Investment Rating - The report indicates a low overall allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with a heavy stock allocation ratio of 0.78% as of Q3 2025, which is below the standard allocation ratio and historical average [2][11][19] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant reduction in heavy stock allocations in the feed and breeding sectors, with breeding at 0.31% and feed at 0.40% for Q3 2025, both showing a decline compared to previous quarters [12][19] - Major companies such as Haida Group and Muyuan Foods have reduced their allocations, indicating a trend of decreased investment in leading stocks within the sector [3][14] - The report suggests that the breeding sector is entering a phase of high-quality development, recommending investments in low-cost leading companies and growth-oriented stocks [4][19] Summary by Sections Heavy Stock Allocation Analysis - As of the end of Q3 2025, the heavy stock allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is 0.78%, down 0.58 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [11][12] - The heavy stock allocation in the breeding industry is 0.31%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, while the feed industry allocation is 0.40%, down 0.45 percentage points [12][14] Company-Specific Allocation Changes - Among the top 15 heavy stocks, most companies have reduced their allocations, with Haida Group and Muyuan Foods decreasing by 0.34 percentage points and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [3][14] - The top five stocks with increased heavy stock allocation include Tiankang Biological (+2.42%) and Hainan Rubber (+1.41%), while the top five with decreased allocations include Zhongchong Pet (-3.21%) and Juxing Agriculture (-3.14%) [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading stocks in the breeding sector such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as seasonal rebounds in chicken prices [4][19] - For breeding support (feed and animal health), it suggests monitoring leading companies like Haida Group and BANGJI Technology for potential restructuring opportunities [4][19] - The planting sector shows stable profitability, with recommendations to pay attention to companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5][51]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has shown a slight outperformance against the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.45% from October 9 to October 16, 2025, which is 0.03 percentage points better than the index [5][12]. - The report highlights that the breeding capacity of sows is expected to continue to decrease, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million as of the end of August 2025, a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month [5][24]. - The report emphasizes the potential investment opportunities in leading companies in pig farming due to the expected capacity reduction and the marginal improvement in profitability for leading chicken farming companies [5][51]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.45% from October 9 to October 16, 2025, outperforming the index by approximately 0.03 percentage points [12]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only the breeding and feed sectors showing negative returns of 1.27% and 1.53%, respectively [13]. - Over half of the stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with approximately 57% of stocks showing gains [14]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.85 times, slightly down from before the National Day holiday, indicating a relative low valuation historically [21]. Key Industry Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-yuan pigs decreased from 11.87 yuan/kg to 11.17 yuan/kg between October 3 and October 16, 2025 [24]. - **Breeding Capacity**: The number of breeding sows was 40.38 million, slightly above the normal holding capacity of 39 million, indicating potential for further capacity reduction [24]. - **Costs**: The spot price of corn was 2271.57 yuan/ton, showing a recent decline, while soybean meal prices increased to 3010 yuan/ton [26]. - **Profitability**: The profit from self-bred pigs was -244.7 yuan per head, and from purchased piglets was -375.29 yuan per head, indicating a continued decline in profitability [29]. Industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in pig farming due to the expected capacity reduction and potential low-entry opportunities [51]. - In chicken farming, attention is drawn to the marginal improvement in profitability for leading companies [51]. - The report also highlights opportunities in the feed sector due to increasing market concentration and overseas expansion [51]. - In the animal health sector, companies with strong R&D capabilities are recommended for attention [51]. Company-Specific Insights - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Shengnong Development (002299) among others, due to their strong market positions and growth potential [51][53].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The agriculture sector shows defensive value amid renewed US-China tariff disturbances, with the sector currently at a relatively low level, suggesting improved investment logic and a recommendation for increased allocation [5][14] - The pig farming sector is experiencing losses, with both pigs and piglets facing declining prices, leading to accelerated liquidation. