来源：参考消息 据路透社1月5日报道，"油轮追踪者"网站说，最近几天，大约十几艘满载委内瑞拉原油和燃料的油轮悄 悄离开该国水域，似乎打破了美国实行的严格封锁。 所有被确认已离开的船只都受到美国的制裁。另一组同样受到制裁的船只近几天在卸下进口产品或者完 成国内运输任务后，也以空船状态离开该国。 报道称，这些船只的离开对该国国营石油公司——委内瑞拉石油公司来说可能是一个解脱。该公司在上 个月开始的美国封锁期间积累了大量海上浮动储备油，该国的石油出口一度陷入停滞。 来源：参考消息 据路透社1月5日报道，"油轮追踪者"网站说，最近几天，大约十几艘满载委内瑞拉原油和燃料的油轮悄 悄离开该国水域，似乎打破了美国实行的严格封锁。 所有被确认已离开的船只都受到美国的制裁。另一组同样受到制裁的船只近几天在卸下进口产品或者完 成国内运输任务后，也以空船状态离开该国。 报道称，这些船只的离开对该国国营石油公司——委内瑞拉石油公司来说可能是一个解脱。该公司在上 个月开始的美国封锁期间积累了大量海上浮动储备油，该国的石油出口一度陷入停滞。 石油出口是委内瑞拉的主要收入来源。 "油轮追踪者"网站说，至少有4艘油轮离开委内瑞拉水域，之前它 ...

当地目击者日前向新华社透露，12月23日在该国西部马拉开波湖这一核心产油区，仍可见油轮正在等待 出海或穿过拉斐尔·乌达内塔将军大桥进入巴霍格兰德港口。 罗德里格斯21日还在社交媒体发帖证实，美国石油公司雪佛龙的油轮装载着原油合法驶离委内瑞拉前往 美国。据外媒报道，雪佛龙公司11月每日向美国出口原油约15万桶。 美国总统特朗普16日在社交媒体发文称，美方已将委内瑞拉政府列为"外国恐怖组织"，他当天下令对所 有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施封锁。17日，罗德里格斯通过社交媒体发布政府公报说，委内瑞拉国 家石油公司原油及其衍生品的出口业务目前正常进行，与该公司业务相关的油轮继续在"充分保障、技 术支持和运营担保的情况下航行"。 近期，美国以"缉毒"为由，在委内瑞拉附近加勒比海域部署多艘军舰，对委施压。特朗普11月底威胁可 能"很快"通过陆路打击委内瑞拉"毒贩"。委内瑞拉多次指责美国意图通过军事威胁在委策动政权更迭， 并在拉美军事扩张。 新华社记者田睿、刘宇辰报道 ↑12月23日，一艘油轮航行在委内瑞拉苏利亚州马拉开波湖上。 马拉开波湖区域是委内瑞拉原油向世界各地出口的关键通道。尽管面临美国近期扣押油轮事件等影响， 委 ...

Core Insights - Venezuela's oil exports slightly increased to approximately 921,000 barrels per day in November, marking the third highest monthly average of the year [1] - The increase in exports is attributed to a 3% rise compared to October, despite ongoing U.S. military operations in the Caribbean not disrupting Venezuela's oil trade [1] - U.S. oil exports to Venezuela rose to about 150,000 barrels per day in November, up from 128,000 barrels per day in October [1] - Exports of Venezuelan oil by-products and petrochemicals increased from 195,000 tons in October to approximately 277,000 tons in November [1] - Imports of light crude oil and fuel surged from 74,000 barrels per day in October to about 167,000 barrels per day, more than doubling [1]

Core Insights - The Novorossiysk port in Russia has resumed oil loading operations after a two-day suspension due to a Ukrainian drone attack [1] - The Suezmax tanker "Aran" and the Aframax tanker "Rhodes" are currently loading oil at the port [1] - The attack on the port caused damage to two oil berths, leading to a temporary halt in operations [1] Industry Summary - The resumption of operations at Novorossiysk port indicates a quick recovery from disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions [1] - The involvement of major tanker types, Suezmax and Aframax, highlights the port's capacity to handle significant oil shipments [1] - The incident underscores the vulnerability of oil export infrastructure in conflict zones, impacting supply chains [1]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency report indicates that by September 2025, Russian oil and oil product exports are expected to increase by 2.76% month-on-month, reaching 7.44 million barrels per day [1] - Despite the increase in export volume, export revenue from oil supplies decreased by 1.7% to $13.35 billion [1] - In September, Russian oil deliveries rose by 370,000 barrels per day, while oil product supply decreased by 170,000 barrels per day, marking a significant drop in oil product metrics to the lowest level in nearly a decade, primarily due to reduced diesel and fuel oil supplies [1] Export Revenue Analysis - In September, Russian oil export revenue reached $8.96 billion, an increase of approximately $200 million month-on-month [1] - Conversely, oil product export revenue was $4.39 billion, reflecting a decrease of $440 million month-on-month [1] - Compared to September of the previous year, Russian oil export revenue decreased by approximately $720 million [1]

