1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report adopts a short - term bullish and long - term bearish approach. Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment for culling old chickens, with the far - month contracts performing strongly. The near - month contracts fluctuate between maintaining a premium on the futures market, reflecting consumer stockpiling and capacity reduction. In the short term, there is a resonance between seasonal inventory accumulation in the spot market and capacity reduction, and the strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be disproven for the time being. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal stockpiling ends, attention should be paid to the upward pressure [11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices were mainly stable, with a slight increase in the second half. Supply remained abundant, demand did not improve significantly, and the increase in egg prices was limited. The culling of old chickens accelerated, and the average chicken age dropped to 489 days. Looking ahead to next week, the in - production inventory remains high, the proportion of small eggs is slowly decreasing, the temperature is not high, and inventory pressure is not large under the rotation method. Demand support is limited, but short - term restocking may support a small increase in egg prices [11][21]. - **Replenishment and Culling**: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market sentiment for replenishment remained sluggish. In October, the replenishment volume further decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Egg prices failed to rebound, breeding losses widened, the market sentiment for culling chickens remained positive, the price of culled chickens hit a multi - year low year - on - year, the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens further declined, and the chicken age dropped to 489 days, but there is still a distance from excessive culling [11][34]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than the previous expectation, mainly because the culling volume unexpectedly increased. However, the absolute quantity is still large, a month - on - month decrease of 9 million compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% compared to 1.287 billion last year. Based on previous replenishment, considering normal culling, it is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, remaining flat in November and further dropping to 1.319 billion by March next year, a decline of 2.9%. The relative supply will gradually decrease, but the absolute supply is still relatively high [11][39]. - **Demand Side**: As the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumer side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory [11][47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and observe, and pay attention to the upward pressure on the 01 - 06 spread in the medium term. For arbitrage, it is recommended to mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Last week, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with a slight increase in the second half. The supply was abundant, demand did not improve significantly, and the increase in egg prices was limited. The culling of old chickens accelerated, and the chicken age dropped to 489 days. Specifically, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan per catty, the lowest price during the week was 2.7 yuan per catty; the price in Guantao increased by 0.11 yuan to 2.69 yuan per catty, the lowest price during the week was 2.56 yuan per catty; the price in Huilongguan, a sales area, increased by 0.18 yuan to 3.05 yuan per catty, and the price in Dongguan remained flat at 2.83 yuan per catty. Looking ahead to next week, the in - production inventory remains high, the proportion of small eggs is slowly decreasing, the temperature is not high, and inventory pressure is not large under the rotation method. Demand support is limited, but short - term restocking may support a small increase in egg prices [21]. - **Basis and Spread**: Although the spot market has stabilized, the price increase did not meet expectations, resulting in a weak basis. Under the background of squeezing the premium in the near - month contracts, the spread is inclined to reverse arbitrage [24]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Egg prices rebounded from a low level, but the breeding industry is still in a loss state. The market sentiment for culling chickens remains positive, and the absolute price of culled chickens and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens hit new lows [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment**: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market sentiment for replenishment remained sluggish. In October, the replenishment volume further decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [34]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: Egg prices failed to rebound, breeding losses widened, the market sentiment for culling chickens remained positive, the price of culled chickens hit a multi - year low year - on - year, the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens further declined, and the chicken age dropped to 489 days, but there is still a distance from excessive culling [37]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than the previous expectation, mainly because the culling volume unexpectedly increased. However, the absolute quantity is still large, a month - on - month decrease of 9 million compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% compared to 1.287 billion last year. Based on previous replenishment, considering normal culling, it is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, remaining flat in November and further dropping to 1.319 billion by March next year, a decline of 2.9%. The relative supply will gradually decrease, but the absolute supply is still relatively high [39][42]. 3.4 Demand Side - As the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumer side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory [47]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has declined month - on - month. In terms of profitability, it is at a seasonally low level [52]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rise of the soybean oil futures 2601 contract is a rebound, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. Investors should adopt a "short - term long, long - term short" strategy [2][3]. - The A - share market is expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations [7]. - Gold shows signs of rising again and can be bought on dips [12]. - Iron ore may enter a technical bearish trend and shorting on rebounds is recommended [14][15]. - Glass is viewed as oscillating bearishly [17][18]. - There are short - term long opportunities in methanol [20]. - The pulp futures market shows an oscillating rebound trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On November 12, the soybean oil futures 2601 contract closed at 8266 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The rise is due to the emotional repair of the oil and fat sector and downstream replenishment demand. However, the medium - term bearish pattern remains unchanged [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened lower and fluctuated downward in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index ended with a doji star. The market is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations [7][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and low - buying for long positions is advisable [12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be more abundant. The demand side is weak except for exports, and it may enter a technical bearish trend [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume of glass changes little, and the inventory has decreased this week. The future drivers depend on policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies. It is viewed as oscillating bearishly [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Methanol - This week, the methanol port inventory has accumulated in the East China region and slightly decreased in the South China region. There are short - term long opportunities [20]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - In October, the pulp import volume decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory is in a destocking trend. The supply is still abundant, and the futures market shows an oscillating rebound trend [24].