金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 3 / 2 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货合约价格上涨，后续怎么看？ 沪银短期高波动震荡，中期逢低做多，不追高。 贵金属维持震荡，日盘时间相对有支撑，美股开盘后跟随股市出现短线跳水，随后再次流动性修复后出现回升。 现阶段的贵金属行情基于叙事，高位行情下易出现结利行情。现阶段几大叙事尚未出现进一步发酵，黄金作为 主要的关联资产在跟随美股一定程度上行后出现高位的结利回落。在当下叙事的主导行情下，关注资产的关联 性仍是关键。 短期来看，沪银将跟随伦敦银在70-100美元/盎司区间宽幅震荡，对应国内价格核心支撑在19000元/千克，强 压力区25000元/千克。 不盲目追高，需警惕地缘情绪降温或美元反弹引发的快速回调，操作以短线高抛低吸、轻仓带止损为主。 中期逻辑仍偏多，核心支撑源于白银供需缺口持续存在，光伏、AI服务器等工业需求回暖，以及美联储降息预 期下实际利率下行的宏观利好。再分批布局多单，严格控制仓位与杠杆风险。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai silver futures is high - volatility shock, and the medium - term strategy is to go long on dips without chasing high prices [3]. - A - shares showed an overall oscillating market, with shrinking trading volume, and the 60 - minute chart maintained a box - type oscillation [8]. - Gold should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [10]. - Iron ore should be viewed with a bearish bias, considering supply and demand and market trends [12][13]. - Glass should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation [16]. - Methanol is unlikely to continue a sharp rise due to its supply - demand pattern [18]. - Paper pulp has several potential positive factors, including the risk of a French pulp mill's bankruptcy, the rebound of European and American coniferous pulp prices, and the long - term positive drive of a new domestic national standard [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - On February 25, the main contract of Shanghai silver opened high and closed with a gain of over 4.57%, mainly due to the sharp rise of the overseas market during the Spring Festival and the subsequent catch - up in the domestic market. In the short term, it will oscillate widely between 70 - 100 US dollars per ounce in the London silver market, corresponding to a core support of 19,000 yuan per kilogram and a strong resistance area of 25,000 yuan per kilogram in the domestic market. In the medium term, the logic is bullish, supported by the supply - demand gap, industrial demand recovery, and macro - economic factors [4][5]. A - shares - The overall A - share market showed an oscillating trend on the day, with shrinking trading volume, and the 60 - minute chart maintained a box - type oscillation [8]. Gold - Affected by the overseas market's rise during the holiday, gold opened significantly higher and oscillated throughout the day, and should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [10]. Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments are normal, and there is an expectation of loose supply in the long - term due to the mine's production capacity release. On the demand side, although steel mills' resumption of production after the festival may drive demand, the start of terminal demand still needs time. Technically, the bearish trend remains [12][13]. Glass - The daily melting volume has slightly decreased, and the factory inventory has increased again during the holiday due to the seasonal off - season. The resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival needs attention. The trend is unclear in the near term, and it should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. Methanol - Methanol is unlikely to continue a sharp rise because its supply - demand pattern does not support continuous price increases. The domestic methanol plant operating rate remains high, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports after the festival, which suppresses prices [18]. Paper Pulp - There are three positive factors for paper pulp: the potential bankruptcy of a French pulp mill (to be verified in March), the rebound of European and American coniferous pulp prices, and the long - term positive drive of a new domestic national standard [21].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 2 6 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 沪银期货合约价格上涨，后续怎么看？ 沪银短期高波动震荡，中期逢低做多，不追高。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2月25日沪银主力合约高开高走，收盘涨幅超4.57%， 主因是春节期间外盘受中东地缘冲突与美联储降息预期推动大涨，国内市场节后集中补涨，资金涌入、成交 量显著放大 。 短期来看，沪银将跟随伦敦银在70-100美元/盎司区间宽幅震荡，对应国内价格核心支撑在19000元/千克， 强压力区25000元/千克。 不盲目追高，需警惕地缘情绪降温或美元反弹引发的快速回调，操作以短线高抛低吸、轻仓带止损为主。 中期逻辑仍偏多，核心支撑源于白银供需缺口持续存在，光伏、AI服务器等工业需求回暖，以及美联储降息 预期下实际利率下行的宏观利好。再分批布局多单，严格控制仓位与杠杆风险。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES ...

