港口库存历史高位，警惕进一步 下跌风险 甲醇月报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/11/07 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 行情回顾 | 10月份甲醇表现为加速下跌，01合约全月跌148元，现货同步走弱，前期多头预期的海外限产利多迟迟未有兑现，港口库存维 持在历史高位，市场开始走弱现实逻辑，目前01合约随着时间的推进，利多兑现难度加大，1-5持续走反套，市场对于05合约 上的供需改善有一定预期。 | | --- | --- | | 基本面 |  10月国内甲醇产量878万吨，同比增5.7%，处于近年同期高位水平。 供应  煤炭持续走强，目前暂未对甲醇生产积极性造成影响。  进口依旧较多，最新到港38.7万吨，环比+3.93万吨。  港口烯烃持续降负，最新开工82.97%，环比-0.79%。 需求  金九银十后传统需求逐步进入淡季，开工均有所回落。 | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: 【MA周报20251012】制裁冲击或难抵高供应压力 [1][2] - Date: 2025-10-12 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Methanol's downward space is limited, with support at the [2200] price level. Although the current supply is high and demand is average, there are strong expectations for winter restrictions on Iranian devices and the peak season of the 01 contract in the future, which will improve the supply-demand situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cost, Supply, and Demand - **Cost and Profit**: The price of动力煤is mainly stable with a weak trend. The production profit of the coal - to - methanol end is at a high level, while the natural gas - to - methanol is under pressure [7]. - **Supply**: Domestic and foreign methanol device starts are recovering. In Iran, some devices have restarted, and in other regions, some devices have experienced maintenance and restarts [7]. - **Demand**: After the holiday, the price of MTO is relatively firm, and the profit of MTO has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [7]. 2. Regional Price and Logistics - **Regional Price**: The spot price has differentiated this week. The port price rebounded after following the futures price down, showing an overall upward trend, while the inland price has slightly declined [19]. - **Freight**: After the holiday, as the transportation capacity recovers, the freight rate has dropped significantly [40]. - **Logistics Window**: The domestic methanol trade flows from north to south and from west to east. The opening and closing of the logistics window help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand imbalances [48]. 3. Production - End Profit and Start - Up - **Production - End Profit**: The coal - to - methanol profit is high, while the natural gas - to - methanol profit is under pressure. The profit of different regions and processes varies [66]. - **Domestic Start - Up and Output**: The start - up rate has further recovered this week and is currently at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The production capacity has increased, and the output of different processes also shows different trends [101]. 4. Import and Export - **Import Profit and Price Difference**: Globally, methanol prices are mainly falling. The import profit and price difference between regions vary, and attention should be paid to the price difference between Southeast Asia and China [128]. - **External - Disk Start - Up and Output**: The external - disk start - up rate is rising. Iranian devices have restarted, and the output in different regions also shows different trends [147]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: Affected by typhoons and high imports from Iran and non - Iran regions, the net import volume in August reached a record high, and the import pressure in subsequent months remains high [178]. 5. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream**: After the holiday, the MTO price is relatively firm, and the profit has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [184]. - **Traditional Downstream**: The downstream demand is relatively flat, and the start - up rate has slightly declined compared with before the holiday. The supply and demand situation of different traditional downstream industries varies [224]. 6. Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: The inland inventory has increased by 1.95 million tons to 33.94 million tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has decreased by 15.78 million tons to 11.52 million tons. The inventory has seasonally accumulated during the holiday, but the overall increase is not large [8][278]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased by 5.1 million tons to 154.32 million tons compared with last week, with an increase of 4.78 million tons in East China and 0.32 million tons in South China [8].

港口库存再创新高， 盘面增仓下跌 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/09/20 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 本周盘面延续下行，周五在伊朗限气消息影响下价格有所反弹，港口库存再度创出新高，周四1-5价差大跌后周五收回，基差 有所走强，目前高库存下价格表现偏弱，市场上涨靠消息驱动，整体仍难有趋势性行情。 | | --- | --- | | |  本周开工79.91，环比-5.52%。 供应  海外开工69.71%，环比回落。市场传伊朗将在10月限制甲醇工厂工业天然气供应。  港口煤炭价格企稳回升。 | | |  港口烯烃装置回归，本周开工83.24%，环比+18.55%，开工回到高位。 需求  传统需求甲醛、醋酸开工小幅回落，其余走高，需求小幅回暖 | | 基本面 |  盘面下跌，基差走强，1-5价差大跌后收回，同比低位。  现货走 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is currently experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with recent events such as the explosion at Iran's Abbas port potentially impacting future supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - As of April 24, domestic methanol operating rates are at 71.04%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points from the previous month, but an increase of 2.45 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port, which handles over 55% of Iran's non-oil cargo, raises concerns about its impact on methanol shipments, although most other ports are operating normally [1]. - China's methanol port inventory stands at 463,200 tons, down by 122,400 tons week-on-week, while production enterprise inventory is at 309,800 tons, a slight decrease of 2,600 tons [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation remains tight, but demand indicators show weakness, particularly in traditional sectors like BDO, which are experiencing declining production [2]. - The upcoming May Day holiday is contributing to poor downstream stocking sentiment, with low inventory levels reported [2]. - Despite the explosion in Iran, the government has acted quickly to mitigate the situation, with firefighting efforts reportedly 80% complete by April 27, suggesting minimal short-term impact on methanol supply [2]. Price Outlook - Port and enterprise inventories continue to decline, supporting near-term prices, but the overall industry faces risks from potential supply increases and weakening demand [3]. - Current industry profits are concentrated in the methanol sector, but there is an expectation that profits will gradually shift downstream, putting pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The methanol market is anticipated to face further downward pressure on prices due to a seasonal decline in demand, with recommendations to adopt a short position on high prices [3].