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.24 yuan/kg, marking a year-low [15][34] - The beef and poultry sectors benefit from improved domestic demand and tariff disturbances, with beef prices at 66.04 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.41% and a year-on-year increase of 8.32% [22][19] - The seed and planting sector is positively impacted by the escalation of US-China agricultural product tariffs and domestic food security needs, with corn prices rising to 2304 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.54% since the beginning of the year [29][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The agriculture sector's defensive value is highlighted due to renewed US-China tariff disturbances, with the sector benefiting from tariff countermeasures and food security logic [5][14] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing significant losses, with prices continuing to decline, suggesting a potential golden opportunity for investment as liquidation accelerates [34][15] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others in the pig farming sector [34] Market Performance (10.6-10.10) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 0.67 percentage points, with notable gains in stocks like Aonong Biological and Xuelong Biological [38][45] Price Tracking (10.6-10.10) - The average price of pigs was reported at 11.18 yuan/kg, down 1.08 yuan from the previous week, while the price of piglets was 18.72 yuan/kg, down 1.65 yuan [48][50] - The average price of yellow feathered chickens reached 13.80 yuan/kg, marking a new high for 2025 [22][49] Key News (10.6-10.10) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice on promoting agricultural product consumption, aiming to enhance supply and market channels [46]

Group 1 - Leading domestic non-woven fabric manufacturer, producing hot air non-woven fabrics for diapers and other applications [2] - Global leader in color woven fabric, focusing on mid-to-high-end fashion brands, with a turnaround in net profit in the first half of the year [2] - Major player in the dairy product sector in Gansu and Qinghai, expecting significant reduction in losses in the first half of the year [2] Group 2 - Company specializes in the wool industry, producing fine cashmere and cashmere blended products for clothing [2] - Main business includes feed, pig farming, food, and trade, with a subsidiary focused on prepared food [2] - Subsidiary has become a leading MCN organization with over 110 signed influencers and a total fan base exceeding 368 million [2] Group 3 - Company focuses on pet hygiene products and health care items [2] - Major products include shampoos, conditioners, body washes, and skincare products [2] - Largest producer of walnut milk in China, with significant investment in Yangtze Storage Technology [2] Group 4 - Company is a leader in the coal chemical industry in Heilongjiang and a prominent player in the graphene sector [3] - Subsidiary has developed transparent conductive film technology for graphene applications [3] - Company is involved in the power automation sector, focusing on EPC contracting in wind power [3] Group 5 - Company specializes in high-end sanitary ware and has expanded manufacturing bases in Vietnam [4] - Plans to transition from real estate development to renewable energy generation [4] - Company is a leading developer in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [4] Group 6 - Company is a major player in the cement industry in North China, with a significant market share [5] - Engaged in the production and sales of cement, primarily in Hubei province [5] - Company has developed products for the photolithography market, aiming to collaborate with ASML [5] Group 7 - Company is a comprehensive producer of various non-ferrous metals, with an annual silver production capacity of 500 tons [7] - Plans to acquire stakes in multiple companies, with a total estimated transaction value of 2.728 billion [7] - Company expects a substantial increase in net profit due to improved operational performance [7] Group 8 - Leading producer of phosphoric acid, essential for solid-state battery production [8] - Plans to invest in and gain control of a technology company specializing in semiconductor packaging [8] - Company is a supplier of drilling equipment for offshore oil and gas energy extraction [8]

Core Insights - Chinese companies are significantly contributing to the agricultural development in Egypt, providing high-quality feed, advanced technology, and job opportunities, which fosters hope for local communities [1][5]. Group 1: Training and Employment - A training program initiated by the Chinese Embassy in Egypt and New Hope Liuhe aims to empower women in rural areas by providing them with skills for poultry farming, thereby aiding poverty alleviation [2][3]. - The program has successfully trained women, enabling them to generate income independently, which has improved their living standards [2][3]. - New Hope Liuhe has created over 1,200 direct jobs in Egypt, with a high localization rate, where more than half of the management staff are Egyptians [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Impact - Since entering Egypt in 2011, New Hope has established four feed factories and one breeding company, with plans to sell 700,000 tons of feed and 25 million chicks in 2024 [3][4]. - The introduction of biological feed and scientific management techniques has improved the feed-to-meat ratio from 1.8 to as low as 1.4, and increased poultry survival rates to 95% [3][4]. - The local poultry farmers have scaled their operations significantly, with some increasing their flock size from 3,000 to hundreds of thousands, leading to enhanced profitability [4][5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Contributions - The presence of Chinese companies like New Hope is revitalizing Egypt's agricultural sector, injecting vitality into agricultural modernization and creating wealth and value [5]. - Local media have recognized the positive impact of Chinese investments on the confidence of Egyptian farmers and the overall agricultural productivity [4][5]. - The Egyptian Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade has expressed support for such investments, highlighting their role in creating economic opportunities [4].