Core Points - Iraq has resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region to Türkiye after a hiatus of over two and a half years, following an interim agreement involving Iraq's Federal Government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil producers [1][2] - The agreement allows for the transport of 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to Türkiye's Ceyhan port, with plans to increase this volume to 230,000 bpd [2][6] - The resumption of exports is expected to alleviate economic pressures in the Kurdistan region, which has been facing salary delays and service cuts [3] Industry Impact - Iraq, as the second-largest oil producer in OPEC, exports approximately 3.4 million barrels per day from its southern ports, and the addition of northern exports is anticipated to enhance overall production capacity [3][4] - The U.S. government has supported the restart of exports, viewing increased supply as a means to potentially lower crude prices [5] - Eight oil companies in Iraqi Kurdistan, which account for over 90% of the region's production, have reached agreements to resume exports under the new deal [5][6] Future Plans - The preliminary plan requires the KRG to deliver at least 230,000 bpd to the State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO), with an additional 50,000 bpd allocated for local use [6] - The involved parties are scheduled to meet within 30 days to discuss settling outstanding debts owed by the KRG to producers [6]

Core Viewpoint - DNO ASA has been instructed to prepare for oil exports through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline starting on 27 September 2025, following agreements among the Federal Government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies [1]. Group 1: Export Operations - DNO will deliver the Kurdistan Regional Government's share of sales from the Tawke license, averaging 38,000 barrels per day, for export [2]. - The foreign contractor group, including DNO and Genel Energy International Limited, will continue selling an average of 30,000 barrels per day to local buyers under existing contracts [2]. - DNO has opted not to engage directly in exports at this time, continuing to sell oil on a cash-and-carry basis at prices in the low USD 30s per barrel [3]. Group 2: Buyer Arrangements - Buyers have established their own arrangements to place oil purchased from DNO into the export pipeline, which supports the larger export project [4]. Group 3: Agreements and Financials - The agreements between the Federal Government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and participating international oil companies will end at year-end, with the first payment expected to be USD 14 per barrel after transportation costs, anticipated in mid-December [5]. - This payment figure will be adjusted in 2026 based on evaluations by a Baghdad-designated consultant [5]. Group 4: Production Expansion - DNO has launched a major production expansion program at the Tawke and Peshkabir fields to replace equipment damaged during July drone attacks, with plans to drill eight wells in 2026 targeting production of 100,000 barrels per day [6]. - The company emphasizes the need for immediate, predictable, and continuous flow of funds to support this ambitious program [6].

Group 1 - The meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump aims to negotiate an end to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, but analysts doubt a lasting solution will be achieved [1][2] - Putin is expected to leverage the meeting to extract concessions from the US, potentially expanding the agenda beyond Ukraine to include geopolitical and economic cooperation, such as energy deals and arms control [2][3] - Analysts suggest that Trump’s reluctance to impose severe sanctions directly on Russia may expose his vulnerabilities during the negotiations, as he has preferred to target Russia's allies instead [3][4] Group 2 - Despite appearing to hold an advantageous position, Putin is under pressure from international sanctions, labor shortages, and high inflation, which may weaken his negotiating stance [5] - The Russian economy is struggling, with significant fiscal deficits exacerbated by declining oil revenues, indicating a fragile economic situation [5] - There are concerns that any agreements reached may come at the expense of Ukraine, particularly if territorial concessions are made, which could lead to an unsustainable resolution [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: August 11, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the absolute price of crude oil dropped to $65 per barrel for Brent. The monthly spreads of crude oil in the three major markets declined slightly. Geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced over the weekend due to potential misunderstandings about the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Iran's plan to block the "US corridor" in the Caucasus. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week, with a slight decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, and changes in gasoline and diesel inventories in different regions. After the decline in crude oil prices, global refinery profits rebounded. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Supply faces a risk of decline due to sanctions on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ crude oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, which supports the monthly spread. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed. It is expected that the absolute price of crude oil will maintain a volatile pattern, and it is predicted to fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production schedule [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From August 4 - 8, 2025, WTI prices decreased from $66.29 to $63.88, Brent from $68.76 to $66.59, and Dubai from $70.64 to $69.22. SC decreased from 514.30 to 489.80. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Ukraine's armed forces attacked Russia's Saratov refinery. Iran vowed to block the "US corridor" in the Caucasus. There might be a misunderstanding about Russia's cease - fire requirements by Trump's envoy. Canada plans to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. OPEC's oil production in July increased by 270,000 barrels per day compared to June. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, and China responded that its energy cooperation with Russia is legitimate. India continues to import Russian oil but the quantity may decline. Russian crude export price discounts have widened [3][4][5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of August 1, US crude exports increased by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 30,000 barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels (a 0.71% decline), the four - week average supply of US crude products increased by 1.61% year - on - year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 235,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 174,000 barrels per day to 5.962 million barrels per day. From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries remained basically unchanged. Chinese refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with corresponding changes in inventories. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries declined [6]. 3.4 Weekly View - The absolute price of crude oil dropped this week, and geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced. Global oil inventories increased, and refinery profits rebounded after the price decline. Near - term fundamentals are volatile. Supply may decline due to sanctions, OPEC+ exports are expected to accelerate, and third - quarter refinery operations are expected to be stronger. The peak of supply - demand fundamentals has passed, and the price is expected to be volatile and fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and non - OPEC production schedules [6].

Core Viewpoint - The resumption of oil exports through the northern pipeline in the Kurdistan region of Iraq is contingent upon whether the relevant companies have received a finalized written agreement [1] Group 1 - The oil and gas company Apikur in the Kurdistan region of Iraq is involved in discussions regarding the resumption of oil exports [1] - The decision to restart oil exports is dependent on the receipt of a definitive written agreement by the involved companies [1]