1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Methanol: Neutral with a slightly bullish bias [3] - Thermal Coal: Neutral [3] - Domestic Supply: Bearish [3] - Import: Bullish [3] - Downstream Demand: Bullish [3] - Upstream Profit: Bearish [3] - MTO Profit: Bullish [3] - Inventory: Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has no new maintenance units this week, and some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance. Overseas device operating rates are low, and short - term imports are expected to remain low. - Traditional downstream demand is gradually recovering after the Spring Festival, while MTO demand is weak. There are expectations of MTO device restarts. - Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and methanol is in a high - level shock. The port inventory is expected to decline, and methanol is expected to be slightly stronger, with limited downside space [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Supply - **Domestic Supply**: As of the week ending March 12, the national methanol device operating rate was 76.3%, with coal - based methanol at 84.5%, coke - oven gas - based at 55.4%, and natural gas - based at 37.1%. The domestic operating rate has declined, and short - term device changes are small, with some devices having short - stop plans. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the domestic spring maintenance [9][13]. - **Overseas Supply**: Iranian methanol devices have a low operating rate. Some Iranian devices restarted last weekend, but most are still shut down. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping situation. Devices in other countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States also have some shutdowns or low - load operations [18][19]. Raw Materials - **Coal Price**: Coal prices have recently weakened. Port coal inventories remain high, daily consumption has declined, and the support during the peak season has weakened. Short - term coal prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. - **Methanol Profit**: With the weak operation of coal prices and the rebound of domestic methanol prices, the profits of coal - based methanol devices have strengthened significantly. The profits of natural gas - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol devices have also improved. As of March 10, the profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol was 99 yuan/ton, that of southwest natural gas - based was 100 yuan/ton, and that of Hebei coke - oven gas - based was 380 yuan/ton [32]. Demand - **MTO Demand**: As of March 12, the MTO operating rate was 78.1%, and the operating rate of externally purchased methanol - to - olefins devices was 70.3%, remaining stable. Two coastal MTO devices have not restarted. The profit of East China MTO devices has recently rebounded significantly. There are expectations of MTO device restarts, and attention should be paid to the implementation [43][44]. - **Traditional Downstream Demand**: Traditional downstream demand continued to recover last week, especially the operating rates of formaldehyde and MTBE. Although the profits of traditional downstream industries have been compressed with the rebound of methanol prices, the current profits are relatively higher than last year. Traditional downstream procurement sentiment is slightly better, and the procurement volume is relatively stable. However, inland orders have declined slightly [51][56][66]. Inventory - **Port and Inland Inventory**: Last week, the port inventory was 129.3 million tons, and the port's tradable inventory was 63.6 million tons. Both ports and the inland area have seen inventory declines. With the reduction in imports, the port inventory is still expected to decline, and the inland area is also expected to continue to reduce inventory as traditional demand recovers [76]. - **Downstream Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventories of MTO sample enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers have significantly decreased. Demand is gradually recovering, but high - pressure suppresses the replenishment willingness, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs [83]. Market Structure - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The spot basis has recently remained stable, restricted by high inventories. However, with the expectation of reduced imports and declining port inventories, the basis is expected to strengthen. The 5 - 9 spread has fallen after a significant increase and is currently in a high - level shock. It is advisable to conduct positive spreads on dips [94]. - **PP/L - 3MA Spread**: The PP/L - 3MA spread has recently rebounded. The olefin end is relatively strong due to the rebound of crude oil prices and the reduction in petrochemical production, while methanol is relatively weak due to high - inventory pressure. The spread is expected to continue to widen in the short term [100]. Balance Sheet The report provides a methanol balance sheet from July 2025 to June 2026, including data on total production, imports, total supply, consumption, MTO demand, traditional demand, total demand, surplus/deficit, year - on - year production growth, and year - on - year consumption growth [105].