交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨 环比增长0 75% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， 。 . , | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为101848吨 环比增加3 62% 上周三元材 ， . , | | | | | | | 料样本企业库存为17896吨 | 环比增加2 00% ， 。 . | | | | | | 基本面: | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为74486元/吨 日环比减少1 22% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 3 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为75407元/吨，日环比减少0.03%,生产所得为-2927元/吨，有所亏 损；外购锂云母成本为78268元/吨，日环比减少0.58%,生产所得为-7776元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生 产成本接近矿石端成本，排产积极性一般；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31745元/吨，盐湖端成本显著 低于矿石端，盈利空间充 ...

碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月30日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 供给端，2025年8月碳酸锂产量为85240实物吨，预测下月产量为86730实物吨，环比增加1.75%,2025 年8月碳酸锂进口量为21847实物吨，预测下月进口量为19500实物吨，环比减少10.74%。需求端，预 计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同 期平均水平，供需格局转向 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企 业库存为17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 供给端，2025年8月碳酸锂产量为85240实物吨，预测下月产量为86730实物吨，环比增加 1.75%,2025年8月碳酸锂进口量为21847实物吨，预测下月进口量为19500实物吨，环比减少 10.74%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日 度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，供需格局转向 ...

姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证号：Z0022465 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号：证监许可[2012]112 碳酸锂产业链概览-研究框架 碳酸锂 锂辉石 锂云母 盐湖卤水 氢氧化锂 三元材料 磷酸铁锂 钴酸锂 锰酸锂 六氟磷酸锂 动力电池 储能电池 新能源汽车 玻璃陶瓷等 3C数码 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 碳酸锂综述 01 多空矛盾不强，震荡运行为主 碳酸锂周度报告 2025年9月28日 碳酸锂产业链价格 02 03 碳酸锂上游供给环境 04 碳酸锂下游消费环境 05 碳酸锂库存结构 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 目 录 Part 01 碳酸锂综述 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 碳酸锂综述 碳酸锂综述——平衡表 | | 要素 | | | | ★ 碳酸锂周度综述 ★ | | 驱动方向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 单位:吨 总产量 | 一道 20363 | न्त में मी 20516 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利多：厂家停减产计划，从智利进口碳酸锂量环比有所下行，锂辉石进口量有所下滑。 利空：矿石/盐湖端供给持续高位，下降幅度有限；动力电池端接货意愿不足。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20363吨，环比增长2.00%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96217吨，环比增加0.81%,上周三元材料样本 企业库存为17545吨，环比增加0.09%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为75328元/吨，日环比增长0.04%,生产所得为-2650元 /吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为78729元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-8042元/吨， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 市场分析 2025-09-22，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于74580元/吨，收于73420元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.05%。当日 成交量为396645手，持仓量为271624手，前一交易日持仓量281264手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为430元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单38909手，较上个交易日变化-575手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73200-74500元/吨，较前一交易日变化350元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价71000-72200元/吨，较前一交易日变化350元/吨。6%锂精矿价格833美元/吨，较前一日变化3美元/吨。据SMM数 据，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，市场整体成交活跃度持稳。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游材料厂存在一定国庆 节前备库需求，在价格处于相对低位时采购意愿较强。 进口增长较多，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 8月中国进口碳酸锂2.2万吨，环比增加58%，同比增加25%。其中，从智利进口碳酸锂1.56万吨，占进口总量的71%； 从阿根廷进口碳酸锂0.4万吨，占进口总量的19%。1-8月中国累计进口碳酸锂1 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance of Overnight Futures - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.03% to $3781.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.17% to $44.32 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with WTI crude down 0.10% to $62.34 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.06% to $66.00 per barrel [4]. - London base metals showed mixed results, with LME zinc, lead, and copper rising, while tin, nickel, and aluminum falling [4]. - Most domestic futures contracts closed lower, with 20 - rubber rising nearly 1%, and glass, soda ash, and others falling more than 2% [5]. 2. Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China conducted 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations and kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8][9]. - As of September 22, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) dropped 12.9% from the previous period [10]. - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3 trillion since the 14th Five - Year Plan, and above $3.2 trillion in the past two years [10]. - The Fed's Bostic is reluctant to support another rate cut in October, and the Cleveland Fed's president Hamrick said the Fed needs to be "very cautious" in lifting restrictive policies [10][11]. 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 22, the styrene inventory in East China's main ports increased by 2.48 million tons to 40.85 million tons [14]. - From September 22 - 28, 2025, the number of expected arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 67% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 60% [14]. - As of the week of September 22, domestic asphalt social inventory decreased by 2.1% [15]. 4. Metal Futures - In August, China's lithium spodumene imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month, equivalent to 56,000 tons of LCE [17]. - The silicon semiconductor industry has gradually completed destocking, and the demand for materials will be gradually released [17]. - In August 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7903 million tons, up 2.66% year - on - year and 0.35% month - on - month [17]. - Indonesia's state - owned tin miner PT Timah expects to achieve its annual tin output target of 21,500 tons [19]. - In August 2025, global primary aluminum production was 6.277 million tons [19]. 5. Black - Series Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to stabilize the growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with an average annual growth target of about 4% for added value [21]. - From September 15 - 21, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments decreased, while China's port arrivals increased [22]. - Shougang Shuigang's bar rolling mill will be under maintenance from September 22 for 3 days, affecting the output of construction steel by 450 tons [24]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will promote the high - quality development of the housing and construction industry [24]. 6. Agricultural Futures - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil to trade between 4200 - 4500 ringgit in the coming weeks [26]. - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, and export data showed mixed results [26]. - As of September 17, the national live pig price decreased by 1.58% from September 10 [26]. - Argentina temporarily canceled export taxes on soybeans, corn, and wheat [29]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 0.9% of the expected total area [29]. - As of September 22, the national imported soybean port inventory decreased by 143,430 tons week - on - week [30]. - Brazil's soybean processing enterprises plan to invest $1.11 billion in the next 12 months [30]. - As of September 18, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons [30]. - As of September 21, the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate was 61%, and the harvest rate was 9% [31]. 7. Financial Markets Financial - The CSRC will accelerate the reform of the capital market, deepen the reform of the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange [34]. - A - share indices rose, with funds concentrating on technology stocks [34]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and cross - border internet brokers further closed the account - opening channels for mainland Chinese residents [33][34][35]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is consulting on the investor identification code system [36]. - Berkshire Hathaway has cleared its position in BYD, and Kweichow Moutai has not adjusted its annual performance target [36][38]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued plans for the steel and energy equipment industries [39]. - The Ministry of Sports issued a guidance on promoting the high - quality development of sports - promoted health [39]. - The central Cyberspace Administration launched a special campaign to rectify the issue of maliciously inciting negative emotions [39]. - As of the end of August, the number of tax - refund stores for outbound travelers in China exceeded 10,000, and the sales of tax - refund goods increased by 97.5% year - on - year [40]. - In the first half of 2025, the inventory book value of typical real - estate enterprises decreased by 4.6% [40]. Overseas - France recognized the State of Palestine [42]. - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts [42]. - The US Treasury Secretary is ready to support Argentina [42]. - France is considering a wealth tax on individuals with over 100 million euros in assets [42]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week [43]. - Turkey terminated additional tariffs on some US imports [43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks hit new closing highs, European stocks showed mixed results, and Japanese and South Korean stocks rose [45]. - Buffett increased his stake in Japanese trading companies, and Pfizer will acquire Metsera for up to $7.3 billion [46]. Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and base metals showed mixed results [3][4][46]. - Congo (Kinshasa) will end the cobalt export ban on October 15 and implement a new export quota policy [48]. Bonds - Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [49]. - The Hong Kong Exchange added a floating reference rate option for north - bound swap connect [49]. - The central bank issued 60 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [50]. - Foreign investors continued to net - buy Japanese ultra - long - term government bonds in August [50]. - US Treasury yields rose [52]. Foreign Exchange - The Hong Kong dollar strengthened at the fastest pace in 20 years, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower [53]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [54]. 8. Upcoming Events - There are various economic data releases, corporate earnings announcements, and stock listings scheduled, along with statements from central bank officials [56]

