Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downside risks [1] Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Domestic coal prices have transitioned from an upward trend to a rational decline since November, with the focus on whether winter demand can exceed expectations [1] - As of December 5, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 801 RMB/ton, down 27 RMB/ton (-3.3%) from the previous week [2] - The adjustment of long-term coal contracts for 2026 aims to enhance the upper limit while ensuring compliance rates, which is beneficial for sector valuation [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decrease, with total supply expected to maintain a steady decline throughout the year [2] - The demand side shows significant improvement during the off-season, with Q3 profitability expected to rebound [2] - As of December 5, 2025, the inventory of coking coal at three ports totaled 2.9 million tons, with a utilization rate of 79.18% for coking enterprises with over 200,000 tons [3] Group 3: Global Energy Landscape - The short-term position of coal in the global energy landscape remains strong, with attention drawn to issues such as electricity shortages in the U.S. [1] - The cost of domestic Q5500 coal is 35 RMB/ton lower than that of Australian imported coal, indicating competitive pricing [3] - The price of Australian coking coal increased by 7 USD/ton (3.1%) to 222 USD/ton, highlighting fluctuations in global coal pricing [3]

受现货市场走弱及进口供应激增的双重挤压，焦煤与焦炭期货（统称"双焦"）近日遭遇抛售。 12月8日，双焦延续上周五夜盘颓势，出现破位下跌。焦煤2605、2601合约及焦炭2601合约跌幅均超6%。其中，焦煤主力2605合约跌破1100元整 数关口，01合约1000元支撑位承压。自11月以来，焦煤期货月跌幅达17%，焦炭期货累计跌幅亦达11%。 针对此轮大跌，机构分析普遍认为，下游需求季节性回升幅度偏慢是核心诱因。虽然已进入冬季，但11月气温偏高导致电厂日耗低于预期，加之 库存持续积累，迫使煤价加速回归基本面。此外，进口煤炭的大幅增加也进一步缓解了供给端的压力，导致现货价格难以维持高位。 尽管短期价格承压，但部分机构认为下行空间有限。东方财富证券指出，虽电厂日耗同比偏低，但在"反内卷"及安监背景下供给持续优化，预计 跌幅可控。国泰海通认为，煤炭板块周期底部已在2025年二季度确认，供需格局显现逆转拐点，建议关注高股息资产及长协机制调整带来的估值 提升机会。市场关注点正逐渐转向后续冬季气温变化带来的需求释放，以及新一年度电煤长协机制对行业盈利的托底作用。 需求疲软拖累煤价加速下行 煤炭价格的快速回落直接源于需求端的 ...