回顾从2021年至今，这几年12月的行情似乎都有一个规律，大家是否发现了呢？每年11月底到12月中 旬，市场表现都不错，但为什么到了12月12日前后，行情就会出现拐点呢？原因或许就在这轮行情的核 心逻辑——博弈。每年12月中旬都会召开重要会议，大家可以看看会议的结束时间，与2021年以来每年 12月行情拐点的时间是否完全一致。我们的市场一直都有这样的规律，在重大事件之前，市场表现通常 都很稳定，但等大事落地之后，市场就不那么乐观了。每年12月的大会就是一个很好的例子。12月是一 个关键节点，既要总结过去一年的工作，又要规划下一年的工作。就拿去年来说，当时提到的消费、科 技反内卷等概念，完全主宰了今年大部分的行情。所以每年从10月底到12月中旬，市场都会围绕大会进 行博弈，等到大会结束就会迎来预期兑现。 那么接下来这一轮反弹我们该如何把握呢？关键就在于你认为大会将会提到哪些方向。这几年有两个明 显的变化：一是产业重点方面，2021年和2022年提到的是数字经济新基建，也就是AI应用和算力。那 时候炒作算力和现在还不一样，炒作的是国资云概念，也偏重于AI软件。等到2023年和2024年，进一 步提出要发展心智生产 ...

新华财经上海11月22日电 2025年已接近尾声，全球大类资产配置有何趋势，A股市场哪些板块更具投资价值，跨年行情又会呈现出哪些新的特征？围绕资产 配置与股市行情，在近期举行的第十四届"沪上金融家"的颁奖活动上，来自九方智投的多位业界投资专家接受了新华财经采访。他们表示，增配人民币资产 或已成为全球资产配置的重要趋势，得益于中国经济稳健复苏和人工智能（AI）等科技创新的支撑，A股市场有望继续上行，跨年行情值得期待，新能源、 消费等板块具备投资价值。 人民币资产受全球资本配置青睐 今年以来，全球经济复苏分化、美国关税政策扰动、美联储降息博弈、美股AI泡沫讨论持续、中国资产重估叙事等多重因素相互交织，驱动着各类资产估 值重构与资金流向调整。全球资本正重新评估不同区域资产的风险收益比，并调整相关资产配置。 A股有望继续向上拓展空间 从今年全球大类资产配置来看，两条核心主线已清晰显现。九方智投首席投顾黄伟分析认为，第一条主线是避险，黄金等贵金属价格大幅上涨，成为全球资 金的重要选择，各国央行持续增持黄金，进一步印证了市场避险需求旺盛。第二条主线是风险资产的"洼地效应"，尽管全球股票市场流动性依然充裕，但美 债收益率上 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including technology, manufacturing, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods [1][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The index is expected to rise to 4,200-4,300 points from December to February, driven by product structure adjustments and increased capital inflow, alongside supportive policies from the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. 2. **Valuation Expansion**: The Chinese market is currently in a valuation expansion phase, with reduced fears of sanctions due to changing perceptions of US-China relations and rationalized economic policies [4][6]. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: - **Technology Sector**: Focus on AI, internet, new energy vehicles, electronic semiconductors, and media communications [5]. - **Manufacturing**: Global expansion in power equipment, machinery, and auto parts [5]. - **Aviation**: Strong fundamentals with record high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, indicating a potential super cycle [10]. - **Oil Shipping**: Record high freight rates expected to lead to the highest profits in a decade due to OPEC production increases and geopolitical factors [11]. - **Chemicals**: Optimism for leading companies benefiting from supply-side optimization and cost advantages [3][16]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in food, beverages, and retail sectors, particularly for companies with low stock and strong fundamentals [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Recovery**: The upcoming year is expected to show a high probability of economic recovery, particularly in traditional sectors like cyclical and consumer goods [6]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with low stock prices and strong fundamentals, especially in the consumer goods sector [7][9]. 3. **Brokerage Role**: Brokerages are anticipated to play a crucial role in market advancement, especially as capital market reforms progress [8]. 4. **Metal Industry Outlook**: Positive expectations for the metal sector, with industrial metals likely to benefit from global liquidity and emerging demands from AI infrastructure and new energy vehicles [18][19]. 5. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector has seen significant supply-side optimization, with leading companies expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and pricing [13][14][16]. 6. **Oil Market Dynamics**: Current oil market conditions show a supply surplus, but OPEC's cautious production increases are expected to support prices in the medium term [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese market across various sectors, with specific recommendations for investment opportunities in technology, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods. The anticipated economic recovery and supportive policies are expected to drive market performance in the coming months.

