在今日早盘交易中，现货白银涨至每盎司65美元以上，突破此前纪录高位，创2025年大宗商品中最强劲 的反弹之一。据全球调查显示，白银市场连续第五年出现结构性短缺，原因是开采产出仍然受限，而可 再生能源、电子产品和其他工业部门的消费继续扩大。国信期货分析师指出，随着新能源、电子制造等 产业的快速发展，白银的工业应用场景持续拓宽，加剧市场对白银供需缺口的担忧，吸引资金基于中长 期逻辑进行布局。 光大期货表示，周二晚间将公布非农就业数据，或指引未来美联储货币政策，审慎乐观看待。白银仍保 持强势，虽有金银比回归预期，但连创新高且快速拉涨之势大有挤仓意味，关注近期的消息面。中金认 为，2025年国际贸易局势打破全球宏观环境稳态，受益于不确定性环境中的确定性溢价，国际金价、银 价双双上涨。与过去三年有所不同的是，今年贵金属价格强势突破由以欧美ETF为代表的周期性购买需 求主导，市场表现为白银涨幅反超黄金。 责任编辑：卢昱君 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中国白银集团（00815）早盘股价上涨4.41%，现报0.71港元，成交额1027.21万港元。 热点栏目 自选股 数 ...

以下文章来源于财经天下WEEKLY ，作者财经天下 财经天下WEEKLY . 《财经天下》周刊官方账号，提供有品质的深度报道，讲述中国企业在时代浪潮中的精彩故事。 本文转载自财经天下WEEKLY 值班 编辑｜ 宝珠 视觉 | 顾芗 今年以来，伦敦现货白银累计涨幅达116%，同期黄金涨幅只有61%。虽然白银上涨动能强劲，但对于普 通投资者来说，投资白银并没有黄金那样方便。另外，经过大幅上涨之后，白银的投资风险已不容忽 视。 白银，涨疯了 "我们要不要买点白银啊？" 这几天，在南京工作的张璇，下班后总会和丈夫反复讨论这个问题。原因很简单，最近白银涨得实在太 猛了。家里正好有点闲钱，她很想买点白银。 张璇的丈夫在教育行业工作，下班后最大的爱好是打游戏，对投资理财几乎没有概念。反倒是张璇，平 时会主动关注财经新闻，家里的资金安排基本由她负责。 张璇的犹豫，其实也是最近不少投资者心理的真实写照。 从行情本身来看，白银的确称得上"涨疯了"。今年以来，国际白银价格持续走高。12月9日，伦敦现货白 银盘中首次突破60美元/盎司，最高触及60.82美元/盎司；12月10日继续刷新纪录，一度刷新历史高点至 61.94美元/盎司， ...

作者丨叶麦穗 最新消息显示，美联储决定将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%—3.75%区间，为年内连续第三次降息，年内累计已下调75基点。美联储主席鲍 威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储将 "观望" 后再采取进一步行动，但基本排除加息可能。 白银通常与黄金同向波动，但由于其市场规模更小，对美元的变化更为敏感，波动性也更强。由于白银的价格远低于黄金，吸引了寻求更低 成本避险资产的投资者，同时在工业领域的应用也十分广泛。 编辑丨包芳鸣 白银成为今年"领涨先锋"，年内累计涨幅逼近120%，特别是从下半年开始呈现加速上涨态势。 截至12月11日16：20， 现货白银价格突破62美元/盎司，盘中最高至62.884美元/盎司，再度刷新历史新高。 与此同时，COMEX白银盘中突 破63美元/盎司，一度摸高63.25美元/盎司；上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格最高涨至14655元/千克，涨幅超过5%，上述两个品种价格也 刷新历史新高 。 至此，白银也成为今年顶流投资品之一。 截至北京时间11日19：25左右，现货白银报62.386 美元/盎司。 年度涨幅近1 2 0% 嘉盛集团（Gain Capital）旗下外汇交易平台市 ...

