] Price Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the price of piglets increased slightly to 31.96 yuan/kg [41] - The price of corn decreased to 2473 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices rose to 2928 yuan/ton [15][56] Key News - As of the end of Q2 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, with overall meat production showing a slight increase [38] - The report indicates a stable trend in domestic pet food sales, with a total of 31.87 billion yuan in sales for June, down 7.98% year-on-year [20][23] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, while in the feed sector, Hai Da Group and New Hope Liuhe are highlighted [25][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply contraction has reached a point where the average price of live pigs is expected to rise, with the national average price at 14.74 yuan/kg as of June 29, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.45 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 3.17% [4][13] - The profit of pig farming enterprises is expected to maintain high growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by increased output, heavier average weights, and reduced costs [5][23] - The investment logic for the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive allocation strategy [6][30] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q2 2025, the average price of live pigs is projected at 14.55 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 11.22%, while the cost of pig farming has decreased to 13.38 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 2.92% [5][23] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.99 kg/head, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.07% in the total output of 12 major listed pig companies [5][23] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index underperformed the broader market by 1.11 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and the agricultural index increasing by 0.80% [34][36] - The aquaculture sector led the gains, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Biological Shares (+9.83%) and Spring Snow Food (+9.82%) [34][38] Price Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, the national average price for live pigs was 14.72 yuan/kg, up 0.50 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price for piglets was 31.6 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg [41][44] - The feed price ratio for pigs was recorded at 4.38:1, indicating the profitability dynamics in the sector [41] Recommendations - The report recommends actively allocating investments in leading pig companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as well as in the feed sector benefiting from strong overseas demand [6][30]