以下文章来源于东针商略 ，作者东针商略 东针商略 . 聚焦科技趋势，分享商业新知，关注世界变化，一起思考有价值的内容，在沸腾的时代里，并肩成长。 本文来自微信公众号： 东针商略 ，作者：东针商略，题图来自：视觉中国 白银价格历史上首次突破每盎司100美元大关，年内涨幅超过44%，创下历史新高。这一剧烈波动背 后，是白银市场连续多年且持续扩大的供需缺口，标志着白银正从传统的金融附属品转向由实体产业 主导的关键战略资源。 根据世界白银协会数据，全球白银市场自2021年以来已陷入持续的结构性赤字。2025年供需缺口接 近3亿盎司，创下历史最高纪录，而2026年这一缺口预计将进一步扩大。 推动需求爆发的核心力量来自工业领域，尤其是光伏、电动汽车与AI基础设施的快速增长。目前工 业用银已占白银总需求的60%以上，其中光伏产业的需求在过去五年增长超过1.6倍，白银因其不可 替代的导电与稳定性，成为绿色能源转型中难以绕过的关键材料。 然而，与需求端的强劲增长形成尖锐矛盾的是，白银的供应体系却呈现刚性约束。 全球超过70%的白银产量来自铜、铅、锌等金属的伴生矿，其产量取决于主金属的投资周期，对银价 变化反应迟钝。 矿产银产量 ...

白银价格历史上首次突破每盎司100美元大关，年内涨幅超过44%，创下历史新高。这一剧烈波动背 后，是白银市场连续多年且持续扩大的供需缺口，标志着白银正从传统的金融附属品转向由实体产业主 导的关键战略资源。 根据世界白银协会数据，全球白银市场自2021年以来已陷入持续的结构性赤字。2025年供需缺口接近3 亿盎司，创下历史最高纪录，而2026年这一缺口预计将进一步扩大。 推动需求爆发的核心力量来自工业领域，尤其是光伏、电动汽车与AI基础设施的快速增长。目前工业 用银已占白银总需求的60%以上，其中光伏产业的需求在过去五年增长超过1.6倍，白银因其不可替代 的导电与稳定性，成为绿色能源转型中难以绕过的关键材料。 然而，与需求端的强劲增长形成尖锐矛盾的是，白银的供应体系却呈现刚性约束。 全球超过70%的白银产量来自铜、铅、锌等金属的伴生矿，其产量取决于主金属的投资周期，对银价变 化反应迟钝。矿产银产量已连续第五年下降，短期内难以放量。 与此同时，全球显性库存持续消耗，伦敦及上海交易所的库存均处于多年低位，仅能覆盖约1.2个月的 消费量，远低于安全水平。实物紧张甚至导致伦敦白银租赁利率飙升至2.5%，反映出市场现货的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver is transitioning from being perceived as "poor man's gold" to a critical industrial material due to a persistent supply-demand gap driven by key industries like photovoltaics and electrification [5][6][48]. Group 1: Silver's Market Dynamics - Historically, silver was undervalued due to its abundant supply and diverse applications, leading to a lack of serious market consideration for its scarcity [5][6]. - Since 2021, the global silver market has experienced a physical supply-demand gap, primarily driven by rapid demand growth in industries such as photovoltaics and high-end electronics, while supply has struggled to keep pace [6][44]. - Over 70% of global silver production comes from by-products of other metals, making its supply response to price signals slow and limited [7][38]. Group 2: Demand Structure - In 2024, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.164 billion ounces (approximately 3.62 million tons), with industrial demand accounting for 681 million ounces (about 58%), jewelry and silverware demand at 263 million ounces (around 23%), and investment demand at 191 million ounces (approximately 16%) [15]. - The behavior of these demand categories is distinct: industrial demand is tied to the industrial cycle, jewelry demand is highly price-sensitive, and investment demand fluctuates with macroeconomic sentiment [16]. Group 3: Industrial Applications - The photovoltaic sector is a key driver of silver demand, with actual demand expected to reach 198 million ounces in 2024, a 1.6-fold increase since 2019, representing about 17% of total silver demand [27]. - Electric vehicles and AI infrastructure are also contributing to silver demand, with the average silver usage in a traditional vehicle being 15-20 grams, while a new energy vehicle typically uses 30-40 grams [30]. Group 4: Supply Constraints - Global silver mine production is estimated at 820 million ounces in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of less than 1% [37]. - The structure of silver supply has remained largely unchanged over the past two decades, with primary silver production accounting for only about 228 million ounces, or less than 30% of total production [39]. Group 5: Market Repositioning - Silver is no longer just a shadow of gold; it is now recognized as a critical material with real and sustained demand, difficult-to-replace applications, and highly constrained supply growth [48][50]. - The market's perception of silver is shifting from a financial asset to a key functional material, reflecting its importance in various industrial applications [49].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货白银周报 短线波动加剧，地缘支撑较强 20250118 作者：曾可 交易咨询号：Z0022773 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 白银走势：上周白银强势上涨后有所调整，整体高位运行，伦敦银周内突破90美元/盎司整数关口，最终收报90.134；受外 盘驱动，沪银主力合约将新高刷新至23688元/千克。伦敦银和沪银周度涨幅分别为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, driven by multiple factors, indicating its potential as a strong investment opportunity in the current economic climate [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - International spot silver reached $79.819 per ounce (approximately 19.20 yuan per gram), with a daily increase of 4.11% [4]. - Domestic silver (T+D) prices hit 19,400 yuan per kilogram (19.40 yuan per gram), rising by 4.53% [4]. - The Shanghai Futures silver contract surged to 19,438 yuan per kilogram (19.44 yuan per gram), marking a 6.19% increase, leading the market [4]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a weaker dollar and enhancing silver's appeal as a precious metal [4]. - Heightened global geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, have driven investors towards silver as a safe haven [4]. - A historical supply-demand gap in the silver market, with a reported deficit of 320 million ounces in 2025, particularly due to surging demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors, has provided