12月9日，白银长期的供需缺口正在发酵成结构性价格驱动力，Mhmarkets迈汇认为，2025 年以来的实 物短缺并非偶发，而是多年供应萎缩与需求扩张叠加的结果。当投资需求猛增，原本就偏紧的市场更易 被放大，从而形成价格突破的重要背景。 白银在初夏突破 35 美元，被视为市场情绪反转的关键点。过去十年矿供给减少约 8000 万盎司，总供应 规模仅约 10 亿盎司，在贵金属中显得十分紧凑。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，持续减少的矿供给意味着行业 未能发现或投产足够的新矿，大型银矿稀缺的结构在未来几年难以改善。与此同时，电子制造、光伏发 电、电动车、AI 数据中心等行业的渗透率不断提升，使工业需求形成长期拉力。需求不断扩展，而供 应跟不上，成为白银基本面的核心矛盾。 另一方面，行业内部的资源错配也加剧了未来的供应压力。过去几年，部分矿企在白银低价期调整重 心，转向更易盈利的金矿项目，使得白银资产布局被弱化。今年出现的几起并购动作说明行业正试图重 新夺回白银资源，但优质矿产的稀缺性决定了其恢复速度较慢。审批、融资与建设周期基本都在 5–10 年区间，这意味着供给无法快速响应价格上升。 库存端同样难言宽松。伦敦、纽约以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the silver market, particularly highlighting the impact of the CME trading halt on silver prices, which surged significantly compared to gold. It emphasizes the structural weaknesses in the silver market and the underlying supply-demand dynamics that could sustain bullish trends in silver prices moving forward [6][9][29]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The CME trading halt led to a liquidity crisis, causing silver prices to spike by 6.49%, while gold only saw a modest increase of 1.29% [6][7]. - Silver's market depth is significantly weaker than that of gold, making it more susceptible to liquidity shocks. The global silver ETF inventory is less than 30,000 tons, compared to over 2,100 tons for gold [10][19]. - The silver market's "directional force" was already bullish prior to the CME halt, which amplified the upward price movement when trading resumed [12][29]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Over 50% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, with a projected supply deficit of approximately 0.95 to 1.18 billion ounces in late 2025 [19][24]. - The supply of silver is expected to grow only about 1% in 2025, while demand remains strong, leading to a continuous supply-demand imbalance [24][28]. - Recent disruptions in copper mining operations are anticipated to further reduce silver supply, as silver is often a byproduct of copper mining [24][28]. Group 3: Financial Attributes - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has strengthened silver's financial appeal, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December 2025 [22][23]. - The article notes that silver behaves like "half gold and half copper," benefiting from both its monetary and industrial properties [20][21]. Group 4: Inventory and Price Volatility - The decline in deliverable silver inventory has exacerbated price volatility, with major markets like Shanghai and COMEX reporting near historical lows in silver stock levels [28]. - The article highlights that the shrinking inventory of deliverable silver is a critical factor influencing price elasticity, as it directly affects the market's ability to buffer supply-demand shocks [26][28]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the bullish trend in silver is likely to continue due to persistent supply shortages and favorable financial conditions, although it warns of potential risks if supply increases or demand falls short of expectations [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - Silver futures and spot prices have reached historical highs in 2023 due to a combination of supply-demand gaps and expectations of interest rate cuts, with significant price increases outpacing gold [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, 2023, London spot silver and futures prices were $57.49/oz and $59.14/oz, reflecting increases of 95.5% and 97.8% year-to-date, surpassing gold's price increase of 60.18% for spot and 60.16% for futures [2]. - In Shanghai, silver spot and futures prices have also seen substantial increases of 74.46% and 74.39% respectively, outpacing gold's price growth [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has reached its lowest point since August 2021, indicating that silver's price increase is relatively higher than that of gold [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - The total open interest in silver futures and options has risen to its highest point of the year, driven by bullish sentiment amid expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]. - As of October 14, 2025, total open interest in COMEX silver futures and options was 241,700 contracts, a 35.08% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is significantly higher than for gold, with silver accounting for 54.76% of total demand in 2023, compared to gold's 6.38% [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Global silver supply has remained relatively stable, with a total supply of 1.011 billion ounces in 2023, while demand has outstripped this supply, resulting in a negative supply gap of 184 million ounces [6]. - China's silver market has shown signs of accelerating inventory depletion, with a significant increase in silver spot outflows and a sharp decline in futures inventory [5][6]. - As of December 1, 2023, COMEX silver futures inventory was 456 million ounces, up 42.99% year-to-date, but down 9.65% from the year's peak [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expectation of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could enhance silver's investment and speculative appeal, while the growing industrial demand for silver in technology applications may further support its price [6][7]. - The anticipated peak in silver demand for solar panel production is projected to be around 7,000 tons, although current usage remains high [7].

Core Viewpoint - Silver futures and spot prices have reached historical highs in 2023 due to a combination of supply-demand gaps and expectations of interest rate cuts, with significant price increases outpacing gold [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, 2023, London spot silver was priced at $57.49 per ounce, and futures at $59.14 per ounce, marking increases of 95.5% and 97.8% respectively since the beginning of the year [2]. - Shanghai silver spot and futures prices have also seen substantial increases of 74.46% and 74.39% respectively, surpassing the gains in gold during the same period [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to 73.73 for spot prices and 72.11 for futures, indicating that silver's price increase is relatively higher than that of gold [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - The total open interest in silver futures and options has reached its highest point of the year, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among investors, with a 35.08% increase since the beginning of the year [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is robust, accounting for 54.76% of total demand in 2023, compared to only 6.38% for gold, highlighting silver's stronger industrial properties [3]. - The demand for silver is expected to grow due to its applications in technology, particularly in solar panels and mobile devices, which are driving its price increase [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Global silver supply has remained relatively stable, with a total supply of 10.11 billion ounces in 2023, while demand continues to rise, leading to a supply-demand gap of 1.84 billion ounces [4][5]. - China's silver market is experiencing a significant reduction in futures inventory, indicating a potential acceleration in inventory depletion and future restocking needs [4][5]. - The supply of recycled silver has been declining since reaching a peak in 2011, contributing to the overall inelasticity of silver supply [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to enhance silver's investment appeal, while the growing industrial demand for silver will support its price in the medium to long term [5]. - Market predictions indicate an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could further influence silver prices [5]. - The demand for silver in solar panel production is projected to peak around 7,000 tons, but current usage remains high, suggesting continued strong demand [5].

