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关注两场谈判进展,油价低位上涨
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 12:31
Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday (May 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.19 - $63.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.38 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.85 - $66 [1] - According to a news report from a Middle - Eastern country, Khamenei doubts whether the nuclear negotiation with the US can reach an agreement as Iran is reviewing the proposal for the fifth - round negotiation. If the agreement is reached and US sanctions on Iran are relaxed, the agreement between the two countries will increase Iran's daily oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels [2] - The International Energy Agency released its May "Oil Market Monthly Report" on Thursday. The report believes that economic headwinds and record - high sales of electric vehicles will reduce the average daily global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels for the rest of 2025. At this rate, the average daily global oil demand growth will slow down from 990,000 barrels in the first quarter of this year [3] - Currently, the progress of the two negotiations is poor, and the trade tensions are temporarily relieved, so international oil prices are temporarily supported. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited, mainly due to Trump's uncertain tariff policy affecting the economy and OPEC+ maintaining the production - increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, the pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. The oil consumption increments of major consumer countries during the summer oil consumption peak season may be affected by factors such as the sluggish economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, and oil prices will still be under pressure [4]