新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-28 矿端审批扰动仍较多，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-08-27，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于79260元/吨，收于78860元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.23%。当日 成交量为729645手，持仓量为351322手，前一交易日持仓量349496手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为1400元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27477手，较上个交易日变化787手。 根据最新统计周度数据，周度产量降低842吨至19138吨，以锂辉石生产产量增加，以云母生产产量降低，周度库 存降低713吨，总库存141543吨，下游库存增加较多，冶炼厂库存减少。 策略 供需格局好转，库存及产量均有降低，个别矿山安全生产许可证获批，但其他矿山后续审批情况也存在不确定性， 需关注矿端开工情况，消费端存在支撑，在矿端扰动影响下，碳酸锂回落后或仍有上涨空间，短期盘面波动较大， 参与者需做好风险管控。 风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 单边：谨慎偏多 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸 ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳大利亚锂矿企业股价大幅下跌，原因是该国两家最大的电池金属生产商公布，由 于价格暴跌，上半年共亏损 12 亿美元。IGO 在悉尼的股价暴跌了多达 8.4%，Mineral Resources也下跌 了多达 6.1%。就连那些周四未公布业绩的公司也未能幸免于此次下跌潮。Pilbara Minerals下跌了多达 4.3%，Liontown Resources则下跌了 5.4%。 Mineral Resources截至 6 月 30 日的年度净亏损为 9.04 亿澳元(约合 5.88 亿美元)，而上年同期盈利 1.25 亿澳元。IGO 在此期间的净亏损为 9.546 亿澳元，并对其Kwinana锂氢氧化锂精炼厂资产进行了全部减 值处理。 瑞银表示，2026 年中国供应中断的可能性增加，"这使得市场几乎出现供应短缺的情况"。不过，预计 届时供应将恢复，以及一些闲置或未充分利用的产能也将恢复运转，这可能会在 2027 年"出现一定程度 的调整"。 由于供应过剩以及电动汽车需求的下滑，锂行业遭受了资产减值和成本控制的双重打击。价格自 2022 年末的历史高位已下跌 86%，今年上半年继续呈下降趋势。 ...

报告还提及多个关键事件对锂供应的冲击：藏格矿业(Zangge Mining)已于7月14日暂停生产;宁德时代 (CATL)旗下枧下窝锂矿于8月10日停产;宜春地区7座锂云母矿将于9月30日后面临停产风险;此外，中信 国安(Citic Guoan)青海盐湖锂生产基地也已实施产量限制。 基于上述判断，瑞银将美国雅保的评级从"卖出"上调至"中性"，并设定89美元的目标价。分析师表示， 中国锂供应端后续可能出现的进一步动作，使得此前"美国雅保长期面临低价压力"的观点面临更大挑战 (即雅宝股价下行风险减弱)。 瑞银分析师表示，受中国锂矿停产影响，预计2025-2028年期间，锂辉石价格将上涨至少9%、最高达 32%，锂化工产品价格涨幅也将处于4%-17%区间。 智通财经APP获悉，周三,全球最大锂生产商之一美国雅保(ALB.US)收涨7.5%，成为当日标普500指数中 表现最强劲的个股之一。此前瑞银发布分析报告指出，中国锂行业若出现大范围、长时间供应中断，可 能影响全球高达15%的锂产量，这一消息直接推动雅宝股价走高。 其他锂生产商股价也同步上涨：Sigma Lithium(SGML.US)大涨11.4%，Lithiu ...