*免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 盛达资源：公司为国内白银龙头，在夯实存量白银矿山项目经营的基础上，白银与黄金资源扩张布局并 举，有望进一步增厚业绩空间。 兴业银锡：公司收购宇邦矿业，白银储量再上台阶。 11月28日白银价格迎来大幅飙升，内外盘白银价格纷纷刷新历史新高，其中COMEX白银期货最高触及 57.245美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银最高达56.78美元/盎司，国内沪银期货主力合约最高升至13239元/千克 13。截至目前，其年内累计涨幅已高达90%，成为年内表现极为强势的品种之一。 证券时报援引分析师观点称，白银价格强势的核心驱动来自宏观货币政策预期与基本面供需结构的共 振。目前市场对美联储12月降息25个基点的概率预期已升至85%以上，远高于一周前的40%左右。这种 宽松预期推动美元指数走弱，既降低了白银的持有成本，又刺激资金大量流入贵金属板块。供需方面， 今年是全球白银连续第5年出现供应缺口，缺口规模估计达9500万盎司。光伏装机量维持高位、新能源 汽车渗透率提升，长期拉动白银工业需求，且2026年白银供给预计持续短缺，为银价提供了刚性支撑。 公司方面，据证券时报表示， *风险提示：股市有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The short - term decline of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract does not reverse the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to take a short - term short position, and the contract still has upward potential in the medium and long term [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations tomorrow [6] - It is recommended to avoid the short - term trading of gold for now [11] - Iron ore may experience a significant adjustment if it breaks below the important support level again, and the supply is expected to be loose in the long term [14][15] - For glass, the stabilization signal needs to be observed, and the subsequent drivers depend on policy - side stimuli [19][20] - There is a short - term long opportunity for eggs [23] - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level fluctuations [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver 2512) - The contract has been in a continuous correction recently, with a closing decline of 3.86% on October 22, and the settlement price dropped to 11,327 yuan [3] - The short - term decline is due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking by funds, and overbought technical indicators [3] - The long - term support is solid, with a continuous four - year deficit in global silver supply and demand, and the industrial demand from photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is growing [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices opened lower, with a volatile trend throughout the day, and the trading volume shrank significantly [6] - The global trade tension has temporarily eased, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand, and gold had its largest single - day decline in 12 years [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently highly volatile, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and the molten iron output may decline periodically [14] - The supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents in the short term, but the supply is expected to be loose in the long term with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week [20] - The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimuli and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound [23] - Based on the current price and cost, the egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [27] - The domestic port inventory remains high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous, so the pulp is expected to run weakly [27]

Core Insights - India, as the largest silver consumer globally, is experiencing a surge in investor demand, leading to a significant premium of 10% over international silver prices, which has resulted in the suspension of new subscriptions for physically-backed silver ETFs [1][7] - The upcoming Diwali festival is driving increased demand for silver jewelry, further exacerbating the supply shortage [3] - Global silver demand has consistently outstripped supply over the past four years, depleting previous excess inventories, and this trend is expected to continue through 2025 due to limited production responses to price increases [4] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of silver is constrained as approximately 70% of silver is a byproduct of other metal mining, limiting the ability to ramp up production in response to rising prices [4] - Industrial demand, particularly from renewable energy and high-tech sectors, continues to grow, contributing to the structural shortage of silver [4] - In the first eight months of 2025, India's silver imports fell by 42% year-on-year to 3,302 tons, while investment demand surged to record levels, depleting previously accumulated inventories [5] Group 2: Challenges in Importing Silver - India typically relies on a significant premium of spot prices over futures prices to incentivize banks to increase imports, but limited supply from major producing countries and logistical bottlenecks have tightened the physical silver market [6] - The silver leasing rate in London has risen above 30%, indicating increased costs for acquiring physical silver [6] Group 3: Impact on ETFs and Market Participants - Indian silver ETFs saw record inflows of 53.42 billion rupees in September, but high premiums forced them to pause new subscriptions to avoid passing on inflated costs to investors [7] - The shortage of silver has hindered manufacturers' ability to produce silverware, and the expectation of rising prices has led to a reluctance among investors to sell their existing silver assets, further tightening supply [8]