沪银短期高波动震荡，中期逢低做多，不追高。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2月24日沪银主力合约高开高走，收盘涨幅超12.84%， 主因是春节期间外盘受中东地缘冲突与美联储降息预期推动大涨，国内市场节后集中补涨，资金涌入、成交 量显著放大 。 金信期货日刊 短期来看，沪银将跟随伦敦银在70-100美元/盎司区间宽幅震荡，对应国内价格核心支撑在19000元/千克， 强压力区25000元/千克。 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 2 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 沪银期货合约价格上涨，后续怎么看？ GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 不盲目追高，需警惕地缘情绪降温或美元反弹引发的快速回调，操作以短线高抛低吸、轻仓带止损为主。 中期逻辑仍偏多，核心支撑源于白银供需缺口持续存在，光伏、AI服务器等工业需求回暖，以及美联储降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical risks, and strong fundamentals in the silver market, making it essential for investors to understand the underlying dynamics of this market movement [1][5][10]. Market Performance - On February 11, gold prices rose significantly, with London gold reaching over $5100 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.5%, while COMEX gold surged over 2% [3][4]. - Silver prices experienced an even more dramatic increase, with London silver rising over 6% to reach $86 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 3.79% [4][6]. Institutional Insights - Major financial institutions, including Societe Generale, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank, have raised their gold price targets, indicating a bullish outlook for the precious metals market [5][6]. - Societe Generale's commodity strategist David Wilson stated that the current gold price surge is justified due to persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, predicting a potential rise to $6000 per ounce by year-end [6]. Economic Indicators - A key driver of the recent price surge was disappointing U.S. retail sales data, which raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and increased attractiveness of gold and silver as safe-haven assets [7][9]. - The market adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 30% probability of three cuts this year, influencing the demand for gold and silver [9][10]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and uncertainties in Europe, have led to increased demand for gold and silver as safe-haven investments [10][11]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with countries like China and Poland making significant purchases, signaling confidence in gold's long-term value [11]. Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand gap, with projections indicating a shortfall of 67 million ounces by 2026, driven by industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles [12][13]. - The industrial demand for silver, which constitutes over 60% of total demand, is expected to continue growing, further supporting price increases [13]. Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in price movements, with many investors rushing to buy gold and silver amid fears of missing out on potential gains, amplifying the price surge [14][18]. - The emotional aspect of trading can lead to significant volatility, especially for inexperienced investors who may be tempted to follow market trends without proper analysis [18]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to approach gold and silver investments with caution, focusing on long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [25][27]. - Recommendations include diversifying investments, avoiding high-leverage trading, and being wary of potential scams in the precious metals market [20][22].

以下文章来源于东针商略 ，作者东针商略 东针商略 . 聚焦科技趋势，分享商业新知，关注世界变化，一起思考有价值的内容，在沸腾的时代里，并肩成长。 本文来自微信公众号： 东针商略 ，作者：东针商略，题图来自：视觉中国 白银价格历史上首次突破每盎司100美元大关，年内涨幅超过44%，创下历史新高。这一剧烈波动背 后，是白银市场连续多年且持续扩大的供需缺口，标志着白银正从传统的金融附属品转向由实体产业 主导的关键战略资源。 根据世界白银协会数据，全球白银市场自2021年以来已陷入持续的结构性赤字。2025年供需缺口接 近3亿盎司，创下历史最高纪录，而2026年这一缺口预计将进一步扩大。 推动需求爆发的核心力量来自工业领域，尤其是光伏、电动汽车与AI基础设施的快速增长。目前工 业用银已占白银总需求的60%以上，其中光伏产业的需求在过去五年增长超过1.6倍，白银因其不可 替代的导电与稳定性，成为绿色能源转型中难以绕过的关键材料。 然而，与需求端的强劲增长形成尖锐矛盾的是，白银的供应体系却呈现刚性约束。 全球超过70%的白银产量来自铜、铅、锌等金属的伴生矿，其产量取决于主金属的投资周期，对银价 变化反应迟钝。 矿产银产量 ...

白银价格历史上首次突破每盎司100美元大关，年内涨幅超过44%，创下历史新高。这一剧烈波动背 后，是白银市场连续多年且持续扩大的供需缺口，标志着白银正从传统的金融附属品转向由实体产业主 导的关键战略资源。 根据世界白银协会数据，全球白银市场自2021年以来已陷入持续的结构性赤字。2025年供需缺口接近3 亿盎司，创下历史最高纪录，而2026年这一缺口预计将进一步扩大。 推动需求爆发的核心力量来自工业领域，尤其是光伏、电动汽车与AI基础设施的快速增长。目前工业 用银已占白银总需求的60%以上，其中光伏产业的需求在过去五年增长超过1.6倍，白银因其不可替代 的导电与稳定性，成为绿色能源转型中难以绕过的关键材料。 然而，与需求端的强劲增长形成尖锐矛盾的是，白银的供应体系却呈现刚性约束。 全球超过70%的白银产量来自铜、铅、锌等金属的伴生矿，其产量取决于主金属的投资周期，对银价变 化反应迟钝。矿产银产量已连续第五年下降，短期内难以放量。 与此同时，全球显性库存持续消耗，伦敦及上海交易所的库存均处于多年低位，仅能覆盖约1.2个月的 消费量，远低于安全水平。实物紧张甚至导致伦敦白银租赁利率飙升至2.5%，反映出市场现货的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver is transitioning from being perceived as "poor man's gold" to a critical industrial material due to a persistent supply-demand gap driven by key industries like photovoltaics and electrification [5][6][48]. Group 1: Silver's Market Dynamics - Historically, silver was undervalued due to its abundant supply and diverse applications, leading to a lack of serious market consideration for its scarcity [5][6]. - Since 2021, the global silver market has experienced a physical supply-demand gap, primarily driven by rapid demand growth in industries such as photovoltaics and high-end electronics, while supply has struggled to keep pace [6][44]. - Over 70% of global silver production comes from by-products of other metals, making its supply response to price signals slow and limited [7][38]. Group 2: Demand Structure - In 2024, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.164 billion ounces (approximately 3.62 million tons), with industrial demand accounting for 681 million ounces (about 58%), jewelry and silverware demand at 263 million ounces (around 23%), and investment demand at 191 million ounces (approximately 16%) [15]. - The behavior of these demand categories is distinct: industrial demand is tied to the industrial cycle, jewelry demand is highly price-sensitive, and investment demand fluctuates with macroeconomic sentiment [16]. Group 3: Industrial Applications - The photovoltaic sector is a key driver of silver demand, with actual demand expected to reach 198 million ounces in 2024, a 1.6-fold increase since 2019, representing about 17% of total silver demand [27]. - Electric