Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) maintains a "buy" rating with a significant price increase of 124.49% from the beginning of 2025 to August 22, 2025, ranking among the top ten performers in the non-ferrous metal sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Since the low point in March 2020, China Hongqiao has achieved a cumulative increase of 1316.85% as of August 22, 2025, showcasing a remarkable recovery in the metal sector [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 35.02% year-on-year in the first half of the year, benefiting from lower coal prices and a low base from last year's impairment profits [1][2] - The average dividend yield from 2020 to 2024 is 10.48%, with a projected yield of 13.69% for 2024, indicating a strong dividend profile and attractive value for dividend investors [1] Group 2: High Dividend Status - China Hongqiao is recognized as the first high-dividend player in the electrolytic aluminum sector due to its leading cost management and cash flow generation, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing from 17.779 billion to 33.983 billion from 2020 to 2024 [2] - The company has a fully integrated aluminum industry chain, which helps mitigate price fluctuations across different products, ensuring stable operational performance [2] - Capital expenditure has been kept low, with only about 38% of operating cash flow allocated to capital expenditures, allowing for further downward flexibility in future spending [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience a dual boost in profitability and valuation, driven by a favorable economic cycle and increasing dividend yields [3] - With long-term interest rates declining and the average dividend yield in the electrolytic aluminum sector exceeding 5%, there is potential for further growth in dividend yields as aluminum prices and dividends rise [3] - China Hongqiao is positioned to lead the recovery in profitability and valuation within the sector, with a projected annualized net profit of 24.72 billion based on the first half of the year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 7.09% [3]

智通财经APP获悉，长江证券发布研报称，维持中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，2025年初至今涨幅高达 124.49%(截至2025年8月22日)，在有色板块标的年涨幅位居前十，表现延续靓丽。公司2020-2024年平 均股息率达10.48%，2024年报股息率高达13.69%，红利属性经多年验证且分红率股息率进一步跃升， 红利配置性价比优异。电解铝板块迈入高分红的大时代，公司凭借全球全产业链布局、成本优势以及资 本开支中枢下移，成为最先高分红标的。展望未来，从周期到红利，从弹性到韧性，电解铝板块有望迎 来盈利和估值双击共振。 长江证券主要观点如下： 为何公司表现一鸣惊人? 从2020年3月低点以来，中国宏桥累计涨幅高达1316.85%(截至2025年8月22日)，从金属板块中涅槃重 生，脱颖而出。公司2025年初至今涨幅高达124.49%(截至2025年8月22日)，在有色板块标的年涨幅位居 前十，表现延续靓丽。拆分来看，(1)公司今年上半年归母净利润同比高增35.02%，尽管氧化铝价格高 位回落和铝价平稳，但是受益于煤价下跌以及去年减值盈利相对低基数，由此今年上半年盈利继续高位 改善;(2)公司估值修复 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The report highlights that the electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience a dual boost in profitability and valuation, with China Hongqiao as a leading integrated player driving this trend [5][7] - The company has shown remarkable performance, with a cumulative increase of 1316.85% since the low point in March 2020, and a year-to-date increase of 124.49% as of August 22, 2025 [5] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year increased by 35.02% year-on-year, benefiting from lower coal prices and a low base from last year's impairment profits [5][6] - The average dividend yield from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be 10.48%, with a high of 13.69% in 2024, showcasing the company's strong dividend attributes [6][7] Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company has a robust cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing from 17.779 billion to 33.983 billion from 2020 to 2024 [6] - The integrated supply chain from bauxite to aluminum processing helps mitigate price fluctuations across different products [6] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the electrolytic aluminum sector is entering a phase of profitability and valuation recovery, with potential for further growth in dividend yields as aluminum prices rise [7] - The anticipated annualized net profit for the first half of the year is projected at 24.72 billion, with a reference dividend payout ratio of 62.03%, leading to a dividend yield of 7.09% [7]