多晶硅：震荡偏强 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 11 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：关注盘面下方支撑 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | 指标名称 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | | | | 8,960 | 20 | -20 | 40 | | Si2601成交量（手） | | | | 248,188 | 34,176 | -56,440 | 60,924 | | Si2601持仓量（手） | | | | 263,919 | 1,243 | 15,900 | 77,580 | | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | | 54,730 | 1,415 | 2,520 | - | | PS2601成交量（手） | | | | 235,600 | 47,724 | 61,896 | - | | PS2601持仓量（手） | | | | ...

Core Insights - The national electricity market transaction volume in China increased by 7.9% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [1] - In October 2025, the total electricity market transaction volume reached 563.8 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 15.6% year-on-year growth [1] Transaction Volume Analysis - The provincial transaction volume was 437.7 billion kilowatt-hours, up 15.4% year-on-year, while the inter-provincial and inter-regional transaction volume was 126.1 billion kilowatt-hours, increasing by 16.2% [1] - For transaction types, the medium to long-term transaction volume was 523.1 billion kilowatt-hours, and the spot transaction volume was 40.7 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Green electricity transaction volume reached 28.3 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a significant increase of 28.4% year-on-year [1] Cumulative Transaction Data - From January to October 2025, the cumulative electricity market transaction volume totaled 5,492 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 63.7% of the total electricity consumption, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The provincial transaction volume during this period was 416.59 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year growth, while the inter-provincial and inter-regional transaction volume was 132.61 billion kilowatt-hours, up 12.5% [1] - The medium to long-term transaction volume for the same period was 526.81 billion kilowatt-hours, and the spot transaction volume was 223.9 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Green electricity transaction volume for January to October was 262.7 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [1]

经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，国家能源局今天(11月25日)发布数据显示，今年1月-10月，全国累 计完成电力市场交易电量54920亿千瓦时，同比增长7.9%，占全社会用电量比重63.7%，同比提高1.5个 百分点。其中，省内交易电量41659亿千瓦时，同比增长6.6%；跨省跨区交易电量13261亿千瓦时，同 比增长12.5%。绿电交易电量2627亿千瓦时，同比增长39.4%。 ...

2025年1-10月，全国累计完成电力市场交易电量54920亿千瓦时，同比增长7.9%，占全社会用电量比重 63.7%，同比提高1.5个百分点。从交易范围看，省内交易电量41659亿千瓦时，同比增长6.6%；跨省跨 区交易电量13261亿千瓦时，同比增长12.5%。从交易品种看，中长期交易电量52681亿千瓦时；现货交 易电量2239亿千瓦时。绿电交易电量2627亿千瓦时，同比增长39.4%。 本文编选自"国家能源局"微信公众号，智通财经编辑：冯秋怡。 智通财经APP获悉，国家能源局数据显示，2025年10月，全国完成电力市场交易电量5638亿千瓦时，同 比增长15.6%。从交易范围看，省内交易电量4377亿千瓦时，同比增长15.4%；跨省跨区交易电量1261 亿千瓦时，同比增长16.2%。从交易品种看，中长期交易电量5231亿千瓦时；现货交易电量407亿千瓦 时。绿电交易电量283亿千瓦时，同比增长28.4%。 ...

人民财讯11月25日电，国家能源局数据显示，2025年10月，全国完成电力市场交易电量5638亿千瓦时， 同比增长15.6%。2025年1—10月，全国累计完成电力市场交易电量54920亿千瓦时，同比增长7.9%，占 全社会用电量比重63.7%，同比提高1.5个百分点。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of virtual power plants (VPPs) as a key tool in building a new power system, highlighting their ability to aggregate distributed resources and provide flexible capacity to address the volatility of renewable energy sources [1][8] - The development of VPPs is transitioning from pilot projects to scalable, productized solutions, with clear legal status and market participation mechanisms established by national policies [2][3] - VPPs are seen as complementary to traditional power plants, enhancing grid flexibility and reliability rather than replacing conventional energy sources [4][8] Group 1: Policy and Development - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set targets for VPP capacity, aiming for 20 million kW by 2027 and 50 million kW by 2030 [1] - Recent policy breakthroughs have established VPPs as independent market entities, enabling them to participate in electricity market transactions with defined technical requirements [2] - Local governments are actively promoting the construction of city-level VPP platforms, integrating them into extreme weather power supply systems for real-time grid coordination [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The international development of VPPs follows three main models: the European model focusing on flexibility markets, the Australian model emphasizing home storage, and the North American model centered on commercial load aggregation [3] - In China, VPP development is characterized by user-side aggregation, park energy management, and integrated source-grid-load-storage systems, with a focus on optimizing local energy use and market benefits [3] Group 3: Economic Viability - VPPs must achieve economic sustainability by optimizing their internal systems and converting adjustable capacity into marketable services, balancing user economics with system value [5][6] - The revenue model for VPPs is evolving from reliance on subsidies to a diversified structure that includes self-use savings and market-based settlements, enhancing cash flow stability [2] Group 4: Technical and Operational Considerations - VPPs leverage distributed resources to provide rapid, flexible responses to grid demands, particularly during peak loads or extreme weather events, thus supporting grid stability [4] - The development of VPPs faces challenges such as high initial investment, complex technology integration, and the need for robust contractual and credit mechanisms to ensure performance reliability [4] Group 5: Market and Contract Design - Recommendations for improving VPP market design include differentiating pricing based on sustainable duration and incorporating non-energy attributes into procurement lists to enhance service reliability [7] - Pilot programs for urban-level VPPs could explore "availability contracts" to stabilize cash flows and align with public safety and resilience goals [7] Conclusion - VPPs represent a transformative approach to integrating fragmented energy resources into a cohesive system, providing enhanced flexibility and resilience for a high-renewable energy future [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth in China's electricity market transactions and the performance of the cultural and related industries, indicating a positive trend in revenue and market activity despite some challenges in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [2][5][12]. Electricity Market Transactions - In September 2025, the total electricity market transaction volume reached 573.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. The provincial transactions accounted for 430.3 billion kilowatt-hours, growing by 7.2%, while inter-provincial transactions rose by 18.5% to 142.9 billion kilowatt-hours [3]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative electricity market transaction volume was 49,239 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.2% year-on-year, representing 63.4% of the total electricity consumption, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [3]. - The long-term transaction volume was 47,234 billion kilowatt-hours, while spot transaction volume was 2,005 billion kilowatt-hours. Green electricity transactions reached 2,348 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 40.6% increase [3]. Cultural and Related Industries - In the first three quarters of 2025, the revenue of large-scale cultural and related enterprises grew by 7.9% year-on-year, totaling 1,095.89 billion yuan, which is 0.5 percentage points faster than the growth rate in the first half of the year [6][7]. - The profit of cultural enterprises reached 90.93 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.2% increase, with a profit margin of 8.30%, up by 0.45 percentage points from the previous year [8]. - The cultural manufacturing sector generated 30,766 billion yuan, growing by 2.3%, while the cultural service sector saw a more significant increase of 11.9%, totaling 60,626 billion yuan [7][8]. - The eastern region's cultural enterprises reported revenues of 87,561 billion yuan, an 8.2% increase, while the central and western regions also experienced growth rates of 6.4% and 8.7%, respectively [8]. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.0%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing activity [12]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, showing a slight increase, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [17]. - The comprehensive PMI output index stood at 50.0%, reflecting stability in overall production and business activities [20].

