评论 机构：中金公司 研究员：刘钢贤/杨鑫/蒋斯凡/冯启斌 公司近况 近期，公司披露3Q25 经营数据：东南亚业务量同比+79%至日均21.7 百万件，中国业务量同比+10%至 日均60.6 百万件，新市场业务量同比+48%至日均1.1 百万件。我们认为公司东南亚与新市场业务量超出 我们预期，看好公司国际份额的扩张进展。 我们认为拉美电商行业发展仍处于早期，极兔作为中国出海电商平台以及拉美本地电商平台美客多的第 三方物流供应商有望受益于电商渗透率提升，单量有望维持高增。 中国：短中期受制于价格战，下半 年或随"反内卷"有所缓解，观察成本优化进展。 东南亚：单量或随社交电商增长稳占市场份额第一，重申2025年快递格局优化有望迎来拐点，单票 EBIT或将维持稳定。我们认为东南亚电商零售市场仍处高速增长阶段，电商大盘层面，我们认为今年 东南亚电商快递包邮化的趋势有望进一步刺激消费者线上购物习惯的养成，因此在快递行业中份额第一 的极兔有望凭借着规模效应的成本优势，持续拉开与其他第三方物流商的份额差距。据公司公告 1H25 市场排名第四和第五的第三方物流商市场份额分别同比-1.2ppt至 5.5%、同比-0.9ppt至 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "buy" rating for Sea Ltd, reaffirming a target price of $200, indicating a potential upside of approximately 24% over the next 12 months, driven by confidence in the improvement of Sea's core business and a more rational competitive environment in the e-commerce sector [1][2]. E-commerce Business - The competitive landscape in Southeast Asia's e-commerce market is becoming more rational, particularly for Shopee, allowing Sea to maintain growth without sacrificing profit margins [1][6]. - UBS highlights that Shopee's pricing strategy has effectively limited the risk of a new price war, enabling the company to grow at or above the market average while improving profitability [6]. Financial Services - SeaMoney, the digital financial service segment, is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to rise from $1.22 billion in 2022 to $3.45 billion in 2025, potentially achieving profitability around 2025 [9]. - Cost control and operational leverage are key factors in the expected profitability of SeaMoney, alongside its synergy with Shopee's ecosystem [9]. Gaming Business - The digital entertainment segment, Garena, is expected to recover slightly after a decline, with revenues projected to rise from $1.81 billion in 2023 to $2.55 billion in 2025, supported by existing game management and new market expansions [10]. - Despite challenges, Garena is anticipated to provide stable cash flow and support overall profitability for Sea [10]. Financial Projections - UBS forecasts Sea's total revenue to grow from $12.70 billion in 2023 to $21.68 billion in 2025, driven primarily by e-commerce and financial services [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve significant EBIT growth, with projections of $3.05 billion in 2025, and EPS anticipated to increase from $1.83 in 2024 to $4.11 in 2025 [3][5]. Valuation Comparison - Sea's current valuation metrics, such as EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios, are considered attractive compared to peers in the high-growth internet sector, suggesting potential for valuation expansion [4].