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have shown a strong performance since the New Year, driven by geopolitical disturbances in Iran leading to reduced imports, although downstream MTO profit compression limits price increases [1][5]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic supply remains high due to sustained operating rates of coal-based methanol plants, while natural gas-based plants are experiencing seasonal shutdowns, leading to a temporary reduction in supply [2]. - Overseas supply has significantly decreased, particularly due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants since late November, resulting in a continuous decline in overseas operating rates [2]. - Currently, only a few Iranian methanol plants are operational, with daily production at low levels, and a notable decrease in Iranian shipments since December, indicating a significant reduction in domestic imports expected in Q1 [2]. Group 2: Demand Trends - Demand is currently weak, primarily due to traditional demand being in the off-season and profit compression in olefins leading to expected shutdowns of some facilities [3]. - Although the overall operating rate remains relatively high, terminal demand is weak, resulting in low inventory replenishment willingness among downstream players [3]. - The reduction in olefin demand, which accounts for over half of methanol demand, is expected to significantly limit methanol price increases [3]. Group 3: Inventory Changes - Recent domestic methanol inventory shows divergence, with port inventories gradually decreasing while inland inventories are accumulating [4]. - Port inventories have started to decline since December, primarily due to reduced imports and increased replenishment by olefin companies post-holiday [4]. - Inland inventory pressures have emerged due to high domestic production levels and declining traditional demand, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventory [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term methanol prices are expected to remain strong, primarily due to market speculation regarding geopolitical factors affecting imports, although downstream demand reduction may suppress price increases [5]. - The majority of Iranian methanol plants are currently shut down, maintaining low daily production, with expectations of a significant reduction in domestic imports in Q1 [5]. - The market will closely monitor further developments in geopolitical situations and the dynamics of coastal MTO facilities, with methanol prices anticipated to maintain a strong oscillating trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market was weak, with prices in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price was between 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol enterprises' overall profits are poor. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. With the seasonal gas restriction in the Middle East, the on - the - way cargo volume in Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain at a high level [1]. - This week, the faulty downstream glacial acetic acid units are expected to resume normal operation, with an expected increase in capacity utilization. The weekly average start - up of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise, and the overall downstream demand for methanol is expected to pick up [1]. - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the import volume is expected to increase in the near future. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2220 level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Port methanol market strengthened last week due to slow port unloading, inventory reduction, and some holders' low - price selling reluctance. Inland market was weak because of seasonal freight increase and high downstream raw material inventory [1]. - In the future, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate, with the 05 contract facing upper pressure at 2220 [1]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - Methanol start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The basis (Jiangsu) decreased by 62.75% week - on - week to 9.5 yuan/ton. The inland methanol sample enterprise inventory increased by 8.01% to 39.11 tons. The port methanol inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.88 tons. The weekly output increased by 0.79% to 205.59 tons [3]. - The profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol increased by 14.1% to - 135.8 yuan/ton. The profit of North China coke - oven gas - to - methanol decreased by 10.58% to 169 yuan/ton. The profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320 yuan/ton [3]. - The downstream acetic acid start - up rate increased by 3.55% to 76.51%, while the downstream methanol - to - olefins start - up rate decreased by 1.34% to 88.99% [3]. 3.4 Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market was range - bound, with prices in Jiangsu fluctuating from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton [7]. 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 90.52%, a 0.81% increase from the previous period [8]. - The weekly average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol (based on full cost) was - 135.80 yuan/ton, a 14.10% increase from the previous period. Based on cash - flow cost, the profit increased by 9.22% [8]. - The weekly average profit of Hebei coke - oven gas - to - methanol was 169.00 yuan/ton, a 10.58% decrease from the previous week. The weekly average profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320.00 yuan/ton [8]. 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70.10%, a 7.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Most plants maintained their previous loads this week [10]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream glacial acetic acid increased, although there were still frequent faults. Some plants had short - term outages, while some were not operating at full capacity [10]. 3.7 Inventory Analysis - As of December 17, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a 1.56 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 13.8% increase compared to the same period last year [12]. 3.8 Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in methanol futures was 799,442, a decrease of 22,337. The short - position volume was 935,039, a decrease of 8,706. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [15].