未来中期看，全球流动性对金价有一定支撑。本轮全球降息周期非美央行先于美联储降息，全球流动性外溢效应推升黄金。近期美国通胀数据不及预期，关 税对通胀压力可能没有市场预期那么明显，从现实通胀预测指标来看，预计年内美国通胀风险可控。美联储降息仍有空间，近期美联储沃勒、鲍曼表示支持 最早在7月降息。部分央行会跟随美联储降息，因此全球降息潮尚未结束，金价中期有支撑。 A 股主要指数上周多数出现震荡下行，具体原因有：一是上证指数在3600点上方有较大阻力；二是7 月份上证指数连续突破3400 点、3500 点并一度站上 3600 点，市场获利盘较重；三是5 月中美联合声明确定的24%对等关税暂缓90 天将在8 月份到期，中美之间虽然已就对等关税事宜进行了第三次谈判，但未 来发展方向的不确定性依然较大；四是8 月份美国对多数国家落地新的关税税率，且总体呈现抬高趋势，将负面影响全球经济发展。长维度来看，目前A 股 市场依然处于新"国九条"行情+类"四万亿"投资的重叠趋势中，预计2025 年下半年A 股市场大概率继续以"慢牛"方式运行。 主力净流入行业板块前五：半导体，国产软件，新能源汽车，锂电池，军工； 主力净流入概念板块前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall outlook for the electric power equipment and new energy sectors remains positive, driven by domestic and international demand synergy, with expectations for continued growth in lithium batteries, wind power, energy storage, and electric power equipment [1][2]. New Energy and Electric Power Equipment - The renewable energy generation capacity in China is expected to reach a historical high in 2024, accounting for over 60% of the global new renewable energy capacity additions, with an anticipated increase of over 300 million kilowatts in wind and solar power installations this year [1]. - By 2024, cumulative wind power capacity in China is projected to reach 520 million kilowatts, while cumulative solar power capacity is expected to hit 890 million kilowatts, marking significant project completions in high-altitude solar and "fishing-light complementary" projects [1]. Lithium Battery Sector - The domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles continue to show high growth, with a stable profitability outlook for the lithium battery sector, indicating long-term investment opportunities [2]. - The lithium battery industry has experienced a downward adjustment over the past two years, with profitability at historical lows by the end of 2024. However, demand growth is expected to reach 25% to 30% in 2025, driven by increased penetration of new energy vehicles and rising demand in emerging markets [2]. Wind Power Industry - The domestic offshore wind power installation is expected to see high demand from 2025 to 2026, with significant growth anticipated in overseas offshore wind installations in 2026 [2]. - As of early 2023, new offshore wind projects in China have added approximately 5.65 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, indicating a robust market for offshore wind power [2]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage industry is benefiting from declining costs and improved business models, leading to enhanced economic viability at the end-user level, with global demand expected to continue explosive growth in 2024 [3]. - The sector is transitioning from a low penetration phase to a rapid growth phase, with expectations for high growth in both domestic and overseas markets [3]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is showing signs of recovery, with a clear bottoming out in both market sentiment and fundamentals, and potential acceleration in industry clearing due to policy support or technological advancements, with a key turning point to be observed by the end of 2025 [3]. Electric Power Equipment Industry - Despite short-term volatility influenced by export trade conditions, the overall investment in China's power grid remains on an upward trend, with downstream demand showing certainty, presenting opportunities in the digitalization of the electric power sector [3].