Core Insights - The national electricity market transaction volume reached 573.2 billion kilowatt-hours in September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - The intra-provincial transaction volume was 430.3 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.2% year-on-year, while inter-provincial and inter-regional transactions totaled 142.9 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting an 18.5% increase [1] - Green electricity transactions amounted to 29 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a significant growth of 42.9% year-on-year [1] Transaction Volume Summary - From January to September 2025, the cumulative electricity market transaction volume reached 4,923.9 billion kilowatt-hours, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, accounting for 63.4% of the total electricity consumption, which is a 1.4 percentage point increase [1] - Intra-provincial transactions for the same period were 3,728.9 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.7% year-on-year, while inter-provincial and inter-regional transactions were 1,195 billion kilowatt-hours, increasing by 12.1% [1] - The mid-to-long-term transaction volume was 47,234 billion kilowatt-hours, while spot market transactions reached 2,005 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Green electricity transactions for the first nine months totaled 2,348 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.6% [1]

Macro Dynamics - Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau and five other departments released policies to attract long-term funds into the market, emphasizing the establishment of a long-term performance-oriented assessment mechanism for commercial insurance funds and encouraging listed companies to repurchase and increase holdings [2] - The China Insurance Industry Association reported that the current preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is 1.90%, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the industry to enhance operational efficiency and service quality [3] - From January to September, state-owned enterprises reported total operating revenue of 6132.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 1.6% to 316.703 billion yuan [4] Energy Sector - The National Energy Administration announced that from January to September, the national electricity market transaction volume increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with total transactions reaching 4923.9 billion kWh, accounting for 63.4% of total electricity consumption [5] Company Dynamics - Yushu Technology announced the upcoming release of a new product with performance approximately twice that of its Go2 model, likely a quadruped robot [12] - Shanghai Zhiyuan Hengyue Technology completed a tender offer for shares of Shangwei New Materials, acquiring 58.6232% of the company, with shares resuming trading on October 30 [13] - Tongchen Beijian reported a third-quarter net profit of 171 million yuan, a significant increase of 861.91% year-on-year, with total revenue of 1.383 billion yuan, up 23.45% [14] - Dongfang Communication announced a third-quarter net profit of 232 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1418.64%, primarily due to fluctuations in the fair value of its financial assets [15] - China Electric Power Construction signed a contract worth approximately 6.568 billion yuan for the design and construction of a complex hospital project in Peru, with a project duration of 1080 days [17]

Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2023, China's electricity market transaction volume reached 49,239 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] - In September 2023 alone, the transaction volume was 5,732 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] Transaction Scope - The intra-provincial transaction volume was 43,03 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.2% year-on-year [1] - The inter-provincial and inter-regional transaction volume was 1,429 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year growth [1] Transaction Types - The medium and long-term transaction volume was 53,31 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The spot transaction volume was 401 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Green electricity transaction volume reached 290 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 42.9% [1] Overall Market Impact - The total electricity market transaction volume accounted for 63.4% of the total electricity consumption in society, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - For the first nine months, the intra-provincial transaction volume was 37,289 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.7% year-on-year [1] - The inter-provincial and inter-regional transaction volume was 11,950 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [1] - The medium and long-term transaction volume for the first nine months was 47,234 billion kilowatt-hours, while the spot transaction volume was 2,005 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The green electricity transaction volume for the same period was 2,348 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.6% [1]