光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.10 美元至 58.32 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.74%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 1.01 美元至 61.76 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.66%。SC2602 以 428.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.3 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.30%。自元旦期间委内瑞拉局势升级后，油价表现超 | | | | 出市场预期，日内多波动，截至收盘上涨。欧佩克发表声明说， | | | | 欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的 8 个主要产油国决定，维持 2025 年 | | | | 11 月初制定的产量计划，在 2026 年 2 月和 3 月继续暂停增产。 | | | | 为维护石油市场稳定，8 国将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 | | | 原油 | 作为欧佩克创始成员国，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明原油储 | 震荡 | | | 量，达 303 亿桶，约占全球总量的 17%。不过 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major oil-producing countries have decided to maintain their production levels for February and March 2026, following a previously established production plan from November 2025 [3][4]. Group 1: Production Decisions - OPEC and eight major non-OPEC oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, held an online meeting to discuss the international oil market and decided to keep production levels unchanged for February and March 2026 [3]. - The decision to pause production increases is attributed to seasonal factors, maintaining the same output as in December 2025 and January 2026 [3][4]. - The eight countries had previously announced voluntary production cuts of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day in April 2023 and an additional 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023, with these measures being extended multiple times [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the production cuts by OPEC, countries like the United States and Canada have increased their oil production, resulting in OPEC losing some market share [3]. - In March 2025, the eight countries decided to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, 2025, with specific increases in daily production noted for the months following [3].

2025年3月，上述8国决定自同年4月1日起逐步增加原油产量。5月、6月和7月日均增产41.1万桶，8月日 均增产54.8万桶，9月日均增产54.7万桶，10月、11月和12月日均增产13.7万桶。 2025年11月，欧佩克发表声明说，8国决定在2026年1月、2月和3月暂停增产步伐，产量与2025年12月保 持相同。 （文章来源：新华社） 声明说，由于季节性因素，上述国家决定在2026年2月和3月暂停增产步伐，产量与2025年12月及2026年 1月保持相同。 声明还说，为维护石油市场稳定，8国将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 上述8国2023年4月宣布日均约165万桶原油的自愿减产措施，并于2023年11月再次宣布日均220万桶原油 的额外自愿减产措施。此后，这两大减产措施多次延期。但在此期间，美国、加拿大等国原油产量增 加，导致欧佩克失去部分市场份额。 新华财经维也纳1月4日电（记者孟凡宇）石油输出国组织（欧佩克）4日发表声明说，欧佩克和非欧佩 克产油国中的8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增 产。 沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威 ...

主要产油国宣布维持明年头三个月暂停增产计划。 石油输出国组织（欧佩克）11月30日发表声明说，欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的8个主 要产油国决定，维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年头三个月暂停增产。 沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和 阿曼的代表当天举行线上会议，讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 来源：央视新闻客户端 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 编辑丨闫志强 声明说，由于季节性因素，上述国家决定 在2026年1月、2月和3月暂停增产步伐，产量 与2025年12月保持相同。 声明还说，当前全球经济预期相对平稳，石油市场基本面稳健。同时，为维护石油市场稳 定，8国将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 上述8国2023年4月宣布日均约165万桶原油的自愿减产措施，并于2023年11月再次宣 布日均220万桶原油的额外自愿减产措施。此后，这两大减产措施多次延期。但在此期 间，美国、加拿大等国原油产量增加，导致欧佩克失去部分市场份额。 今年3月，上述8国决定自4月1日起逐步增加原油产量。5月、6月和7月日均增产41.1万 桶， ...

上述八个国家于2023年11月宣布日均220万桶原油的自愿减产措施，此后减产措施多次延期，直至延长 至2025年3月底。在此期间，美国、加拿大等国原油产量增加，导致欧佩克失去部分市场份额。 今年3月，上述八个国家决定自4月1日起逐步增加原油产量。5月、6月和7月日均增产41.1万桶，8月日 均增产54.8万桶，9月日均增产54.7万桶，10月、11月和12月日均增产13.7万桶。 此外，欧佩克还宣布，第41次欧佩克成员国与非欧佩克产油国组成的"欧佩克+"部长级会议将于2026年6 月7日举行。 八个主要产油国宣布：维持明年前三个月暂停增产计划 中新社北京12月1日电 维也纳消息：当地时间11月30日，石油输出国组织(欧佩克)通过官方网站发表声 明称，欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的8个主要产油国决定，维持今年11月初制订的产量计划，即在2026 年第一季度暂停增产。 综合路透社等媒体消息，11月30日，沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特、哈萨 克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼八个国家通过线上会议的形式，重点讨论了国际石油市场形势及前景。 声明称，由于季节性因素，八个与会国家重申其2026年前3个月暂停增产 ...

