Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has made progress on its Sierra Leone lithium project, expecting an annual production capacity of approximately 2 million tons, with plans to commence production next year and establish a stable supply [1] Group 1: Project Development - The Sierra Leone lithium project has received government support and has been granted mining rights [1] - The Goulamina spodumene has a very high grade, providing significant cost advantages [1] Group 2: Operational Stability - The Goulamina lithium project utilizes energy from local and neighboring African countries, minimizing exposure to disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East oil crisis [1] - Security conditions are manageable with support from the Malian government, and there have been no reported safety incidents, ensuring smooth production and transportation [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Ganfeng Lithium's Mount Marion lithium spodumene project primarily relies on the power grid for electricity, resulting in low dependence on diesel for power generation [1] - However, the company still requires diesel for transportation and mining operations, indicating that fluctuations in oil prices could impact logistics and transportation costs across the industry in the long term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lithium resources are near a tight balance. With the expansion of the demand base, the available inventory days will show a downward trend, and the lithium price center should rise marginally [105][116]. - In Q2 2026, both supply and demand of lithium carbonate will increase. It is still expected to reduce inventory, but the reduction amplitude may decline compared to Q1. In Q3, if the supply from Zimbabwe and Jianxiaowo resumes, inventory may accumulate, but inventory reduction is expected again at the end of the year due to export rush [105][116]. - The price of lithium carbonate in Q2 2026 may fluctuate widely between 125,000 - 250,000 yuan/ton, with a center around 140,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [116]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q4 2025, the explosion of energy - storage demand and the less - than - expected resumption of production at Jianxiaowo drove the rapid increase of lithium carbonate prices. In Q1 2026, the market continued to rise sharply and then entered a wide - range shock [7]. - In early and mid - January 2026, due to multiple factors such as Trump's attack on Venezuela, cathode material manufacturers' joint production cut to support prices, the implementation of the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, and the resurgence of the Jiangxi mining license issue, the market price soared from 125,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to a high of 189,000 yuan/ton, a 51% increase [7]. - From mid - to late January to early February 2026, due to exchange macro - regulation and Trump's nomination of Wash, which triggered concerns about balance - sheet reduction, the market price dropped to a minimum of 124,000 yuan/ton by early February, a 34% decline [7]. - After the Spring Festival to late February 2026, downstream demand recovered after the Spring Festival, and SMM inventory decreased significantly for several consecutive weeks. On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all lithium ore exports, and the next day the market price jumped up, reaching a maximum of 188,000 yuan/ton, with a 52% increase in this stage [7]. - Since late February 2026, after the US - Israel's strike on Iran on February 28th and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the non - ferrous metals sector fell collectively. Subsequently, the market price fluctuated widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the continuous postponement of Zimbabwe's resumption time has again raised market concerns about supply [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Global Lithium Resource Production - In 2025, the global lithium resource production was about 1.675 million tons LCE. In 2026, it is expected to be about 2.207 million tons LCE, with an increase of 532,000 tons [8][9]. - In Q1 - Q4 2026, the global lithium resource production is expected to be 478,000 tons, 527,000 tons, 590,000 tons, and 613,000 tons LCE respectively [8]. 3.2.2 Regional Supply - **Australia**: The annual production of Australian mines will increase by 60,000 tons to 520,000 tons LCE. Some mines have adjusted their production guidance upwards, while some mines are currently shut down or plan to restart [8][10][12]. - **America**: The annual production of American spodumene will increase by 11,000 tons to 84,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of American salt lakes will increase by 84,000 tons to 510,000 tons LCE [8][9][15]. - **Africa**: The annual production in Africa will increase by 140,000 tons to 380,000 tons LCE. The main increments come from pre - built mines, and some new mines are planned to be put into production [8][9][16]. - **China**: The annual production of Chinese spodumene will increase by 55,000 tons to 132,000 tons LCE, the annual production of Chinese salt lakes will increase by 100,000 tons to 260,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of Chinese mica will increase by 50,000 tons to 195,000 tons LCE [8][9][24]. 3.2.3 Supply Disruptions - On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports. It is expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons LCE, and the resumption time is still to be determined [22]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - **China**: In 2025, the domestic sales of Chinese passenger cars were 12.996 million, with a penetration rate of 54%. In 2026, it is expected to be 13.37 million, with a penetration rate peak of 65%. The domestic sales of Chinese commercial vehicles were 863,100 in 2025, and it is expected to be 1.232 million in 2026, with a penetration rate peak of 47% [42][46]. - **Europe**: It is expected that the high - growth trend in 2026 will continue, with a year - on - year increase of 30% to 5.27 million vehicles [54]. - **North America**: It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles in North America will decline by 10% to 1.57 million vehicles in 2026 [55]. 3.3.2 Energy - Storage Market - **China**: In 2024 - 2025, the winning bids for new energy storage in China were 171 GWh and 420 GWh respectively, with year - on - year increases of 52% and 145%. In 2025, the new installed capacity was 197 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 84%. In 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [68]. - **USA**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the US was 50.99 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 40%. It is expected to increase by 27% and 3% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. - **Europe**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of electrical energy storage in Europe was 27 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 45%. It is expected to increase by 46% and 42% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. 