strong fundamental support for silver prices [4]. - Speculative funds have significantly increased their positions in the futures market and silver ETFs, reflecting a surge in retail investor enthusiasm [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For aggressive investors, it is advised to avoid blindly chasing prices and to consider entering positions when prices pull back to the range of 19.0-19.2 yuan per gram [3]. - Conservative investors are encouraged to adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach by investing in silver ETFs or physical silver bars monthly to smooth out costs and benefit from long-term industry growth [8]. - For consumers and collectors, it is recommended to purchase silver bars with S999 purity from reputable sources and to be cautious with silver jewelry due to high craftsmanship costs [8]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario (40% probability): If interest rate cuts are implemented and geopolitical tensions persist, silver prices may challenge new highs above 20.5 yuan per gram [8]. - Volatile Scenario (50% probability): The most likely outcome is that silver prices will oscillate between 19.0 and 20.0 yuan per gram, digesting recent gains while awaiting new directional signals [8]. - Downward Scenario (10% probability): In the event of a significant macroeconomic shift, silver prices could retreat below 18 yuan per gram for a deeper correction [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, silver showed high - level fluctuations. London silver once fell below the 10 - day moving average during the week, then stabilized on Friday and tested the $80 mark, eventually closing at $79.9. The Shanghai silver main contract closed at 19,438 yuan/kg in the night session on Saturday morning. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were both 9.7%, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [8]. - The US manufacturing PMI in December was 47.9, lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was significantly revised downward, but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [8]. - The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - Last week, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index continued to rebound slightly [8]. - In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, and the market is in a supply shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. The inventory of LBMA has dropped to a historical low, and the tradable silver inventory is tight [8]. - The silver market is expected to remain strong in the medium and long term under the triple - drive of strategic resources, financial attributes, and industrial attributes. It is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position in the medium term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Silver Trends**: London silver and Shanghai silver had significant weekly and cumulative gains in 2025. London silver showed high - level fluctuations and finally closed at $79.9, while Shanghai silver closed at 19,438 yuan/kg [8]. - **US Economy**: The manufacturing PMI was weak, non - farm payrolls were lower than expected with previous data revisions, but the unemployment rate dropped [8]. - **Inflation**: US CPI and core CPI in November were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: There is a large supply - demand gap in the silver market, and the tradable inventory is tight. The position of the largest silver ETF decreased week - on - week [8]. - **Spreads**: The spread between domestic and foreign silver futures reached a high of 1,762 yuan and finally closed at 820 yuan, and the gold - silver ratio in London spot reached 56.43 [8]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The silver market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position [9]. Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts show the trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver [13][17]. US Economy - Charts present data on US GDP, PMI, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate [24][25]. Inflation - Charts display US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE data [30]. Interest Rates - Charts show short - term and medium - long - term US Treasury bond yields and real interest rates [37][41]. Fundamentals - A table shows the global silver supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025F, including supply (mining production, recycling, etc.) and demand (industrial, jewelry, etc.) [45]. - Charts show silver ETF positions, COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories [46][49][53]. US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - Charts show the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and other exchange rates such as pound - US dollar and US dollar - Canadian dollar [59][62][67]. Silver Spreads - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures, spreads between domestic and foreign silver, silver basis, and gold - silver ratio [76][84][89].

