申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】红十月，备战跨年行情 原创 阅读全文 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant emotional recovery during the trading week from December 16 to December 20, with a notable rebound after initial declines [1] - The market was primarily driven by two major directions: the recovery of technology growth style and core asset performance [5][9] Market Performance - A total of 4,126 stocks declined this week, marking the second-highest number of declining stocks since the significant corrections in early October and mid-November [4] - The technology sector showed strength, highlighted by the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 index, while the North Stock 50 index ended a nine-day losing streak with gains on Thursday and Friday [3] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved, with individual investor sentiment reaching historical highs, while institutional sentiment showed signs of recovery, indicating a potential strong market phase [8][9] - The market is expected to stabilize in the coming days, with the Shanghai Composite Index's 60-day moving average serving as a support level [9] Future Outlook - The upcoming week is anticipated to see a "cross-year market," characterized by a phase of rising stock prices as the year ends, typically occurring from November to early February [11][12] - The market liquidity remains ample, with expectations of continued support from the central bank, which may inject significant funds into the market [10][13] Sector Focus - Short-term focus should remain on technology growth and core assets, particularly in sectors like electronics, communications, and military technology, which are expected to benefit from policy and industry trends [10][19] - The AI glasses concept has gained attention, with companies like Rokid and Doctor Glasses being highlighted for their collaborations, potentially driving stock performance in this niche [18][19] Upcoming Events - Key economic reports are set to be released, including the monthly report on industrial economic efficiency and the price changes of important production materials, which could impact market sentiment [20][21] - A total of 67 companies will have their restricted shares released next week, amounting to 7.068 billion shares, which could influence stock prices [22]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction and most broad-based indices recorded declines at the close [1] - The Politburo meeting's announcement was significantly more optimistic than expected, leading to a surge in Hong Kong and FTSE A50 indices [1][2] - The meeting indicated that the GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024 is likely to be achieved, boosting market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies to stimulate domestic demand and promote innovation, which is seen as a positive outlook for 2025 [1][2] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is expected to eliminate risks of significant declines, encouraging capital inflows [1][2] Group 3 - The market adjustment was primarily due to concerns over policy uncertainties ahead of important meetings, leading to some investors withdrawing funds [3] - The dividend index and large-cap indices saw gains, while the ChiNext and small-cap indices experienced larger declines [4] Group 4 - The dividend style remains supported, while growth-oriented stocks have shown a notable pullback, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite [5] - Long-term capital is expected to be a significant source of incremental funds in the market, with the dividend style likely to perform well [5] Group 5 - A sharp rise in the market is not expected to be sustainable, and investors are advised to avoid chasing high prices after significant increases [6] - The total trading volume for the day was 16,345 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,543 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9]