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豆油期货2601合约
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金信期货日刊-20251113
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 00:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rise of the soybean oil futures 2601 contract is a rebound, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. Investors should adopt a "short - term long, long - term short" strategy [2][3]. - The A - share market is expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations [7]. - Gold shows signs of rising again and can be bought on dips [12]. - Iron ore may enter a technical bearish trend and shorting on rebounds is recommended [14][15]. - Glass is viewed as oscillating bearishly [17][18]. - There are short - term long opportunities in methanol [20]. - The pulp futures market shows an oscillating rebound trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On November 12, the soybean oil futures 2601 contract closed at 8266 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The rise is due to the emotional repair of the oil and fat sector and downstream replenishment demand. However, the medium - term bearish pattern remains unchanged [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened lower and fluctuated downward in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index ended with a doji star. The market is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations [7][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and low - buying for long positions is advisable [12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be more abundant. The demand side is weak except for exports, and it may enter a technical bearish trend [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume of glass changes little, and the inventory has decreased this week. The future drivers depend on policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies. It is viewed as oscillating bearishly [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Methanol - This week, the methanol port inventory has accumulated in the East China region and slightly decreased in the South China region. There are short - term long opportunities [20]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - In October, the pulp import volume decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory is in a destocking trend. The supply is still abundant, and the futures market shows an oscillating rebound trend [24].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251015
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 01:41
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall view for bean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday is "oscillating weakly". The core logics for these commodities are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, production, exports, inventories, and cost support [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Bean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the US Treasury Secretary's statement that it is not certain to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, market sentiment has fluctuated. The expectation of tightened domestic long - term soybean supply has cooled, weakening the support for the futures price of the 2601 contract of domestic bean meal. Also, factors like Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure affect it [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The spill - over effect of the pressure on international oil prices on the oil market continues. Also, the weakening of the palm oil market industrial chain exerts obvious pressure. Macro - sentiment's influence on the oil market has significantly increased. Before the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will continue to be under pressure following the external market. Additionally, factors like biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventories, and substitution demand play a role [6][7]. Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail in the core logic section like the above two, but listed in the summary table) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Core Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].