美股盘前，美联储官员卡什卡利表示，美国经济放缓可能促使美联储在短期内下调利率，他认为今年降息两次是合理的。这番言论增强了市场对降息的预 期，投资者普遍认为降息将为美股提供支持。 美股早盘，投资者热情推动美股开盘上涨，纳指涨超1%，标普500指数涨约0.8%。科技股七巨头指数早盘持续上行、涨幅扩大至1.6%，苹果涨超5%。 据美股投资网了解到，特朗普总统表示，他将对海外生产的半导体征收100%的关税，除非这些公司承诺在美国生产。 特朗普在椭圆形办公室与苹果首席执行官蒂姆库克共同出席新闻发布会时宣布了这一消息，库克还宣布将向美国的研究和制造业额外投资 1000 亿美元。 这项投资承诺不仅对美国制造业构成支持，也增强了市场对科技行业未来增长的信心。 特朗普表示："对于像苹果这样的公司，若他们在美国建设工厂或已经承诺建设，那么毫无疑问，他们将不需要支付任何关税。" 特朗普还表示，如果一家公司表示将在美国建设工厂，但却没有这样做，它将再次面临关税以及反向关税。 芯片制造商ALAB 今天狂飙近29%！因为第二季度财报超预期。 AMD积极信号 美股午盘，10年期美债拍卖意外疲软，尤其是美国以外的买家需求下降，投标倍数创一年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the continuous rise of US stocks since the April low, Morgan Stanley warns of a potential 5-10% pullback in the third quarter due to seasonal weakness, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, and tariff impacts. However, the firm maintains a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, viewing any pullback as a strategic buying opportunity [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The report highlights that the new bull market may require a "pause" as seasonal headwinds and macro uncertainties could trigger a short-term pullback of 5-10% in Q3 2025 [3][4]. - The combination of "growth slowdown" and "hawkish Fed" is expected to lead to market corrections, particularly during the traditionally weak period from August to October [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the market needs to digest the risks associated with delayed Fed rate cuts due to inflation concerns stemming from tariffs [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Fed's policy path is identified as the largest uncertainty, with weak labor data typically prompting rate cuts, but inflation fears from tariffs may lead to a more cautious approach [5][7]. - Tariff impacts are beginning to show, with costs being passed to companies, potentially harming profit margins for those with weak pricing power [7][8]. - Global liquidity is tightening, with a strong dollar slowing the growth of global money supply, which could pressure risk assets in the short term [9]. Group 3: Earnings and Growth - Morgan Stanley's bullish stance is supported by a "V-shaped" recovery in earnings revision breadth (ERB) since April 2025, indicating a fundamental improvement in corporate earnings outlook [14][16]. - The report notes that many companies have already cut costs during a "rolling recession," positioning them to benefit from improved demand and operational leverage [17]. - The adoption of AI and new pro-growth tax policies are expected to drive capital expenditures, M&A activity, and earnings growth, with significant effects anticipated in 2026-2027 [18]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The report suggests that while the timing is uncertain, a strong rate-cutting cycle by the Fed is likely as labor market weaknesses and inflation pressures eventually subside [19][20]. - The bond market indicates a high probability (88%) of a Fed rate cut in September, with historical patterns suggesting that such yield curve inversions often precede rate cuts [21][23]. - Morgan Stanley believes that as long as a deep recession does not occur, the anticipated rate cuts will be very favorable for the stock market [23]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The report advocates for a "buy the dip" strategy, viewing any 5-10% pullback as an opportunity to accumulate quality assets [24]. - It recommends a preference for large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks and industrials over non-essential consumer goods, due to the greater impact of tariffs on consumer goods margins [24]. - The importance of AI as a long-term investment theme is emphasized, with a focus on companies that are core adopters or enablers of AI technology [24][25].

在经历了数月的强劲反弹后，华尔街正面临一个关键问题：这轮新牛市是否需要"中场休息"？ 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利发布最新报告《新牛市需要暂停了吗？》指出，尽管美股已进入新一轮牛市，但2025年第三季度的季节性逆风和宏观不确定性 可能引发一场5-10%的短暂回调。然而，策略师们强调，这并不会动摇市场的长期上行趋势，任何回调都应被视为战略性的买入良机。 该行首席美股策略师Michael J Wilson及其团队在报告中明确表示，他们近几个月来的看涨立场主要基于企业盈利修正广度（ERB）的"V型"复苏，这一复 苏始于2025年4月。但近期疲软的劳动力市场报告，叠加美联储因担忧关税引发通胀而可能推迟降息的立场，构成了第三季度市场盘整的主要催化剂。 这种"增长放缓"与"鹰派美联储"的组合，尤其是在8月至10月这一传统弱势时期，可能导致市场出现回调。摩根士丹利认为，市场需要消化美联储降息预 期被推迟的风险，因为通胀担忧可能会限制美联储在增长数据疲软时采取鸽派行动。 尽管如此，摩根士丹利对未来12个月的前景愈发充满信心，并重申其"逢低买入"的建议。他们认为，当前的回调风险是暂时的，而盈利增长、经营杠杆改 善和人工智能（AI） ...