2025年2月，特朗普政府突然宣布对加拿大商品加征25%的关税，到了8月，这一税率又猛然提升至 35%。更令人震惊的是，特朗普竟然公开表示，要把加拿大吞并成美国的第51个州。这一系列举措让加 拿大人民震惊不已，几乎不敢相信自己听到的消息。特鲁多下台后，新上任的总理卡尼立即采取了不同 的外交策略，将注意力转向中国。11月11日，加拿大外交部长应邀与中国外交部长王毅通话，王毅在通 话中表达了中方愿意与加方加强沟通、恢复各领域合作的积极态度。从那时起，中加关系的格局开始发 生变化。 2025年11月，加拿大农业和农业食品部长率领代表团访华，这一举措显得尤为重要。此次访华的主要目 标是通过实实在在的商业合作，特别是谈论油菜籽和农产品，来逐步破冰。这种低调、务实的方式非常 聪明。中国是加拿大农产品的第二大出口市场，仅2024年，加拿大油菜籽的出口额就超过了240亿元人 民币。面对美国市场的困境，中国市场反而成为了一个重要的救命稻草。农业部长此行不仅是为了解决 经济上的实际问题，也为了避免直接激怒美国，同时向中国传递出愿意恢复合作的信号。 11月11日，加拿大外长阿南德与中国外交部长王毅通话，王毅明确表示，中方愿意加强合 ...

社会治理领域矛盾逐步凸显，移民管理、劳工权益保障、社会信任体系建设均面临多重挑战。美国制造 业占GDP比重已从过往的24%降至10.8%（数据来源：世界银行制造业行业统计），家庭债务规模持续 美国债务问题呈现"温水煮青蛙"式恶化态势，当前债务总额已超33万亿美元（数据来源：美国财政部最 新统计），人头均负债接近10万美元。尽管多次上调债务上限，但信用评级下调风险持续存在，财政压 力不断加剧。据机构预判，未来十年债务规模或突破52万亿美元（数据来源：国际货币基金组织全球债 务报告），如此庞大的债务体量，单靠经济增长难以有效"化解"，财政政策转型已刻不容缓。 制造业复兴进程如同一场"逆流而上的远征"。尽管美国出台芯片法案、提供投资补贴等支持政策，但台 积电亚利桑那工厂、英特尔俄亥俄基地建设进度迟滞，政策实质成效短期难以显现。劳动力缺口持续扩 大、核心技术瓶颈难以突破，成为制约制造业复苏的"达摩克利斯之剑"。市场数据显示，不足四成企业 愿意将海外产能迁回本土（数据来源：美国商会产业调研），大量制造业产能依旧滞留海外，制造业回 流仅停留在口号层面，实际成果有限。 美元主导的传统货币格局正逐步发生结构性变化，金砖机制持 ...