Core Insights - The prices of chicken eggs, chicken meat, beef, mutton, and fresh milk have increased week-on-week, while prices for pork products, corn, soybean meal, and feed for fattening pigs have decreased [1] Price Trends Pork Products - The average price of piglets is 29.07 yuan/kg, down 3.2% week-on-week and down 26.2% year-on-year - The average price of live pigs is 13.52 yuan/kg, down 2.4% week-on-week and down 28.6% year-on-year - The average price of pork is 24.29 yuan/kg, down 0.9% week-on-week and down 21.2% year-on-year [2] Poultry Products - The average price of chicken eggs is 9.34 yuan/kg, up 1.2% week-on-week but down 19.7% year-on-year - The average price of chicken meat is 22.58 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week but down 5.2% year-on-year - The average price of broiler chicks is 3.74 yuan each, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.9% year-on-year [3] Beef and Mutton Products - The average price of beef is 71.11 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week and up 4.6% year-on-year - The average price of mutton is 69.79 yuan/kg, up 0.4% week-on-week but down 0.6% year-on-year [4] Fresh Milk - The average price of fresh milk is 3.04 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year [5] Feed Prices - The average price of corn is 2.48 yuan/kg, down 0.4% week-on-week but up 0.4% year-on-year - The average price of soybean meal is 3.28 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 3.5% year-on-year - The average price of feed for fattening pigs is 3.38 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 1.7% year-on-year [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for the pig industry continues to strengthen due to dual catalysts from policies and diseases, with a recommendation for long-term positioning despite current price lows [3][5] - The pet food export volume continues to grow year-on-year, indicating a sustained positive trend in the pet food market [4][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is running at a low level, with the national average price at 12.71 yuan/kg as of September 21, 2025, down 0.50 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 5.73 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][13] - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.45 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week and year-on-year [3][13] - The pig industry is expected to see a strong execution of policies aimed at capacity reduction, which will enhance the expectations for substantial capacity reduction [3][13] Weekly Viewpoint - The investment logic for the pig industry is marginally improving, with a recommendation for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][24] - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [5][25] - The pet food sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][28] Market Performance (September 15-19) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.40 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 2.70% [6][29] - Leading stocks included Shennong Biotechnology (+9.36%), Xuelong Biotechnology (+7.64%), and Tianma Technology (+3.90%) [6][29] Price Tracking (September 15-19) - The average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week [7][37] - The average price of piglets was 22.38 yuan/kg, down 1.57 yuan/kg week-on-week [7][37] - The average price of beef was 65.60 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [44][37] Key News (September 15-19) - Notification regarding the central reserve frozen pork storage auction scheduled for September 23, 2025, with 15,000 tons available for auction [35]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector's expected differences, highlighting the current low prices and the potential for capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [11][12] - The dairy and beef sectors are seen as entering a new cycle, with opportunities arising from the recovery of raw milk prices and the initiation of a beef super cycle [13] - The pet industry is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic brands rising and export trends improving, indicating a robust pet economy [14] - The poultry sector faces challenges with breeding imports and demand fluctuations, suggesting a focus on self-breeding opportunities [16][19] - The planting sector is shifting towards biological breeding strategies to ensure food security, with a focus on increasing yields through improved seed technology [21] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to market share growth and consistent performance, particularly in companies like Haida Group [22] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of September 6, the average price of pigs is 13.87 CNY/kg, up 0.73% from the previous week, while the price of piglets is at a new low of 324 CNY/head [11] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs highlighted for their market capitalization [12] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may be starting, with a focus on companies that can leverage mother cow resources [13] Pet Sector - The domestic pet food market is growing, with significant sales increases noted, and companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are recommended for investment [14] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, with a recommendation to focus on self-breeding opportunities [16][17] - The yellow chicken market is expected to see price improvements due to demand increases in the second half of the year [19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving higher yields through biological breeding, with key recommendations for seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [21] Feed Sector - Haida Group is recommended for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed industry, with expectations of a market recovery [22]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed price trends for various livestock and feed products, with some prices increasing while others are declining [1][2]. Livestock Prices - The average price of piglets in China is 32.68 yuan/kg, down 1.7% week-on-week and down 25.7% year-on-year [1] - The national average price for pigs is 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6% week-on-week and 30.1% year-on-year [1] - The average price of pork is 24.81 yuan/kg, down 0.5% week-on-week and down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - The average price of beef is 70.41 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and up 3.2% year-on-year [2] - The average price of lamb is 69.02 yuan/kg, up 0.1% week-on-week but down 1.7% year-on-year [2] Poultry Prices - The average price of eggs is 8.87 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week but down 22.8% year-on-year [1] - The average price of chicken is 22.45 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and down 5.9% year-on-year [1] - The average price of broiler chicks is 3.47 yuan each, up 1.5% week-on-week but down 2.5% year-on-year [1] - The average price of layer chicks is 3.76 yuan each, unchanged week-on-week and down 2.3% year-on-year [1] Feed Prices - The average price of corn is 2.49 yuan/kg, down 0.4% week-on-week and down 1.6% year-on-year [2] - The average price of soybean meal is 3.31 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 1.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of fattening pig feed is 3.40 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week but down 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The average price of broiler feed is 3.51 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 2.2% year-on-year [2] - The average price of layer feed is 3.23 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 2.1% year-on-year [2]

Core Insights - Thailand's government has reached a new tariff agreement with the United States, which implements zero tariffs on over 90% of U.S. products while establishing protective measures for certain sensitive agricultural products [1] Group 1: Tariff Agreement Details - The agreement includes a gradual tariff reduction on U.S. pork, with import quantity limits set to allow U.S. pork to account for less than 1% of domestic consumption [1] - U.S. pork exports must be free of ractopamine, a substance banned in Thailand, to comply with local regulations [1] Group 2: Impact on Local Industry - The measures aim to provide space for U.S. companies to test the market while allowing local producers, such as CP Group and Betagro, time to adjust and mitigate impacts [1] - For corn, Thailand will prioritize local corn purchases at fixed prices for domestic feed mills before allowing quota imports of U.S. corn [1] - The Thai Feed Mill Association estimates that Thailand could import up to $2.8 billion worth of U.S. corn, soybean meal, and distiller's grains annually [1]