起伏如此之大，自然很容易与近期国内碳酸锂走势联系起来。据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库统计， 7月国内碳酸锂月均价只有 6.6万元左右， 处于今年的谷底区域，而8月份碳酸锂市场在下游需求明显增长以及上游矿证监管收紧的双重影响下， 月均价窜升至7.8万元左右，创下今年新高，基本与澳矿的发货节奏相吻合。 虽然 8月份澳矿发货量创下新低，但从明细来看， 9月1-6日Bunbury港连续有3船锂矿集中出货，合计约8万吨， 如 果将其视为8月份延后发货资源，则8月和9月发货量都是在12-13万吨水平，基本和7月持平，并不存在太大波动。 | Vessel | ETD | Product | Tonnes | Length | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bronze Lady | 2025-09-0112:00 | Spodumene | 13,501 | 158.6 m | | Federal Sable | 2025-09-03 09:30 | Spodumene | 35,992 | 189.9 m | | Bonas | 2025-09-06 06:00 | Spodumene | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected that the market will experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week due to the expected decrease in supply, continuous increase in demand, and sustained low costs [4][7][75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate rose this week, with the opening price on Monday at 71,260 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 73,960 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 3.79% [4]. - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,363 tons, higher than the historical average. Production from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycling all increased compared to the previous period and were above the historical average [4]. - **Demand Side**: In August 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 104,023 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. The predicted demand for next month is 109,470 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.24%. The export volume in August was 307 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.12%, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.55% [5]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,527 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%, resulting in a loss of 3,096 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 78,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.94%, resulting in a loss of 8,402 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory is 34,456 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 59,495 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 43,580 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory is 137,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The report presents the trends of the main lithium carbonate futures contract, including the basis, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price [12]. - **Lithium Ore Supply**: It shows the price trends of lithium ore, production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China, import volume of lithium concentrate, self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and inventory of lithium ore at ports [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: It includes the weekly operating rate, production, production capacity, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from different sources [21][27]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate, production, production capacity, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide [30][32]. - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds**: It analyzes the cost and profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export [35][37][40]. - **Inventory**: It shows the warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [42]. - **Lithium Battery Demand**: It includes the price, production, shipment, export, and cost of lithium batteries [46]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [51][54]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials [56][58]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: It shows the price, cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export, and inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [60][63]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: It includes the production, sales, export, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles [68][69]. 3.3 Technical Analysis The main 11 - contract showed an upward trend this week. The report presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price of the LC main contract, along with moving averages such as MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, and MA120 [75].