财务报表中对有大幅变动的财务项目的原因说明如下：货币资金变动幅度为58.22%,原因:本期并购贷款 增加。交易性金融资产变动幅度为86.35%,原因:本期购买理财产品。应收款项融资变动幅度为313.03%, 原因:本期收到信用等级较高的银行承兑汇票增加。应收股利变动幅度为-74.82%,原因:本期收回上期股 票分红款。存货变动幅度为69.75%,原因:锂辉石和铁矿石存货增加。一年内到期的非流动资产变动幅度 为91.54%,原因:本期公司一年内到期的定期存款增加。油气资产变动幅度为64.23%,原因:本期增加特提 斯项目油气资产。递延所得税资产变动幅度为41.62%,原因:油气产量增加导致摊销暂时性差异增加。其 他非流动资产变动幅度为-85.94%,原因:本期特提斯项目纳入公司合并范围。衍生金融负债变动幅度 为-74.41%,原因:本期期货套保浮亏。应付账款变动幅度为89.03%,原因:应付矿石款增加。一年内到期的 非流动负债变动幅度为40.98%,原因:本期一年内到期的长期借款增加。长期借款变动幅度为226.79%,原 因:本期并购贷款增加。库存股变动幅度为-65.04%,原因:本期注销回购的股票。其他综合收 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为19138吨，环比减少4.21%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为93640吨，环比减少1.51%,上周三元材料样本企业 库存为17617吨，环比增加1.86%。 供给端，2025年7月碳酸锂产量为81530实物吨，预测下月产量为84200实物吨，环比增加 3.27%,2025年7月碳酸锂进口量为13845实物吨，预测下月进口量为18500实物吨，环比增加 33.62%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度 环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，需求主导局面 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply contraction concern persists, and the downside space for lithium carbonate prices is limited. In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [1][4][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate prices opened high and closed low, with a weekly decline of 7.39%. Trading volume reached 4.32 million lots (-310,000), and open interest reached 362,300 lots (-38,800). The basis premium was 4,940 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica production was 16,100 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. Lithium concentrate imports rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [12][16]. 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [19]. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. In July, lithium carbonate imports dropped to 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. In July, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [25][27]. 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In July, lithium hydroxide exports were 1,248 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 86.3% [33]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 75,886 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [36]. 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary material production was 16,565 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. In July, imports increased and exports decreased [39]. 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In July, exports increased [42]. 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [43]. 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, electrolyte production was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In July, exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [50]. 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In July, power battery production was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8%. Power battery installations were 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [53]. 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. Sales were 1.262 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [56]. 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, energy storage battery production was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [61]. 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. China's micro - computer production was 25.52 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [64]. 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices declined. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by $53/ton, and the price of lithium mica dropped by 190 yuan/ton [68]. 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 713 tons. Structurally, smelter inventory decreased by 2,847 tons, downstream inventory increased by 3,224 tons, and other inventory decreased by 1,090 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 1,441 tons, and ternary material inventory increased by 321 tons [74][75]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: After an over - decline, short - term long positions can be taken, and options can be appropriately bought for protection; buy straddle options. The operating range is 70,000 - 100,000. In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [78].

Group 1: Research Views - Yesterday, all lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit down, with the main contract dropping to 80,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 85,700 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained at 83,400 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 77,740 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons [3]. - The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that the Department of Homeland Security will subject steel, copper, lithium, caustic soda, and red dates to stricter reviews due to alleged human - rights violations against the Uyghur population in these industries. However, for lithium batteries exported to the US, raw material procurement is generally avoided. In July 2025, China imported 750,700 tons of spodumene, a month - on - month increase of 174,800 tons; the import volume of lithium carbonate in July was 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,853 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. Spodumene - based lithium production increased by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, lepidolite - based lithium production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons, salt - lake - based lithium production increased by 300 tons to 2,742 tons, and recycled - material - based lithium production increased by 157 tons to 1,679 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory increased this week, with the total inventory decreasing by 162 tons to 142,256 tons. The upstream reduced inventory, while other links and downstream increased inventory [3]. - Currently, the production issues of known resource projects have basically been resolved. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton on Monday and is facing short - term回调 pressure. In the future, attention should be focused on the mining license issue in Jiangxi. Other projects need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 87,540 yuan/ton on August 19 to 80,980 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 6,560 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 87,580 yuan/ton to 81,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,540 yuan/ton [5]. - Among lithium ores, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 978 US dollars/ton to 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) decreased from 1,385 yuan/ton to 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) decreased from 2,185 yuan/ton to 2,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased from 7,765 yuan/ton to 7,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton to 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton [5]. - For lithium salts, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized), industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,300 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 7,960 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 22 yuan/ton [5]. - Among precursors and cathode materials, the prices of some ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - For batteries, the prices of some battery cells and batteries increased slightly, such as the 523 square ternary battery cell, 523 cylindrical ternary battery, and cobalt acid battery cell [5]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][29][30][31][32][33]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [35][36][37][38]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 26, 2024, to August 14, 2025 [40][41][42][43]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [44][45]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience and has served many leading spot enterprises. He has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards [48]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure [49]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [49]. Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Square, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [52]