自从荷兰政府在9月底突然对安世荷兰采取强硬手段，强行收购了安世半导体后，全球半导体供应链进入了长达一个多月的动荡期。荷兰政府原本预计的情 况是，这样的行为会带来对中国的压力，但他们没有预料到中国的反应会如此迅速且强烈。甚至连美国，也没有按照荷兰的预期为其站台，反而在与中国的 会谈后，与中国达成了"和解"，并对荷兰的行为保持了距离。 中美会谈之后，考虑到当前国际形势和全球贸易状况，双方决定"休战"一年，以缓解彼此的紧张关系。与此同时，双方就关税等制衡措施达成了初步共识， 决定按下暂停键，其中也包括所谓的"50规则"。然而，作为美国在此问题中的"马前卒"，荷兰在这次会谈中却被完全忽略。对荷兰而言，这意味着美国实际 上将其抛弃。 荷兰原本的依仗是欧盟和美国，但如今欧盟连插话的机会都没有，更不用说支持荷兰了。而美国也没有表示会提供帮助，明显是希望荷兰自己与中国对抗。 然而，荷兰无论在哪个领域都无法与中国相提并论，根本没有任何胜算。 这一条件也在近期由商务部直接说明，荷兰必须恢复之前的状态。这意味着荷兰政府需要撤销之前强行收购安世荷兰的决定，恢复张学政的CEO职务，并返 还属于闻泰科技的安世股权。此外，荷兰还需要恢复向 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the deterioration of US-Canada relations following the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, marking the beginning of a "de-Americanization" process among Western nations [1][16] - The conflict was ignited by the US imposing tariffs on Canadian goods, with plans to escalate these tariffs by the end of 2024, targeting various sectors including automobiles and dairy products [2][5] - Canada responded assertively by producing a $7.5 million promotional video that critiques US tariff policies, emphasizing the long-term damage to US interests [4][5] Group 2 - The promotional video utilized a speech by former President Reagan, arguing that while tariffs may have short-term effectiveness, they ultimately harm the US economy [4] - In response to the video, Trump accused Canada of attempting to interfere with US court decisions and announced the termination of trade negotiations, further escalating tensions [5][9] - The underlying tensions between the US and Canada have historical roots, with Canada feeling disrespected by Trump's actions and rhetoric, which undermined their long-standing alliance [7][16] Group 3 - Following the breakdown in relations, Canada initiated a "de-Americanization" strategy, seeking to strengthen ties with Asian economies and reduce reliance on the US market [11][14] - Canada signed a free trade agreement with Indonesia and established preliminary cooperation agreements with the UAE, EU, and Germany in various sectors [13] - The Canadian government aims to double its exports to non-US markets over the next decade, indicating a strategic shift in trade policy [14] Group 4 - The article suggests that the root cause of the rift is the US's trade protectionism and hegemonic mindset, which has strained relationships with allies [16] - While Canada is attempting to reduce its dependence on the US, challenges remain, particularly in military security, where reliance on the US is deeply entrenched [17] - Canada's assertive stance against the US may influence the foreign policies of other Western nations, highlighting the need for diversified international partnerships [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Trump's ongoing tariff policies aimed at China and the EU, highlighting the strategic objectives behind these measures and their implications for global trade dynamics [2][5][16]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Objectives - Trump's tariffs on China are designed to create uncertainty and slow down China's industrial upgrades, with tariffs on high-tech products set to rise from 25% to 47% by January 2025 [2][3]. - The tariffs cover critical sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and industrial robots, while China has responded with a historic 84% tariff on all imports from the U.S. [3][5]. - The U.S. has also pressured companies like Apple and Tesla to relocate production from China to Southeast Asia or North America to maintain tariff benefits [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on the EU - Trump's approach to the EU involves targeted economic pressure, compelling the EU to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods while the U.S. maintains punitive tariffs on key EU products [7][10]. - A framework agreement was established where the EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products and $40 billion in AI chips by 2028, indicating a significant economic concession [9][10]. - The U.S. has strategically divided the EU by offering concessions to Eastern European countries, thereby weakening the EU's collective response to U.S. policies [10][15]. Group 3: Broader Strategic Implications - The U.S. is not only applying economic pressure but also planning military withdrawals from Europe, which could further destabilize the region and increase reliance on U.S. security guarantees [12][13]. - Trump's actions have led to a growing awareness within the EU of the need for defense autonomy, as highlighted by the EU Commission President's remarks on strategic anxiety [15][16]. - The article concludes that while Trump's policies may disrupt global trade in the short term, they are unlikely to reverse the trend towards a multipolar world [16].

关歆进一步指出，潜在的重要催化剂可能来自美股与黄金的历史性反向关系。近几年来，美股与金价短 期同步上扬，主要由于美股受AI革命等因素推动，从历史上看，这种阶段性偏离较为少见，长周期考 察两者呈现相当显著的反向关系。若未来两三年内美股出现大幅调整，基于避险需求与资产再配置，大 量资金可能转向黄金，引发金价新一轮大幅上涨。 最后，关歆强调，黄金牛市是有边界的，牛市边界并不由货币数量或利率水平决定，而是取决于动荡的 国际格局何时能达成新的稳定平衡。历史表明，在"和平与发展"的确定性时代主题下，即使存在"货币 超发"，黄金牛市也可能告一段落。当前黄金价格的持续上涨，正是对当下全球格局可能走向的直接反 映。 以下为关歆发言全文： 我对黄金价格的研究始于2005年，当时全程参与了由中国黄金协会主导的黄金投资分析师国家职业资格 的申报设立与教程编写工作。那一年，国际金价约为每盎司500美元，基于深入研究，我当时判断金价 将很快从500美元涨至1000美元，并认为未来有望突破3000美元。不过，对于3000美元以上的行情，当 时并无把握，也难以预料时至今日的走势。就在今天（10月17日）中午，国际现货金价折合人民币价格 历史 ...

Key Points - The A-share market experienced a strong opening in the fourth quarter, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 50 points to surpass 3900, marking a new high in over 10 years [1][11] - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth items, requiring specific exporters to obtain licenses before exporting to countries outside China, particularly for military end-users [1][12][13] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to combat price disorder and maintain a fair market environment [1][16][17] Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 0.37% while other indices like the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index saw declines [2][23] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a rise of 4.44%, driven by increased international gold prices and strong demand in the AI sector [2][25] - The trading volume surged to over 2.67 trillion yuan on October 9, reflecting heightened market activity post-holiday [11][23] Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and robotics, which are expected to yield excess returns under current policies [3][30] - Non-bank financials, particularly brokerage firms, may benefit from a slow bull market, while insurance companies could see capital returns improve [3][31] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is anticipated to grow amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with copper supply under pressure and demand increasing [3][31][21] - The storage sector is expected to thrive due to policy support, while machinery sectors like engineering machinery and heavy trucks may benefit from recovering manufacturing activities [3][32]