3.3.3 Cathode Material and Cell Market - In January - February 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 745,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55%; the production of ternary cathode materials was 152,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48% [86]. - In January - February 2026, the production of power cells was 222 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 31%; the production of energy - storage cells was 119 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 91% [86]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Overseas**: The inventory days of Australian mines have dropped to about 1 month [91]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of February, the lithium ore inventory of domestic sample lithium salt plants was 114,000 tons LCE, with inventory days of 1.4 months, and the mine inventory was only 8,000 tons LCE. The inventory of domestic spodumene is about 140,000 tons LCE, and the inventory days have dropped to about 2 months [91]. - **Market Inventory**: The overall/upstream/downstream/mid - stream SMM inventory as of March 26th was 99,000/17,000/46,000/36,000 tons respectively, with inventory days of 27.9/4.9/13.1/10 days respectively. There is also off - balance - sheet inventory, but its magnitude has a large variance [92]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - For new energy vehicle enterprises, when the lithium carbonate price rises to 206,800 yuan/ton, the net profit of leading new energy vehicle enterprises will reach zero. High costs may lead to negative demand feedback in the long run [111][112]. - For the energy - storage market, after the implementation of the capacity - price mechanism policy, taking Shanxi Province as an example, the internal rate of return (IRR) of energy storage can reach 7.85%. If the energy storage only needs to meet the minimum rate of return of 6.5%, the acceptable increase in the cell price is 0.05 yuan/Wh, and the acceptable increase in the lithium carbonate price is 100,000 yuan/ton [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,814 tons, a 2.59% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, production was 83,090 physical tons, and next month's production is forecasted to be 106,390 tons, a 28.04% increase. February's import volume was 21,800 physical tons, and next month's is predicted to be 26,000 tons, a 19.27% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 107,734 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,992 tons, a 3.08% increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased daily, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 159,158 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 3,183 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 151,428 yuan/ton, a 3.96% daily increase, with a profit of 1,295 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling end is generally higher than that on the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end [9][10]. - Market outlook: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 164,220 - 174,540. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, or maintenance plans and the start time of industry clearance [9][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply and demand: Supply is increasing, and demand shows a certain upward trend in inventory. The overall supply - demand relationship is in a state of tight balance [8][9]. - Cost and profit: The cost of lithium spodumene has increased, resulting in a loss, while the cost of lithium mica has also increased, but there is still a profit. The cost on the salt lake end is low, with sufficient profit margins [10]. - Market sentiment: There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the production reduction plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market data**: The closing prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase. For example, the closing price of 01 lithium carbonate futures was 169,380 yuan/ton, a 7.00% increase from the previous value. The price of lithium spodumene (6%) was 2,230 US dollars/ton, a 0.90% increase [16]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 0.96% higher than the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 15.13%. The production of various sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake all decreased to varying degrees [19]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and other products decreased. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 12.20%. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased by 37.38% [19]. - **Inventory data**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 99,489 tons, a 0.62% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average. The inventory of downstream enterprises was 46,657 tons, a 1.20% increase, higher than the historical average [10][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the uncertainty in lithium supply is increasing, and lithium prices are expected to continue rising [3] - Copper prices are anticipated to remain under pressure due to stagflation risks, with short-term fluctuations expected [5] - Aluminum prices are projected to maintain high volatility due to overseas supply disruptions and stagflation trading [5] - The lithium market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with demand expected to grow, leading to a potential upward trend in lithium prices [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, driven by downstream restocking [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown resilience, with the overall performance of the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.87 percentage points [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.04, indicating a 2.08 increase, while the PB_LF is 3.59, reflecting a 0.26 increase [20] 2. Industrial Metals Copper - London copper prices decreased by 0.11%, while Shanghai copper prices increased by 1.26% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant reduction, with a 12.64% decrease in Shanghai copper inventory [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices fell by 1.43%, while Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly by 0.08% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing pressure from increasing domestic inventory and potential supply expansions [5] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 6.04% to 158,000 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 8.41% to 2,230 USD/ton [69] - The lithium supply chain is experiencing disruptions, particularly from Zimbabwe and Australia, which may impact future supply [5] Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.38% to 26.25 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices decreased by 2.06% to 427,000 CNY/ton [84] - Cobalt supply is expected to improve as export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo are set to be lifted [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 154,160 - 164,600. The overall situation is a tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The supply side is expected to increase in the next month, while the demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The cost - side 6% concentrate CIF price has a daily - on - daily increase, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened [10][11][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [7] - **Basis**: Bearish. On March 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,620 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11] - **Disk**: Neutral. