港口库存再创新高， 盘面增仓下跌 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/09/20 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 本周盘面延续下行，周五在伊朗限气消息影响下价格有所反弹，港口库存再度创出新高，周四1-5价差大跌后周五收回，基差 有所走强，目前高库存下价格表现偏弱，市场上涨靠消息驱动，整体仍难有趋势性行情。 | | --- | --- | | |  本周开工79.91，环比-5.52%。 供应  海外开工69.71%，环比回落。市场传伊朗将在10月限制甲醇工厂工业天然气供应。  港口煤炭价格企稳回升。 | | |  港口烯烃装置回归，本周开工83.24%，环比+18.55%，开工回到高位。 需求  传统需求甲醛、醋酸开工小幅回落，其余走高，需求小幅回暖 | | 基本面 |  盘面下跌，基差走强，1-5价差大跌后收回，同比低位。  现货走 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is currently experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with recent events such as the explosion at Iran's Abbas port potentially impacting future supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - As of April 24, domestic methanol operating rates are at 71.04%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points from the previous month, but an increase of 2.45 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port, which handles over 55% of Iran's non-oil cargo, raises concerns about its impact on methanol shipments, although most other ports are operating normally [1]. - China's methanol port inventory stands at 463,200 tons, down by 122,400 tons week-on-week, while production enterprise inventory is at 309,800 tons, a slight decrease of 2,600 tons [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation remains tight, but demand indicators show weakness, particularly in traditional sectors like BDO, which are experiencing declining production [2]. - The upcoming May Day holiday is contributing to poor downstream stocking sentiment, with low inventory levels reported [2]. - Despite the explosion in Iran, the government has acted quickly to mitigate the situation, with firefighting efforts reportedly 80% complete by April 27, suggesting minimal short-term impact on methanol supply [2]. Price Outlook - Port and enterprise inventories continue to decline, supporting near-term prices, but the overall industry faces risks from potential supply increases and weakening demand [3]. - Current industry profits are concentrated in the methanol sector, but there is an expectation that profits will gradually shift downstream, putting pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The methanol market is anticipated to face further downward pressure on prices due to a seasonal decline in demand, with recommendations to adopt a short position on high prices [3].