Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant transformation in 2025, facing challenges such as high channel inventory and weak terminal sales, while also experiencing new opportunities driven by changing policies, consumption patterns, and scenarios [2][3] - The market is seeing a shift towards product innovation targeting younger consumers, with low-alcohol beverages and fruit-flavored wines becoming popular among Generation Z [2] - The industry is also accelerating its international expansion, moving from product export to cultural export, as domestic growth slows [2] Price Trends - The retail prices of liquor in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have shown a clear trend of "overall decline, weak peak seasons, and increasing differentiation" [4][6] - Over half of the monitored products in the Bay Area have experienced price declines, including high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a significant pressure on the price points [6][10] - The price of high-end products has collectively "cooled down," with many products in the 1,000 yuan price range facing substantial pressure, leading to a significant gap between listed and actual transaction prices [6][10] Regional Analysis - In Guangzhou, the liquor market has continued to show price declines and frequent fluctuations, reflecting a deepening adjustment trend [8][9] - Shenzhen's liquor prices have shown stability in offline channels, acting as a "price ballast," while online channels have seen significant price drops [12][15] - In Foshan, the price trends are characterized by a "two-tier" differentiation, with stable products maintaining their prices while others experience significant volatility [16][17] - Dongguan's liquor market has shown structural differentiation in price trends, with high-end products under pressure and mid-range products adopting flexible pricing strategies [19][21] Market Dynamics - The collective price adjustments in the Bay Area are driven by a combination of macroeconomic pressures, industry cycles, and channel transformations [22][23] - The current market pressure stems from a cooling demand for consumption, particularly in business and banquet settings, alongside a shift in consumer preferences [22] - The evolution of channels, particularly the rise of instant retail platforms, has increased price transparency and intensified competition among channels [23] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "low-price" trend in the short term, with the upcoming Spring Festival being a focal point for potential sales recovery [24] - However, significant price rebounds are unlikely until consumer confidence is restored and channel inventories are effectively reduced [24] - The industry is likely to see a shift from price wars to competition based on brand strength, product innovation, and refined channel management [24]

Core Viewpoint - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival has seen a subtle shift in the white liquor price war, with prices continuing to decline and promotional efforts from e-commerce platforms being notably subdued compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Promotions - White liquor prices have reached new lows on various e-commerce platforms, with many well-known brands experiencing a decline in sales performance during the third quarter [1][2]. - Compared to the "618" shopping festival, the promotional efforts during "Double Eleven" have been less aggressive, with reduced subsidies and a shift in focus towards other product categories [1][4]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have adopted a more aggressive stance, emphasizing authorized sales channels and warning against unauthorized purchases [1][10]. Group 2: E-commerce Strategies - E-commerce platforms such as Meituan have significantly reduced their promotional efforts for liquor categories during "Double Eleven," shifting their focus to a broader range of products [6][7]. - The promotional strategies have changed, with platforms moving from aggressive low-price tactics to a combination of discounts and coupon packages, effectively raising the threshold for subsidies [6][7]. - The overall subsidy strategy has been reassessed by several instant retail platforms following a previous round of aggressive discounting, leading to a decrease in the availability of low-priced liquor [7][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The ongoing decline in white liquor prices is attributed to a lack of strong demand and a decrease in consumer interest in high-end brands [9][10]. - Many liquor companies are now focusing on maintaining a stable pricing structure to protect their distribution channels and ensure reasonable profits for their partners [10][11]. - The transparency of pricing in the white liquor market has led to a shift in consumer behavior, with some returning to authorized channels for assurance of product authenticity [11].

Core Viewpoint - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival has begun, but the white liquor price war appears to be particularly subtle this year, with prices continuing to decline and promotional efforts from e-commerce platforms being notably subdued compared to previous years [2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Promotions - Since the second half of the year, white liquor prices have continued to drop, with many well-known brands reaching new lows on e-commerce platforms [2]. - The promotional efforts for white liquor during this year's "Double Eleven" are less aggressive than in previous years, with lower subsidy levels compared to the "618" shopping festival [2][4]. - Major liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have adopted a more aggressive stance, emphasizing authorized sales channels to combat unauthorized sales and protect their pricing strategies [4][10]. Group 2: E-commerce Platform Strategies - E-commerce platforms have shown a mixed approach to promotions, with Tmall maintaining investment in liquor categories, achieving over 50% growth in white liquor sales compared to last year [5]. - Instant retail platforms like Meituan have reduced their promotional efforts for liquor, shifting focus to other categories and raising the threshold for subsidies [6][7]. - The price of major liquor products on platforms like Meituan is higher than the recent wholesale prices, indicating a shift in strategy post-618 [6][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The overall demand for white liquor has weakened, leading to a further decline in prices, with many brands struggling to maintain their market value [9][12]. - Consumer interest in major liquor brands has decreased, as indicated by a drop in search interest on platforms like Baidu compared to last year [9]. - Liquor companies are increasingly emphasizing the importance of authorized channels to ensure product authenticity and maintain price stability, which has led some consumers to return to official sales channels [12].

Core Viewpoint - The 618 shopping festival has led to significant price reductions in the Chinese liquor market, particularly for high-end baijiu brands, as manufacturers aim to alleviate inventory pressure during a seasonal consumption lull [1][22]. Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 sampled baijiu products saw a decline in average retail prices, with notable drops in high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][2]. - The average retail price of Moutai in Guangzhou is approximately 2404 RMB, down over 100 RMB from the previous period [2]. - In Shenzhen, most products remained stable, but Moutai was largely unavailable, leading to price fluctuations [6][7]. - In Dongguan, Moutai's price increased significantly due to supply instability, rising from 2299 RMB to 2800 RMB [11][12]. Price Changes by Product - High-end products like the Eighth Generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 also experienced price drops, with Guojiao 1573 decreasing from 1075 RMB to 1004 RMB [12][13]. - The average price of the high-end product Junpin Xijiu fell to around 845 RMB in Guangzhou, with significant reductions noted across various retail channels [2][3]. - The price of Qinghualang in Dongguan dropped from 1055 RMB to 965 RMB, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in the market [12][13]. E-commerce Impact - E-commerce platforms have seen more pronounced price reductions, with many baijiu brands offering discounts and promotional activities during the 618 festival [16][20]. - On Tmall, the price of Hong Xifeng dropped from 1157 RMB to 1056 RMB, while Guojiao 1573 and Gujing Gongjiu also saw minor declines [19]. - The overall sales volume for liquor on Tmall surged by 72% year-on-year during the promotional period, indicating a positive response to lower prices [19][22]. Market Dynamics - The current price declines are attributed to a structural transformation in the baijiu industry, exacerbated by seasonal consumption patterns and increased competition from online channels [22]. - The price index for national baijiu showed a slight decrease of 0.35% in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in maintaining price stability amid aggressive promotional strategies [22]. - Manufacturers are facing pressure to manage inventory while navigating the complexities of pricing strategies in a competitive market environment [22].