短多长空思路 鸡蛋周报 2025/11/29 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内蛋价主流平稳，后半程小幅上涨，周内供应依然充足，需求无明显好转，蛋价上涨幅度较有限，周内老鸡淘汰继续加快， 鸡龄回落至489天；具体看，黑山大码蛋价周涨0.1元至2.8元/斤，周内最低2.7元/斤，馆陶周涨0.11元至2.69/斤，周内最低2.56元/斤，销 区回龙观周涨0.18元至3.05元/斤，东莞周持平于2.83元/斤；展望下周，在产存栏维持偏高，小蛋占比缓慢回落，气温不高，轮库方式下库 存压力不大，需求端支撑有限，但随着蛋价阶段低位的到来，短暂补库或支撑蛋价小涨。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续低迷，10月份补栏量进一步下降至7830万只，环比-0.1%，同比-12.7%； 蛋价反弹无力，养殖亏损扩大 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rise of the soybean oil futures 2601 contract is a rebound, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. Investors should adopt a "short - term long, long - term short" strategy [2][3]. - The A - share market is expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations [7]. - Gold shows signs of rising again and can be bought on dips [12]. - Iron ore may enter a technical bearish trend and shorting on rebounds is recommended [14][15]. - Glass is viewed as oscillating bearishly [17][18]. - There are short - term long opportunities in methanol [20]. - The pulp futures market shows an oscillating rebound trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On November 12, the soybean oil futures 2601 contract closed at 8266 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The rise is due to the emotional repair of the oil and fat sector and downstream replenishment demand. However, the medium - term bearish pattern remains unchanged [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened lower and fluctuated downward in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index ended with a doji star. The market is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations [7][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and low - buying for long positions is advisable [12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be more abundant. The demand side is weak except for exports, and it may enter a technical bearish trend [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume of glass changes little, and the inventory has decreased this week. The future drivers depend on policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies. It is viewed as oscillating bearishly [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Methanol - This week, the methanol port inventory has accumulated in the East China region and slightly decreased in the South China region. There are short - term long opportunities [20]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - In October, the pulp import volume decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory is in a destocking trend. The supply is still abundant, and the futures market shows an oscillating rebound trend [24].