Report Overview - Report Title: Supply and Demand Improve, but the Actual Magnitude is Limited. Lithium Carbonate is Difficult to Maintain Long - Term and Significant Increases - Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level, and the marginal change from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion in lithium carbonate supply and demand has significantly improved the market expectations in the first half of the year, with the price center expected to rise. However, the expected annual inventory depletion of 1 - 2 million tons after the shutdown is limited compared to the current market inventory of 14 million tons. If the market continues to rise significantly, it may open the profit window for imported lithium mines such as those from Australia and Africa, quickly making up for the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine and attracting hedging funds, so it may experience short - term significant increases but is difficult to maintain in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene has risen rapidly, leading the increase in ore prices. Affected by administrative orders in Jiangxi and Qinghai, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake sectors have significantly declined in July. After the confirmation of the shutdown of Jianxiawo, the market demand for lithium mica has significantly decreased, and the price of spodumene, as an alternative, has led the increase in the lithium ore market. Attention should be paid to the quantity of imported spodumene supplemented due to high prices [3]. - Lithium Salt: It has continued to take advantage of the situation, and the upper integer price levels may be the targets of long - positions. The news of the shutdown of Jianxiawo last week pushed the lithium carbonate LC futures contract to the price range of 80,000 yuan. The marginal reduction may change the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion. The market long - positions continue to take advantage of the market rumors of the shutdown of the salt lake sector to drive up prices, with the upper levels of 90,000 and 100,000 yuan being the next targets of long - positions. However, with a high inventory of 14 million tons, it is difficult for lithium carbonate to maintain high prices in the long term [3]. - Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The impact of anti - involution is gradually fading. The impact of anti - involution focused on the new energy vehicle market is gradually fading. Recently, lithium carbonate has been indirectly affected by the sentiment of industries such as photovoltaics, with limited substantial impact [3]. 3.1.2 Market Summary - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level. The marginal change in supply and demand has improved market expectations, but the expected inventory depletion is limited compared to the current inventory. If the market rises significantly, it may attract imported lithium mines and hedging funds, making it difficult to maintain long - term high prices [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - Slowing Inventory Accumulation - From July 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 81,530 tons, demand was 96,275 tons, import was 18,000 tons, export was 573 tons, inventory change was 2,682 tons, and the cumulative balance was 164,565 tons [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - From August 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 25,170 tons, demand was 22,969 tons, import was 750 tons, export was 6,100 tons, inventory change was - 3,149 tons, and the cumulative balance was 25,163 tons [12]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.3.1 Spodumene Import - From December 2023 to June 2025, the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil, etc.) showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil, and the average import price was 639 US dollars per ton [19]. 3.3.2 Chinese Lithium Ore - Spodumene Quotation Leading the Increase - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production of sample lithium mica mines and spodumene mines showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of lithium mica was 16,100 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%, and the production of spodumene was 6,500 tons with a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [24]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 3.4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Obvious Impact of Lithium Ore Shutdown - From July 1, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the price differences between them showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,000 yuan, industrial - grade was 83,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 77,875 yuan, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,000 yuan, and the difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 6,125 yuan [27]. 3.4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Spodumene Expected to Supplement Market Gap - From July 9, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 73,053 yuan per ton, with a profit of 10,947 yuan; the production cost from low - grade mica was 91,674 yuan per ton, with a loss of 7,674 yuan; and the production cost from high - grade mica was 53,983 yuan per ton, with a profit of 30,017 yuan [41]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - From July 2023 to July 2025, the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the total monthly production was 81,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [50]. 3.4.4 Operating Rate - Obvious Decline in Operating Rates of Mica and Salt Lake Sectors in July - From July 2022 to July 2025, the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake) also showed different trends [52][55]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 17,698 tons, with 5,094 tons from Argentina and 11,853 tons from Chile [60]. 3.4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Attention Needed on the Sustainability of Inventory Depletion - From December 2022 to July 2025, the inventory of lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts showed different trends [62][63][65]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 3.5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Slowing Production Growth - From November 2019 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 290,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.00% and a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the operating rate was 57.00% [70]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials Production and Operating Rate - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 68,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.70% and a month - on - month increase of 5.80% [75]. 3.5.3 Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the import, export, and net import volumes of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the import volume was 5,349 tons, the export volume was 10,636 tons, and the net import volume was - 5,287 tons [80]. 