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [11] - **Main Position**: Bearish. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [11] - **Expectation**: On the supply side, the lithium carbonate production in February 2026 was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, the demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily - on - week increase, lower than the historical average [11] - **Liberal Factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, and the month - on - month decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [12] - **Bearish Factors**: The supply from the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [13] - **Main Logic**: Tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate last week was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase. The monthly production in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in February was 26,426.79 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease [7][20] - **Demand - side Data**: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises last week was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the weekly inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron was 300,250 tons, a 7.67% month - on - month decrease; the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron - lithium was 348,200 tons, a 12.20% month - on - month decrease [7][20] - **Inventory Data**: The smelter inventory was 16,608 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 46,105 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 36,160 tons, a 2.32% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 98,873 tons, a 0.08% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price Trend**: The price of 6% lithium ore (CIF) is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical price trends [27] - **Production and Import**: The production of Chinese sample lithium - spodumene mines and the total domestic lithium - mica production are presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical production trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate is also presented, including imports from Australia and other countries [27] - **Self - sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rates of lithium - spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium - mica are presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical self - sufficiency rate trends [27] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [27] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [29] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly production and capacity utilization rates of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends. The monthly production of lithium carbonate by grade (battery - grade and industrial - grade) and by raw material (lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) is also presented [32] - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical import trends [32] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [37] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production by source (causticization and smelting) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [40] - **Export**: The monthly export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide from 2020 to 2026 is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical export trends [40] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [43] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Ore**: The production cost and profit of外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O:6%) and外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O:2.5%) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends. The processing cost composition of lithium - mica and lithium - spodumene is also presented [46] - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate Recycling**: The cost and profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from different types of black powder (phosphoric acid iron - lithium battery black powder, phosphoric acid iron - lithium pole - piece black powder, ternary pole - piece black powder, and ternary battery black powder) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends [48] - **Other Cost and Profit**: The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, the processing cost difference between lithium hydroxide coarse particles and fine particles, the profit and cost of smelting and causticizing lithium hydroxide, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the profit of lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends [48][50][51] 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical inventory trends [53] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory and downstream inventory, is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [53] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - **Price and Production**: The price trends of different types of batteries (523 square, power - square phosphoric acid iron - lithium, and energy - storage 280Ah square phosphoric acid iron - lithium) are presented. The monthly production of power - cell cores (power ternary and power phosphoric acid iron - lithium) and the monthly loading volume of power batteries (phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials) are also presented [57] - **Export**: The monthly export volume of lithium batteries from 2020 to 2026 is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical export trends [57] - **Cost**: The cost trend of cell cores is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical cost trends [57] 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of lithium - battery cell cores (power ternary, power phosphoric acid iron - lithium, and energy - storage batteries) and the monthly production of energy - storage cell cores are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [59] - **Bidding and Cost**: The energy - storage system EPC bidding and the cost - price trend of 314Ah phosphoric acid iron - lithium energy - storage cell cores are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [59] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price