跨年前后或是做多的窗口期 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 李畅 策略分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500523070001 | | 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com | 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com | 一、策略观点：跨年前后或是做多的窗口期 4 | | --- | | 二、本周市场变化 9 | | 风险因素 12 | [Table_Summary] 核心结论：本周市场继续震荡，成交缩量。海外流动性扰动持续对风险 偏好产生影响，日本央行释放出可能再次加息的信号，引发市场担忧套 息交易逆转风险上升。美元指数 11 月以来在 100 附近震荡，市场对美 联储 12 月降息预期的博弈陷入拉锯战。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要 原因或在于，当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于中长期资金 和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that over the past two months, the value style has strengthened significantly, with financial, cyclical, and consumer sectors rotating in performance [2][10][11] - The core reason for this style diffusion is attributed to the performance window before year-end, where sectors lack high-frequency quarterly reports to validate performance, leading to volatility driven mainly by valuation and expectations [2][10] - Historical context shows that in the second half of 2014, a liquidity bull market saw a shift from TMT to value, with cyclical and financial sectors performing well, although this trend was short-lived [2][10][18] Group 2 - The report notes that the current style diffusion is still in a phase driven by valuation, expectations, and capital inflow, which is expected to last at least 1-2 quarters [2][10][25] - For the style diffusion to transition into an annual-level market, the profitability logic of value stocks needs to be validated [2][10][25] - The report suggests that in the later stages of the liquidity bull market, the technology sector, which has a stronger long-term industrial logic, may return to prominence before the stabilization of value stock fundamentals [2][10][25] Group 3 - The report highlights that the financial sector is currently undervalued, with a high probability of outperforming as resident capital accelerates inflow [29][34] - The electrical equipment sector is noted for its potential growth, benefiting from investments in the AI industry and improving supply-demand dynamics [29][34] - The cyclical sector, particularly steel and chemicals, is expected to see opportunities due to stabilizing supply policies and potential demand recovery [29][34]