3.5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From November 2021 to July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles was 807,000, the production of plug - in hybrid vehicles was 436,000, and the inventory warning index was 57.2 [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market is worried about the contraction of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of the Jianxiaowo lithium mica mine and uncertainties in domestic salt lake supply. The "anti - involution" sentiment continues, and the short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong. However, high prices will stimulate the release of overseas resources, and the long - term fundamental pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the progress of Jiangxi mines and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [4][90] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Short - term operation, be cautious when chasing long positions, and appropriately buy options for protection; Operating range: 70,000 - 100,000 [4][90] - Resource side: There are still concerns about the supply of lithium mica in Jiangxi, the output of spodumene is basically flat, and the import volume of lithium ore has decreased [4][90] - Supply side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, the import volume of lithium salts decreased, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile increased significantly, and the recycling end was strengthened [4][90] - Demand side: The growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales has slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories have increased, with inventory accumulation of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week. The production schedule of energy - storage batteries has increased slightly, and the energy - storage winning bid scale has decreased [4][90] - Cost side: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have risen significantly [4][90] - Inventory: Overall inventory reduction, inventory reduction in smelters, and inventory accumulation in downstream and other sectors [4][90] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 15.87%. The trading volume reached 4.63 million lots (+1.86 million), and the open interest reached 401,100 lots (+80,400). The basis was at a discount of 4,200 yuan/ton [6][7] 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis 3.3.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's spodumene output was 6,500 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica output was 16,100 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [12] - In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [16] - In April, the volume of spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [21] 3.3.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [26] 3.3.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% - In July, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [32][34] 3.3.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the output was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3% - In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [42] 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate was 79,053 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% - In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the output was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [45] 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the output of ternary materials was 16,283 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% - In June, the import and export volume increased [50] 3.4.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the output was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4% - In June, the export volume decreased [53] 3.4.4 Manganese - Based and Cobalt - Based Materials - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the output was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26% - In August, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the output was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [54] 3.4.5 Electrolyte - In August, the output of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0% - In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [61] 3.5 Terminal Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Power Batteries - In July, the output of power batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8% - In July, the installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [64] 3.5.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.243 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3% - In July, the sales of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [67] 3.5.3 Energy Storage - In August, the output of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9% - In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [72] 3.5.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1% - In July, China's micro - computer production was 25.52 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [75] 3.6 Cost Analysis - Lithium ore prices have risen significantly. The price of spodumene concentrate has increased by $163/ton, and the price of lithium mica has increased by 300 yuan/ton [79] 3.7 Inventory Analysis - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 162 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 1,306 tons, downstream inventory increased by 124 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,020 tons - Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory increased by 483 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 737 tons [86][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is in a state of over - supply due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][12]. - Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut and suspension plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [10]. - Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand Side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 79,732 yuan/ton, a 0.88% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,114 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 83,715 yuan/ton, a 1.26% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,942 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3,300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase; in July 2025, the lithium carbonate import volume was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous value [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase from the previous value. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, and the production from different sources such as spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake showed different trends [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase from the previous value. The monthly production of ternary precursor was 30,990 tons (622 type), a 7.08% increase from the previous value. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased, with the lithium iron phosphate loading volume increasing by 1.87% and the ternary battery loading volume decreasing by 5.27% [17]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease. The smelter inventory decreased by 2.56%, and the downstream inventory increased by 0.26% [17]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds vary. For example, the production profit of purchased spodumene concentrate was 1,114 yuan/ton, while the production of purchased lithium mica resulted in a loss of 4,942 yuan/ton [8].