trends of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series) and the cost and profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary precursors are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [62] - **Capacity and Production**: The capacity utilization rate, capacity, and monthly production of ternary precursors are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [62] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [65] 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost**: The price trends of different types of ternary materials (5 - series and 6 - series) and the cost and profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [68] - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly production rate, capacity, and weekly inventory of ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [68][71] - **Export and Import**: The monthly export and import volumes of ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [71] 3.12 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium - **Price and Cost**: The price trends of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium and the production cost of phosphoric acid iron are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [72] - **Capacity and Production**: The capacity, monthly production, and monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [72][75] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [77] 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [80] - **Penetration Rate and Inventory Index**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the retail - to - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles, and the dealer inventory warning and inventory indexes are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [81][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's production at 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The production in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials has increased. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 106,718 tons last week, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [8]. - The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate is 147,976 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 1,854 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica is 137,582 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 5,025 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 144,000 - 154,840 [9]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of production suspension, reduction, and maintenance plans, and the start time of industry clearance [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 106,718 tons last week, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate is 147,976 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 1,854 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica is 137,582 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 5,025 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Market judgment**: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 144,000 - 154,840. The fundamentals are bullish, the basis is bearish, the inventory situation is mixed, the disk is bearish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [9]. - **Likely factors**: The production suspension and reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile are positive factors. The continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline is a negative factor [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market price data**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene decreased by 1.41% to 2,028 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.12% to 4,400 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.68% to 146,500 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.71% to 143,500 yuan/ton; the price of micro - powder lithium hydroxide decreased by 2.36% to 145,000 yuan/ton; the price of coarse - particle lithium hydroxide decreased by 3.43% to 140,800 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate was 73.46% with no change; the daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 147,976 yuan/ton with no change; the monthly processing cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.72% to 20,800 yuan/ton; the daily production profit of lithium spodumene decreased by 103.51% to - 1,854 yuan/ton; the daily production cost of lithium mica was 137,582 yuan/ton with no change; the monthly processing cost of lithium mica decreased by 0.51% to 34,890 yuan/ton; the daily production profit of lithium mica decreased by 20.50% to 5,025 yuan/ton; the total weekly inventory decreased by 0.09% to 98,873 tons; the smelter inventory increased by 1.94% to 16,608 tons; the downstream inventory increased by 1.00% to 46,105 tons; the other inventory decreased by 2.32% to 36,160 tons; the monthly total production decreased by 15.13% to 83,090 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 31.07% to 438,336 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.61% to 26,426.79 tons; the monthly net import volume decreased by 2.11% to 25,830.71 tons; the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [18]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 7.67% to 65%; the monthly production decreased by 7.67% to 300,250 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 11.76% to 60%; the monthly production decreased by 12.20% to 348,200 tons; the monthly export increased by 14.83% to 6,529,967 kg; the weekly inventory increased by 0.89% to 106,718 tons; the monthly operating rate of ternary precursor decreased by 8.16% to 45%; the monthly production decreased by 8.98% to 78,650 tons; the monthly operating rate of ternary material decreased by 15.77% to 63.23%; the monthly production decreased by 12.77% to 70,720 tons; the monthly total battery loading volume decreased by 37.38% to 26,300 GWh; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery decreased by 39.36% to 5,700 GWh; the loading volume of ternary battery decreased by 37.00% to 20,600 GWh; the production of new energy vehicles decreased by 39.41% to 1,041,000 vehicles; the sales decreased by 19.05% to 765,000 vehicles; the export decreased by 6.62% to 282,000 vehicles; the penetration rate increased by 5.21% to 42.38%; the retail - to - wholesale ratio of hybrid vehicles decreased by 11.96% to 0.54; the retail - to - wholesale ratio of pure - electric vehicles decreased by 3.80% to 0.66; the dealer inventory warning index decreased by 5.39% to 56.2; the dealer inventory index increased by 12.98% to 1.48 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, lithium carbonate lacks upward drivers and will maintain wide - range fluctuations. The geopolitical conflict has led to macro funds trading stagflation risks, putting pressure on liquid assets. The main funds for lithium carbonate continue to flow out, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Fundamentally, supply