Group 1 - OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, pausing any increase in production for the first three months of 2026 [1] - The eight countries involved include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, which will keep production levels the same as December 2025 due to seasonal factors [1] - The current global economic outlook is relatively stable, and the oil market fundamentals are robust, allowing for flexible adjustments in production based on market conditions [1] Group 2 - In April 2023, the eight countries announced a voluntary production cut of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, followed by an additional voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023 [1] - Despite these cuts, oil production in the US and Canada has increased, leading to a loss of market share for OPEC [1] - From April 1, 2023, the eight countries decided to gradually increase oil production, with daily increases of 411,000 barrels in May, 548,000 barrels in June, 547,000 barrels in September, and 137,000 barrels in October, November, and December [1]

今年3月，上述8国决定自4月1日起逐步增加原油产量。5月、6月和7月日均增产41.1万桶，8月日均增产 54.8万桶，9月日均增产54.7万桶，10月、11月和12月日均增产13.7万桶。 来源：新华社客户端 （文章来源：上海证券报） 沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当 天举行线上会议，讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 声明说，由于季节性因素，上述国家决定在2026年1月、2月和3月暂停增产步伐，产量与2025年12月保 持相同。 声明还说，当前全球经济预期相对平稳，石油市场基本面稳健。同时，为维护石油市场稳定，8国将根 据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 上述8国2023年4月宣布日均约165万桶原油的自愿减产措施，并于2023年11月再次宣布日均220万桶原油 的额外自愿减产措施。此后，这两大减产措施多次延期。但在此期间，美国、加拿大等国原油产量增 加，导致欧佩克失去部分市场份额。 主要产油国宣布维持明年头三个月暂停增产计划 新华社维也纳11月30日电石油输出国组织（欧佩克）11月30日发表声明说，欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中 的8个主要产油国决定，维持11月初制 ...

新华社维也纳11月30日电（记者孟凡宇）石油输出国组织（欧佩克）11月30日发表声明说，欧佩克和非 欧佩克产油国中的8个主要产油国决定，维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年头三个月暂停增产。 声明还说，当前全球经济预期相对平稳，石油市场基本面稳健。同时，为维护石油市场稳定，8国将根 据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 上述8国2023年4月宣布日均约165万桶原油的自愿减产措施，并于2023年11月再次宣布日均220万桶原油 的额外自愿减产措施。此后，这两大减产措施多次延期。但在此期间，美国、加拿大等国原油产量增 加，导致欧佩克失去部分市场份额。 今年3月，上述8国决定自4月1日起逐步增加原油产量。5月、6月和7月日均增产41.1万桶，8月日均增产 54.8万桶，9月日均增产54.7万桶，10月、11月和12月日均增产13.7万桶。（完） 沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当 天举行线上会议，讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 声明说，由于季节性因素，上述国家决定在2026年1月、2月和3月暂停增产步伐，产量与2025年12月保 持相同。 ...

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17 cents to settle at $59.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.29%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 14 cents to settle at $63.38 per barrel, a decline of 0.22%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 1.32% at 454 yuan per barrel [1] - In October 2025, Russia's oil and gas revenues decreased by 26.6% year-on-year from 1.2118 trillion rubles (about $14.9 billion) in the same period last year to 888.6 billion rubles (about $10.9 billion), but increased by 52.6% from the previous month. From January to October, oil and gas revenues decreased by 21.4% to 7.498 trillion rubles (about $92.5 billion) [1] - Nigerian media reported that Nigeria has lost up to $300 billion due to oil theft. The Senate committee investigating the losses recommended that the government set up a special court to prosecute oil thieves and use state funds to reduce pipeline damage [1] - India's largest private refiner, Reliance Industries, is seeking to sell some Middle Eastern oil cargoes to domestic and international buyers. It bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East last month after US sanctions on Russia [1] - The CEO of energy giant Gunvor said the oil market has become more stable, and oil and gas will continue to grow. Sanctions on Russia and Iran are causing record-high oil storage on ships, preventing a global supply glut [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - There are differences in views on seaborne cargoes. According to Kpler data, more than half of the current seaborne cargo is compliant crude oil, mainly from the Middle East, the US, and Latin America. Due to high freight and demand issues, the physical premium of crude oil from West Africa and Latin America continues to decline, which may lead to a contango structure in the near-term forward curve and stimulate onshore and floating storage [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish configuration in the medium term. The strategy is to buy far-month contracts and sell near-month contracts to short the Brent spread [3] Group 4: Figures - Figures include the price trend of crude oil futures, the comparison of crude oil futures and domestic refined oil prices, the comparison of crude oil futures and US Treasury yields, the comparison of crude oil futures and copper prices, the comparison of crude oil futures and gold prices, and China's refinery profits [5]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC and eight major oil-producing countries have decided to maintain an increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, while pausing the increase plan for the first three months of 2026 [1] Group 1: Production Adjustments - The eight countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, held an online meeting to discuss the international oil market situation and outlook [1] - The decision to adjust production in December is a response to previous voluntary production cuts, with the aim of stabilizing the oil market [1] - Due to seasonal factors, these countries will pause the increase in production in January, February, and March 2026, maintaining the same output as in December 2025 [1] Group 2: Historical Context - In April 2023, the eight countries announced a voluntary production cut of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, followed by an additional voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023 [1] - These production cuts have been extended multiple times, but during this period, oil production in the US and Canada has increased, resulting in OPEC losing some market share [1] - Starting from April 1, 2023, the eight countries decided to gradually increase oil production, with increases of 411,000 barrels per day in May, 548,000 barrels per day in June, 547,000 barrels per day in July, and 137,000 barrels per day in October and November [1]