11月5日， 市场低开高走，沪指、创业板指均翻红。板块方面， 电网设备概念股爆发，摩恩电气、中能电气、神马电力2连板，特变电工 涨停创新高。泛消费概念股集体走强，凯撒旅业、安记食品等多股涨停。煤炭板块反复活跃，安泰集团15天9板，宝泰隆直线涨停。 近期市场持续 震荡，短线投机情绪再度升温。对于投资者， 把握热点轮动节奏尤为关键 。 当前距离2025年收官 已不足两个月，正值年末布局的 关键时点，如何以更低成本捕捉更多"资讯红利"，实现"四两拨千斤"的效果 ？ 财联社VIP携11.11大促早鸟秒杀专场来了！ 扫码添加下方客服，可咨询 活动。 财联社11.11大促早鸟秒杀专场来了，订阅3个月享88折再减￥111 11月5日00:00-24:00，财联社VIP推出 11.5早鸟秒杀 —— 订阅任意10款VIP资讯3个月，在活动折扣（88折）的基础上再减111元 ，用 户能以更低成本配置"信息宝典"，应对年末投研关键期。 秒杀仅限24小时，错过再无！ 点击此处，跳转至财联社11.11大促主会场 以两大王牌产品来举个例子： 短线王牌《盘中宝》选订3个月原价4888元 → 88折后4300元 → 折上减111元 → 1财 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations in the morning session, with coal, gaming, and media sectors leading in gains, while battery, precious metals, and semiconductor sectors saw declines [1] - As of 11:05, the CSI A500 index fell by 0.6%, and the A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) saw a net subscription exceeding 130 million units during the session, with over 1.3 billion yuan net inflow in the past 10 trading days [1] - Citic Securities noted that the current index level at 4000 points is significantly better than the same period in 2015, with a notably lower valuation level, suggesting that there is no need to overly focus on the index point itself [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index consists of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, covering 91 out of 93 sub-industries, reflecting the overall performance of representative companies in A-shares from a balanced industry perspective [2] - Emerging industries such as information technology, communication services, and healthcare have a higher weight in the index, catering to both "core assets" and "new productive forces" [2] - Investors looking for balanced broad-based investments can consider products like the A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) for allocation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The underlying logic of the bull market remains intact, supported by ample liquidity and limited downward adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Capital market reforms are stabilizing expectations, with multiple measures promoting market upgrades [1] - Structural prosperity continues to serve as a driving force for the market [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - A style switch has already begun, with short-term focus on "countermeasures + risk aversion" themes due to US-China tensions [1] - At year-end, profit realization and seasonal effects typically favor dividend and large-cap growth styles [1] - After sufficient adjustment and recovery in the technology sector, a year-end rally is expected in high-prosperity sectors if liquidity remains abundant [1]

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】红十月，备战跨年行情 原创 阅读全文 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant emotional recovery during the trading week from December 16 to December 20, with a notable rebound after initial declines [1] - The market was primarily driven by two major directions: the recovery of technology growth style and core asset performance [5][9] Market Performance - A total of 4,126 stocks declined this week, marking the second-highest number of declining stocks since the significant corrections in early October and mid-November [4] - The technology sector showed strength, highlighted by the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 index, while the North Stock 50 index ended a nine-day losing streak with gains on Thursday and Friday [3] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved, with individual investor sentiment reaching historical highs, while institutional sentiment showed signs of recovery, indicating a potential strong market phase [8][9] - The market is expected to stabilize in the coming days, with the Shanghai Composite Index's 60-day moving average serving as a support level [9] Future Outlook - The upcoming week is anticipated to see a "cross-year market," characterized by a phase of rising stock prices as the year ends, typically occurring from November to early February [11][12] - The market liquidity remains ample, with expectations of continued support from the central bank, which may inject significant funds into the market [10][13] Sector Focus - Short-term focus should remain on technology growth and core assets, particularly in sectors like electronics, communications, and military technology, which are expected to benefit from policy and industry trends [10][19] - The AI glasses concept has gained attention, with companies like Rokid and Doctor Glasses being highlighted for their collaborations, potentially driving stock performance in this niche [18][19] Upcoming Events - Key economic reports are set to be released, including the monthly report on industrial economic efficiency and the price changes of important production materials, which could impact market sentiment [20][21] - A total of 67 companies will have their restricted shares released next week, amounting to 7.068 billion shares, which could influence stock prices [22]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction and most broad-based indices recorded declines at the close [1] - The Politburo meeting's announcement was significantly more optimistic than expected, leading to a surge in Hong Kong and FTSE A50 indices [1][2] - The meeting indicated that the GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024 is likely to be achieved, boosting market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies to stimulate domestic demand and promote innovation, which is seen as a positive outlook for 2025 [1][2] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is expected to eliminate risks of significant declines, encouraging capital inflows [1][2] Group 3 - The market adjustment was primarily due to concerns over policy uncertainties ahead of important meetings, leading to some investors withdrawing funds [3] - The dividend index and large-cap indices saw gains, while the ChiNext and small-cap indices experienced larger declines [4] Group 4 - The dividend style remains supported, while growth-oriented stocks have shown a notable pullback, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite [5] - Long-term capital is expected to be a significant source of incremental funds in the market, with the dividend style likely to perform well [5] Group 5 - A sharp rise in the market is not expected to be sustainable, and investors are advised to avoid chasing high prices after significant increases [6] - The total trading volume for the day was 16,345 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,543 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9]