1、德国总理默茨24日表示，预计美国提出的乌克兰和平计划不会在27日前得到最终确定。此前，美国总统特朗普称，希望乌克兰最晚本月27日接受该计 划，有可能会视情况延后，但27日是一个"合适"的日期。默茨表示，未来几天不会出现突破性进展，而只会取得小规模进展，因为乌克兰的和平不会一蹴而 就。默茨表示，在23日举行的乌克兰问题日内瓦会谈期间，美国提出的和平计划进行了很多修改，他强调，任何影响欧洲利益的决定都不应在没有欧盟参与 的情况下做出。 2、摩根大通大宗商品研究主管娜塔莎·卡内娃在一份报告中指出，如果不进行干预，全球石油市场明年将面临每日280万桶的过剩，2027年则面临每日270万 桶的过剩。"在这些条件下，布伦特油价可能在2026年跌破60美元，到第四季度跌至低50多美元，并以每桶40多美元的水平结束全年"。"展望2027年，随着 累积过剩推动布伦特原油平均价格降至每桶42美元，并在年底前跌至每桶30多美元""市场失衡所暗示的幅度在实践中不太可能完全实现。预计供需双方都将 进行调整"。"再平衡的最大负担几乎肯定会落在供应端"。 3、德勤调查显示，美国消费者预计在"黑五和网一"期间减少消费支出，主要受生活成本 ...

金十数据9月17日讯，16日，俄罗斯国防部发布战报称，过去一天，俄军多个集团军继续在苏梅、哈尔科夫、顿涅茨 克、扎波罗热等方向打击乌军。俄军摧毁了乌军燃料库、西方供乌武器装备后勤配送中心和远程无人机储存和发射点。 乌克兰武装部队总参谋部同一天称，16日凌晨乌克兰特种作战部队与国防军其他单位协同作战，再次对俄罗斯萨拉托夫 州炼油厂实施精确打击。目标区域发生爆炸及火灾，具体情况仍在核实中。乌军称这一炼油厂为俄军作战供应石油产 品。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/17 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/10 | 63.67 | 6 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Group 2: Price Data Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price Changes from September 9 - 15, 2025**: WTI increased by $0.61 to $63.30, BRENT by $0.45 to $67.44, DUBAI by $0.54 to $70.74 [3] - **Other Products**: SC increased by 12.80 to 488.10, OMAN decreased by 0.39 to 69.71 [3] Other Oil - Related Products - **Price Changes**: Japan Naphtha CFR - related data had a 6.70 change in the differential with BRT, Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST had a - 0.85 change in its differential [3] Group 3: News and Events Conflict - Related - Israel destroyed Gaza's tallest residential building, carried out large - scale night air strikes on Gaza City, and attacked a Hezbollah headquarters in Lebanon [3] - Israel's military launched a ground offensive on Gaza City on Monday, aiming to eliminate Hamas [3] Iran - Related - Iran is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency to pass a resolution condemning the US - Israeli nuclear facility attack in June [3][5] - Iran's top nuclear official warned of chaos if a related proposal is vetoed [5] Other News - Goldman Sachs said that due to strong supply growth, oil prices may fall further next year, but multiple factors could lead to an earlier rebound [5] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals - **US Data (09/05 Week)**: US crude exports decreased by 113.9万桶/日 to 274.5万桶/日, domestic production increased by 7.2万桶 to 1349.5万桶/日 [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) increased by 393.9万桶 to 4.25 billion barrels, SPR inventory increased by 51.4万桶 to 4.052 billion barrels [5] - **Domestic China (9/5 - 9/11)**: Mainland refinery operating rates had minor fluctuations, Shandong refinery operating rates rose slightly, domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory increased [5] Group 5: Weekly View - **Price Movement**: Oil prices rose this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news [5] - **Fundamentals**: The global oil market is in a state of inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude and refined product inventories rising, and global refinery profits falling [5][6] - **Forecast**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price central level is expected to fall to $55 - 60/barrel, and the mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]