Summary of Silver Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The silver market is experiencing a widening supply-demand gap, expected to reach over 3,600 kilograms by 2025, primarily due to supply constraints from by-product mining characteristics and increasing demand from the photovoltaic industry and emerging sectors like new energy [2][4][5] - China's adjustment of silver export policies to a licensing system aims to ensure the security and cost advantages of domestic supply chains for photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, stabilizing key metal supplies [2][9][12] - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral for national security, emphasizing its importance for defense, energy, and high-tech industries, reflecting a focus on resource control amid international competition [2][10] - India is promoting the financialization of silver to activate private reserves and support domestic jewelry manufacturing, contrasting with the resource control strategies of China and the U.S. [2][11] Key Market Insights - Recent silver prices showed a slight decline at the end of December 2025 but rebounded in early January 2026, with futures prices nearing 20,000 yuan. The market remains in a state of supply shortage, influenced by production characteristics and policy-driven market sentiment [3][4] - The silver supply has been consistently less than demand for four to five years, with a projected demand gap of over 3,600 kilograms in 2025. The supply growth rate is limited to 1%-2% annually due to the rigid nature of by-product mining [4][5] - The Shanghai silver market is currently priced higher than the CME, but this price difference may not be sustainable in the long term due to sufficient domestic demand and increased speculative costs [2][13] Financial and Trading Dynamics - The silver market's trading structure includes upstream miners, midstream smelters and traders, and downstream industrial producers. The Shenzhen Shui Bei market is a hub for retail investors, influencing market sentiment but posing risks due to low regulatory oversight [6][7] - There are concerns about the accuracy of reported silver inventories, with many traders lacking actual stock but having the ability to mobilize silver resources, necessitating personal judgment for assessing information authenticity [8] Policy Implications - China's export licensing system for silver aims to secure strategic resource management, ensuring that domestic consumption, which exceeds production, is prioritized [9][12] - The U.S. recognizes silver's strategic importance and has implemented measures to protect its availability for critical industries, reflecting a broader trend of resource control [10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The silver market is influenced by macroeconomic policies and market sentiment, with potential for price corrections in the short term due to heightened investment emotions. A return to previous price levels around 12,000 yuan is anticipated, but long-term trends suggest upward movement due to geopolitical tensions and energy issues [18][21] - The potential for copper to replace silver in photovoltaic applications is being explored, but consensus on this shift has not yet been reached [19] - Silver ETF holdings show strong correlation with gold, indicating that gold price movements will significantly impact the silver market [20] Conclusion - The silver market is characterized by a persistent supply-demand imbalance, influenced by policy changes and market sentiment. While short-term corrections may occur, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing demand from key industries and geopolitical factors [4][18][21]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货白银周报 年底行情激化，白银价格屡创新高 20251228 作者：曾可 交易咨询号：Z0022773 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 白银走势：上周白银走势非常强劲，连续刷新历史新高。伦敦银周内连续上攻，将历史新高刷新至79.405，最终收报 79.329；沪银主力合约将新高刷新至19215，截至周六凌晨收盘收于19204元 ...

哈喽，大家好，我是今天这篇财经评论，梳理了白银价格为何在圣诞假期突然加速上涨至72美元？ 12月24日前后，在传统流动性偏弱的圣诞行情中，白银却走出了一轮极不寻常的加速上涨行情。 与黄金偏重避险与货币属性不同，白银的价格弹性更高，既受宏观金融环境影响，也高度依赖市场结构 和实物供需。 在当前全球降息预期强化、美元指数走弱的背景下，白银的"高贝塔"属性被明显放大，成为资金博取弹 性的首选工具。 资金正在押注"非常态行情" 如果说价格是结果，那么资金流向则是过程。 近期，全球白银ETF出现了持续且集中的净流入。数据显示，仅一周内，以实物白银为支撑的ETF就新 增持仓约1530万盎司，接近今年第二高水平。 中国海关数据显示，10月白银出口量超过660吨，创下历史新高，其中相当一部分流向伦敦市场。尽管 近期开始补库，但速度仍难以完全覆盖潜在的交割需求。 三大交易所的"结构性紧张" 全球规模最大的白银ETF——SLV，单周净流入资金接近10亿美元，罕见地超过了同期黄金ETF的吸金 规模。 与此同时，衍生品市场的风险偏好也明显升温。COMEX微型白银期货的成交量升至10月以来高位，期 权市场中，2025年2月到期、执行价 ...

中国白银集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 0.71 -0.02 -2.74% 4.11% 2.74% 1.37% 0.00% 1.37% 2.74% 4.11% 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 168万 335万 503万 中国白银集团(00815)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨2.94%，报0.7港元，成交额530.09万港元。 消息面上，在今日早盘交易中，现货白银涨至每盎司65美元以上，突破此前纪录高位，创2025年大宗商 品中最强劲的反弹之一。据全球调查显示，白银市场连续第五年出现结构性短缺，原因是开采产出仍然 受限，而可再生能源、电子产品和其他工业部门的消费继续扩大。国信期货分析师指出，随着新能源、 电子制造等产业的快速发展，白银的工业应用场景持续拓宽，加剧市场对白银供需缺口的担忧，吸引资 金基于中长期逻辑进行布局。 光大期货表示，周二晚间将公布非农就业数据，或指引未来美联储货币政策，审慎乐观看待。白银仍保 持强势，虽有金银比回归预期，但连创新高且快速拉涨之势大有挤仓意味，关注近期的消息面。中 ...