**安全死结的高风险** 在安全领域，最容易引发冲突的死结集中在台湾和南海问题上。2022年，美国众议院议长佩洛西访台，引发了中国军队在台湾周边 海域的军事演习，而美国航母编队则试图靠近对峙。台湾地区则加速了战机采购与设备升级，中国海警船加强了南海巡航。这些军事动作让双方的舰机互动 更加频繁，误判的空间也在不断扩大，擦枪走火的风险随时可能发生。美国持续向台湾地区提供武器，更是被认为是最具挑衅性的举动。与此同时，南海地 区船只接近时的执法摩擦也在不断增加。美国专家将这一安全死结与前两个死结紧密联系起来，认为美国将中国的正常发展视为威胁，并且在安全领域一再 加码。台湾问题本是中国的内政，若美国插手其中，只会使得极端势力更加活跃，带来更大的风险。而美国始终不愿正视多极化的现实，企图单边主导全球 事务，最终将安全问题推向了风口浪尖。 美国一位知名经济学家深刻指出，中美关系的紧张局势已经到了一个危险的临界点。如果继续沿着目前的轨道发展，擦枪走火的风险真是越来越大。这一切 的根源，归结起来就是三大死结，而其中最难解的，便是美国始终不愿接受中国与自己平起平坐的事实。 **经济和技术死结的交织** 2018年，经济死结初现端 ...

2026年2月20日，美国最高法院的一纸判决瞬间打破了全球的平静，也宣告了美国关税霸权的衰落。这一天，美国联邦最高法院以6:3的压倒性票数裁定，特 朗普政府过去一年多以来依照《国际紧急经济权力法》加征的对等关税完全违法。法院的判决非常明确：总统没有权力绕过国会，凭借所谓的紧急经济权力 对全球商品随意加征关税。这不仅仅是一次程序上的失误，更是对特朗普关税政策的根本性打击。特朗普上台后，凭借这根关税大棒，他在全球贸易舞台上 横行霸道，通过频繁加税来施压各国，谋取美国的私利。而如今，这根可以随意挥舞的大棒被最高法院彻底折断，特朗普的关税政策瞬间失去了法律支持， 陷入崩溃的边缘。同时，美国在国际间精心维系的信誉，也因这次判决受到了重创，几乎被割裂成千疮百孔。 然而，谁也没料到，特朗普的反击迅速而狡 猾。不到24小时，特朗普就换了个法律依据，迅速援引《1974年贸易法》第122条，宣布对所有进口商品加征10%关税。紧接着，仅仅一天之后，他又将这 一关税上调至15%。特朗普摆出一副硬碰硬的姿态，似乎准备与所有国家对抗到底。但细心的人都能看出，这不过是一场强颜欢笑的慌乱表演——第122条 本来是应对短期国际收支失衡的临时条 ...

古特雷斯说，强有力多边机构的合法性应根植于共同责任和共同价值观，《联合国宪章》载明的价值观 是实现持久和平的必要条件。 古特雷斯还介绍了2026年的工作重点，其中包括推进全球多极化、安理会改革、应对气候危机、推动制 定AI治理框架等。他强调，必须加速构建网络化、包容性、能通过伙伴关系实现平衡的多极化格局。 新华社联合国1月29日电 联合国秘书长古特雷斯29日在年初记者会上强调多边机构的重要性，呼吁通 过强化多边机构应对全球挑战。 古特雷斯说，"我们需要迈向多极世界，需要多边机构"。强权法则正凌驾法治，国际法遭到践踏，国际 合作遭到破坏，多边机构受到冲击。他呼吁改革现有体系以应对全球挑战，特别要通过强化多边机构来 实现。 ...

中新网北京1月29日电 (记者 刘亮)国际金价频繁创新高。今天，现货黄金一日之内突破5200美元和5300 美元两大整数关口，白银、铂金等贵金属也集体飙升。这轮金价狂潮背后是什么在推动？在28日举行的 投资者情绪报告发布会上，长江商学院会计与金融学教授刘劲分享他的观点。 他强调，贸易摩擦期间，市场出现了极其罕见的现象：通常市场动荡时，全球资金会涌入美债避险，但 那次美债价格却在下跌。这几乎从未发生过，说明市场对美国经济健康状况的担忧在加剧。 "其实过去十年，各国央行一直悄悄有规律地购买黄金，但非常克制，所以不会激进地推高价格。散户 投资者最近几年才开始意识到这一趋势，尤其是2025年美国发起关税战，让这个认知达到高潮。"刘劲 说。 其次，黄金有泡沫吗？刘劲称，某种意义上，黄金本身就是"泡沫"——它不像股票有盈利和分红，不支 付任何利息，价格完全取决于供需关系和人们的支付意愿。但作为货币基础，黄金仍有上涨空间。"试 想美国不再是唯一主导世界的国家，全球金融架构从单极转向多极，人们必然会使用更多黄金。" 但他同时提醒，投资黄金需要基于对全球局势的长期判断，而不是短期盲目追涨。如果在高位接盘，可 能会被套牢。(完) ...

