2025年，A股总市值站上100 万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。2026年A股市场又 将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，关注 并展望2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 近日，财通基金权益研究部负责人唐家伟，做客搜狐财经直播间，深入剖析了2026年周期赛道的投资逻 辑与机遇。 唐家伟直言，当前时点需高度重视周期板块，其核心驱动来自对2026年经济可能复苏向上的强烈预 期。"周期股的行情启动一般分为三阶段：交易复苏预期、交易业绩提升、行情尾声。目前，我们正处 在对边际变化最敏感的第一阶段。" 对于行情所处阶段，唐家伟给出了较为明确的判断："有色金属目前大概率已进入第二阶段，而化工等 行业还处在第一阶段。" 他特别强调，尽管有色金属价格受近期宏观事件影响出现短期调整，但中长期来看，行情仍具备中长期 韧性。以铜为例，"一方面，铜在关键领域难以替代；另一方面，其在许多终端产品成本中占比很低， 价格传导顺畅。如果供给无法快速释放，上涨趋势或能持续。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "century-long changes" in the global political and economic landscape are the fundamental drivers behind the sustained rise in gold prices, with significant historical parallels drawn to the 1970s gold bull market [6][29]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The shift in global asset allocation towards "safety first" strategies by central banks, particularly in non-Western countries, has increased the focus on gold as a valuable asset [2][11]. - Historical events and geopolitical changes have historically driven gold prices more than economic and financial variables alone [2][14]. - The current geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade relations, have created an environment conducive to rising gold prices [9][11]. Group 2: Market Mechanisms and Trends - Gold prices may have entered a new "reflexive" cycle, where increased investment in gold by institutions and individuals leads to lower volatility and a gradual upward trend in prices [3][33]. - The historical inverse relationship between U.S. stock markets and gold prices suggests that a significant correction in U.S. equities could trigger a new surge in gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [34][36]. - The unique physical and chemical properties of gold, along with its limited annual production compared to total stock, reinforce its scarcity and monetary attributes [5][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The gold bull market of the 21st century is seen as a result of the re-emergence of a multipolar world, similar to the dynamics observed in the 1970s [20][27]. - Key historical events, such as the introduction of the euro and China's accession to the WTO, have significantly influenced global economic structures and, consequently, gold demand [21][22]. - The current trajectory of gold prices mirrors the patterns observed in the 1970s, suggesting potential for substantial future increases if historical trends continue [29][39]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing "century-long changes" are expected to continue influencing gold prices, with projections suggesting that gold could rise above $8,000 per ounce if current trends persist [39]. - The digitalization of gold and the rise of gold-backed cryptocurrencies may lower investment barriers and support gold prices from the demand side [33][39]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S.-China rivalry, is anticipated to be a critical factor in shaping the future of gold prices [38][39].