Core Insights - The recent energy cooperation between China and Russia is described as "unprecedented" by Kremlin spokesperson Peskov, highlighting its potential to reshape the Eurasian energy landscape [1] - The agreement signifies Russia's strategic pivot towards the East as the EU reduces its energy dependence on Russia, making collaboration with China a crucial avenue for Russia [1] - China’s significant position in the global energy market has compelled Russia to make price concessions, resulting in a mutually beneficial arrangement [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - In September, Russia's Gazprom and China's CNPC signed four agreements to expand cooperation, including the "Power of Siberia 2" project and the new "Eastern Alliance" pipeline through Mongolia [2] - The gas supply volume for the "Power of Siberia" project will increase from 38 billion cubic meters to 44 billion cubic meters, and the "Far East" pipeline from 10 billion cubic meters to 12 billion cubic meters [2] - The gradual increase in supply volume reflects a strategic approach to ensure long-term and stable supply-demand balance, adapting to future demand changes [2] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The new agreements indicate a shift from single project cooperation to a systematic layout involving multiple pipelines and regions, effectively reducing geopolitical uncertainties and enhancing supply stability [2] - Experts predict that the increased gas supply will be realized between 2027 and 2028, coinciding with the EU's goal to eliminate reliance on Russian energy [4] - Potential joint ventures between Gazprom and CNPC for pipeline projects could deepen energy cooperation, moving beyond mere transactions to involve capital and technology integration [4] Group 3: Broader Cooperation - The cooperation between China and Russia extends beyond energy, encompassing finance, security, and regional integration, contributing to a tighter strategic network [6] - This partnership aims to create a supply chain independent of Western influence and explore paths for de-dollarization in finance [6] - Future collaborations may include innovative areas such as renewable energy technology, Arctic development, digital economy, and artificial intelligence, potentially altering global rules [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is exerting significant pressure on India, demanding it withdraw from BRICS and cease purchasing Russian oil, threatening a 50% tariff if it does not comply [1][5][15] Group 1: U.S. Pressure on India - U.S. Commerce Secretary Lighthizer has labeled India as a "vowel between Russia and China," demanding India stop acting as a bridge between the two nations [3] - The Trump administration has implemented a 50% punitive tariff on India, specifically targeting its purchases of Russian oil, which has put immense pressure on Indian exporters [5] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that the issue extends beyond Russian oil, describing it as a "complex relationship" [5] Group 2: India's Response - In response to U.S. pressure, Modi has canceled plans to attend the UN General Assembly, opting for the Foreign Minister to represent India instead, signaling a firm stance against external pressure [8] - India's Finance Minister has publicly stated that the country will continue purchasing Russian oil due to its economic benefits, indicating that India will not sacrifice its economic interests to appease the U.S. [11] - Modi's recent attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and friendly exchanges with Chinese and Russian leaders suggest a shift in India's diplomatic posture towards a more multilateral approach [13] Group 3: Strategic Implications - India's oil purchases from Russia have surged from less than 2% pre-conflict to 40%, reflecting a strategic adjustment in response to global energy market fluctuations [9] - The tension in U.S.-India relations may inadvertently push India closer to BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, potentially accelerating the process of global multipolarity [15] - India's approach reflects a desire to maintain strategic autonomy and balance between major powers, indicating a complex and evolving international relationship landscape [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, marked by the breakdown of the US-India alliance and the thawing of US-Russia relations, indicating a potential shift in global power dynamics [1][9]. Group 1: US-India Relations - Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports, signaling a deterioration in US-India relations [1]. - Modi's visit to China, after seven years, is seen as an attempt to pressure the US regarding tariff negotiations, highlighting the unraveling of the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy [3]. - The initial optimism for a trade agreement between the US and India has dissipated due to harsh tariff conditions imposed by the US, leading to a breakdown in negotiations [3]. Group 2: US-Europe Relations - The US has sidelined Europe in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, with the US and Russia planning a bilateral meeting without European involvement [5]. - Trump's administration has expressed dissatisfaction with European military spending and trade deficits, viewing European contributions as inadequate [7]. - The EU's trade surplus with the US amounted to €198.2 billion last year, which contradicts Trump's "America First" policy [7]. Group 3: Global Geopolitical Shifts - The rise of populism and extreme right-wing movements in Western societies, along with increasing unilateralism, is contributing to a fragmented international order [9]. - Trump's tariffs and withdrawal from international agreements are exacerbating global tensions and signaling a potential shift towards a multipolar world [9][11]. - The outcome of these geopolitical changes presents both challenges and opportunities for China, as the US may seek to consolidate its alliances against China while also facing potential discontent from its allies [11].