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的 文|小戎 一边是刚点头默许盟友合作，一边转头就甩出百倍关税大棒；一边是盟友迫切想打破经济困局，一边是 霸主用强权强行捆绑。 2026年初的这场跨洋博弈，特朗普连表面和气都懒得维持，直接将枪口对准了最亲近的邻居加拿大，一 场关乎经济主权的较量已然打响，而加拿大成了首个被推上风口浪尖的受害者。 不准与中国签协议，否则加税100% 谁能想到，八天前还被特朗普称为"好事"的中加经贸合作，转瞬就成了引爆霸权怒火的导火索。 加拿大总理卡尼访华带回的《经贸合作路线图》，本是这个依赖单一市场的国家，为经济找的一条活路 ——不仅能摆脱对美75.9%的出口依赖，还能靠着农产品和能源出口打开新空间。 可这份互利共赢的协议，在特朗普眼里却成了挑战权威的"叛逆之举"。 特朗普的翻脸比翻书还快，直接在社交媒体撂下狠话：只要加拿大敢和中国敲定任何贸易协议，所有输 美商品一律加征100%关税，这个税率比去年的威胁翻了十倍，近乎要把加拿大经济逼上绝路。 更过分的是，他再次将加拿大称作"美国第51个州"，完全无视这个主权国家的尊严，字里行间都在传递 一 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the historical context of European dominance and contrasts it with the current geopolitical landscape, where China, Russia, and the U.S. have significant influence, while Europe appears to be struggling [1][3]. - Europe is facing internal challenges such as high debt, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and a lack of military readiness, which have been exacerbated by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][5]. - The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to soaring energy prices and increased defense spending in Europe, which has reached €381 billion, but the slow approval processes hinder effective military production [5][11]. Group 2 - China's role in the global economy is increasingly important, with the World Intellectual Property Organization's 2025 Global Innovation Index ranking China among the top ten in various fields, particularly in green development [7][13]. - The trade relationship between China and the EU is characterized by strong interdependence, with significant reliance on Chinese goods, including technology and electric vehicles, complicating any potential decoupling [7][9]. - European leaders are divided on how to approach China, with some advocating for a tougher stance due to perceived support for Russia, while others emphasize the importance of maintaining strong economic ties [9][11]. Group 3 - The article discusses Europe's slow progress towards strategic autonomy and the need for broader partnerships in light of a shifting global order, with calls for Europe to adapt to new realities [11][13]. - The rise of China is viewed not as a threat but as an opportunity for cooperation, with potential for significant collaboration between Europe and China, particularly in addressing security and economic challenges [13]. - The ongoing challenges in Europe, including youth unemployment and social unrest, highlight the urgency for the EU to find its position in a multipolar world, as its historical advantages are perceived to be diminishing [11][13].

Group 1 - The core phenomenon of currency settlement in oil trade between China and Russia is not just a simple energy exchange but a significant economic lifeline for Russia, with 99.1% of transactions now conducted in local currencies [1] - In 2023, China imported 107 million tons of crude oil from Russia, expected to rise to 108.47 million tons in 2024, accounting for 19.6% of China's total imports [1] - The share of the US dollar in global oil trade has decreased from 80% to 72%, indicating a growing trend towards local currency settlements [1] Group 2 - The proportion of the Chinese yuan in Russia's foreign exchange reserves has increased from 13% to 26%, while gold reserves have reached a historical high, indicating a shift away from dollar dependency [2] - Despite a decline in trade volume in the first three quarters of 2025, the stability of local currency settlements has shielded the Russian economy from significant impacts [2] - Chinese automotive sales in Russia surged to 470,000 units in 2023, up from just 30,000 three years prior, with projections of 1.07 million units in 2024, capturing 58% of the Russian passenger car market [2][4] Group 3 - Chinese engineering machinery has dominated the Russian market, with market shares in machine tools rising from 20% to 80% and 95% in engineering machinery, filling the gap left by Western companies [4] - Russia's industrial production has recovered to 98% of pre-sanction levels, with GDP growth projected at 2.1% for 2023, supported by the replacement of Western equipment with Chinese technology [4] - The issuance of the first yuan-denominated federal loan bond by Russia marks a new phase in Sino-Russian financial cooperation, with a total amount of 20 billion yuan [6] Group 4 - The opening of a new Arctic container shipping route in September 2025, reducing transit time to Europe to 18 days, signifies deepening Sino-Russian cooperation [8] - The restructuring of global supply chains is leading to the formation of an economic bloc in Eurasia, enhancing China's energy security and promoting the internationalization of the yuan [10] - The trade volume between China and Russia reached $184.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, despite an 8.7% year-on-year decline, indicating strong strategic cooperation [12]