and demand are in a tight balance, the total inventory is slightly decreasing, and the narrowing of the gap between apparent demand and production makes it more difficult for prices to rise. Although new - energy vehicle sales are poor, the material sector remains fully productive, which is expected to support lithium carbonate prices to some extent [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In China, from January to February, industrial added value increased by 5.1% year - on - year, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.7% year - on - year, and consumer spending showed marginal improvement. Fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 11.4% year - on - year, playing a significant supporting role. In February, housing prices in first - tier cities in 70 large and medium - sized cities showed a slight recovery, while those in second - and third - tier cities remained stable. In March, the one - year and five - year LPR remained unchanged for the ninth consecutive month. Overseas, the US PPI in February increased by 2.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, highlighting inflation stickiness. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged and adopted a wait - and - see approach, and the market expects no interest rate cuts in 2026. The conflict between the US and Iran exceeded market expectations, and funds are worried about the risk of economic stagflation, putting pressure on liquid assets [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, lithium carbonate production increased week - on - week, with lithium extraction from spodumene contributing the main increase. Lithium salt plants actively purchased raw materials, and domestic supply capacity is gradually recovering. Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China are expected to arrive this month, increasing overseas supply [10]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the Passenger Car Association, from March 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in March last year but a 36% increase compared to the same period last month. Cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. From March 1st to 15th, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 325,000 units, a 19% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in March last year but a 47% increase compared to the same period last month. Cumulative wholesale volume this year was 1.914 million units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [3]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the price of lithium ore decreased week - on - week. The price of African SC 5% was $1,680/ton, a decrease of $150/ton compared to last week; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,008/ton, a decrease of $152/ton compared to last week; the market price of lithium mica was 6,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to last week. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 16,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 234 yuan week - on - week [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of March 19th, the total inventory was 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 16,608 tons, an increase of 316 tons week - on - week [4]. 3.6 Market Price - As of March 20th, LC2605 closed at 143,860 yuan/ton, a 5.4% decrease compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 yuan/ton, a 7% decrease compared to last week. The basis premium increased, and the position of the main contract was 277,000. This week, the main contract fluctuated downward. The macro - risk aversion sentiment increased, and liquid assets were under pressure. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate changed little, but the inventory reduction continued to slow down, and the narrowing gap between apparent demand and production led to insufficient upward drivers. The main funds mainly reduced positions throughout the week, and trading volume remained low, following the adjustment of the non - ferrous metals sector in the short term [8]. 3.7 Production of Related Products - As of March 20th, lithium carbonate production was 24,365 tons, an increase of 645 tons week - on - week. The enterprise operating rate was 52.91%, an increase of 1.4% week - on - week. Phosphoric acid iron lithium production was 114,548 tons, an increase of 1,139 tons week - on - week. The enterprise operating rate was 89.55%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply and demand of phosphoric acid iron lithium remained stable, with leading enterprises in the industry maintaining full production and sales, and small and medium - sized enterprises producing according to orders. The production capacity in Hubei, Gansu and other places was stably released [10][13]. 3.8 Inventory of Related Products - As of March 20th, the total inventory of the phosphoric acid iron lithium industry was 26,975 tons, a decrease of 756 tons compared to last week. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium products continued to decline, and the industry inventory continued to be depleted. The downstream battery factories actively stocked up during the peak season and the window period for export rush, and the inventory depletion trend is expected to continue [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed an increase last week, with a production of 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand - side saw an increase in the inventory of sample enterprises. The cost - side had different profit situations for different raw materials. The overall inventory was slightly reduced, and the market was in a state of tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations caused by news [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 147,976 yuan/ton, a 1.85% daily decrease, with a loss of 911 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 137,582 yuan/ton, a 2.45% daily decrease, with a profit of 6,321 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm was low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On March 20, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,140 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 16,608 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 46,105 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 36,160 tons, a 2.32% week - on - week decrease. The overall inventory was 98,873 tons, a 0.08% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average. The demand - leading situation weakened, and lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 139,100 - 149,780 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 73.46%, unchanged from the previous week. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 147,976 yuan/ton, a 1.86% decrease from the previous day. The monthly processing cost of lithium spodumene was 20,800 yuan/ton, a 0.72% decrease from the previous month. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% decrease from the previous month. