Group 1 - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with the white liquor index dropping 4.8% this week and a year-to-date decline of 17.4% [1][2] - Several companies, including Gujing Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yanghe, have seen their stock prices hit new lows for the year, with Gujing Gongjiu's stock price reaching a five-year low [2][3] - The decline in high-end liquor prices is attributed to limited consumption scenarios, increased pressure on channels for cash flow, and the impact of e-commerce subsidies [1][3] Group 2 - The basic performance of the industry is under pressure, with Moutai's bottle price decreasing by 70 yuan week-on-week, and the original box price down by 90 yuan [3] - The second quarter is expected to show weak fundamentals, with inventory levels increasing post-Duanwu Festival and companies focusing on promotions and destocking [3][4] - Despite the current challenges, there are three positive factors that may support a more optimistic outlook for the industry, including the stabilization of Moutai's wholesale price and the proactive strategies of leading companies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and a net profit of 3.41 billion RMB, up 8.8% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.10 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.2% increase, with a net profit of 1.64 billion RMB, up 7.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5% to 12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, focusing on maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.54 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 29.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points [4]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 32.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 0.6 percentage points [4]. Product Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from Special A+ and Special A categories was 7.49 billion RMB and 3.35 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 17%. Sales volume increased by 27% and 26%, while ton prices decreased by 10% and 8% [3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue from Special A+ and Special A categories was 3.17 billion RMB and 1.65 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 7% and 17% [3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the company generated 10.55 billion RMB from domestic sales and 930 million RMB from external sales, with year-on-year growth of 13% and 27%, respectively [3]. - For Q1 2025, domestic and external sales were 4.64 billion RMB and 440 million RMB, with year-on-year growth of 8% and 19% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 12% and 17% reduction in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected revenue growth of 8.3% in 2025 and 8.5% in 2026 [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.90 RMB, 3.17 RMB, and 3.57 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.0, 14.6, and 13.0 [5].