Group 1: Economic Challenges - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a projected fiscal deficit of $1.3 trillion in the first half of 2025, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history [2] - Interest costs for the fiscal year 2025 are expected to exceed $1 trillion, surpassing the defense budget, raising concerns about the U.S. debt repayment capacity [2] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet reduction has led to increased bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.58%, significantly higher than similar bonds in Germany and Japan [2] Group 2: Shift in Investment Strategies - Investors globally are selling U.S. Treasuries and turning to alternative assets like gold, with China's gold reserves increasing for eight consecutive months, reaching 2,298.5 tons by June 2025 [4] - The BRICS nations are becoming central to the de-dollarization process, with a declaration from the 2025 Kazan summit promoting local currency settlements, reducing the dollar's share in trade among member countries to below 5% [5] Group 3: Currency and Payment Systems - The cross-border payment system CIPS has expanded to 1,427 participating institutions across 109 countries, with its settlement share rising to 48% in the first half of 2025, surpassing the dollar's 47% [7] - The ASEAN finance ministers' meeting prioritized reducing reliance on the dollar, with India and Malaysia establishing currency settlement agreements that weaken the dollar's pricing power in oil and commodities [7] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions and Financial Regulations - The U.S. Congress passed legislation in 2025 to scrutinize Chinese assets, transforming geopolitical risks into financial pressures, which could impact Chinese decision-making [9] - The U.S. Treasury added 412 Chinese companies to its entity list in the first half of 2025, expanding the scope of technology export bans and affecting over 20,000 Chinese entities [11] Group 5: Financial Sanctions and Investment Scrutiny - The expansion of CFIUS's authority in 2025 includes more frequent reporting and tighter data sharing among G7 allies to track funding flows, particularly targeting Chinese investments in technology and agriculture [13] - The introduction of the FIGHT China Act aims to prohibit U.S. investments in critical Chinese technologies, reflecting a deeper focus on investment scrutiny compared to previous trade tariffs [16] Group 6: Global Reactions and Economic Implications - The EU is hesitant to legally support U.S. asset freezes, while China retaliates against U.S. tariffs on agricultural products, indicating a complex global response to U.S. financial strategies [20] - The essence of U.S. financial strategies appears to be a desperate measure amid declining hegemony, with a projected national debt interest exceeding defense spending and a household burden of $12,700 [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in Canada's foreign policy and economic strategy in response to aggressive trade actions and rhetoric from the Trump administration, particularly focusing on the pivot towards China as a new strategic partner [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - In February 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, which was later increased to 35% in August, severely impacting Canada's economy, particularly in sectors like lumber, automotive, and dairy [1][3]. - The tariffs led to factory shutdowns, rising unemployment, and a depreciating Canadian dollar, pushing the Canadian economy into recession [3]. - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Carney, recognized the need to reduce reliance on the U.S. and began exploring new partnerships, particularly with China [5][18]. Group 2: Diplomatic Engagement with China - Following the change in leadership, Canada initiated diplomatic talks with China, with the Canadian Foreign Minister speaking to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who expressed a willingness to enhance cooperation [9]. - A Canadian delegation led by the Minister of Agriculture visited China to discuss agricultural exports, particularly canola and other products, highlighting China's importance as a market for Canadian goods [7]. - The shift towards China is seen as a strategic move to mitigate the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs while signaling a desire to restore cooperative relations [7][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The evolving relationship between Canada and China reflects a broader trend of Western allies reassessing their ties with the U.S., leading to fractures within alliances like the Five Eyes [11][13]. - Canada's pivot towards China is indicative of a global trend towards multipolarity, as countries seek to balance their foreign relations amid U.S. unilateralism [15][20]. - The Carney government's strategy aims to navigate between the U.S. and China, maximizing benefits from both while avoiding over-dependence on either [18].

Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - The total U.S. debt has exceeded $33 trillion, with per capita debt approaching $100,000 [1] - Future projections indicate that the debt could surpass $52 trillion in the next decade, necessitating a transformation in fiscal policy [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The U.S. manufacturing sector is facing significant challenges, including labor shortages and technological bottlenecks, despite supportive policies like the CHIPS Act [3] - Less than 40% of companies are willing to relocate overseas production back to the U.S., indicating limited actual results from policy initiatives [3] Group 3: Social Governance Issues - The share of manufacturing in the U.S. GDP has declined from 24% to 10.8%, highlighting the sector's diminishing role in the economy [5] - Rising household debt and increasing credit card defaults are contributing to growing anxiety among the middle class [6] Group 4: Geopolitical Dynamics - The traditional U.S.-dominated monetary system is undergoing structural changes, with a growing trend towards de-dollarization and increased influence of BRICS nations [3] - The U.S. is experiencing a marginalization of its global influence, with a rising collective strength among "Global South" countries [6] Group 5: Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. economic growth forecast for 2024 is only 1.3%, contrasting with China's advancements in strategic emerging sectors [6] - The U.S. military is also facing challenges, including extended supply cycles for weaponry and slower modernization progress [6] Group 6: Global Power Dynamics - The U.S. hegemonic system is facing multiple challenges, with a shift towards a multipolar world order [8] - Future U.S.-China competition is expected to be complex and multifaceted, with potential short-term volatility and long-term strategic rivalry [8]