格隆汇12月5日｜机构调查显示，欧佩克上月原油产量保持稳定，该组织在全球石油市场疲软之际维持 谨慎战略。根据调查，欧佩克在11月的平均日产量略高于2900万桶，与上月基本持平。尽管欧佩克及其 合作伙伴同意在今年最后三个月继续恢复石油产量，但在前几个月产量激增后，他们选择大幅放缓增产 步伐。全球石油市场正显现过剩迹象，许多预测机构预计明年过剩规模将扩大，因为欧佩克及其竞争对 手的供应增速将超过消费增长。调查显示，阿联酋11月将日产量提高了6万桶，达到每日361万桶，显著 高于其欧佩克+配额。但阿联酋当月的小幅增产被伊朗、加蓬和沙特阿拉伯等数个欧佩克成员国的微幅 减产所抵消。 ...

澳新银行：对俄乌持续相互攻击能源基础设施的担忧，将使布伦特原油价格维持在每桶60美元以上。随 着2026年供应超过需求，将石油市场推向过剩，布伦特原油价格的进一步上涨空间将受到限制。炼油厂 开工率降低，再加上OPEC+产量增加，全球原油库存将会增加，这可能会使2026年上半年的油价保持 在每桶65美元以下。2026年下半年全球经济复苏可能会支撑油价，随后油价将朝着每桶70美元迈进。 ...

Economic Information - China's textile and apparel exports from January to October 2025 totaled $243.95 billion, a decrease of 1.6%. In October alone, exports were $22.26 billion, down 12.6% [2][6] - The Shanghai Cyberspace Administration has launched a special enforcement action to address the misuse of AI technologies, focusing on compliance to support the high-quality development of emerging industries. During this action, 54 apps utilizing generative AI technology were removed from local app stores [2][6] Company Alerts - ST Changyuan's chairman Qiao Wenjian has been detained for suspected job-related violations [4] - Saiwei Electronics' second-largest shareholder, the Big Fund, reduced its stake by 1.07% from September 23 to November 24 [4][6] - Yidian Tianxia's second-largest shareholder, Ningbo Zhongdianyi Enterprise Management Partnership, sold shares during a period of stock volatility [4][6] - Wireless Media's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4.70% [4][6] - Huifa Foods' shareholder Hui Xiping intends to reduce his stake by up to 3% [4][6] - Dongfang Ocean's shareholder Guoyuan Fund plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [4][6] - Other companies with shareholders planning to reduce stakes include Dinglong Co., Xinghui Entertainment, Zhongke Information, and others, with reductions ranging from 0.04% to 4.70% [4][6] Overseas Alerts - JPMorgan's commodity research head, Natasha Kaneva, indicated that without intervention, the global oil market will face a surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day next year, and 2.7 million barrels per day by 2027. Under these conditions, Brent crude oil prices could drop below $60 per barrel in 2026 and end the year at over $40 per barrel. By 2027, the average price may fall to $42 per barrel, potentially dropping to the $30 range by year-end [3][6] - German Chancellor Merz stated that the U.S. proposed peace plan for Ukraine is unlikely to be finalized by the 27th, with only small-scale progress expected in the coming days [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices closed higher, and the absolute price fluctuations intensified due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy, urging G7 allies to impose a 100% tariff on the purchase of Russian oil. Fundamentally, the global oil market is building inventories, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined products inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the base case, the crude oil balance will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, and the fundamental situation will turn to the off - season. The medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in Q4 is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential to disrupt Russian supply [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - On the 16th, Russia reported multi - directional attacks on the Ukrainian army, while Ukraine reported an attack on a Russian refinery [3]. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 12 was - 3.42 million barrels, better than the expected - 1.565 million barrels and a decrease from the previous value of 1.25 million barrels [4]. - Transneft denied reports of restricting oil intake from producers, calling them "false news" [4]. - Transneft issued a production cut warning as its system's oil storage capacity is limited due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports and refineries [4]. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels (a 0.94% increase), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.888 million barrels per day (a 1.97% increase year - on - year), the SPR inventory increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day [4]. - From September 5 - 11, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic production of gasoline and diesel increased, and inventories of both also increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [4]. Weekly Viewpoints - The oil price closed higher this week, with intensified absolute price fluctuations due to geopolitical news. The US proposed sanctions on Russian energy, and the global oil market is building inventories. The crude oil balance is expected to be in surplus in Q4 2025 and 2026. The refinery maintenance in October is expected to exceed previous years, and the fundamental situation will turn to the off - season. The absolute price center in Q4 is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russian and Iranian supply [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Group 2: Price Data Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price Changes from September 9 - 15, 2025**: WTI increased by $0.61 to $63.30, BRENT by $0.45 to $67.44, DUBAI by $0.54 to $70.74 [3] - **Other Products**: SC increased by 12.80 to 488.10, OMAN decreased by 0.39 to 69.71 [3] Other Oil - Related Products - **Price Changes**: Japan Naphtha CFR - related data had a 6.70 change in the differential with BRT, Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST had a - 0.85 change in its differential [3] Group 3: News and Events Conflict - Related - Israel destroyed Gaza's tallest residential building, carried out large - scale night air strikes on Gaza City, and attacked a Hezbollah headquarters in Lebanon [3] - Israel's military launched a ground offensive on Gaza City on Monday, aiming to eliminate Hamas [3] Iran - Related - Iran is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency to pass a resolution condemning the US - Israeli nuclear facility attack in June [3][5] - Iran's top nuclear official warned of chaos if a related proposal is vetoed [5] Other News - Goldman Sachs said that due to strong supply growth, oil prices may fall further next year, but multiple factors could lead to an earlier rebound [5] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals - **US Data (09/05 Week)**: US crude exports decreased by 113.9万桶/日 to 274.5万桶/日, domestic production increased by 7.2万桶 to 1349.5万桶/日 [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) increased by 393.9万桶 to 4.25 billion barrels, SPR inventory increased by 51.4万桶 to 4.052 billion barrels [5] - **Domestic China (9/5 - 9/11)**: Mainland refinery operating rates had minor fluctuations, Shandong refinery operating rates rose slightly, domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory increased [5] Group 5: Weekly View - **Price Movement**: Oil prices rose this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news [5] - **Fundamentals**: The global oil market is in a state of inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude and refined product inventories rising, and global refinery profits falling [5][6] - **Forecast**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price central level is expected to fall to $55 - 60/barrel, and the mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]