vehicles and AI infrastructure are also contributing to silver demand, with the average silver usage in a traditional vehicle being 15-20 grams, while a new energy vehicle typically uses 30-40 grams [30]. Group 4: Supply Constraints - Global silver mine production is estimated at 820 million ounces in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of less than 1% [37]. - The structure of silver supply has remained largely unchanged over the past two decades, with primary silver production accounting for only about 228 million ounces, or less than 30% of total production [39]. Group 5: Market Repositioning - Silver is no longer just a shadow of gold; it is now recognized as a critical material with real and sustained demand, difficult-to-replace applications, and highly constrained supply growth [48][50]. - The market's perception of silver is shifting from a financial asset to a key functional material, reflecting its importance in various industrial applications [49].

1. Report Overview - Report Name: Hualian Futures Silver Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 18, 2025 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022773 [1] - Qualification Number: F03118676 [1] 2. Market Performance - Price Increase: In 2025, the cumulative increases were 148% and 129% respectively [1] - Spread: Last week, the spread between domestic and foreign silver futures continued to climb, closing at a maximum spread of 2330; the London spot gold - silver ratio fell below 50 during the week and finally closed at 51.02 [1] 3. US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.4 and the previous value of 48.2 [1] - Employment: In December, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [1] - Inflation: In December, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the same as in November, in line with market expectations; the core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, the same as in November, lower than the expected 2.7% [1] - Interest Rate: Last week, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note rose 6 basis points, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen [1] 4. Silver Supply and Demand - Supply - demand Gap: In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, with the market in a state of supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year [1] - Investment Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.444% [1] - Inventory: The LBMA inventory has dropped to a historical low. As of December, there were about 27,817 tons of silver inventory, but most of it is silver physically linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [1] 5. Market Views and Strategies - View: Last week, silver rose strongly and then adjusted, remaining at a high level overall. The market's safe - haven demand support remains strong. The supply side of silver has significant growth difficulties, while the demand side has obvious increments. The structural trend of silver has not changed, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to remain strong [9] - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions in AG2604 in the medium term [9] 6. Risk and Disclaimer - Risk: The report reminds investors to carefully judge the accuracy and integrity of the information and bear investment risks independently [1][11][13] - Disclaimer: The information in the report comes from publicly available information, and the report does not guarantee the completeness and authenticity of the information. It does not constitute the final basis for buying or selling relevant futures varieties [91]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, driven by multiple factors, indicating its potential as a strong investment opportunity in the current economic climate [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - International spot silver reached $79.819 per ounce (approximately 19.20 yuan per gram), with a daily increase of 4.11% [4]. - Domestic silver (T+D) prices hit 19,400 yuan per kilogram (19.40 yuan per gram), rising by 4.53% [4]. - The Shanghai Futures silver contract surged to 19,438 yuan per kilogram (19.44 yuan per gram), marking a 6.19% increase, leading the market [4]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a weaker dollar and enhancing silver's appeal as a precious metal [4]. - Heightened global geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, have driven investors towards silver as a safe haven [4]. - A historical supply-demand gap in the silver market, with a reported deficit of 320 million ounces in 2025, particularly due to surging demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors, has provided strong fundamental support for silver prices [4]. - Speculative funds have significantly increased their positions in the futures market and silver ETFs, reflecting a surge in retail investor enthusiasm [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For aggressive investors, it is advised to avoid blindly chasing prices and to consider entering positions when prices pull back to the range of 19.0-19.2 yuan per gram [3]. - Conservative investors are encouraged to adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach by investing in silver ETFs or physical silver bars monthly to smooth out costs and benefit from long-term industry growth [8]. - For consumers and collectors, it is recommended to purchase silver bars with S999 purity from reputable sources and to be cautious with silver jewelry due to high craftsmanship costs [8]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario (40% probability): If interest rate cuts are implemented and geopolitical tensions persist, silver prices may challenge new highs above 20.5 yuan per gram [8]. - Volatile Scenario (50% probability): The most likely outcome is that silver prices will oscillate between 19.0 and 20.0 yuan per gram, digesting recent gains while awaiting new directional signals [8]. - Downward Scenario (10% probability): In the event of a significant macroeconomic shift, silver prices could retreat below 18 yuan per gram for a deeper correction [8].