交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为21822吨 环比增长8 11% ， . , | 。 | | | 高于历史同期平均水平 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为92556吨 环比增加0 ， . | 50% 上周三元材料样 , | | | | | | | 本企业库存为17234吨 ， | 环比减少2 99% 。 . | | | | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为168303元/吨 日环比减少0 ， . | 55% 生产所得为1457 , | | | | | 1 、 | 基本面: | 元/吨 有所盈利 | 外购锂云母成本为164301元/吨 日环比减少1 | 38% 生产所得为 | | 中性 。 | | | | | ， ； | ， . | , | | | | | | | 1790元/吨 有所盈利 ， ； | 回收端生产成本接近矿石端成本 ， | 排产积极性一般 盐湖端季 ； | | | | | | | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | | 供给端来看 上周碳酸锂产量为21822吨 环比增长8 11% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， ， . 。 , | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为92556吨 环比增加0 50% 上周三元材料 ， ， . , ， 。 . 成本端来看 外购锂辉石精矿成本为169235元/吨 日环比增长5 01% 生产所得为 ， ， . , | | | | | 样本企业库存为17234吨 环比减少2 99% | | 1 | 基本面: | | 中性 | | | 、 | | 。 1515元/吨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年2月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20184吨，环比减少2.69%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为92097吨，环比减少3.08%,上周三元材料样 本企业库存为17767吨，环比减少2.60%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为145499元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-3229元/ 吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为146416元/吨，日环比增长3.00%,生产所得为74元/ 吨，有所盈利；回收端生产成本接近矿石端成本，排产积极性一般；盐湖端季度现金生 产成本为32231元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿石端，盈利空间充足，排产动力十足 ...

国外 1. 瑞银：美联储降息及地缘政治风险加剧的背景下，金价将升至6200美元 瑞银重申对黄金的积极立场，预计未来数月国际现货黄金目标价达6200美元/盎司。分析师认为，在美 国与伊朗紧张局势下，地缘政治风险将持续高企，而美联储宽松周期预计将继续，对实际利率构成压 力。分析师指出，2025年全球黄金需求突破5000吨，瑞银预计，在更强劲的投资流动和各国央行持续购 买的推动下，金价将进一步上涨。供应方面，增长似乎受限。虽然金价高企可能激励勘探活动，但咨询 公司伍德麦肯兹估计，到2028年，约有80座矿山将耗尽当前的生产计划，这表明短期内供应弹性有限。 2. 高盛：央行购金叠加私人投资，金价年底前将缓慢攀升至5400美元 高盛预计，黄金价格将逐步攀升，到2026年底达到5400美元/盎司，多元化配置将带来上行空间。与此 同时，高盛预计2026年央行购金活动将以2025年所见的步伐再度加速。其核心观点是，央行需求加上私 人投资者增加持仓（主要因应对美联储降息而增持）支撑金价稳步上涨。高盛指出，如果私营部门的多 元化举措（尤其是看涨期权结构）有所增加，那么市场将面临显著的上行风险。此外，中期趋势虽仍呈 上升态势，但可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid rise in lithium carbonate futures is shifting the lithium industry from a "real-time loose" trading framework to a "forward tight" pricing logic, driven by reduced capital expenditure and accelerated storage demand, leading to heightened expectations for lithium price increases [1][2]. Supply - Capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the lithium sector has entered a cyclical low due to price declines, with global lithium resource capacity growth projected at only 17.1% for 2024-2025, and 20%-25% for 2026-2027, indicating limited effective incremental supply [5][7]. - Regulatory changes, such as the new Mineral Resources Law effective July 1, 2025, and stricter mining rights reviews in regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, are creating structural delays in supply [7]. Demand - The key demand driver is energy storage, with global lithium demand expected to reach approximately 194,000 tons of LCE in 2026, with energy storage demand projected to grow by about 55% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 30% of total demand [8]. - The expansion of wind and solar installations, grid upgrades, and increased reliance on electrochemical storage for AI infrastructure are contributing to this demand growth [8]. Price - The lithium industry is expected to complete a phase of bottoming out by 2025 and enter an upward turning point, with pricing logic shifting from current loose conditions to future scarcity [10][12]. - Price forecasts for lithium carbonate in 2026 are set between 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, with potential for further increases under tight supply conditions [12]. Geopolitical and Policy Factors - Lithium is classified as a "critical mineral" in the U.S., EU, and China, which may amplify market pricing due to policy adjustments and strategic reserve behaviors from resource countries [14]. - Various geopolitical factors, such as potential nationalization of lithium resources in Chile and Mexico's classification of lithium as a strategic mineral, could impact supply dynamics [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a bullish outlook on the lithium industry, particularly in China, driven by increased demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, marking the onset of a third lithium price supercycle [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium stocks have shown strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 8.56% to HKD 66.5 and Tianqi Lithium increasing by 3.17% to HKD 45.5 [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - UBS has significantly raised its price forecasts for spodumene and lithium carbonate, indicating a positive market trend [1] - The firm believes that the demand for lithium will continue to grow due to the gradual realization of the "triple balance" in electric vehicles and a global surge in energy storage needs [1] Group 3: Company Projections - Ganfeng Lithium is expected to achieve a net profit between RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 1.65 billion for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a recovery in the lithium battery supply chain [1] - The industry is anticipated to maintain high lithium prices until mining permits are obtained for the Jiangxi lithium mine, with profitability expected to rebound by 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is set to open after the Spring Festival, with investors keenly watching for a "good start" in trading, influenced by the positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market during the holiday period [2] Group 1: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong performance during the Spring Festival, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing upward trends, while traditional sectors like dairy and media lagged [2][3] - Gold stocks surged due to rising international gold prices, with Zijin Mining up over 8% and Shandong Gold up 7.53% during the holiday [3] - The renewable energy sector also performed well, with companies like Ruipu Lanjun and Ganfeng Lithium seeing significant gains, driven by optimistic forecasts for lithium prices [3] Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector, particularly AI infrastructure, saw notable gains, with Longi Green Energy rising over 15% as demand for optical fibers surged due to AI data center construction [4] - Companies in the AI and robotics space, such as MINIMAX and Yujian, experienced substantial increases, reflecting heightened market interest in AI technologies [5] Group 3: Market Outlook Post-Festival - Historical data indicates a 75% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the five days following the Spring Festival, suggesting a positive market sentiment [9] - Various brokerages have differing views on post-festival investment opportunities, with a focus on technology growth, small-cap stocks, and sectors benefiting from policy changes [10] - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to catalyze market movements, with infrastructure projects likely to see seasonal opportunities [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by optimistic forecasts from UBS regarding lithium prices and demand, indicating the market has entered a third super cycle for lithium prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium stocks have shown strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rising by 8.56% to HKD 66.5 and Tianqi Lithium (09696) increasing by 3.17% to HKD 45.5 [1] Group 2: Price Predictions - UBS has notably raised its price forecasts for lithium spodumene and lithium carbonate, emphasizing a sustained increase in lithium demand due to the "triple balance" in electric vehicles and a global surge in energy storage needs [1] Group 3: Company Outlook - UBS highlighted three Chinese lithium companies: Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and China Salt Lake, and has upgraded their performance expectations [1] - According to DBS, Ganfeng Lithium is projected to achieve a net profit between CNY 1.1 billion and CNY 1.65 billion for the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 4: Industry Trends - The lithium battery supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with multiple lithium companies reporting positive earnings forecasts for 2025 [1] - It is anticipated that lithium prices will remain high until mining permits are obtained for the Jiangxi lithium mine, with industry profitability expected to rebound by 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming opening of the A-share market is expected to be influenced by significant capital inflows and key industry trends, particularly in technology growth and Chinese advantages. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Over 900 billion yuan of incremental capital is set to enter the market, primarily from stock ETFs and newly established active equity funds that have yet to build positions [4] - The core investment themes for the year are identified as technology growth and Chinese advantages, which are crucial for institutional investors' strategies [4] Group 2: Technology Growth - OpenAI is reportedly finalizing a financing round exceeding 100 billion dollars, which will elevate its valuation to over 850 billion dollars, indicating a strong push towards an IPO [5] - Domestic companies like Huagong Technology are experiencing high demand for AI optical modules, with orders extending into Q4, reflecting robust growth in the AI supply chain [6] - The storage chip market is expected to see price increases throughout the year due to strong demand from AI clients, as indicated by SK Hynix's forecasts [6] Group 3: Chinese Advantages - UBS has raised its gold price target to 6,200 dollars per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are favorable for gold as a long-term asset [7] - The lithium sector is gaining attention, with UBS predicting a new super cycle for lithium prices due to stable demand from electric vehicles and explosive growth in energy storage [8] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Two new stocks are set to open for subscription next week, with companies showing consistent revenue and profit growth, presenting potential investment opportunities [8] - The Hong Kong market has seen significant capital inflows despite a decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index, indicating potential value in undervalued stocks [9] - Recent changes in U.S. trade policy may impact global trade dynamics, particularly affecting export-related sectors [9] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - The primary investment focus should be on companies with solid earnings support and reasonable valuations, avoiding those with only speculative narratives [10] - Investors are advised to monitor the actual flow of funds in the market before making investment decisions, especially with the influx of new capital [10]

2月初以及春节假期期间，全球顶级投研机构瑞银接连发布报告，旗帜鲜明看好"中国锂"，不仅大幅上调锂辉石、碳酸锂价格预 测，还明确市场已进入第三次锂价超级周期。 报告指出，电动汽车"三重平衡"逐步落地、储能需求全球爆发将推动锂需求持续增长，同时重点提及天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、中国 盐湖三家中国锂企并上调相关企业预期。 不过业内人士表示，瑞银对市场供应释放能力的判断较为保守，对储能电池需求爆发力则存在过高估计（锂价高，储能成本承 压）。 瑞银持续看好中国电动汽车、储能市场 "大年初五迎财神"，民间谚语寄托着人们对财富的向往。春节期间，全球锂产业迎来一则利好消息——全球顶级投研机构瑞银旗 帜鲜明看好"中国锂"。 2月18日，瑞银官网发布分析报告称，电动汽车已接近实现业内所说的"三重平衡"，这一此前仅停留在理论层面的目标如今正逐步 成为现实。瑞银电动汽车团队近期拆解了五款下一代电池单元，以此研判电动汽车行业的发展速度。 分析结果显示，行业正迎来关键转折点：电动汽车与传统汽车在成本、续航里程及充电时间上的差距正持续缩小，备受期待的"三 重平衡"已触手可及。 数据显示，当前单一电池的总成本已降至每千瓦时55美元，较2020年瑞 ...