Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, methanol prices accelerated their decline, with the 01 contract dropping by 148 yuan. The spot market also weakened. The expected overseas production cuts did not materialize, and port inventories remained at historically high levels. The market is following a "weak reality" logic. The 1 - 5 spread has been in a contango pattern. There are expectations for supply - demand improvement in the 05 contract. The current market situation is characterized by increased supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels posing significant pressure on the market. Given the current situation, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In October, the methanol 01 contract dropped by 148 yuan, and the spot market weakened. The expected overseas production cuts did not occur, and port inventories remained high. The 1 - 5 spread continued to widen in contango, and there are expectations for supply - demand improvement in the 05 contract [11]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In October, domestic methanol production was 8.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Coal prices have been rising, but it has not affected methanol production enthusiasm. Imports remained high, with the latest arrival at 387,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,300 tons [11]. - **Demand**: Port olefin plants continued to reduce their operating rates, with the latest operating rate at 82.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. After the "Golden September and Silver October" period, traditional demand entered the off - season, and operating rates declined [11]. - **Valuation**: Port inventories remained high, and the basis and 1 - 5 spread were both at low levels compared to the same period. Coal prices continued to rise, and methanol production profits continued to decline, but the current profit level is still considered neutral. As methanol prices dropped, MTO profits improved significantly [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories were 1.5171 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,600 tons, and were at a high level compared to the same period and difficult to reduce significantly in the short term. Enterprise inventories were 386,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons [11]. - **Market Logic**: There is not enough time for the bullish factors of the 01 contract to materialize, and the weak reality is difficult to improve. The market continued to decline, and the 1 - 5 spread continued to narrow [11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread reached a record low, and the basis was at a low level compared to the same period [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market continued to decline with increasing open interest [23]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Coal prices have increased significantly [27]. - **Production Profits**: Methanol production profits continued to decline [35]. - **Port Inventories**: Port inventories are at historically high levels [39]. 4. Supply Side - **Upstream Production and Operating Rates**: Overseas operating rates remained high, and domestic operating rates increased [47]. - **Imports**: Import volumes remained high, and the latest arrival was 387,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,300 tons [11][50]. - **Arrival Volumes**: Arrival volumes in different regions are presented in relevant charts [58][59]. - **International Spreads**: Import profits and various international price spreads are analyzed in relevant charts [61]. - **Domestic Freight Rates**: Domestic freight rates for methanol are presented in relevant charts [66]. 5. Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: Consumption and inventory data are presented in relevant charts [70]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Olefin operating rates and MTO operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are presented in relevant charts. The profits of MTO plants such as Fude and Xingxing are also analyzed [73]. - **PP Production Profits**: Production profits of PP through different processes are presented in relevant charts [81]. - **Other Downstream Products**: Operating rates, profits, and inventory data of other downstream products such as 1,4 - butanediol, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether are presented in relevant charts [91][93][95]. - **Related Product Ratios**: Ratios of methanol to other related products such as urea, crude oil, and动力煤 are presented in relevant charts [101]. 6. Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: Data on methanol option trading volume, open interest, and PCR are presented in relevant charts [105]. - **Methanol Option Volatility**: Volatility data of methanol options are presented in relevant charts [108]. 7. Industry Structure Diagram - Industry structure diagrams of the methanol industry and a research framework analysis mind - map are presented [110].

Report Information - Report Title: 【MA周报20251012】制裁冲击或难抵高供应压力 [1][2] - Date: 2025-10-12 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Methanol's downward space is limited, with support at the [2200] price level. Although the current supply is high and demand is average, there are strong expectations for winter restrictions on Iranian devices and the peak season of the 01 contract in the future, which will improve the supply-demand situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cost, Supply, and Demand - **Cost and Profit**: The price of动力煤is mainly stable with a weak trend. The production profit of the coal - to - methanol end is at a high level, while the natural gas - to - methanol is under pressure [7]. - **Supply**: Domestic and foreign methanol device starts are recovering. In Iran, some devices have restarted, and in other regions, some devices have experienced maintenance and restarts [7]. - **Demand**: After the holiday, the price of MTO is relatively firm, and the profit of MTO has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [7]. 2. Regional Price and Logistics - **Regional Price**: The spot price has differentiated this week. The port price rebounded after following the futures price down, showing an overall upward trend, while the inland price has slightly declined [19]. - **Freight**: After the holiday, as the transportation capacity recovers, the freight rate has dropped significantly [40]. - **Logistics Window**: The domestic methanol trade flows from north to south and from west to east. The opening and closing of the logistics window help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand imbalances [48]. 3. Production - End Profit and Start - Up - **Production - End Profit**: The coal - to - methanol profit is high, while the natural gas - to - methanol profit is under pressure. The profit of different regions and processes varies [66]. - **Domestic Start - Up and Output**: The start - up rate has further recovered this week and is currently at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The production capacity has increased, and the output of different processes also shows different trends [101]. 4. Import and Export - **Import Profit and Price Difference**: Globally, methanol prices are mainly falling. The import profit and price difference between regions vary, and attention should be paid to the price difference between Southeast Asia and China [128]. - **External - Disk Start - Up and Output**: The external - disk start - up rate is rising. Iranian devices have restarted, and the output in different regions also shows different trends [147]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: Affected by typhoons and high imports from Iran and non - Iran regions, the net import volume in August reached a record high, and the import pressure in subsequent months remains high [178]. 5. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream**: After the holiday, the MTO price is relatively firm, and the profit has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [184]. - **Traditional Downstream**: The downstream demand is relatively flat, and the start - up rate has slightly declined compared with before the holiday. The supply and demand situation of different traditional downstream industries varies [224]. 6. Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: The inland inventory has increased by 1.95 million tons to 33.94 million tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has decreased by 15.78 million tons to 11.52 million tons. The inventory has seasonally accumulated during the holiday, but the overall increase is not large [8][278]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased by 5.1 million tons to 154.32 million tons compared with last week, with an increase of 4.78 million tons in East China and 0.32 million tons in South China [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market remains under pressure due to high inventory levels, with prices mainly driven by news rather than showing a clear trend. Although there are potential positive factors on the overseas supply - side, the current high - inventory situation persists. - The supply - side shows a decline in operating rates, while enterprises still enjoy good profits. The demand - side has seen an improvement, with port olefin plants restarting and most traditional demand sectors increasing their operating rates, but profit margins remain low. - Given the complex fundamentals with both positive and negative factors, and the significant influence of overall commodity sentiment on methanol prices, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures price continued to decline this week, with a rebound on Friday due to news of gas restrictions in Iran. The port inventory reached a new high, the 1 - 5 spread recovered after a sharp drop on Thursday, and the basis strengthened. - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate was 79.91%, a 5.52% week - on - week decrease. The overseas operating rate was 69.71% and decreased week - on - week. There are rumors that Iran will restrict industrial natural gas supply to methanol plants in October, and port coal prices have stabilized and rebounded. - **Demand**: Port olefin plants resumed operation, with an operating rate of 83.24%, an 18.55% week - on - week increase, reaching a high level. Among traditional demand sectors, the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid decreased slightly, while others increased, leading to a slight recovery in overall demand. - **Fundamentals and Valuation**: The futures price declined, the basis strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread recovered after a sharp drop, remaining at a low level compared to the same period last year. Spot prices weakened, and corporate profits declined from high levels. MTO profits also decreased, and traditional demand profits were generally low. Methanol valuation is moderately high. - **Inventory**: Port inventory was 155.78 tons, a 0.75 - ton week - on - week increase, reaching a new high. Enterprise inventory was 34.05 tons, a 0.25 - ton week - on - week decrease, and enterprise orders to be shipped were 23.38 tons, a 1.69 - ton week - on - week decrease. - **Market Logic**: The current situation is characterized by high inventory, and the market is focused on potential positive factors on the overseas supply - side. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts were 2346, 2361, and 2381 respectively. The 09 contract increased by 116 compared to the previous week, while the 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 18 and 4 respectively. - **Spot Market**: Prices in most domestic regions decreased, with Jiangsu, Fujian, and other regions seeing price drops, while Anhui and Hebei had price increases. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE increased, while formaldehyde prices decreased. - **International Prices**: CFR prices in most regions remained unchanged, with only a slight change in CFR India. The import profit of methanol was - 129.4, a 0.67 increase compared to the previous week [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of methanol futures increased significantly [22]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Coal prices stopped falling and stabilized. - **Production Profit**: There are charts showing the profit calculations of coal - based and gas - based methanol production in different regions. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to increase, while factory inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the same period [26][41][43]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Capacity**: New methanol production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2025, with a total of 745 tons of new capacity from several enterprises in the northwest region. - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: The domestic and overseas methanol operating rates showed a downward trend. - **Import Volume**: There are charts showing the import volume and its year - on - year changes from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. - **Arrival Volume**: Charts show the arrival volume of methanol in China, the eastern region, and the southern region. - **International and Regional Price Spreads**: There are charts showing import profit, international price spreads, and regional price spreads [49][54][59][68][72]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: There are charts showing methanol consumption and ending inventory. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Port olefin plants resumed operation, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins increased. - **PP Production Profit**: There are charts showing the production profits of PP in different production processes. - **MTO - Related Price Spreads**: There are charts showing various MTO - related price spreads. - **Other Downstream Products**: There are charts showing the operating rates and profits of products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether [87][90][92][95]. 3.6. Options - Related - There are charts showing the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of methanol options [117][119]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - There are charts showing the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map [122][124].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is currently experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with recent events such as the explosion at Iran's Abbas port potentially impacting future supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - As of April 24, domestic methanol operating rates are at 71.04%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points from the previous month, but an increase of 2.45 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port, which handles over 55% of Iran's non-oil cargo, raises concerns about its impact on methanol shipments, although most other ports are operating normally [1]. - China's methanol port inventory stands at 463,200 tons, down by 122,400 tons week-on-week, while production enterprise inventory is at 309,800 tons, a slight decrease of 2,600 tons [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation remains tight, but demand indicators show weakness, particularly in traditional sectors like BDO, which are experiencing declining production [2]. - The upcoming May Day holiday is contributing to poor downstream stocking sentiment, with low inventory levels reported [2]. - Despite the explosion in Iran, the government has acted quickly to mitigate the situation, with firefighting efforts reportedly 80% complete by April 27, suggesting minimal short-term impact on methanol supply [2]. Price Outlook - Port and enterprise inventories continue to decline, supporting near-term prices, but the overall industry faces risks from potential supply increases and weakening demand [3]. - Current industry profits are concentrated in the methanol sector, but there is an expectation that profits will gradually shift downstream, putting pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The methanol market is anticipated to face further downward pressure on prices due to a seasonal decline in demand, with recommendations to adopt a short position on high prices [3].