赵伟、屠强、贾东旭、侯倩楠 （赵伟系申万宏源证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 2025：信心"走出谷底"，趋势"渐行渐近"。 跌宕之中，国内经济环境至少实现了三层变化。三层变化意义重大：转折一，"疤痕效应"的快速退潮，体现为居民端以人流和部分商品价格的筑底改善、 企业端以应收账款增速的快速回落为表征；转折二，中美博弈在经贸领域的攻守易势，表现为关税冲突对国内经济的影响弱化等；表征三，新阶段"供给 侧改革"框架的逐步成型，针对性更强。 宏微观"温差"，再成热议话题，需客观认识。宏微观"温差"是2022年之后的"常态"，也是外部环境复杂多变下中国经济转型的特有过程。2018年之后，国 内企业"内卷式"行为持续加剧，进而导致经济"循环"阻滞，表现为企业盈利与经济增速脱钩，居民就业与收入持续承压，地方债务压力下挤占企业现金 流，三者互相影响。 破局之策已在系统性加快推进，理性认识、拥抱机遇。"反内卷"与清账、大力发展服务业、地方化债等，即破局经济"循环"阻滞问题的妙手所在。企业 端，切实加强"反内卷"力度、恢复企业盈利能力，同时加快账款清理、恢复经营活力；居民端，大力发展服务业，提高全社会就业吸纳能 ...

Group 1: Economic Changes and Trends - In 2025, the domestic economy experienced three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new "supply-side reform" framework[2] - The "scar effect" has shown signs of retreat, with improvements in consumer traffic and prices of certain goods, as well as a rapid decline in accounts receivable growth for enterprises[2][25] - The export structure has been optimized, with a decrease of approximately 3.2 percentage points in exports to the U.S. to 11.4% and an increase in exports to Europe by about 0.7 percentage points to 17.2%[31] Group 2: Policy Recommendations and Economic Recovery - The report emphasizes the need for "anti-involution" measures and debt clearance to restore corporate profitability and operational vitality[3][57] - The focus on developing the service sector is crucial for improving overall employment absorption capacity in society[3][57] - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes and expanding domestic demand policies[4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The economy is predicted to undergo a non-typical recovery, transitioning from "confidence building" to a "non-typical" recovery phase, with expectations of improved corporate profitability[5] - Domestic demand policies are expected to support consumption demand, while increased debt clearance efforts will alleviate the "crowding out effect" on investment funds[5] - The inflation trend is becoming increasingly important, with PPI showing an upward trend and CPI expected to improve, contributing to the recovery of corporate profitability[5]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this year, leading to improved performance for many private equity firms, yet fundraising remains challenging for some [1][3] - A structural divide is emerging in the private equity fundraising landscape, with only certain firms benefiting from the market's positive trends [1][6] Fundraising Challenges - Despite strong performance, firms like Tongxun Investment are struggling to attract new capital, with most inflows being passive due to previous market downturns [3][8] - Established firms like Chongyang Investment have successfully raised significant new funds, indicating a contrast in investor sentiment and trust [3][4] Investor Sentiment - Investors are becoming more cautious, focusing on long-term stability and risk management rather than short-term gains, reflecting a shift in mindset due to past market volatility [5][9] - The "scar effect" is prevalent, where investors are hesitant to commit funds due to previous negative experiences, leading to a more rigorous evaluation of fund managers [5][9] Trust Rebuilding - Rebuilding trust among investors is seen as a long-term process that requires collaboration between fund managers, sales channels, and investors [11][14] - Effective communication and transparency from fund managers are crucial for restoring investor confidence and ensuring sustainable performance [11][13] Strategic Adaptation - Firms are adapting their strategies to meet the evolving needs of investors, focusing on clear communication of investment logic and risk management [11][12] - The role of sales channels is shifting from mere product sales to providing comprehensive advisory services, emphasizing the importance of understanding client needs [13][14]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this year, leading to improved performance for many private equity firms, yet fundraising remains challenging for some [1][2] - A structural divergence in fundraising is evident, with some firms experiencing significant inflows while others struggle despite strong performance [1][4] - Investor sentiment has shifted, with a focus on long-term stability and risk management rather than short-term gains [5][8] Fundraising Challenges - Despite a 70% return for the year, Tongxun Investment faces difficulties in attracting new capital, with most inflows being passive due to net value increases rather than active subscriptions [2][6] - The contrast is stark with firms like Chongyang Investment, which has successfully raised substantial new funds, indicating a more mature investor base [2][3] - The "scar effect" has led to cautious investor behavior, with many prioritizing stability and historical performance over potential high returns [4][5] Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly scrutinizing private equity managers, focusing on long-term performance, team stability, and risk control [5][7] - The shift in investor mindset reflects a desire for safety and predictability, with many now requiring detailed due diligence before committing funds [7][10] - The emphasis on transparency and clear communication from fund managers is becoming crucial in rebuilding trust [9][11] Trust Rebuilding - The rebuilding of trust among investors, fund managers, and sales channels is essential for addressing the fundraising challenges faced by the industry [9][11] - Effective communication and a focus on absolute returns are key strategies for private equity firms to regain investor confidence [9][10] - Sales channels are evolving from mere product sellers to professional advisors, emphasizing the importance of understanding client needs and providing comprehensive support [10][11]