Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Carbonate lithium futures hit a new high for the year, with total positions increasing by 5991 and the pace of capital entry slowing. The 01 - 05 spread widened to 1920. Spot prices across the industry chain rose, but demand showed signs of slowing at the end of the year. With an expected difference in supply and a slight slowdown in demand, the de - stocking intensity of carbonate lithium is expected to stop falling and rise, and carbonate lithium futures are likely to rise rather than fall [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures reached a new high for the year, with total positions increasing by 5991 and the capital entry pace slowing. The 01 - 05 spread widened to 1920. The price of electric carbonate rose by 500 to 99,500, Australian ore rose by 35 to 1420, mica ore rose by 205 to 3125, ternary materials rose by 200 - 300, iron - lithium materials rose by 115 - 120, and the electrolyte price remained flat. Demand at the end of the year slowed significantly, with the weekly production of power lithium batteries, ternary, and iron - lithium materials all slowing last week, and the weekly de - stocking volume slowing for three consecutive weeks [9] 2. Industry News - Exar Minera, a joint - venture between Ganfeng Lithium and Lithium Argentina (LAR), applied for Argentina's Large - scale Investment Incentive System (RIGI) for its Cauchari - Olaroz lithium salt lake project to support its capacity expansion plan. The project aims to increase the annual production scale by 45,000 tons of carbonate lithium, raising the total capacity to 85,000 tons per year. The project plans to use direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology instead of traditional brine evaporation. The Argentine government stated that RIGI - related decisions will take up to 45 working days if no additional information is required [10] - China's carbonate lithium imports in November 2025 were 22,055.19 tons, a 7.64% decrease from the previous month and a 14.66% increase year - on - year. Chile was the largest import source, with imports of 10,824.66 tons in that month, a 26.84% decrease from the previous month and an 11.19% decrease year - on - year. Argentina was the second - largest import source, with imports of 8,042.91 tons, a 10.57% increase from the previous month and a 28.28% increase year - on - year [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and weak demand, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate weakly under position limits. It is recommended to hold short positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Price**: On December 10, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 93,640 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,060 yuan compared to December 9; the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 620,935 hands, an increase of 108,720 hands; the open interest was 605,453 hands, an increase of 30,032 hands [1] - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 440 yuan, the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was - 80 yuan, and the spread between the second - consecutive and the third - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan [1] - **Inventory**: The registered inventory was 1,368 tons, an increase of 760 tons [1] 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,178 US dollars/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,640 yuan/ton [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 92,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 10.2 US dollars/kg [1] - **Other Products**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) was 171,000 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 106,050 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Lithium Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, with a decrease in the output of salt - lake lithium carbonate and an increase in the output of lithium carbonate from other raw materials [1] - **Demand**: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased; in December, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate decreased; last week, the output of power batteries increased; in November, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments weakened; the production scheduling growth of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1] 3.4 Lithium Inventory - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: the inventory of smelters was 20,767 tons, the inventory of downstream was 41,984 tons, and the inventory of others was 49,140 tons. The total inventory decreased by 2,366 tons compared to the previous week [1] 3.5 Industry News - Standard Lithium and Equinor's joint - venture Smackover Lithium announced that its Arkansas Smackover project has attracted over $1.1 billion in financing intentions, covering 76% of the $1.45 billion construction cost of Phase I. The project uses uncommercialized direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology but faces challenges [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and weak demand, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate weakly under position limits. It is recommended to hold short positions [1] Summary by Relevant Content Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - On December 10, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures oscillated upward. The trading volume was 620,935 hands (+108,720), and the open interest was 605,453 hands (+30,032) [1] - The prices of different contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) all increased compared with previous data, with price increases ranging from 3,080 yuan/ton to 3,180 yuan/ton [1] Spot Market - The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis discount widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose [1] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, while that from other raw materials increased [1] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. In December, the production plan of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In November, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments weakened; the growth of the production plan of energy - storage batteries in December stagnated [1] Inventory - The registered inventory was 13,680 tons (+760), and the social inventory decreased. Refineries and other sectors destocked, while downstream sectors also destocked [1] Industry News - Standard Lithium and Equinor's joint - venture Smackover Lithium project in Arkansas has attracted over $1.1 billion in financing intentions, covering 76% of the $1.45 - billion construction cost of Phase I. The project uses direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology but faces challenges such as the complexity of brine composition and the stability of recovery rates [1]

Core Insights - A lithium mine has been discovered in Germany's Altmark region, with a total resource estimate of 43 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, nearly half of South America's total proven reserves [1][5][10] - The location is strategically advantageous, being close to major automotive manufacturing hubs, which reduces transportation costs and enhances supply chain stability [1][6] - The project utilizes Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology, which is more environmentally friendly and efficient compared to traditional methods [1][12][25] Resource and Production Potential - The planned demonstration plant aims to produce 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually, sufficient for 200,000 to 300,000 electric vehicle battery packs [2][5] - The total resource of 43 million tons could support production for over 80 years at a conservative extraction rate of 2-3 million tons per year [5][21] - The project is expected to generate a total economic output of €6.4 billion and create 1,500 high-skilled jobs [6][21][22] Strategic Importance - The project aligns with the EU's "Critical Raw Materials Act," emphasizing the need for Europe to secure its own raw material supply chains [1][5] - It addresses the current reliance on imports for lithium, which has led to price volatility and supply chain disruptions for European automakers [1][6][10] - The DLE technology's low water usage and minimal land disruption make it suitable for the European context, where environmental regulations are stringent [12][24] Market Dynamics - The global lithium market is undergoing structural changes, with the International Energy Agency predicting a tripling of lithium demand by 2030 due to electric vehicles and energy storage needs [5][10] - The project could help stabilize lithium prices in Europe, reducing dependency on South American and Australian sources, which face various development challenges [5][10][21] - The establishment of a local lithium supply chain could enhance the competitiveness of European battery manufacturers and contribute to the EU's carbon neutrality goals [10][15][20] Technological and Operational Considerations - The DLE technology, developed in collaboration with Lilac Solutions, has shown promising results in pilot tests, with a lithium recovery rate exceeding 80% [1][12][25] - The project leverages existing natural gas infrastructure, minimizing the need for new drilling and reducing environmental impact [1][12][24] - Ongoing pilot tests are focused on optimizing the efficiency and longevity of the extraction materials used in the DLE process [1][12][25] Community and Regulatory Aspects - Local government support has been expressed, with commitments to streamline approval processes for the project [4][6] - The project aims to address community concerns regarding environmental impacts through transparent communication and adherence to strict EU regulations [24][25] - The transition from fossil fuels to lithium extraction is seen as a potential economic revitalization for the region, providing new job opportunities and sustaining local communities [22][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to continue to rebound due to the approaching supply inflection point and continuous inventory reduction, with the current futures price approaching the spot price [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract closing above 80,000. The total open interest increased by 25,948 lots. The spot price of electric carbon decreased by 100 to 80,400. Australian ore and lithium mica ore remained flat, ternary materials remained flat, lithium iron phosphate decreased by 20 - 30, and electrolytes increased by 250 - 1,000. The industry chain continued to show resistance to decline, and the upward trend of electrolytes remained unchanged [12]. - Social inventories decreased by 3,405 tons this week, compared with a decrease of 3,008 tons the previous week, indicating an increasing de - stocking effort [12]. 3.2 Industry News - Australia's PrairieLithium has started the construction of the largest direct lithium extraction (DLE) plant in North America in Canada. It is expected to receive 4 commercial - scale DLE columns in April 2026. The project has over 345,000 acres of underground mining permits and inferred and controlled resources equivalent to about 4.6 million tons of lithium carbonate, providing long - term supply security [13]. - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium mine phase - I project in Mali was officially launched on November 3. As of now, the project has produced over 45,000 tons of spodumene. The phase - I target annual production capacity is 125,000 tons, with an average lithium oxide grade of 5.5% [13][14]. - Chile's customs data shows that in October, Chile's lithium exports were 27,562 tons, including 24,769 tons of lithium carbonate. Exports of lithium carbonate to China were 16,210 tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease but a 46% month - on - month increase [14].