Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol will experience a short - term correction. The international methanol device's operating rate has declined, with all Iranian devices halted due to conflicts, significantly tightening supply. However, the domestic coal price continues to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have reached a historical high, and domestic supply remains ample. Although the tight supply situation in the inland has eased to some extent, downstream demand has increased, and the bulk market is oscillating strongly. But with the easing of the Middle East situation, the upward impetus from geopolitical conflicts has temporarily ended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market saw a sharp decline, closing at 2379 (-133/-5.29%). - In the spot market, prices vary by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2055 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1980 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, the Lunan region is priced at 2330 yuan/ton; at ports, the Taicang market is priced at 2620 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week, the international methanol production was 803,933 tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 55.11%, a significant drop of 15.80% from last week. Iranian devices have all stopped, while those in North and South America are operating stably, with some production lines shut down due to seasonal gas restrictions. The operating load in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas is low, and an African device has temporarily stopped due to natural gas supply issues [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm, and the profit from coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, and domestic supply is continuously abundant [5]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined, the US dollar price has continued to rise, and the import parity has widened. Non - Iranian operations are stable, the European and American markets have declined slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. As of June, 520,000 tons have been loaded in Iran, Iranian tenders have been suspended, US dollar transactions have weakened, and the expected import volume in July is 1.25 million tons. Hoarders are reluctant to sell, and liquidity is concentrated [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and their start - up rates have declined. The start - up rate of MTO devices has increased. Multiple MTO devices, such as the 690,000 - ton/year Xingxing MTO device, are operating, but some are operating at less - than - full capacity [5]. - **Inventory**: Import arrivals have decreased, and inventory is starting to be reduced, with a firm basis; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. With an increase in arrivals, port inventory will start to accumulate [5]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Do not chase high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell call options [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain loose, and it continues to oscillate weakly. The coal mine operating rate in the raw coal aspect has declined slightly. As of June 5th, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos is 66%, and in Yulin it is 44%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 3.8 million tons, with weak demand and a weak pithead price. On the supply side, the operating rate of coal mines in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, raw coal prices are oscillating, the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest have stopped falling and stabilized, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 500 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous loose domestic supply. On the import side, the operating rate of international methanol plants has declined from a high level, the US dollar price has risen slightly, imports remain in a positive spread situation, some plants in Iran have restarted, the non - Iranian operating rate is stable, the external operating rate has increased from a high level, the European and American markets are differentiated, the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed, Iran has loaded 19 in June and has tendered again, non - Iranian transactions are good, and the import volume in June is expected to be 1.35 - 1.4 billion tons. On the demand side, the traditional downstream has entered the off - season with a declining operating rate, while the operating rate of MTO plants has increased. In the inventory aspect, imports are gradually recovering, demand is rigid, imports are in a positive spread situation, port inventories have bottomed out, and the basis is consolidating; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. Overall, the international plant operating rate has declined from a high level, some plants in Iran have had short - term shutdowns, the daily output has dropped from 38,000 tons to around 29,000 tons but is still at a high level. The loading volume in Iran in May was 820,000 tons, the import volume in May is expected to be over 1.2 million tons, and the import volume in June will increase significantly to over 1.3 million tons. Downstream demand is stable, ports have started to accumulate inventory as the arrival volume increases. At the same time, as domestic coal prices continue to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have expanded to the highest level in history, the scale of spring maintenance is less than expected, and domestic supply is loose. Currently, the phased external procurement of inland CTO has ended, inland enterprise inventories have bottomed out and started to accumulate, the tight supply situation has been alleviated to some extent, downstream resistance to high prices has led to continuous declines in inland auction prices. However, the MTO operating rate has increased, port demand has increased, bulk commodities are oscillating strongly, methanol will follow the upward trend in the short term, but a bearish view should be taken in the medium - to - long - term, and short - selling on dips is not recommended [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: The raw coal supply presents a situation of declining operating rate and weak demand, with prices oscillating. The domestic methanol supply is loose, with high - level stable operating rates and expanding coal - to - methanol profits. The import situation shows a decline in the international operating rate, a slight increase in prices, and an expected increase in import volume. The demand side has a differentiated situation between traditional downstream and MTO. Inventory is accumulating at ports and inland enterprises. Overall, methanol is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term but be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, focus on short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [5]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of June 5th, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load is 74.52%, a 0.19 - percentage - point decline from last week and a 5.09 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year; the operating load in the northwest region is 80.85%, a 0.09 - percentage - point decline from last week and a 5.73 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The national methanol operating load has slightly declined due to the decline in the operating loads in North and Southwest China. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China is 70.82%, a 0.07 - percentage - point increase from last week [6]. - **Supply - International**: The international (ex - China) methanol production in this cycle is 961,053 tons, a decrease of 7,200 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 65.88%, a 0.49% decline from last week. In the cycle, Iran's ZPC had a temporary shutdown, Kimiya is reported to have restarted today, Apadana is operating at a low load; the North American operating rate has declined; the Egyptian plant has returned to normal operation [6]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on June 4th, 2025, when the port inventory data was released, the sample arrival volume of methanol in China in the cycle is 332,900 tons; among them, foreign vessels accounted for 313,500 tons (263,500 tons were visible and 50,000 tons were invisible, with 131,500 tons visible in Jiangsu); domestic vessels supplemented 19,400 tons in the cycle, including 10,500 tons in Jiangsu and 8,900 tons in Guangdong [6]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of June 5th, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 85.15%, a 0.54% increase from last week. Although a plant in Jiangsu slightly reduced its load this week, a plant in Jiangsu gradually increased its load last week, resulting in a slight increase in the overall weekly average capacity utilization rate compared to last week. The national olefin plant operating rate is 86.88%, with the restart of Ningxia Baofeng's second - phase plant and the increase in the load of Shandong Hengtong's plant [6]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 9.52%. During the week, Jiujiang Xinlianxin and Xinxiang Xinlianxin's plants stopped operating, and other plants mostly maintained their previous loads, resulting in a lower overall capacity utilization rate this week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 77.87%. During this period, Sopu's plant is increasing its load but has not reached full production; Celanese and Longyu's plants are under maintenance; Hubei Qianxin and Jiantao's second - phase plants continue to increase their loads, resulting in a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The formaldehyde operating rate is 51.11%. During the week, Jinyimeng's plant increased its load and is operating normally, and Wende Cheng's plant decreased its load and is operating normally [6]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: In the week of June 3rd, 2025, the weekly signing volume of the sample methanol production enterprises in the northwest region is 61,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a year - on - year decrease of 6.15% [6]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 370,500 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 262,200 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons from the previous period [6]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of June 4th, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China is 581,200 tons, an increase of 58,200 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China has increased by 51,300 tons; the inventory in South China has increased by 6,900 tons [6]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of chemical coal in the northwest region has declined again, and the methanol price has fallen. The profit of coal - to - methanol in the Inner Mongolia region is around 620 yuan/ton, and in the northern Shaanxi region it is 560 yuan/ton. In terms of spreads, the port - to - northern line spread is 430 yuan/ton, and the port - to - northern Shandong spread is 170 yuan/ton. MTO losses are stable; the basis is temporarily stable [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang is 2,310 yuan (+90), and the price in the northern line is 1,880 yuan (+10) [9].