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 438,336 tons, a 31.07% decrease from the previous month [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron was 60%, an 8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The monthly production was 300,250 tons, a 7.67% decrease from the previous month. The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron lithium was 45%, a 4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The monthly production was 78,650 tons, an 8.98% decrease from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 26,300 GWh, a 37.38% decrease from the previous month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The qualitative assessment of the balance sheet is questionable, and the demand in March and April needs to be observed. The supply and demand are both increasing, and there may be an excess of 0.5 tons in March. It is necessary to observe whether there will be more unexpected positive news in subsequent demand [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: - Domestic supply: The weekly start - up rate has continued to increase in all process segments. In March, the lithium carbonate production increased by 28% month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the hedging supply of recycled materials. The exchange has stricter requirements for the moisture and impurities of the benchmark delivery products. Guocheng Mining's subsidiary Jinxin Mining is expected to reach full production in March [9] - Foreign supply (import): Focus on the import of spodumene and lithium carbonate, especially the impact of the US's procurement of strategic materials such as lithium carbonate, the joint statement on critical minerals between Chile and the US, the export ban in Zimbabwe, and the production increase in Australia. Australia plans to increase tariffs on spodumene, and the final implementation needs to be observed. From January to February, the import of lithium concentrate increased by 26% year - on - year, and the import of lithium carbonate increased by 64% year - on - year, with imports from Chile and Argentina increasing by 56% and 72% respectively [9] - **Demand**: In March, the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 19.3% and 23.6% respectively month - on - month. Solid - state batteries are a direction worthy of continuous attention, and there is still strong policy support. Currently, more attention should be paid to the increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate. From April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for battery products will be gradually reduced and cancelled [9] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory has continued to decline, with 98,900 tons this week (- 86 tons), and the de - stocking has slowed down. The warehouse receipts decreased during the week, reaching 34,318 tons as of this Friday, a decrease of 2,085 tons during the week (including a decrease of 1,506 tons in factory warehouse receipts). The weekly available inventory of lithium ore is 105,000 tons (about 14,000 tons of LCE), a decrease of 15,000 tons of ore compared to the previous week [9] - **Valuation**: As of this Friday, based on the main contract, the net cash inflows from purchasing spodumene and lepidolite externally are approximately - 0.02 million yuan/ton and 0.13 million yuan/ton respectively; calculated according to the SMM spot valuation, they are approximately 0.48 million yuan/ton and 0.64 million yuan/ton respectively [9] - **Balance Sheet**: Considering factors such as the seasonal increase in the start - up rate at the salt lake end, a significant increase in imports in March, and March being the last time node for battery export rush, there may be an excess of 0.5 tons in March [9] 3.2 Data Chart Tracking - **Price Changes**: As of this Friday, the SMM valuation of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton (- 6.3%) during the week; lepidolite is 4,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton (- 11.9%) during the week, with a cost reduction of 14,100 yuan/ton; spodumene (6%) is 2,057 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 153 US dollars/ton (- 6.9%) during the week, with a cost reduction of 9,305 yuan/ton [20] - **Start - up and Production**: The weekly start - up rate and production of lithium salt plants have increased. The weekly start - up rate of lithium carbonate smelting is 59.05% (+ 1.93%), among which the start - up rate of spodumene is 70.29% (+ 1.79%), mica is 33.61% (+ 2.73%), and salt lake is 59.64% (+ 1.18%). The start - up rate of recycling is 35.08% (+ 0.7%). The weekly production of lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons (+ 760 tons), among which the production at the spodumene end is 14,914 tons (+ 380 tons), the production at the lepidolite end is 3,197 tons (+ 260 tons), the production at the salt lake end is 3,565 tons (+ 70 tons), and the production at the recycling end is 2,510 tons (+ 50 tons) [34][38] - **Import Situation**: From January to February, the import volume of lithium concentrate is 1.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+ 19%). Among them, the imports from Australia and Zimbabwe increased by 70,000 tons (+ 12%) and 3,500 tons (+ 3%) respectively. From January to February, 100,000 tons and 0 tons were imported from Mali respectively, and 13,000 tons and 3,000 tons were imported from Mongolia respectively. From January to February, the import of lithium carbonate is 53,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons (+ 64%). Among them, 31,400 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 11,000 tons (+ 56%), and 19,000 tons were imported from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons (+ 72%) [50][56] - **Positive Material Production**: SMM estimates that in March, the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate will increase by 19.3% and 23.6% respectively month - on - month. From the perspective of weekly production, the month - on - month increase of ternary may not reach 19%, and it lags behind year - on - year. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary increased by 0.2% and 3.1% respectively [57][59][61] - **Terminal Situation**: According to the Passenger Car Association, in January, the national new energy vehicle sales were 945,000, a year - on - year increase of 0.11%. The total scale of energy storage winning bids is still at a seasonal high. In February, the winning bid capacity was 26.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.3 GWh (+ 14%), and the cumulative capacity was 49.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 26.72 GWh (+ 117%) [69] - **Balance Sheet Recalculation**: According to SMM's estimated production schedule and a significant increase in imports, the balance sheet for March may have an excess of 0.5 tons. The subsequent import of foreign ore and lithium salt still needs to be tracked [95]